[extropy-chat] what is probability?
gts_2000 at yahoo.com
Mon Jan 15 18:08:23 UTC 2007
On Mon, 15 Jan 2007 12:56:38 -0500, Russell Wallace
<russell.wallace at gmail.com> wrote:
> Not if you wanted an answer that reflected reality, you wouldn't. Rather
> than just make up a number like .5 for no reason, at the very least you
> can start with the results of the last election, which give actual data
> on the probability of a randomly selected person being a member of party
> A vs B.
You missed one of my starting assumptions: I wrote that we're conducting
this political research "at a time in which the entire country is in
political turmoil such that not even national statistics can be relied
upon for priors."
> You'd never actually rely on the principle of indifference.
I'm not sure I really want to argue with you that there is any time in
which one absolutely must rely on the PI, because like you I am inclined
to agree with those who would like to dispel the belief that the PI is a
valid principle of logic.
However others here are not so inclined, so I've been playing the devil's
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