[extropy-chat] what is probability?

gts gts_2000 at yahoo.com
Mon Jan 15 18:08:23 UTC 2007

On Mon, 15 Jan 2007 12:56:38 -0500, Russell Wallace  
<russell.wallace at gmail.com> wrote:

> Not if you wanted an answer that reflected reality, you wouldn't. Rather
> than just make up a number like .5 for no reason, at the very least you  
> can start with the results of the last election, which give actual data  
> on the probability of a randomly selected person being a member of party  
> A vs B.

You missed one of my starting assumptions: I wrote that we're conducting  
this political research "at a time in which the entire country is in  
political turmoil such that not even national statistics can be relied  
upon for priors."

> You'd never actually rely on the principle of  indifference.

I'm not sure I really want to argue with you that there is any time in  
which one absolutely must rely on the PI, because like you I am inclined  
to agree with those who would like to dispel the belief that the PI is a  
valid principle of logic.

However others here are not so inclined, so I've been playing the devil's  


More information about the extropy-chat mailing list