[extropy-chat] what is probability?
gts_2000 at yahoo.com
Tue Jan 16 18:20:55 UTC 2007
On Tue, 16 Jan 2007 12:23:35 -0500, Benjamin Goertzel <ben at goertzel.org>
> How does this help with the PI and so forth? Not at all as far as I
> can tell, it's just the only work I know that formally addresses the
> issue of defining randomness ;-)
In 1928, Richard von Mises published _Probability, Statistics and Truth_,
which pretty much started the frequentist revolution in probability.
In that book he developed two supposed 'empirical laws of probability':
The first law was not entirely original to him (he was following after
Venn, famous for Venn diagrams, and after someone else whose name I don't
recall). This first law is the law that relative frequencies converge as
the number observations increase. As everyone knows, if you flip a fair
coin enough times the % of heads will converge on 50% to any degree of
Von Mises' second law was his own 'discovery': it is about the definition
and meaning of randomness, what I have called here "The Law of Excluded
Principle of the Impossibility of a Gambling System
I don't think the frequency definition of "random" has changed very much
since then, though Popper and some other people have attempted to improve
on von Mises' theories.
More information about the extropy-chat