[extropy-chat] System dynamics (World dynamics)
hkhenson at rogers.com
Wed Jan 17 03:11:14 UTC 2007
Limits to Growth was exceptionally influential, particularly in predicting
a bleak future.
I suspect the model was "hacked" to present a more dramatic and immediate
impact. This invalidated the model in many people's minds. (I can't find
my copy so am not able to put dates on it.)
Friend of mine, Peter Vajk, got a copy of the FORTRAN code after a great
deal of trouble. He was interested in working in the effects of non
polluting SPS energy to see how that would affect the model.
In going through the code he found a completely unexplained factor of 4
buried in the model that when it was taken out, (as I remember) pushed the
crisis predictions considerably into the future. However, those decades
have flown by and the time of crisis is much closer now. (Absent major
technological advances of course.) It looks like energy, particularly oil,
is going to be the most serious problem.
There is a quite interesting analysis here:
I suspect most of those on this list were not even born in 1972.
The solution to the energy crisis at least has been around almost that
long, solar power from space.
There are two ways to accomplish that (rockets are just too
inefficient.) Get the material from space, the moon or asteroids, or lift
it with a mechanical space elevator.
The space elevator is of course an early nanotechnology product, depending
on carbon nanotubes.
Still, my bet is we are in for some rough times in the next 15-20 years.
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