[extropy-chat] what is probability?

Rafal Smigrodzki rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com
Wed Jan 17 16:55:35 UTC 2007

On 1/16/07, gts <gts_2000 at yahoo.com> wrote:

> As de Finneti put it:
> "If I admit the possibility of modifying my probability judgment in
> response to observation of frequencies; it means that - by definition - my
> judgment of the probability of one trial is not independent of the
> outcomes of the others."
> This is also a weakness of the interpretation in my opinion. To my mind it
> is a bit absurd to think that coin-flips are not independent of one
> another.

### But what do you mean by "independent"? Aren't we going here in
some sort of infinite linguistic/conceptual regress, shifting the buck
from "probability" to "randomness" to "independence" :)

To me it's clear that coin flips are not really independent, since by
observing them you may learn how to predict future flips of the same


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