[extropy-chat] what is probability?
gts
gts_2000 at yahoo.com
Wed Jan 17 19:49:30 UTC 2007
Rafal, some clarification...
>> ### Now, is that true? Let's say you have an unfair coin, which 99% of
>> the time drops heads and only 1 % tails. Would you call the results
>> of tossing it a "completely random sequence"?
I replied:
> Yes, because the tosses are independent and no gambling system could be
> devised that would result in a greater than 99% win rate.
I think I should qualify my reply...
Yes, I would call it a completely random sequence, because the tosses are
independent and no gambling system could be devised that would result in a
greater than 99% win rate; that is, it completely satisfies the conditions
of randomness and so it is completely random.
But I realize now that I have been sloppy; I should be clear that
"completely random sequence" does not mean the same thing as "maximally
disordered sequence", which I think now is what you thought I meant.
You're right that a 99% weighted coin would generate a less disordered
sequence (and in that sense might be said to be "less random"), even I am
also right to say the sequence is still "completely random" in the sense
that it meets the principle of excluded gambling systems.
-gts
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