[extropy-chat] Coin Flip Paradox
gts_2000 at yahoo.com
Wed Jan 31 16:03:35 UTC 2007
On Wed, 31 Jan 2007 10:32:48 -0500, Mike Dougherty <msd001 at gmail.com>
> So are you saying that I should inspect the coin to determine that it
> is fair?...
Yes, but I wouldn't get too hung up about the coin in my story. It's just
a convenient prop for the sake of illustration, and maybe not the best
prop at that.
The point is that the principle of indifference gives one the permission
to assign imaginary probabilities to events when one is actually in a
state of total and complete ignorance about the true probabilities of
those events. Is that logical? I don't think so.
As I wrote yesterday, the "principle" is in my opinion not really a
logical principle at all. It is rather a wild-assed conjecture made in the
face of complete ignorance about the true state of nature. Granted this
wild-assed conjecture is less wild than some alternatives one could make
in ignorance, (if one is going to make this unjustified logical leap then
it certainly makes sense to assign the probabilities equally rather than
unequally), but it's a wild-eyed conjecture nonetheless.
More information about the extropy-chat