[ExI] who should white shoot?

[spike]

Excellent!  Thanks I need to check  

> ... On Behalf Of The Avantguardian
...
> 
> Congratulations, Spike, you have rediscovered Bayes Law. The 
> good reverend would be pleased. :-)

None could be more pleased than I.
 
> ...
> 
> I have been meaning to get back to you on that, Spike. I got 
> essentially the same results as you except your 7/8 should be 
> 6/7. And the probability of White winning if Brown goes first 
> is 1/7 not 1/8.

Thanks I was suspicious of that 1/8 result because I did it hurriedly and
under pressure, in my green book at work (blush).  {8^]  If my green book
ever becomes an historical document with scores of young researchers combing
it for ideas, they will be most puzzled by that page.  {8^D

I will go back Tuesday and look for my mistake on the 1/8 result.

spike