[ExI] Oil will never run out
sjatkins at mac.com
Mon Jun 30 07:21:05 UTC 2008
On Jun 28, 2008, at 11:43 PM, Lee Corbin wrote:
> Kevin writes
>> By 2039 when some suggest we'll be out of oil,
>> people most companies won't want to waste
>> the money it costs to drill, pump, transport, and
>> refine the "real" stuff.
> Would someone mind explaining to me how this
> can *ever* happen? That is, short of a dictatorship
> forcing the price of oil to remain very low, and forcing
> people to continue to use it up, just how is it that the
> price wouldn't necessarily rise the way that any other
> desired item does in a free market?
> Now this is quite apart from the serious contention
> by a number of people that oil and natural gas are
> produced abiotically. I posted this link before:
That would be really useful if we could produce oil using the same or
a similar process on a massive scale. How we can get more of it or a
good enough equivalent as the original becomes more troublesome to
find and exploit in sufficient quantities is the primary question.
> And the wikipedia article continues to become more and
> more elaborate (remaining quite balanced, as expected):
> So if y'all have even heard of this debate, it might be
> polite, when you're discussing "peak oil" or "when the
> last drop of oil on Earth is used up", to parenthetically
> mention "(pace the abiotic theory)" or something.
I don't see that it is terribly relevant. The oil available with
current exploration and drilling methods has peaked in many previously
exploited areas and the number of new large discoveries has not kept
up with demand. It is logical to surmise that it will peak in areas
it has not yet done so eventually. The abiotic theory would only have
strong bearing if that theory predicts (successfully) that it is
produced so rapidly that we will have no problem indefinitely finding
new and progressively larger supply.
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