[ExI] Next Decade May See No Warming

[Lee Corbin]

Damien writes

> At 07:53 PM 5/1/2008 -0700, Lee asked me:
> 
>>what odds would you give, if you
>>were someone who gave odds and were someone who's
>>a betting man, that average temperatures 30 years from
>>now will be warmer than they are now?

So despite all my qualifications, you're not prepared to
give any estimate whatsoever of the odds? How odd.

> On the available evidence I've seen, and in the absence of heroic 
> remediation measures, I feel very confident indeed that this will be 
> the case.

I see. In other  words, you think that there is a 70% chance
that 30 years from now temperatures will be higher?

> But my point was that *so, too, is the guy you quoted, 
> apparently in the belief that he was saying the contrary!*

I understood your point. Did you understand mine, namely
that there is *huge* uncertainty in these models?  Also, did
you understand that massive global expenditures by 
governments are at this time premature?  (Now we see
that the American subsidies to ethanol production are
resulting in food riots around the world. It's obvious to
me that if there is a crisis, it's too much concerted government
action and government planning.)

And all this is besides the point that since 1986, when the
ballyhoo began, it has always seemed likely to me that
global warming will be beneficial. Rafal presented quite 
excellent arguments.

Lee