[ExI] who should white shoot?

The Avantguardian avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com
Fri Sep 5 08:30:00 UTC 2008


The answer to the Russian roulette puzzle is below. I made it so you have to
scroll down to see it, just in case you're still working on it.
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*SPOILER ALERT*
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One can use the same Bayesian method I used before to figure out the
probability of winning Russian roulette. If there are only two people, the
probability of survival is 5/11 for the person who goes first and 6/11 for the
person who goes second no matter how many rounds end in a draw. Of course this
is assuming that the cylinder is spun before each person takes his turn. If the
cylinder is simply allowed to advance one chamber per go, then obviously the
game can only go for a maximum of three rounds. But the overall probability of
winning should remain the same.

Generally, if one must play Russian roulette, it's advantageous to go last. So
the answer to the puzzle is that Mr. White should pay Mr. Pink the $3 million.
That's a lot of money for a mere 1/11 of an advantage but if Mr. White
survives, he will get it back and Mr. Pink's share of the loot too. If Mr.
White doesn't, Mr. Pink would have gotten the $3 million anyway since Mr. White
wouldn't have much use for it. 


Stuart LaForge

"A portion of mankind take pride in their vices and pursue their purpose; many more waver between doing what is right and complying with what is wrong." - Horace


      



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