[ExI] [wta-talk] Richard Lindzen on climate hysteria

[Alfio Puglisi]

On Sat, Aug 1, 2009 at 6:12 AM, Max More<max at maxmore.com> wrote:

> P.S. Can a backer of the "consensus" view please point me to a good
> explanation of the fact that human emissions of greenhouse gases has
> continued unabated, and yet there has been zero global warming over the last
> 10 to 11 years? I would appreciate it. (By a "good explanation", I mean one
> that doesn't have to resort to something like Ptolemeic epicycles.)

I find this quite clear:
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/01/15/what-if/

The observed warming trend for the last ~50 years is around
0.17°C/year. There is also a scatter due to natural variability (El
Nino, etc), which has an amplitude of  0.1 - 0.2°C. Therefore it is
entirely possible that in a 10 years period the warming signal may be
masked by the natural variation.

Using 10 years averages (1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009 and so on)
reduces the variability by sqrt(10) = about 3, and allows the warming
signal to come out quite clearly, as shown in the second graph of
tamino's post. Note how the point for the current decade is way higher
than the one for the 1990s.

Alfio