[ExI] atheism

[David]

On Wed, 16 Dec 2009 21:31:08 +1100
Stathis Papaioannou <stathisp at gmail.com> wrote:

> 2009/12/16 David <deimtee at optusnet.com.au>:
> 
> > You are conflating two different probabilities here. There is a low
> > probability of an asteroid impact per time unit.  This probability
> > increases as the time considered gets longer.
> > The probability that God exists (one in a thousand in Dawkin's
> > argument) is not time dependent. Either he exists or he does not,
> > and the duration of the observing period makes no difference.
> 
> One in a thousand chance of God existing seems awfully generous! If
> the probability is the same for each one of all possible gods then
> that would mean it is almost certain that at least one god exists.
> 
> 

Actually, I was using John Clark's quote:

> Then obviously you are not checking in the right place. Richard
> Dawkins is certainly an Atheist and yet he said that on a scale of 1
> to 10, 1 being certain God exists and 10 being certain he does not,
> would place himself at about 9.99. An Atheist is someone who thinks
> the existence of God is such a remote possibility that it's silly for
> the idea to play any part in your life.  

I have no idea what odds Dawkins would really give, or whether that
referred to any god at all.  I agree that p = 0.001 is a ridiculously
high figure, but the point was that unlike the probability of an
asteroid impact, it doesn't change over time.

-David.