[ExI] israelis defeat physics

[spike]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org 
> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of 
> Jeff Davis
....
> >
> > Recall that Iraq was facing a war with Iran in 2002.
> 
> What?  I mean .......WHAT!!!???  I've been following this 
> business quite closely since day one and this is the first 
> I've heard of this alleged 2002 imminent war between Iran and 
> Iraq...


>From Piro's interview with Scott Pelley:

"And what did he tell you about how his weapons of mass destruction had been
destroyed?" Pelley asks.

"He told me that most of the WMD had been destroyed by the U.N. inspectors
in the '90s. And those that hadn't been destroyed by the inspectors were
unilaterally destroyed by Iraq," Piro says.

"So why keep the secret? Why put your nation at risk, why put your own life
at risk to maintain this charade?" Pelley asks.

"It was very important for him to project that because that was what kept
him, in his mind, in power. That capability kept the Iranians away. It kept
them from reinvading Iraq," Piro says.

Before his wars with America, Saddam had fought a ruinous eight year war
with Iran and it was Iran he still feared the most.

"He believed that he couldn't survive without the perception that he had
weapons of mass destruction?" Pelley asks.

"Absolutely," Piro says.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/24/60minutes/main3749494_page4.shtml


> 
> > That is why Saddam
> > tried to convince the world that he had nukes, so that it 
> >would scare Iran  away from attacking.
> 
> So let me get this straight:The aformentioned unsourced 
> fantastical assertion of a looming-in-2002 war between Iran 
> and Iraq, has Iran in the aggressor's role?  Source it, bro...

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/24/60minutes/main3749494_page4.shtml

I do find curious Piro's comment "That capability kept the Iranians away. It
kept them from reinvading Iraq..."  As I recall it was Iraq that invaded
Iran in 1980, not the other way around.
 
 
> Otherwise it has to be filed as the fever dream of a 
> fact-indifferent neo-con Iran basher...

Or the fever dream of George Tenet, the fact-indifferent neo-con basher.
Actually Tenet is an odd mixture of neo-con basher, Clinton basher and
praiser (in that order), occasional self basher, Bush 43 faint praiser and
basher (in that order), but in agreement with Piro.  Make of his book
whatever you will.  I found it interesting but don't recommend it.  I don't
have Tenet's book in soft copy, so it is much more difficult to give
references. 
 
> > Saddam bet Bush was
> > bluffing, Bush bet Saddam wasn't.  Both were wrong.  
> (Source: Tenet, Center of the Storm...
> 
> George Tenet.  Now there's a guy with credibility.  He 
> presides over the CIA's failure re 9/11, and then becomes 
> Bush's bitch out of gratitude for not being held to account...

Jeff this sounds like a comment by one who did not read Center of the Storm.
Tenet was held to account.  I am not actually recommending the book, and I
agree it has some serious credibility problems, but not for being Bush's
bitch.  Tenet has plenty of harsh words for Bush, altho moreso for Doug
Feith, Condi Rice, and especially Richard Perle (the commentary on the first
page of Center, which turned out to be provably false, and for which Tenet
has never apologized, retracted or offered explanation.)  

He also has some very damaging commentary on Bill Clinton, which is
surprising, altho he seems to otherwise mostly defend Clinton's overall
performance.  Tenet makes the devastatingly serious accusation that Clinton
ripple fired cruise missiles at nothing of importance in order to distract
the media from Monica Lewinski (Center, p.116)  I find this hard to believe,
but Tenet offers dates of attacks and the very closely corresponding dates
of the major Lewinski revelations.  But Tenet thinks Clinton is a good guy. 

Here is the quote on Saddam from Tenet's book which predated Piro's 60
Minutes report:

"We thought it implausible that someone like Saddam would risk the
destruction of his regime over noncompliance with UN resolutions. What we
did not account for was the mind-set never to show weakness in a very
dangerous neighborhood—particularly in regard to a growing Iranian military
capability. Relying on secrets by themselves, divorced from deep knowledge
of cultural mind-sets and history, will take you only so far." Tenet,
p.45-46

Jeff did you read Tenet's Center of the Storm?

....
> 
> I have to apologize.  I was taking you seriously.  Obviously 
> you've been talking about some Fox made-for-tv movie, right?...

Well, actually cBS.  And it was 60 Minutes, a made-for-TV mock news program:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/24/60minutes/main3749494_page5.shtml

Piro's account is also supported by Charles Duelfer, the former weapons
inspector who headed the Iraq Survey Group.

 
>  Excuse me, please.  I should have read through the thread 
> more carefully.
> 
> Best, Jeff Davis

Well sure Jeff, but what part of this theory do you find hard to believe?
Saddam feared invasion by Iran, for good reason (revenge.)  The US has no
diplomatic ties with Iran, so we could not know what was going on between
Iran and Iraq.  Recall that over a million lives were lost in the Iran-Iraq
war of 1980 to 1988, and it was Iraq that invaded Iran.  I can easily
imagine Iran was threatening retaliation.

Saddam bluffed the US by interfering with the UN weapons inspectors,
expecting the US to do something like what happened before, in 1991.  He
expected a shock and awe campaign which would do very little actual damage
to Iraq.  Wreck a few of Saddam's palaces, but he had plenty of those.  But
this would leave Iraq at full strength to defend against Iran, or better yet
prevent Iran from invading, by convincing them that Saddam was hiding nukes
or other WMD (for why else would he have interfered with the UN inspectors?)
This saved countless lives in that the two countries did not repeat the
experience of the 1980s, which Saddam started.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War

Of course the invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq by the US prevented
a new Iran-Iraq confict, which left Iran at full strength.  Everyone can see
that Iran and Israel are going to go at it soon, probably before two years
from now when Iran will have their own nukes.  Israel is surrounded by
bitter enemies and doesn't have jillions of guys to throw at Iran, so it
will likely use its nukes and advanced stuff.  Unless a miracle occurs, this
could be horrifying.

Jeff, listen to the 60 Minutes Piro interview and let us discuss this
further.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/24/60minutes/main3749494.shtml

spike