[ExI] Is unemployment the future?

[BillK]

On 11/5/09, Damien Sullivan wrote:
> That's a big difference though.  "Can't get paid" may simply mean that
>  the people with money aren't willing to pay for it.  Looking around, I
>  see shortages of teachers, nurses, doctors, environmental cleanup crews,
>  public transit bus drivers, people building non-fossil fuel power
>  plants, road and sidewalk maintenance or upgrades (they get patched,
>  not sent to mint condition), good science journalists and cross-field
>  integrators, people working on anti-aging an other research, port
>  inspectors if we're seriously worried about container nukes...
>
>  Lots and lots and lots of jobs that need doing and that AI is nowhere
>  close to handling.  Of course, a lot of them involve
>  <whisper>government</whisper>.
>
>

'Looking around' eh?   I don't know where you're looking but it
obviously isn't where the 1 in 5 desperate for work are looking. As
you say, the few jobs that are increasing are government-funded jobs.
What does that tell you about the economy?

And the lost jobs aren't coming back. That's the point of this
discussion. That's why some people talk about a 'jobless recovery' for
the economy. i.e the bankers and the stock market recover, but that's
all.

For another example see:
<http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/feature/2009/11/02/healthcare_employment/index.html>

Monday, Nov 2, 2009 17:30 PST
Why Dilbert is doomed
The jobs of tomorrow are not what you'd expect

Where are tomorrow's jobs going to come from? The question is more
urgent than ever, with official unemployment hovering around 10
percent and with nearly one in five Americans unemployed, if you count
part-time workers who want full-time jobs and people so desperate that
they have given up looking for work entirely.

Most job growth in the last decade has been concentrated in three
sectors: healthcare, education and government, mostly state and local
government. Since the recession began, healthcare has added 559,000
jobs. Even more remarkable, the average monthly gain of 22,000 jobs
during 2009 has been only slightly lower than the average increase of
30,000 jobs a month in 2008.
etc......
---------------

That sums up the future.  People will work in personal services, for
each other. you cut my hair and I'll do your tax reclaim letter.

What the effects of this change will be is unpredictable.
Will GDP mean anything at all in this future world?


BillK