[ExI] mersenne primes again

Gordon Swobe gts_2000 at yahoo.com
Fri Apr 2 15:34:50 UTC 2010

--- On Thu, 4/1/10, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> G, I get your point: using Drake style reasoning, it is
> impossible to get the number of expected extra-terrestrial 
> civilizations to go to zero, and using that line of reasoning 
> also prevents getting the number of power-failure babies to go 
> to zero.  In that sense the line of reasoning itself is suspect, 
> agreed.  On the other hand, if we do Drake-style reasoning and 
> theorize 1 to 4 extra births per million, that signal isn't
> detectable either, using known statistical methods. 
> This demonstrates that our current methods of understanding what 
> we see are far from perfect, causing us to miss so much.

Yes but I fail to see why you consider Drake-style reasoning as an alternative to traditional hypothesis testing in the first place. 

I want to know, in our example, whether the power outage in actual fact had a positive affect on the birthrate. 

The Drake-like formula does not help me answer that question. It only generates a probable number of anomalous births based on the assumption that power outages increase birthrates. I still need conventional statistics to tell me with what degree of confidence I can hold that assumption. 



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