[ExI] Half of everyone who ever reached 65 are alive now?
spike66 at att.net
Wed Apr 14 17:05:02 UTC 2010
> ...On Behalf Of Max More
> ...the following claim is made:
> "Of all the people in human history who ever reached the age
> of 65, half are alive now."
> This sounds a bit like (but less implausible) the claim that
> more people are alive today than the total number of people
> who ever lived in the past...
> But I may be wrong. Anyone know of any other analyses of this?... Max
There are some simple BOTECs you can do to convince yourself to the
contrary, however the simplest way is just take a stroll thru the local
cemetery, bring along the envelope upon which you make actual calculations
if you wish. Go into the older sections.
While travelling on the US east coast, I have personally actually seen
cemeteries with graves put there 50, some more than 60 years ago! I have
heard that in Europe, Africa and Asia and such countries as that, there are
graves still older than that. The mind boggles.
Stroll thru, do the math, you will find that *plenty* of old timers lived
past 65, plenty of them did. Then take 300 million Americans, estimate the
percentage over 65 now, and there is no damn way half the over 65ers are
alive today, not a chance. I might buy the notion that half of all those to
reach 100 are alive.
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