[ExI] psi yet again

Ross Evans ross.evans11 at gmail.com
Tue Jun 29 17:42:38 UTC 2010


On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 7:51 AM, Damien Broderick <thespike at satx.rr.com>wrote:

> On 6/29/2010 12:55 AM, John Clark wrote:
>
>  Damien does that book explain how in the past 20 years those lotteries
>>>> have somehow managed to produce huge and CONSISTENT profits
>>>>
>>>
>  >Yes.
>>>
>>
>  Delightful, I wait with eager anticipation reports of venture
>> capitalists, those most pragmatic of human beings, having invested
>> billions of dollars in new start up psi profit making companies, or even
>> millions of dollars, or even thousands of dollars, or even hundreds of
>> dollars, or even one dollar.
>>
>
> Do concentrate, John. I just agreed that lotto companies manage to be very
> profitable, despite the reality of psi. I was hoping you'd explain to me how
> and why you thought it would be otherwise.
>
> Here are some clues:
>
> <http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/gamble/odds/house.html>
>
> "If $20 million is bet on a Lotto jackpot, the state will take between 40
> and 50 percent out of that figure immediately. From the half left, smaller
> prizes are deducted. In most cases, you're left something like $5 to $8
> million for winning a 14 million to 1 bet."
>
> So up to half the money goes in taxes *immediately*. How could psi winners
> modify that?
>
>


> Additionally, the companies take out their share *from the top*. How could
> psi winners modify that?
>
> Eventually, you might suggest this: if everyone has amazing psi powers and
> always guesses the right winning numbers, then everyone will share the major
> prize, which will (by design) pay only some 40 or 50% or less of what each
> ticket cost. So people will stop betting, and the companies will have to
> close. Boo hoo.
>
> Because we live in the real world, we actually can tell fairly easily that
> this story doesn't make any sense. Everyone *can't* predict the winning
> numbers all the time. Does this prove that psi does not exist, and in fact
> is impossible?
>
> Do some calculations. Think for a moment about what would be involved if
> such an impossible skill as precognition actually existed. How would a thing
> like that modify your betting behavior?
>
> Suppose you have to guess 6 numbers out of 44 or 49. Suppose psi enhances
> one guess in 1000, and either confirms your choice or causes you to switch
> to another number. How many extra division one winners would you expect to
> see in any draw? For full credit, please show your work.
>
>
> Damien Broderick
>
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So your argument (if  we can call it that) is that psi phenomena exist,
because nobody has proven that they don't with 100% confidence. On this
basis, are you anticipating the return of the Nazarene any time soon?

Ross
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