[ExI] Peter Thiel Explains How to Invest in the Singularity | Epicenter | Wired.com

[BillK]

2010/3/9 John Grigg wrote:
> But didn't Peter Thiel loses the majority of his personal fortune (a loss of
> about FOUR AND A HALF BILLION DOLLARS!!!) by betting against the
> recovery/market?  I would say his prophetic powers failed him to say the
> least.  Imagine if besides somewhat helping out the Singularity Institute,
> he had poured even a *fraction* of that lost money (before it was
> lost!) into Aubrey de Grey's proposed anti-aging SENS program!
>
>

I'm not sure how much of that loss was his personal fortune.
The hedge fund that he runs certainly lost big and investors have been
withdrawing their money.

And his reasoning about rational markets was exactly correct.
Quote from Peter in Sept 28, 2009:
"The recovery is not real," he says. "Deep structural problems haven't
been solved and it's unclear how we will create jobs and get the
economy growing again -- that's long been my thesis and it still is."
The contrarian view puts Mr. Thiel among a group of investors with
impressive track records who are holding out, unwilling to buy into
the notion of the economy's rebound.
---------------------

He missed out on the market recovery because he couldn't accept that
markets are subject to irrational behaviour.
I agree completely with what Peter says. The P/E ratios are
unbelievable, company directors are cashing in their shares and the
investing public is having nothing to do with this market. Reason -
This market recovery has been gamed totally by a flood of free
government money from banks too big to fail. They don't care if they
lose it all, the government will just have to bail them out again.
(And we've all got our bonuses again, haven't we?).

The big question is how long they can keep this fake stock market
recovery going, while the real economy is collapsing around the
nation.

Surely reality must bring it all to a halt.   But when???????

BillK