[ExI] fun and games

[Keith Henson]

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24917/

. . . .

What the new data has allowed Bobylev to do is calculate the
probability of Gliese 710 smashing into the Solar System. What he's
found is a shock.

He says there is 86 percent chance that Gliese 710 will plough through
the Oort Cloud of frozen stuff that extends some 0.5 parsecs into
space.

That may sound like a graze but it is likely to have serious
consequences. Such an approach would send an almighty shower of comets
into the Solar System which will force us to keep our heads down for a
while. And a probability of 86 percent is about as close to certainty
as this kind of data can get.

The good news is that Bobylev says the chances of Gliese 710
penetrating further into the Solar System, inside the Kuiper Belt, are
much smaller, just 1 in a 1000. So that's all right, then.

Keep calm and carry on.

Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1003.2160: Searching for Stars Closely Encountering
with the Solar System

Keith