[ExI] Ray Kurzweil's predictions regarding the Singularity.

[John Clark]

On Nov 29, 2010, at 9:34 PM, John Grigg wrote:

> I am just not so sure about his [Ray Kurzweil's] 2045 date for a Singularity.

I'll bet that if pressed even Kurzweil would say he is not sure of that date because of its very nature a singularity is very hard to predict. I would be astonished if it happened in the next 10 years and I would be equally astonished if it didn't happen in the next 100 years, but then again being astonished is the name of the game when you're talking about the singularity.

It's easy to extrapolate a linear growth rate or even a exponential one like Moore's Law, but nobody can predict when or if a breakthrough will happen. That word is thrown around a lot nowadays but fundamental breakthroughs that arrive completely out of the blue and very quickly prove to be of existential importance are quite rare, in the 20'th century I can only think of one. In 1935 nobody could have predicted that in 10 years nuclear energy would not only become possible but practical, and dramatically and permanently change the world; nor could they have predicted that in 4 years the worst war in human history would start. If somebody found an easy way to make a practical Quantum Computer (the topological approach using non-Abelian anions?) it would throw all previous predictions about the singularity out the window, and so would a major new war. About the only thing I'm reasonably sure of is that whenever the singularity happens one year before it will still seem like a long long way away.

 John K Clark



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