[ExI] Orville Schell- China expert

[John Grigg]

Orville Schell, an Asian studies scholar and prominent journalist,
spoke last night at the Scottsdale Performing Arts Center. This frail
(the epitome of a very aged Ivy Leaguer) but charmingly earnest man
shared his troubling insights with us. He is extremely impressed both
with China's rapid growth over the last two decades, and the ability
of the Communist regime to maintain power. But he admitted deep
reservations about China's human rights record and the nature of their
global influence as they grow in power.


Schell said he had no crystal ball to give a certain prediction of the
future, and he felt things could easily go either way, in terms of the
Communists keeping a tight hold on power with very limited civil
liberties allowed, or the other scenario being where a societal
blow-up causes radical political change in ways the U.S. would like to
see. He felt the regime and society is tightly wound and the
leadership, despite their tyrannical power, tread carefully to avoid
another Tiananmen Square (Chinese leaders feel they might have
narrowly avoided a toppling & it could happen again). The Chinese
govt. over the years liked to blame foreigners for China's problems,
but that incident in particular shook the Chinese psyche deeply
because they could only blame themselves for what happened.


China he stated, does not have a firm foundation and sense of itself,
as compared to the United States with it's Constitution, Bill of
Rights, and moral compass (that we often fail to live up to, as he
admitted). The Chinese have Confucianism, Buddhism, Communism,
Christianity, etc., but nothing as defining as what our relatively new
nation has to guide it. And so they are in some ways feeling their way
toward the future and trying as a people to define themselves. But he
did say that the Chinese people (top to bottom) have a very strong
sense of cultural destiny/nationalism that drives them forward, while
on the other hand, Americans have largely lost this burning passion.


He spoke in detail about his recent trips to China and how he finds
the gigantic airports, road systems, stores, bridges and general
infrastructure there to be stunning. At one time China was known for
shoddy construction, but he said those days are largely past, and a
visit to a gorgeous and utterly massive performing arts center there
made his jaw drop in wonder. During his regular visits there (about
every three months or so), Schell notices the many changes due to the
explosive growth. He stated that they are overtaking the U.S. at a
dizzying rate that is not fully grasped in the nation, despite all the
talk over here about China.


Schell was very impressed at how the Chinese Communist regime has made
a "Leninist market economy" work so well. In the U.S. we mock the idea
of the classic Soviet style "five year plans," but he said the Chinese
are master long-term planners, and they allocate vast resources toward
scientific research centers, public infrastructure, green-tech, or
whatever else they see as vital that needs financial nurturing. The
government guides and nourishes their free market economy in ways that
have so far reaped great rewards. And the Chinese have the *deep
pockets* to grow their nation.


But on the other hand, Schell said the United States govt. is a
basketcase of rival political factions who have a hard time getting
anything done, due to all the infighting! And due to our inability to
control our debt, we have much less money than the Chinese to spend on
vital things such as science research or infrastructure. He spent many
years in Washington and what he saw there utterly disappointed him.


Regarding technology and business, he stated that Americans are gifted
innovators, and the Chinese have a long way to go to fully develop
this trait. But he thought it was crazy that we allow foreign students
to come here and get advanced science degrees, but then we order them
home, rather than letting them get citizenship and settle here! And
now many Chinese students don't even want to live here, because they
feel there is greater opportunity in their homeland!


I found it very painful when Schell admitted his doubts about whether
the American/Western model of government is really the best in the
world, and what may just triumph in the end. He confessed that he had
a sinking feeling the Chinese "Leninist Market" system may prove
superior to our own beloved democratic system, because they can save
and spend wisely, and plan & act in long-term ways, without our
crippling bickering, deadlock and short-sighted self-interest.


But he admitted that China does have its challenges. Pollution is a
major problem, but the Chinese are trying to deal with it by investing
vastly more money than we are to develop green-tech. Another huge fear
of the regime is that the 170 million rural people who moved to the
cities to find factory and construction jobs, might rebel if the
economy slows down and many of them become unemployed. The govt does
not ever want to deploy large numbers of military forces to put down
their own people, but facing such monstrous numbers would be
nightmarish for conventional law enforcement. Also, China needs to
become much more of a consumer economy, as compared to being an
exporting economy. And so they must maintain economic growth to expand
their middle class.


Schell touched on Taiwan, saying the new generation of leaders there
are much more sensitive to the wishes of the mainland, and so he sees
hope in things being resolved non-violently. As for Tibet, the Chinese
feel it was once part of their ancient empire, and so they have the
right to it. And they view the Tibetans as ingrates for not
appreciating the billions poured into the nation, along with Chinese
settlers!


I enjoyed his candor and was taken aback by his painful honesty about
America's self-destructiveness as compared to Chinese ascension. I had
expected to hear how China was not really a true challenger and that
things were being overstated in the media, but this was not to be.


As I looked over the audience I notice very few people in their
twenties or even thirties. I found this both sad and astonishing,
since young people are the ones who will have to deal with this coming
of age rival superpower that within 15 years will outstrip us
economically. I could have been visiting a retirement home...


There was a Q & A session, but some of the subjects I wanted to see
addressed, were not. I desired his opinion about the growth of the
Chinese military, the space program, and also their very successful
espionage machine that steals a great deal from us (so much for
innovation...). And I would have enjoyed his insights about the lack
of young people in the audience.


I learned that there is an annual conference in Scottsdale, Arizona
about the U.S./China relationship, but that this year it was
cancelled.  And yet fortunately, Orville Schell still came to speak.


http://orvilleschell.com/index.htm


John Grigg



.