[ExI] Trying for a minimum technical comment

[spike]

>... On Behalf Of Keith Henson

>...There is lots more for people who can handle tedious engineering
details.
_______________________________________________

But engineering details are not tedious, they are interesting and fun!  I
live for tedious engineering details.  {8-]

Here's what worries me the most.  There is a phenomenon which probably has a
name, I just don't know what it is, where a system output drops quickly even
when the system input is dropping only slowly, because the internal positive
feedback loops dominate the negative feedback loops.  The way this would
work in our energy system is that alternate energy systems are not
vigorously pursued because they are more expensive than the cheapest
alternatives, which currently includes coal, natural gas and oil.  A these
supplies gradually decrease over time, these sources get more expensive, but
so do the alternatives, so what happens is the system efficiency actually
goes down.  An example of a positive feedback loop would be where humanity
spends a lot of its available energy fighting over the remaining energy
reserves instead of developing new ones.  Another example is humanity spends
a lot of its available energy fighting over government-driven requirements
to develop new energy sources rather than developing new energy sources.  So
the overall system efficiency goes down when it needs to go up.  The cost of
the input variable could increase ten percent with the result of the cost of
the output variable doubling.  The real problem is that there is no
guarantee the negative feedback loops will dominate once again.  The next
10% increase in input could cause another doubling of output cost.

On that cheerful note, keep in mind that our current society will not
operate in any manner we recognize as society without modern communications
infrastructure, never mind operating without copious and low cost energy.

spike