[ExI] Then and still Now

[Ben Zaiboc]

Mike Dougherty <msd001 at gmail.com> bemoaned:

> Honestly, I don't feel that for
> all of our
> exponential increase in the rate of change that things are
> all that much
> different.  I will admit that my own apathy may be
> accelerating at a rate
> equal to our rate of change.  It seems we should be
> much closer to all the
> wondrous things promised to me during my childhood. 
> Computers were
> supposed to delivering immersive VR by now.  To hell
> with the flying cars
> cliche, we should be flying at the speed of thought (minus
> lightspeed
> latencies) through a multiverse of our own
> creation(s).  What do we
> actually have?  Another bloated OS release to support
> the next bloated
> software release that drives the next hardware purchase to
> keep our
> productivity constant. I could type 90 words a minute in
> 1986.  I might be
> able to type 90 words a minute now, but now I can do it
> while streaming
> video of a talking dog.  (that's progress)  In
> 1988 we made fun of
> christmas modemers partly because we were jealous of their
> 9600 baud rate,
> partly because the n00bs didn't understand the hard-won nerd
> culture.  That
> nerd culture has been supplanted by the mainstream. 
> Yeah sure, there's
> probably several variations of nerd subculture still out
> there - perhaps
> I've just moved on from being part of those
> groups.   The technology has
> made it possible to be more of the same as we've always
> been.  The details
> may be 30+ years different, but people's "trending" feels
> the same.
> 
> Sorry Spike, this rant really is out of nowhere (at least I
> changed the
> subject line).  I considered discarding rather than
> sending, but I wondered
> if anyone else shares this nagging sense...


I can understand this, but don't agree.

It just reminds me again of the old saying that people consistently greatly overestimate short-term change while greatly underestimating long-term change.

Now you can argue what 'short-term' and 'long-term' mean!

Ben Zaiboc