[ExI] X-prizes could spur robotics development

[James Clement]

Google Alerts brought this to my attention today:
http://nextbigfuture.com/2012/07/x-prizes-could-spur-robotics-development.html


X-prizes could spur robotics development
 Google has offered $20 million to the first privately funded group to send
a robot to the moon. This prize, which is the largest X-prize ever offered,
will expire at the end of 2015. There are currently 26 teams actively
trying to win the prize. One of those teams, Astrobotic, is lead by "Red"
Whittaker. Dr. Whittaker is a Carnegie Mellon roboticist who is determined
to win the prize. In an interview with Sander Olson for Next Big Future,
Astrobotic CEO Whittaker discusses how the X-prize will spur robotics
development and competition, why AI isn't essential to the development of
robotics, and why the capabilities of robots could equal those of
biological systems within a decade.
Red Whittaker
Question: How long before driverless cars become commercially available?
The short answer is five years. The development of driverless cars is
proceed incrementally, with cars already offering navigational aids and
hands free parking. Carnegie Mellon is still developing driverless cars.
This technology is also appearing in mining machines, construction
machines, defense, agriculture, trucks, etc. These are all big money
markets, and the R&D funding will only increase as a thriving industry
develops.
Question: Roboticists are excited about the Kinect device. How will this
change the field of robotics?
The Kinect device is an inexpensive device that can provide range data and
sensing in light and dark environments. It is ideal for many different
robotics applications. The sensing capabilities of the kinect have been
around for a while, but they were prohibitively expensive for most robotic
applications. But the kinect costs maybe $100 dollars, and Microsoft will
soon introduce an improved version with greater sensitivity. So it has the
potential to be a game-changer for robotics.
Question: How has funding for robotics research changed during the past
decade?
Funding for robotics is now greater than it ever has been before. Twenty
years ago, it would have been irresponsible for a major company to commit
to robotics in mining, driving, defense, or virtually any field except
manufacturing. The enabling technologies simply weren't ready. Now that the
enabling technologies have been developed, companies are proliferating, new
startups are frequently emerging, and big companies are adopting. So this
is way beyond simply funding science projects.
Question: Carnegie Mellon is one of the contestants for the lunar x-prize.
How confident are you that you will be able to land a rover on the moon by
2015?
We are very confident of landing a rover on the moon. There are currently
26 teams competing for the prize. The prize is $20 million for a
non-federal program that lands a rover on the moon. Our ambition is to
reach the pole to drill for lunar ice. We have an active program, and we
are making steady progress.
Question: Are you concerned that the Chinese Change 3 lunar rover, set to
land in 2013, might accomplish the task first?
The prize is for a non-federal moon landing. If a Government succeeds
before a team, the prize is reduced to $15 million. I am amazed by the
effectiveness of the x-prize to jump-start research. These prizes award one
shot accomplishments, but the larger impact is to springboard further
development.
Question: What role will the lunar X-prize have on robotics?
The cash prize is an incentive. A team will spend more than the prize to
succeed, but the follow-on payoff is a multiple of the expenditure. This is
why x-prizes are so effective, It provides an incentive to employ many
different approaches. The robotic x-prizes are specifically designed to
spur R&D on robotics applications, and they succeed at that.
Question: How important is Government funding to your project?
Government money for any of our projects is a component of a balanced
portfolio. The Government didn't put any money into Lindbergh crossing the
Atlantic, or to Deep Blue or Watson. So grants are good for incremental
research, but I am more excited by transformational R&D. For these
high-risk, high-reward tasks, corporations and x-prizes are often more
effective than grants.
Question: How much AI research is Carnegie Mellon doing?
Carnegie Mellon essentially created the field of Artificial Intelligence.
Carnegie Mellon currently has one of the best AI programs on the planet,
and there is extensive collaboration between AI and robotics.
Question: How important are AI advances to robotic development?
Although AI advances do benefit the robotics industry, the robotics
industry can grow exponentially even without embracing AI breakthroughs.
For instance, our mining robot had to solve various issues involved with
navigating in dark, uneven tunnels. Although this robot was limited in its
capabilities, it was good enough to get the job done, and it succeeded in
all of its objectives. That is the case with many robotic tasks - robots
simply don't require the general, flexible, and subtle intelligence that
humans have for most jobs they will be given.
Question: But what about robots that need to work outside of structured
environments?
Unstructured environments do require more sophisticated AI, but even in
those environments narrow AI programs generally get the job done. For
instance, we developed a robot to drive around Antarctica, looking for
meteorites. The robot was effectively able to navigate, and to locate
meteorites. The same is true of the mars rovers - they can't play chess or
Jeopardy, but they effectively perform the tasks that they are programmed
to do. But for narrow AI tasks, robots often outperform humans.
Question: What robotic advances would you like to see by 2022?
By 2022, we should have made enough progress in areas such as sensing,
planning, modeling, autonomy, and power, that the capabilities of robots
will be approaching those of biological systems. We should see exponential
growth both in the number of robots in operation and in the capabilities of
robots. I am convinced that robotics will play as large a role in society
during the next three decades as computers and the internet have played in
the last three.

Best regards,

James
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