[ExI] Wash post comment

[Max More]

The optimism bias appears to apply to individual's assessments of their own
capabilities and chances of success. It does not seem to apply to judgments
of the future in general. It's perfectly possible -- and seems to be common
-- for humans in our society to be unrealistically optimistic about their
own changes while being pessimistic about the world in general.

A fascinating book on this topic is Shelly E. Taylor's Positive Illusions.

--Max


On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 2:57 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 10:21 PM, Jeff Davis wrote:
> > To the charge of being an optimist, I plead enthusiastically in
> > agreement.  Guiltlessly, enthusiastically, dynamically in agreement.
> > And I invite one and all to join with me in optimarchy.
> >
> > Re the above link: I read the first couple of pages, thank you.  It
> > seemed more puff piece -- As in "Well, duh!" -- than scientifically
> > informative.   But I genuinely appreciate our "discussion", and am at
> > pains to make sure you to feel treated with respect, despite the fact
> > that I find the materials you provided not persuasive.
> >
> > Are we good, then?
> >
>
> Yes, the article was a 'pop' easy read version.
> It is a real effect though.
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimism_bias>
> has more scholarly references for you if you want more detail.
>
> Optimism seems to be a pretty universal human characteristic.
> As the article says, it is good for you. Keeps you happier and healthier.
> Gives you incentive to get out and do seemingly impossible things.
> What's not to like?
>
> Well, the problem is neglecting to plan for when your endeavors fail
> to turn out as well as you hoped for.
> Being slightly depressed (cautious?) means 'Hope for the best but plan
> for the worst'.
> Whereas a supreme optimist says 'Don't worry - it will never happen'.
>
> Humanity needs optimists to be entrepreneurs, start new businesses, do
> scientific breakthroughs, etc. But remember that most new businesses
> fail.  It is very reasonable to include backup plans.
> Just sayin'.  :)
>
> BillK
>
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-- 
Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
7895 E. Acoma Dr # 110
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
480/905-1906 ext 113
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