[ExI] Ossification (Was: riots)

[BillK]

On Tue, Sep 25, 2012 at 9:34 AM, Charlie Stross wrote:
> Worse. We currently live in a society where human life expectancy is bounded at around 114 years,
> but where most people in the developed world *expect* 70 years in decent health, then declining
> faculties and abilities. So someone who has, for example, reached 60 and accumulated significant
> assets will (a) have a very strong incentive to hang onto them (as a cushion for their declining years)
> and (b) have the means to defend them against young, inexperienced, low-social-capital interlopers.
>
> We have a societal set-up that gives disproportionate wealth, power, and status to the elderly.
> This is not a HUGE problem, as long as there's a grim garbage-collector running in the background,
> but there are already signs that it is damaging our larger society -- the transfer of real estate wealth
> to the old facilitated by the credit bubble, for example, that has led to the freezing out of the
> under-30s from property markets.
>
> The first order effects of age extension *right now* would be to tip the balance of power further towards
> the elderly -- who, in our current system, are largely a transient rentier class. Immediate consequences:
> rising youth unemployment, a recession or depression caused by the partial collapse of the investment
> sector due to the destabilization of pension schemes, the collapse of social security systems, and a rain
> of boiling frogs. (Well, not the latter bit.)
>

I wouldn't blame the current societal problems on a transfer of wealth
to the elderly. The problem is caused by the transfer of wealth to a
very small percentage of *extremely* rich people (a few of whom happen
to be elderly). I haven't noticed that bank speculators, pop stars or
footballers are particularly elderly. The poor section of the
population tend to be mostly elderly people who are no longer employed
and survive on the state pension. Financial inequality is far more
pronounced in today's society, with all the associated problems.

The freezing out of under-30s from the property market is mostly a UK
problem caused by politicians obsession with keeping house prices way
over-valued. If the bubble in UK housing was allowed to burst and
reduce house prices, then housing would become much more affordable.
But the political fallout of all the Conservative supporters (and
property speculators) feeling much poorer cannot be allowed.

Your description of all the economic consequences is correct, but
wrongly attributed to the elderly. Ask SAGA or Age Concern (the UK old
folks organisations) if they think the elderly are ruling the roost.
After they stop laughing, they might explain that the elderly (as a
section of society) are more in need of help than the younger age
groups.

BillK