From anders at aleph.se  Fri Mar  1 01:38:33 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 01 Mar 2013 01:38:33 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Progress
Message-ID: <51300699.8060005@aleph.se>

And you thought we didn't make some progress:

Rat borganisms: A Brain-to-Brain Interface for Real-Time Sharing of 
Sensorimotor Information
http://www.nature.com/srep/2013/130228/srep01319/full/srep01319.html

(I found out via a journalist who interviewed me, at 
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2013/feb/28/brains-rats-connected-share-information 
)

Lifespan of neurons is uncoupled from organismal lifespan:
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/02/19/1217505110.abstract?sid=b6fbf5c9-5525-4897-828b-718404e68c7f

(I just attended a talk by Kasparov about the need for more innovation 
and progress. He sounds very much like he could have been a list member.)

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From stathisp at gmail.com  Fri Mar  1 01:42:52 2013
From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou)
Date: Fri, 1 Mar 2013 12:42:52 +1100
Subject: [ExI] insanity plea
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2vV7Dk436zvwWGAYs9t3hn=VySW+-ez1gH8CD25kOm1g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <011201ce0d7c$f753c090$e5fb41b0$@att.net> <51220700.802@aleph.se>
 <CAPoR7a71d2cTaQoW=WzdY=y7C-Q0JLh9Pvfb-93Bh3+kr_KxGQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <010f01ce12a4$92ec0180$b8c40480$@rainier66.com> <512A4637.3010208@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv3TdWup9aKsAX=TXt7WuBaeixxMbMD50bgavr+3+FSQ3A@mail.gmail.com>
 <512D4F5A.4010008@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv1RXVuuuvjKckWNFud+Kw+S-bFdWKR+-3O5m3W+SjqtAA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAH=2ypVKw6101UMVygvnYVCpzjJ7bLqqG0GY=sm071uY+8LwuQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2vV7Dk436zvwWGAYs9t3hn=VySW+-ez1gH8CD25kOm1g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAH=2ypWqFETr53rSp7Luss4XrZum3oFEYCemKg09OJb_y8ueCw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 1, 2013 at 8:21 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

>> > You start hearing the voice of God telling you that you must kill your
>> > neighbour in order to prevent the Earth being hit by an asteroid. You kill
>> > the neighbour, and the police arrest you. They ask you why you did it and
>> > you tell them. They arrange a medical assessment and the doctor notices that
>> > you have tachycardia, tremor, exophthalmos, weight loss and complain of
>> > feeling hot even though it's cold. He orders thyroid function tests and
>> > finds that you have Grave's Disease. You are admitted to hospital and are
>> > treated with anti-thyroid medication, and later a rhyroidectomy, with
>> > resolution of the symptoms, including the psychosis. Now well, you are
>> > aghast at what you've done. At your trial, you point out that not only have
>> > you never hurt another human being in your entire life, you are also an
>> > atheist, as evidenced by your posts from this very list. Moreover, the cause
>> > of your psychotic state, hyperthyroidism, has now been cured surgically, and
>> > you pose no further risk to society. None of the facts of the case are
>> > disputed by the prosecution. Should you still get the same punishment as any
>> > other murderer?
>
>
> My mental malfunction has been repaired and I am quite literally not the
> same man I was, so if the doctors can say beyond a reasonable doubt that I
> am no more likely to murder again than the general population then I should
> be released. However in the real world the thought experiment you describe
> almost never happens,  and I'm not sure if I should have said "almost".

The case I have described is of a treatable organic psychosis. Much
more commonly involved in forensic cases are the so-called functional
psychoses such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. These can also
be treated very effectively with medication in at least 70% of cases,
but the problem is that the symptoms recur if the medication stops.
There are ways to guarantee the patient is medicated, for example with
monthly injections.

In any case, you have agreed with what happens in practice with
forensic psychiatric patients in most jurisdictions: they are detained
until it can be guaranteed that they no longer pose a threat. The
detention may be in better conditions than regular prisons, but
sometimes for longer, and followed up after release by compulsory
treatment in the community.


-- 
Stathis Papaioannou


From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar  1 02:04:12 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2013 18:04:12 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Progress
In-Reply-To: <51300699.8060005@aleph.se>
References: <51300699.8060005@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <013401ce1621$12021020$36063060$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
...

>...(I just attended a talk by Kasparov about the need for more innovation
and progress. He sounds very much like he could have been a list member.)

--
Anders Sandberg
_______________________________________________


WHOA!  Anders, you have been in the presence of GOD!  I am in awe!  Wow,
that makes me a friend of a guy who has talked with GOD!

Definitely, Kasparov would have made a great extropian.  Of course had he
shown up here, I would swoon like a civil war era maiden, and then nobody
would be doing the moderation tasks.  But still.



From anders at aleph.se  Fri Mar  1 08:53:39 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 01 Mar 2013 08:53:39 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Progress
In-Reply-To: <013401ce1621$12021020$36063060$@rainier66.com>
References: <51300699.8060005@aleph.se>
 <013401ce1621$12021020$36063060$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <51306C93.508@aleph.se>

On 01/03/2013 02:04, spike wrote:
> WHOA! Anders, you have been in the presence of GOD! I am in awe! Wow, 
> that makes me a friend of a guy who has talked with GOD! Definitely, 
> Kasparov would have made a great extropian. Of course had he shown up 
> here, I would swoon like a civil war era maiden, and then nobody would 
> be doing the moderation tasks. But still.

But still. He is a fun guy, very smart. (No, chess grandmasters do not 
have to be supersmart. As I earlier mentioned, studies show that at 
first among kids chess performance correlates with intelligence, but 
then the smartest kids get other interests leaving only the merely smart 
to go on and dedicate themselves to the game) Pro-technology, 
pro-freedom, smart, what is there not to like?

His current project is a book with Peter Thiel and Max Levchin about the 
need to get back the spirit of innovation. His (their?) analysis of the 
difference between horizontal innovation and vertical innovation was 
pretty astute.

Earlier this week we had a big debate on the causes of obesity ( 
http://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2013/02/28/balaji-ravichandran-are-all-calories-equal-or-are-some-more-equal-than-others 
<http://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2013/02/28/balaji-ravichandran-are-all-calories-equal-or-are-some-more-equal-than-others/> 
) and I think my main take-home surprise was that obesity suddenly 
started to grow worldwide (with some lags) in the late 70s. Yet the 
causes seems to be fairly complex - I was not too convinced by the 
explanations given. In the same way, I think Gary's (and Tyler Cowen's) 
analysis of a dearth of innovation post ~1970-1980 is roughly right, but 
there doesn't seem to be a really good single explanation. We have 
complex systems that seem to shift in a fairly thourough way fairly 
quickly. Maybe this is just nonlinear responses or bifurcations, in 
which case it might be surprisingly tricky to fix them other than just 
keeping trying to change the rules profoundly and hoping that sooner or 
later we hit the right combination.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University

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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar  1 15:37:13 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 1 Mar 2013 07:37:13 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Progress
In-Reply-To: <51306C93.508@aleph.se>
References: <51300699.8060005@aleph.se>
 <013401ce1621$12021020$36063060$@rainier66.com> <51306C93.508@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <006601ce1692$a67cdc00$f3769400$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Sent: Friday, March 01, 2013 12:54 AM
To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
Subject: Re: [ExI] Progress

 

On 01/03/2013 02:04, spike wrote:

WHOA! Anders, you have been in the presence of GOD! I am in awe! Wow, that
makes me a friend of a guy who has talked with GOD! Definitely, Kasparov
would have made a great extropian. Of course had he shown up here, I would
swoon like a civil war era maiden, and then nobody would be doing the
moderation tasks. But still.


>.But still. He is a fun guy, very smart. (No, chess grandmasters do not
have to be supersmart. As I earlier mentioned, studies show that at first
among kids chess performance correlates with intelligence, but then the
smartest kids get other interests leaving only the merely smart to go on and
dedicate themselves to the game) Pro-technology, pro-freedom, smart, what is
there not to like?

>.His current project is a book with Peter Thiel and Max Levchin about the
need to get back the spirit of innovation. His (their?) analysis of the
difference between horizontal innovation and vertical innovation was pretty
astute.  Anders

 

 

Anders it was a great relief to see your post midnight (PST) comments, for
it indicated the world had not come to an end.  The Keynsians were assuring
us that if sequestration were not averted, the apocalypse would be upon us.
Clearly it is not.  I have a theory that the US would not be destroyed by a
small budget cut.  The evidence is already coming.

 

I would like to have been present when Peter Thiel met Gary Kasparov.  Theil
loooooves chess, with a passion seldom seen.  That would have been fun to
watch a multibillionaire stammer in awe like Ralph Kramden: hammina hammina
hammina.

 

Regarding the spirit of innovation, the way we have chosen to do
intellectual property law in our major corporations is working against
innovation.  More details available soon, after I work out some IP issues,
which should be in the next few days.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 



Earlier this week we had a big debate on the causes of obesity (
http://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2013/02/28/balaji-ravichandran-are-all-calories-equ
al-or-are-some-more-equal-than-others
<http://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2013/02/28/balaji-ravichandran-are-all-calories-eq
ual-or-are-some-more-equal-than-others/>  ) and I think my main take-home
surprise was that obesity suddenly started to grow worldwide (with some
lags) in the late 70s. Yet the causes seems to be fairly complex - I was not
too convinced by the explanations given. In the same way, I think Gary's
(and Tyler Cowen's) analysis of a dearth of innovation post ~1970-1980 is
roughly right, but there doesn't seem to be a really good single
explanation. We have complex systems that seem to shift in a fairly
thourough way fairly quickly. Maybe this is just nonlinear responses or
bifurcations, in which case it might be surprisingly tricky to fix them
other than just keeping trying to change the rules profoundly and hoping
that sooner or later we hit the right combination. 




-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University 
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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar  1 16:20:26 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 1 Mar 2013 08:20:26 -0800
Subject: [ExI] sequestration:  was RE:  Progress
Message-ID: <007401ce1698$afffa590$0ffef0b0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike



 

>.Anders it was a great relief to see your post midnight (PST) comments, for
it indicated the world had not come to an end.  The Keynsians were assuring
us that if sequestration were not averted, the apocalypse would be upon us.
spike

 

 

OK, so this is what anarchy feels like.  Oh, the humanity, he wept.  

 

As a result of a 48 billion dollar cut in this fiscal year's reckless
government spending (out of an approximately 3.8 trillion dollar outlay) we
are assured that THE END is upon us.  Representative Maxine Waters warned
that it would result in the loss of 170 million jobs.  I will confess that
the words million, billion and trillion do rhyme, however the American
people have collectively called bullshit on their own government.  I
collected a few of my favorite quotes from the usual suspects:

 

 

"A few hours of fitful sleep, the sound of sirens and screams of the victims
of the Barackalypse rending the night air . . . I saw their fires in the
dark, savagery swiftly tearing away the thin veneer of civilization only
government diversity programs provided."  Rick Wilson

 

"The #sequester may now join the Mayan Calendar and the Y2K bug in the
"[Stuff] Everyone Survived" Hall of Fame."  Brandon Morse

 

"OH MY GOD THERE ARE GOVERNMENT WORKERS SPONTANEOUSLY COMBUSTING ALL OVER
THE PLACE, THIS IS HORRIBLE, PLEASE MAKE IT STOP" He added, "BREAKING:
CALIFORNIA DECLARES WAR ON OREGON; KENTUCKY LAUNCHES SNEAK ATTACK ON
TENNESSEE. MASS CHAOS."  Brendan Loy

 

"Just looked out the window. Five hedge fund guys fighting over a piece of
raw meat."  John Podhoretz

 

"It wasn't until I ate my neighbor's pancreas that I realized president
Obama was right about the sequester."  Jonah

 

"Nothing to worry about! I grabbed my double barrel shotgun & blasted
#sequester through the door, just like the VP said."  Sebastian

 

"I don't think my neighbors are taking sequestration seriously. They're
giving me weird looks and making fun of my war paint and loincloth."  Becket
Adams

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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar  1 16:41:48 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 1 Mar 2013 08:41:48 -0800
Subject: [ExI] kasparov and rat borganisms: was RE: [tt]  Progress
Message-ID: <008501ce169b$ab269ee0$0173dca0$@rainier66.com>



From: Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se>
...
>...Rat borganisms: A Brain-to-Brain Interface for Real-Time Sharing of
Sensorimotor Information
http://www.nature.com/srep/2013/130228/srep01319/full/srep01319.html

>...(I just attended a talk by Kasparov about the need for more innovation
and progress. He sounds very much like he could have been a list member.) --
Anders Sandberg


Oh this gives me an idea.  Assume everyone here has seen the hilarious Hot
Cross Bunny: 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMpODxbvX8I

We go to a Kasparov talk with whatever they used to do the rat brain to
brain interface in Anders' Rat Borganisms post.  After Gary's tap dance, we
pop him with a mallet like the mad scientist does to Bugs at 4:34, then put
the device on him like the one used at 6:45, zap, switch our brains, then I
go down to the club Saturday and completely whoop ass, and Kasparov sucks!
Oh that would be a kick.

spike





From msd001 at gmail.com  Fri Mar  1 18:55:54 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Fri, 1 Mar 2013 13:55:54 -0500
Subject: [ExI] kasparov and rat borganisms: was RE: [tt] Progress
In-Reply-To: <008501ce169b$ab269ee0$0173dca0$@rainier66.com>
References: <008501ce169b$ab269ee0$0173dca0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbLiuSnZThe2bg4+grXtdKY7OwdUm+FRMUTkPFeHT4yFWA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 1, 2013 at 11:41 AM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
> We go to a Kasparov talk with whatever they used to do the rat brain to
> brain interface in Anders' Rat Borganisms post.  After Gary's tap dance, we
> pop him with a mallet like the mad scientist does to Bugs at 4:34, then put
> the device on him like the one used at 6:45, zap, switch our brains, then I
> go down to the club Saturday and completely whoop ass, and Kasparov sucks!
> Oh that would be a kick.

>From just the subject line I was expecting that you were going to
cluster a bunch of rats and make them play vs. Kasparov.  Of course it
wouldn't even be entertaining unless there was some chance the rats
could win... so I assume lots of training in the Rat-Borg version of
Deep Blue.

I wonder how many rats you'll need to scale up to Deep Blue / Watson /
Kasparov caliber of processing?  Does the reward of cheese impact the
numbers greatly?  (to the rats... I'm pretty sure Watson is unmoved by
cheese and Kasparov may or may not be interested in cheese)


From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Mar  1 21:57:56 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 1 Mar 2013 21:57:56 +0000
Subject: [ExI] sequestration: was RE: Progress
In-Reply-To: <007401ce1698$afffa590$0ffef0b0$@rainier66.com>
References: <007401ce1698$afffa590$0ffef0b0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhZPVa-DE0TFsO9tyfYGoaGR+qOWSr47+3Q6YYEbkdyuA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 1, 2013 at 4:20 PM, spike wrote:
> As a result of a 48 billion dollar cut in this fiscal year?s reckless
> government spending (out of an approximately 3.8 trillion dollar outlay)
we
> are assured that THE END is upon us.  Representative Maxine Waters warned
> that it would result in the loss of 170 million jobs.  I will confess that
> the words million, billion and trillion do rhyme, however the American
> people have collectively called bullshit on their own government.  I
> collected a few of my favorite quotes from the usual suspects:
>

Zero Hedge comments savagely -----
Today is the day when, if one listens to Obama whose idea it was in the
first place, an unprecedented $85 billion spending cuts will be
sequestered, unleashing famine, pestilence, the apocalypse and grizzly
bears (as all park rangers will be dead from starvation). Which is why we
applaud the administration's desire to preempt this tragic for the nation
outcome, by issuing, in one day alone: February 28, $80 billion in
Treasurys sending debt to (obviously) what is a new all time high
$16,687,289,180,215.37.

*In other words, the entire apocalyptic impact of the sequester for 2013
was offset by one day's debt issuance.*

Oh, and we didn't label this post Friday humor because it rightfully falls
under the Friday grotesque, surreal tragedy category.
------

Oy vey, indeed.


BillK
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From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Mar  1 22:42:11 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 1 Mar 2013 14:42:11 -0800
Subject: [ExI] sequestration: was RE: Progress
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhZPVa-DE0TFsO9tyfYGoaGR+qOWSr47+3Q6YYEbkdyuA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <007401ce1698$afffa590$0ffef0b0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhZPVa-DE0TFsO9tyfYGoaGR+qOWSr47+3Q6YYEbkdyuA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSJDutQ5h0G9P50txoCLcjXpTkTihzt8abadxU=RiN1OA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 1, 2013 at 1:57 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> Zero Hedge comments savagely -----
> Today is the day when, if one listens to Obama whose idea it was in the
> first place, an unprecedented $85 billion spending cuts will be sequestered,
> unleashing famine, pestilence, the apocalypse and grizzly bears (as all park
> rangers will be dead from starvation). Which is why we applaud the
> administration's desire to preempt this tragic for the nation outcome, by
> issuing, in one day alone: February 28, $80 billion in Treasurys sending
> debt to (obviously) what is a new all time high $16,687,289,180,215.37.
>
> In other words, the entire apocalyptic impact of the sequester for 2013 was
> offset by one day's debt issuance.

Loses all impact when you realize that "one day" is as in "a new
budget can be passed, and the alleged problems fixed, in one
day, especially if that span of time only measures some small
part of the total effort, such as the time it takes to write up and
sign an order that's been agreed to".


From sparge at gmail.com  Fri Mar  1 20:13:28 2013
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Fri, 1 Mar 2013 15:13:28 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Progress
In-Reply-To: <51306C93.508@aleph.se>
References: <51300699.8060005@aleph.se>
 <013401ce1621$12021020$36063060$@rainier66.com>
 <51306C93.508@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2cO0+_eAk6HZSP7WEqyCA2JWy5fZsOkLCqcA7DC-ExnFA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 1, 2013 at 3:53 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> Earlier this week we had a big debate on the causes of obesity (
>
http://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2013/02/28/balaji-ravichandran-are-all-calories-equal-or-are-some-more-equal-than-others
> ) and I think my main take-home surprise was that obesity suddenly started
> to grow worldwide (with some lags) in the late 70s. Yet the causes seems
to
> be fairly complex - I was not too convinced by the explanations given.

This is pretty interesting (summary, emphasis mine):

http://people.csail.mit.edu/seneff/sulfur_obesity_alzheimers_muscle_wasting.html

*Although sulfur is an essential element in human biology, we hear
surprisingly little about sulfur in discussions on health. Sulfur binds
strongly with oxygen, and is able to stably carry a charge ranging from +6
to -2, and is therefore very versatile in supporting aerobic metabolism.
There is strong evidence that sulfur deficiency plays a role in diseases
ranging from Alzheimer's to cancer to heart disease. Particularly
intriguing is the relationship between sulfur deficiency and muscle
wasting, a signature of end-stage cancer, AIDS, Crohn's disease, and
chronic fatigue syndrome.*
*
*
*The African rift zone, where humans are believed to have first made their
appearance several million years ago, would have been rich with sulfur
supplied by active volcanism. It is striking that people living today in
places where sulfur is abundantly provided by recent volcanism enjoy a low
risk for heart disease and obesity.*
*
*
*In my research on sulfur, I was drawn to two mysterious molecules:
cholesterol sulfate and vitamin D3 sulfate. Researchers have not yet
determined the role that cholesterol sulfate plays in the blood stream,
despite the fact that it is ubiquitous there. Research experiments have
clearly shown that cholesterol sulfate is protective against heart disease.
I have developed a theory proposing that cholesterol sulfate is central to
the formation of lipid rafts, which, in turn, are essential for aerobic
glucose metabolism. I would predict that deficiencies in cholesterol
sulfate lead to severe defects in muscle metabolism, and this includes the
heart muscle. My theory would explain the protective role of cholesterol
sulfate in heart disease and muscle wasting diseases.*
*
*
*I have also argued that cholesterol sulfate delivers oxygen to myoglobin
in muscle cells, resulting in safe oxygen transport to the mitochondria. I
argue a similar role for alpha-synuclein in the brain. There is a striking
relationship between Alzheimer's and sulfur depletion in neurons in the
brain. Sulfur plays a key role in protectiing proteins in neurons and
muscle cells from oxidative damage, while maintaining adequate oxygen
supply to the mitochondria.*
*
*
*When muscles become impaired in glucose metabolism due to reduced
availability of cholesterol sulfate, proliferating fat cells become
involved in converting glucose to fat. This provides an alternative fuel
for the muscle cells, and replenishes the cholesterol supply by storing and
refurbishing cholesterol extracted from defective LDL. Thin people with
cholesterol and sulfur deficiency are vulnerable to a wide range of
problems, such as Crohn's disease, chronic fatigue syndrome, and muscle
wasting, because fat cells are not available to ameliorate the situation.*
*
*
*Cholesterol sulfate in the epithelium protects from invasion of pathogens
through the skin, which greatly reduces the burden placed on the immune
system. Perhaps the most intriguing possibility presented here is the idea
that sulfur provides a way for the skin to become a solar-powered battery:
to store the energy from sunlight as chemical energy in the sulfate
molecule. This seems like a very sensible and practical scheme, and the
biochemistry involved has been demonstrated to work in phototrophic
sulfur-metabolizing bacteria found in sulfur hot springs.*
*
*
*The skin produces vitamin D3 sulfate upon exposure to sunlight, and the
vitamin D3 found in breast milk is also sulfated. In light of these facts,
it is quite surprising to me that so little research has been directed
towards understanding what role sulfated vitamin D3 plays in the body. It
is recently becoming apparent that vitamin D3 promotes a strong immune
system and offers protection against cancer, yet how it achieves these
benefits is not at all clear. I strongly suspect that it is vitamin D3
sulfate that carries out this aspect of vitamin D3's positive influence.*
*
*
*Modern lifestyle practices conspire to induce major deficiencies in
cholesterol sulfate and vitamin D3 sulfate. We are encouraged to actively
avoid sun exposure and to minimize dietary intake of cholesterol-containing
foods. We are encouraged to consume a high-carbohydrate/low-fat diet which,
as I have argued previously (Seneff2010), leads to impaired cholesterol
uptake in cells. We are told nothing about sulfur, yet many factors,
ranging from the Clean Air Act to intensive farming to water softeners,
deplete the supply of sulfur in our food and water.*
*
*
*Fortunately, correcting these deficiencies at the individual level is easy
and straightforward. If you just throw away the sunscreen and eat more
eggs, those two steps alone may greatly increase your chances of living a
long and healthy life.*
*
*
-Dave
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Fri Mar  1 23:42:59 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Fri, 1 Mar 2013 15:42:59 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Obesity was progress.
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB7bEOAJA3PvPEALvLw6M4z3MPkwKX+A8BKk5E8meGy2vw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 1, 2013 at 4:00 AM,  Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se>> wrote:

snip

> Earlier this week we had a big debate on the causes of obesity (
> http://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2013/02/28/balaji-ravichandran-are-all-calories-equal-or-are-some-more-equal-than-others
> <http://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2013/02/28/balaji-ravichandran-are-all-calories-equal-or-are-some-more-equal-than-others/>
> ) and I think my main take-home surprise was that obesity suddenly
> started to grow worldwide (with some lags) in the late 70s. Yet the
> causes seems to be fairly complex - I was not too convinced by the
> explanations given.

Off hand obesity seems to be a side effect of an arms race among the
corporations that sell food.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/magazine/the-extraordinary-science-of-junk-food.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0

"Their stature was defined by their skill in fighting one another for
what they called ?stomach share? ? the amount of digestive space that
any one company?s brand can grab from the competition."

Vast research has gone into foods, making them tasty, rewarding,
addicting even.  Is it a surprise that we eat a lot of food optimized
to be consumed?

Readers can probably think of lots of ways to test this model.

Keith



From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Mar  2 03:42:54 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 1 Mar 2013 19:42:54 -0800
Subject: [ExI] sequestration: was RE: Progress
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhZPVa-DE0TFsO9tyfYGoaGR+qOWSr47+3Q6YYEbkdyuA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <007401ce1698$afffa590$0ffef0b0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhZPVa-DE0TFsO9tyfYGoaGR+qOWSr47+3Q6YYEbkdyuA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <013801ce16f8$067e8b20$137ba160$@rainier66.com>

 

 

>? On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] sequestration: was RE: Progress

 

On Fri, Mar 1, 2013 at 4:20 PM, spike wrote:
>>? As a result of a 48 billion dollar cut in this fiscal year?s reckless
> government spending (out of an approximately 3.8 trillion dollar outlay) we
> are assured that THE END is upon us? spike

>?In other words, the entire apocalyptic impact of the sequester for 2013 was offset by one day's debt issuance.
? Oy vey, indeed. BillK
------

BillK, apologies for failing to answer, for I have been crazy busy catching up on all the things I have neglected while anticipating the end of the world.  Since the world was ending, there was no point in mowing the yard, cleaning the house, taking out the garbage, bathing, that sort of thing, for if it really is THE END then none of this will make the slightest bit of difference if left undone.

 

When this morning dawned and I saw that the world hadn?t ended, that zombies were not coming, life forms were still forming life, then I had to get with it and do all those usual tasks that had been put off in dreaded anticipation.  So now it?s back to our regularly scheduled programming. 

 

spike





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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Mar  2 03:51:47 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 1 Mar 2013 19:51:47 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Obesity was progress.
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB7bEOAJA3PvPEALvLw6M4z3MPkwKX+A8BKk5E8meGy2vw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB7bEOAJA3PvPEALvLw6M4z3MPkwKX+A8BKk5E8meGy2vw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <013d01ce16f9$44894e40$cd9beac0$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of Keith Henson
>...

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/magazine/the-extraordinary-science-of-junk
-food.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0

>...Vast research has gone into foods, making them tasty, rewarding,
addicting even.  Is it a surprise that we eat a lot of food optimized to be
consumed?  Readers can probably think of lots of ways to test this model.
Keith

_______________________________________________


Keith it shouldn't surprise us that food is evolving.  In the marketplace,
only the most enticing and most profitable foods survive.  The article you
offered has at the top a perfect example of evolution of foods, the Dorito.
I vaguely remember back in the 1960s when Doritos were first showing up, and
we liked them.  Now if you go to any grocery store, you will find the
original Doritos with a collection of similar offspring products, many
flavors of Doritos and all their knockoffs.  Before that, we had Fritos,
which are still around in their original form but not nearly as successful
at evolving.

Food is better now than it once was.  It is constantly being improved, in
terms of marketability and profitability.

spike



From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Sat Mar  2 13:47:54 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Sat, 2 Mar 2013 05:47:54 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Doritos was obesity
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB7h8CEG5w-SjZwnMyxvSbnF1dA0pbc4y_4z_r9AJ9wHWQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Mar 2, 2013 at 4:00 AM,   "spike" <spike at rainier66.com>> wrote:

>>... On Behalf Of Keith Henson
>>...
>
> http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/magazine/the-extraordinary-science-of-junk
> -food.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0
>
>>...Vast research has gone into foods, making them tasty, rewarding,
> addicting even.  Is it a surprise that we eat a lot of food optimized to be
> consumed?  Readers can probably think of lots of ways to test this model.
> Keith
>
> _______________________________________________
>
>
> Keith it shouldn't surprise us that food is evolving.  In the marketplace,
> only the most enticing and most profitable foods survive.  The article you
> offered has at the top a perfect example of evolution of foods, the Dorito.
> I vaguely remember back in the 1960s when Doritos were first showing up, and
> we liked them.  Now if you go to any grocery store, you will find the
> original Doritos with a collection of similar offspring products, many
> flavors of Doritos and all their knockoffs.  Before that, we had Fritos,
> which are still around in their original form but not nearly as successful
> at evolving.
>
> Food is better now than it once was.  It is constantly being improved, in
> terms of marketability and profitability.

And we are surprised by people eating more of this highly engineered
and researched food and getting fat?

Keith


From msd001 at gmail.com  Sat Mar  2 17:09:51 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Sat, 2 Mar 2013 12:09:51 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Doritos was obesity
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB7h8CEG5w-SjZwnMyxvSbnF1dA0pbc4y_4z_r9AJ9wHWQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB7h8CEG5w-SjZwnMyxvSbnF1dA0pbc4y_4z_r9AJ9wHWQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbLJDZPJS563SHuFEos8H_CUkpbDzbf9Kz2fQTwPMm6tZw@mail.gmail.com>

> On Sat, Mar 2, 2013 at 4:00 AM,   "spike" <spike at rainier66.com>> wrote:
> Keith it shouldn't surprise us that food is evolving.  In the marketplace,
> only the most enticing and most profitable foods survive.  The article you

In nature, only the fastest-running or stealthiest foods survive.

Obviously we shouldn't eat poison.  Poisons that taste good and kill
us slowly are not so obvious.


From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Mar  3 02:43:42 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sat, 2 Mar 2013 18:43:42 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bees again
Message-ID: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>

 

Well this is a sad thing, unusual perhaps for my normal disposition when
writing a post titled bees again.

 

A few years ago, I think it was about 2006, I noticed a number of bees dying
on sidewalks.  I had the notion of starting an online bee-watcher group.  As
I was trying to organize that, I found someone else had thought of the same
idea about the same time I did, and was more competent, so we had the great
sunflower project.  The idea was to have observers plant sunflowers, all the
same species, then use those as a common standard by which to compare and
observe.  A donor was found, the seeds purchased and distributed, but the
native species did far worse than we expected.  My first attempt had exactly
one seed of about 100 that germinated.  That phase of the experiment failed.

 

Next a group of us realized we could use the standards already in place in
our own neighborhoods, citrus trees, lavenders, garden flowers, any
spring-blooming plant would do as a standard if we pay attention and take
notes in a consistent manner.  This worked well, but suddenly our
bee-watcher group collapsed because of circumstances tragically beyond our
control.  The timing of that collapse was  even more unfortunate because of
the apparent off-the-charts numbers of bee deaths this year.  I had the
highest bee count this year of any of the other years.

 

I mentioned on 1 January that I was out walking and found several hundred
dead bees within about a 20 meter radius.  I collected about 50 to 60 of
these to offer to anyone who had the equipment to study them.  I wrote to
three different university entomology departments but no one wanted them.  I
still have those bees.

 

I realized that any random bee death would likely go unnoticed.  The ones I
found happened to have perished on a sidewalk and a road, where they could
be seen.  But if you go into Google Earth, even in a dense suburb, close
your eyes and point to a place on your screen, chances are you will not
touch a road or a sidewalk.  Most mass bee deaths like this one would likely
go unnoticed, since the bees would be on the grass or in an undeveloped
area.

 

In any case, my bee death counts have been huge this year, just when our
online group is not available, so I am sailing uncharted waters alone as I
report the following observation: the live bee count right now is waaaaay
down, way down.  Everything is in full bloom here in central California, the
weather has been warm, the trees should be buzzing with ravenous bees right
now.  I see a few.  But I would estimate the bee count at about a tenth what
I have seen in years past.  It is waaay down below normal.

 

So now what?  The Europeans think it could be Imidacloprid causing this.
Beekeepers feed their bees in the winter after they take the honey in the
fall.  The cheapest source of bee-feed is corn syrup, but it is entirely
possible that Imidacloprid or some other neonicotinoid is being sprayed on
the corn, which is finding its way into the corn syrup, then ending up in
the bees, which lose their way and perish after failing to find their way
home.  It is still under investigation here in the states, but the
observations I have made convince me we are seeing something completely new.
Our online group isn't around right when we need it the most.  Perhaps we
need to rejoin the Great Sunflower Project from which our sub-study
originally sprang.  I haven't posted to the Sunflower Project because I
didn't use sunflowers, and my observations are informal.  I could be wrong
about this, but I would estimate at this point I am seeing perhaps a third
to a tenth the bee count of past years.  Unfortunately I failed to make my
observations more formal, with dates and bee counts, damn.  If we really are
seeing bee counts as low as I fear they are, this spells trouble for food
production.

 

What do we do now, coach?

 

spike

 

 

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From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Mar  3 21:01:15 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sun, 3 Mar 2013 13:01:15 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of spike
Subject: [ExI] bees again

 

 

>.  The timing of that collapse was  even more unfortunate because of the
apparent off-the-charts numbers of bee deaths this year.  I had the highest
bee [death] count this year of any of the other years. spike

 

Well I just returned from a 3 hr bee watching exercise.  The honeybees are
missing in action this year, almost completely gone.  I found one of my
standard trees that should be buzzing with hungry bees today, a perfect bee
day, 70F, light breeze, clear skies, perfect.  That tree had exactly one
bee.

 

In my back yard, I noticed the minority bees are now the majority: the
secondary pollinators which do about 5% of the pollinating, the
ground-dwelling non-colonizers, are now in the majority.

 

I have a job for all of you, if you are willing: go find a standard
somewhere, something that you can make notes on date, time, weather
conditions and bee counts.  I fear we have done something to reaaaally screw
our bees this time, something really bad.  I need to know if it is a local
phenomenon, something I can contact the city parks and grounds department,
see if they are spraying something new and improved, or if it is widespread.

 

Do it please, it's important, davai^3.

 

spike

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From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Mar  3 22:45:23 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 3 Mar 2013 22:45:23 +0000
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
 <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhpfyjhbJXNH6N0Xv158CUJy8Vd-iEnFueJW57sN_w38w@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Mar 3, 2013 at 9:01 PM, spike wrote:
> In my back yard, I noticed the minority bees are now the majority: the
> secondary pollinators which do about 5% of the pollinating, the
> ground-dwelling non-colonizers, are now in the majority.
>
> I have a job for all of you, if you are willing: go find a standard
> somewhere, something that you can make notes on date, time, weather
> conditions and bee counts.  I fear we have done something to reaaaally screw
> our bees this time, something really bad.  I need to know if it is a local
> phenomenon, something I can contact the city parks and grounds department,
> see if they are spraying something new and improved, or if it is widespread.
>

Well, it's still winter in England with night time 32F temperatures.
The nice weather girl has promised spring temperatures for later in
the week.  :)

But a bit of searching reports.......
Farmers have planted more almond trees in California as the price of
almonds has increased. Not many honeybee hives are permanent in
California, so most of the hives are imported just for the pollinating
seasons. There are reports that the bees might be spread too thin this
year due to the increased acreage and the increased price of renting
hives. This implies that the bees will probably not stray much outside
their orchards.

Officially nobody is reporting a disastrous shortage of bees this year.

BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Mar  4 00:07:54 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sun, 3 Mar 2013 16:07:54 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhpfyjhbJXNH6N0Xv158CUJy8Vd-iEnFueJW57sN_w38w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
 <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhpfyjhbJXNH6N0Xv158CUJy8Vd-iEnFueJW57sN_w38w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <001801ce186c$51f701c0$f5e50540$@rainier66.com>

>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] bees again

On Sun, Mar 3, 2013 at 9:01 PM, spike wrote:
>>... In my back yard, I noticed the minority bees are now the majority: the

> secondary pollinators which do about 5% of the pollinating, the 
> ground-dwelling non-colonizers, are now in the majority.
...

>... There are reports that the bees might be spread too thin this year due
to the increased acreage and the increased price of renting hives. This
implies that the bees will probably not stray much outside their orchards.
>...Officially nobody is reporting a disastrous shortage of bees this
year....BillK
_______________________________________________

OK well I just returned from a trip to Sunnyvale and Palo Alto with the
intention of inspecting some bee hives and talking to beekeepers.  The
teenage bee guy I talked to knew nothing of any neonicotinoid anything, and
had too little experience to be much help.  I inspected his hives and found
all but one was underactive for today's conditions, which were perfect, with
ornamental cherries in full bloom.  Those are a good early benchmark because
the bees are very hungry when they blossom.  In other years, I can stand
under those trees and immerse myself in the buzz of a thousand wings going
about their beesness.  In Sunnyvale, many of these trees had no bees in
them.  It seems like most of the cherry trees had exactly one bee.

I visited Sunnyvale's community farm, and found the bee activity apparently
way below normal for such a perfect day.  I contacted a former college
classmate who runs a farm, and learned that he is having a great deal of
difficulty getting enough bees to rent for his blueberries.

The imidacloprid theory agrees well enough with my own observations now that
I make the following friendly but earnest request: stop buying honey
immediately.  Reasoning: the price of honey is waaaay up this year, way up.
The high prices will encourage beekeepers to extract all the honey they can
get for sale, then feed the bees with corn syrup, which could have traces of
imidacloprid which was sprayed on the corn, which could contribute to the
bees losing their way and perishing of exposure.  If people stop buying
honey (much of which is likely counterfeit anyway, or is being mixed with
corn syrup) then the price of honey will drop, making it less financially
attractive for the beekeepers to extract.  Then the bees will survive the
winters on their own honey, and will be less likely to be exposed to
neonicotinoids.  The bee keepers will still make a fine living by renting
their hives to farmers.  

Please do your part: stop buying honey.  If you are moved to do more than
your part, post to friends and family on your distribution and ask them to
stop eating honey as well.  Explain your reasoning, or forward my post if
you wish.

spike



From mrjones2020 at gmail.com  Mon Mar  4 01:36:23 2013
From: mrjones2020 at gmail.com (J.R. Jones)
Date: Sun, 3 Mar 2013 20:36:23 -0500
Subject: [ExI] BBC on space solar
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB5GZ9WXsmhOB5cz0aXDrxR85G16fHZBdGRFNhgMNGwa9Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB5GZ9WXsmhOB5cz0aXDrxR85G16fHZBdGRFNhgMNGwa9Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CADDVf2Lkh=nvFsO4Hcd3Akmd155Ec1349z-9+a8C3GCP93TQPA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 28, 2013 at 11:01 AM, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com>wrote:

> Until recently, a year ago, there was no way known for the project to
> make sense in economic terms.
>

This is only the case because we don't truly count all the costs associated
with our current energies.  We don't weigh ecological costs, health costs,
etc.  Just cost at the pump/end user.  Our ignorance will end up being the
most expensive part of all this in the end.
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From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Mon Mar  4 01:44:31 2013
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Sun, 03 Mar 2013 20:44:31 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Starfield visualizations
Message-ID: <201303040145.r241jXvf012932@reva.xtremeunix.com>

What desktop software or web site can you recommend for starfield
visualization? I want to choose a date, a location either within the
solar system or elsewhere, see the night sky as it would appear,
be able to check the magnitude of objects, etc.

For example, looking towards the Sun on 1 Jan 3000 from Triton,
how bright would the Earth appear and where would it seem to be
located?


-- David.



From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Mar  4 02:12:44 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sun, 3 Mar 2013 18:12:44 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <001801ce186c$51f701c0$f5e50540$@rainier66.com>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
 <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhpfyjhbJXNH6N0Xv158CUJy8Vd-iEnFueJW57sN_w38w@mail.gmail.com>
 <001801ce186c$51f701c0$f5e50540$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <003b01ce187d$c287ee70$4797cb50$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of spike
....

>...Please do your part: stop buying honey.  If you are moved to do more
than your part, post to friends and family on your distribution and ask them
to stop eating honey as well.  Explain your reasoning, or forward my post if
you wish...spike

_______________________________________________


In case there are any here laboring under the illusion that honey is
healthier than sugar, do let me assure you, from the point of view of your
digestive system it is indistinguishable from sugar or corn syrup.  The bees
do better on their own honey however, and are less susceptible to trace
amounts of pesticides and herbicides if we don't give them corn syrup to
replace the honey they take from them.  Health food enthusiasts, I do urge
you to do without sweetener rather than use honey.  

The imidacloprid theory might be wrong, the evidence ambiguous, but it does
explain the swarm I saw apparently lost and perishing of exposure, as well
as maaany dying bees this year, so it might be right.  I would suggest we
not risk contributing to crashing the bee population by buying high-priced
honey, which caused bees to be fed with contaminated corn syrup.  If we
crash the bee population, we get little fruit.  The consequences will be
most unpleasant.

spike



From msd001 at gmail.com  Mon Mar  4 03:14:23 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Sun, 3 Mar 2013 22:14:23 -0500
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <003b01ce187d$c287ee70$4797cb50$@rainier66.com>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
 <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhpfyjhbJXNH6N0Xv158CUJy8Vd-iEnFueJW57sN_w38w@mail.gmail.com>
 <001801ce186c$51f701c0$f5e50540$@rainier66.com>
 <003b01ce187d$c287ee70$4797cb50$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdb+VSpb-iK0soPxDjfujBQ1szu4mfkGQOXrYm-6LwbPPGg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Mar 3, 2013 at 9:12 PM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
>>...Please do your part: stop buying honey.  If you are moved to do more
> than your part, post to friends and family on your distribution and ask them
> to stop eating honey as well.  Explain your reasoning, or forward my post if
> you wish...spike
> _______________________________________________
>
> The imidacloprid theory might be wrong, the evidence ambiguous, but it does
> explain the swarm I saw apparently lost and perishing of exposure, as well
> as maaany dying bees this year, so it might be right.  I would suggest we
> not risk contributing to crashing the bee population by buying high-priced
> honey, which caused bees to be fed with contaminated corn syrup.  If we
> crash the bee population, we get little fruit.  The consequences will be
> most unpleasant.

Can you make a couple infographics showing the farmer robbing bees and
leaving them corn syrup, then some bees too week to pollinate fruit
trees, then consumers paying too much for fruit?

I can't forward your email on Facebook: even 2 paragraphs is TL;DR.
An infographic can be posted & shared as well as tweeted and pinned.

I can think of designs but I don't think I can implement.

Anyone?


From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Mar  4 05:19:53 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sun, 3 Mar 2013 21:19:53 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdb+VSpb-iK0soPxDjfujBQ1szu4mfkGQOXrYm-6LwbPPGg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
 <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhpfyjhbJXNH6N0Xv158CUJy8Vd-iEnFueJW57sN_w38w@mail.gmail.com>
 <001801ce186c$51f701c0$f5e50540$@rainier66.com>
 <003b01ce187d$c287ee70$4797cb50$@rainier66.com>
 <CAOJFdb+VSpb-iK0soPxDjfujBQ1szu4mfkGQOXrYm-6LwbPPGg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <005a01ce1897$e76494e0$b62dbea0$@rainier66.com>

>... On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty
Subject: Re: [ExI] bees again

On Sun, Mar 3, 2013 at 9:12 PM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
>>...Please do your part: stop buying honey.  If you are moved to do 
>>more than your part, post to friends and family on your distribution and 
> ask them to stop eating honey as well.  Explain your reasoning, or 
> forward my post if you wish...spike 

______________________________________________
>>... The imidacloprid theory might be wrong, the evidence ambiguous, but it
does explain ... spike

>...Can you make a couple infographics showing the farmer robbing bees and
leaving them corn syrup, then some bees too week to pollinate fruit trees,
then consumers paying too much for fruit?  Mike



Thanks Mike, right idea, slight correction please, an important one.

The practice of extracting honey then feeding the bees on sugar water, corn
syrup, other similar substitutes, is very common and goes way back.  It
works.  I worked for a beekeeper in my misspent youth who managed to get
several restaurant owners to sell him waste pancake syrup.  He fed his bees
on that over the winter.  Arguing against taking off honey will likely
produce nothing but pushback, especially now when raw honey is bringing in
over 6 bucks a pound in some spot markets this year, a cool fortune to poor
beekeepers, liquid gold.  Taking the honey and feeding them with a cheaper
substitute generally will not weaken the bees.  Unless...

...Unless the substitute has some kind of pesticide that can accumulate over
time in the hives and in the brood, and at some concentration the material
impacts the bee's navigation system such that a swarm becomes disoriented
and cannot find the way home.  Bees navigate by mysterious means; we don't
know the mechanisms which can mess up that system.  Bayer may have
accidentally stumbled onto something which does exactly that, an unintended
harmful consequence.  Can anyone think of an alternate explanation for that
swarm I saw on 1 January where the bees  were on the ground, about 80% dead
of apparent exposure, no signs of ageing on any of them that I could tell,
no obvious internal parasites, no varroa mites, no tracheal mites that I
could find (although the results are not conclusive: I examined only four
bees and I don't know what I am doing.  I tried slicing off the heads and
peering down the trachea with my microscope, but for all I know I could have
been peering down their carotid arteries, assuming bees have carotid
arteries.  I didn't see anything that looked like tracheal mites in there.)
So these bees apparently just couldn't find their way home, so when it was
dark, they just landed and perished of exposure.  A few (6 to 8) were still
alive when I collected the 50 to 60 specimens.

With honey prices thru the roof, and knowing that most beekeepers are very
poor, it is unlikely to help anything if we go about this the wrong way.
Beekeepers now make most of their living renting their hives to fruit
growers.  Back when I was a teen, it was very nearly balanced: the beekeeper
wasn't paid by the citrus guy but he didn't need to rent the fruit trees
either; he made his living off of extracted honey.  Over the years the
balances have consistently tipped in the beekeepers favor: he can rent his
hives easily and close to home.  But honey extractions are still an
important part of his income, especially now when prices are high.  My
notion is to get people to stop buying honey so the price will drop back
down low enough that it isn't worth the labor and extractor investment to
take off the honey.  They just let the bees survive the winter eating their
own stored honey.

I don't know anything about infographics.  But if we do something like that,
it must emphasize that all we can do is to not buy honey, for every time we
buy a jar, that creates demand and that drives up prices, beekeepers take
off as much as they can, feed with something that might contain imidacloprid
or one of the others specifically used on corn which doesn't rely on bees
(corn is pollinated by wind), which might contribute to colony collapse
disorder.  It might be far worse than that, if the neonicotinoids accumulate
over time in the structure of the hives and in the brood, as some
entomologists have suggested.  For the citrus industry and plenty of other
crops, Imidacloprid might be a ticking time-bomb.

Mike I like your idea of a facebook graphic.  In the meantime, If honey is
on the table at a restaurant, don't eat it.  And don't buy any.  Call your
mother and request to do ye likewise.  

spike






From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Mar  4 10:42:30 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 4 Mar 2013 10:42:30 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Starfield visualizations
In-Reply-To: <201303040145.r241jXvf012932@reva.xtremeunix.com>
References: <201303040145.r241jXvf012932@reva.xtremeunix.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjNk7Rh7Ou53373LobJF8=bBw8o9Aq-R7EZKzUJkcGeZw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 4, 2013 at 1:44 AM, David Lubkin  wrote:
> What desktop software or web site can you recommend for starfield
> visualization? I want to choose a date, a location either within the
> solar system or elsewhere, see the night sky as it would appear,
> be able to check the magnitude of objects, etc.
>
> For example, looking towards the Sun on 1 Jan 3000 from Triton,
> how bright would the Earth appear and where would it seem to be
> located?
>

Most astronomy software is basically a planetarium for your pc. They
vary in content. Some include satellites and some have more detailed
indexes than others and some have photos of more stellar objects than
others. So if your requirements change, you may need to try different
software. There is a wide selection!

For your specific example, try Celestia.
<http://www.shatters.net/celestia/>


BillK


From alfio.puglisi at gmail.com  Mon Mar  4 10:39:02 2013
From: alfio.puglisi at gmail.com (Alfio Puglisi)
Date: Mon, 4 Mar 2013 11:39:02 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Starfield visualizations
In-Reply-To: <201303040145.r241jXvf012932@reva.xtremeunix.com>
References: <201303040145.r241jXvf012932@reva.xtremeunix.com>
Message-ID: <CAJUeD7gBrD3BUqXZbYoaWhOMxpFAg1aeQDALDjpk395SjjGQCg@mail.gmail.com>

Have you tried Celestia?  http://www.shatters.net/celestia/
Runs on windows, mac and linux.
You can get some pretty amazing displays. Setting the location to Triton,
date 1/1/3000 and centering the view in the direction of Earth only takes
one minute, although it does not seem to recalculate planets' apparent
magnitudes...

Alfio

On Mon, Mar 4, 2013 at 2:44 AM, David Lubkin <lubkin at unreasonable.com>wrote:

> What desktop software or web site can you recommend for starfield
> visualization? I want to choose a date, a location either within the
> solar system or elsewhere, see the night sky as it would appear,
> be able to check the magnitude of objects, etc.
>
> For example, looking towards the Sun on 1 Jan 3000 from Triton,
> how bright would the Earth appear and where would it seem to be
> located?
>
>
> -- David.
>
> ______________________________**_________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/**mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-**chat<http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat>
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Mar  4 11:26:10 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 4 Mar 2013 11:26:10 +0000
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <001801ce186c$51f701c0$f5e50540$@rainier66.com>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
 <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhpfyjhbJXNH6N0Xv158CUJy8Vd-iEnFueJW57sN_w38w@mail.gmail.com>
 <001801ce186c$51f701c0$f5e50540$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhmtvF23kWGcxr35KsHKsTPeSR5UT_FSXtxCDv_Z=oDnA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 4, 2013 at 12:07 AM, spike  wrote:
<snip>
> If people stop buying
> honey (much of which is likely counterfeit anyway, or is being mixed with
> corn syrup) then the price of honey will drop, making it less financially
> attractive for the beekeepers to extract.


I've just noticed a report that says your much-loved sushi is probably
counterfeit as well.

<http://wtfrly.com/2013/03/04/first-horsemeat-trading-now-59-of-tuna-sold-in-the-u-s-isnt-tuna/>
Quote:
New Study Shows 59% of ?Tuna? Sold in the U.S. Isn?t Tuna

This is just the latest revelation in the stealth inflation and food
fraud theme I have written about frequently in recent months.  The
non-profit group Oceana took samples of 1,215 fish sold in the U.S.
and genetic tests found that that 59% of those labeled tuna were
mislabelled.
-------------------


BillK



From anders at aleph.se  Mon Mar  4 11:58:09 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 04 Mar 2013 11:58:09 +0000
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhmtvF23kWGcxr35KsHKsTPeSR5UT_FSXtxCDv_Z=oDnA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
 <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhpfyjhbJXNH6N0Xv158CUJy8Vd-iEnFueJW57sN_w38w@mail.gmail.com>
 <001801ce186c$51f701c0$f5e50540$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhmtvF23kWGcxr35KsHKsTPeSR5UT_FSXtxCDv_Z=oDnA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <51348C51.5020302@aleph.se>

On 04/03/2013 11:26, BillK wrote:
> This is just the latest revelation in the stealth inflation and food 
> fraud theme I have written about frequently in recent months.

Nah, food fraud have always been with us. Today we are just seeing the 
collision of 1) very long and complex supply chains, 2) much better 
detection methods thanks to DNA fingerprinting, and 3) the ability to do 
very broad media reporting. The result is that things look much worse 
when it might actually be improving (a bit like crime).

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From painlord2k at libero.it  Mon Mar  4 12:54:12 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Mon, 04 Mar 2013 13:54:12 +0100
Subject: [ExI] insanity plea
In-Reply-To: <CAH=2ypWqFETr53rSp7Luss4XrZum3oFEYCemKg09OJb_y8ueCw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <011201ce0d7c$f753c090$e5fb41b0$@att.net> <51220700.802@aleph.se>
 <CAPoR7a71d2cTaQoW=WzdY=y7C-Q0JLh9Pvfb-93Bh3+kr_KxGQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <010f01ce12a4$92ec0180$b8c40480$@rainier66.com> <512A4637.3010208@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv3TdWup9aKsAX=TXt7WuBaeixxMbMD50bgavr+3+FSQ3A@mail.gmail.com>
 <512D4F5A.4010008@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv1RXVuuuvjKckWNFud+Kw+S-bFdWKR+-3O5m3W+SjqtAA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAH=2ypVKw6101UMVygvnYVCpzjJ7bLqqG0GY=sm071uY+8LwuQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2vV7Dk436zvwWGAYs9t3hn=VySW+-ez1gH8CD25kOm1g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAH=2ypWqFETr53rSp7Luss4XrZum3oFEYCemKg09OJb_y8ueCw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <51349974.5040209@libero.it>

Il 01/03/2013 02:42, Stathis Papaioannou ha scritto:
> On Fri, Mar 1, 2013 at 8:21 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

>> My mental malfunction has been repaired and I am quite literally not the
>> same man I was, so if the doctors can say beyond a reasonable doubt that I
>> am no more likely to murder again than the general population then I should
>> be released. However in the real world the thought experiment you describe
>> almost never happens,  and I'm not sure if I should have said "almost".

> The case I have described is of a treatable organic psychosis.

It is a treatable organic psychosis but the subject almost never happen
to experience these hallucinations out of the blue. His conditions
deteriorate in a long time.
If he had the time/means to seek help for his condition he should have
done it. If he didn't do it, he is probable to not seeking help in the
same situation, so he is more dangerous for others than an individual
looking for help in the same situation.

> Much
> more commonly involved in forensic cases are the so-called functional
> psychoses such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. These can also
> be treated very effectively with medication in at least 70% of cases,
> but the problem is that the symptoms recur if the medication stops.
> There are ways to guarantee the patient is medicated, for example with
> monthly injections.

The problem is many of these patients have a long history of
discontinuing their medications. What to do with an individual declared
"not guilty" but dangerous when he discontinue his medications?
Do you arrest him and jail him as soon as he try to avoid to be
medicated or refuse to take his pills? And how much do you keep him in
jail for skipping his drugs?

Mirco



From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Mar  4 13:17:37 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 4 Mar 2013 13:17:37 +0000
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <51348C51.5020302@aleph.se>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
 <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhpfyjhbJXNH6N0Xv158CUJy8Vd-iEnFueJW57sN_w38w@mail.gmail.com>
 <001801ce186c$51f701c0$f5e50540$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhmtvF23kWGcxr35KsHKsTPeSR5UT_FSXtxCDv_Z=oDnA@mail.gmail.com>
 <51348C51.5020302@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armh-L564AYGLHTSpvHfz27v_jjz-B9TBGLSurVKv63G3Dg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 4, 2013 at 11:58 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> Nah, food fraud have always been with us. Today we are just seeing the
> collision of 1) very long and complex supply chains, 2) much better
> detection methods thanks to DNA fingerprinting, and 3) the ability to do
> very broad media reporting. The result is that things look much worse when
> it might actually be improving (a bit like crime).
>
>

Yes, but.......
In earlier times contaminated food was mostly due to a lack of
regulation (and a lack of knowledge about bacteria). But nowadays,
food fraud is deliberate ignoring of regulations for profit. i.e.
criminal intent. As the saying goes, if you buy 10 burgers for a pound
you are lucky if there is any meat at all in them, even horse meat.
The article is also referring to commercial practices, like, reducing
the weight of package contents slightly, putting small amounts in a
larger box, reducing the alcohol contents of drinks, etc.

I agree that crime stats have to be read very carefully. If you take
iPhone thefts out of 'crimes of violence', there's not much left!  :)


BillK


From fortean1 at mindspring.com  Mon Mar  4 09:09:16 2013
From: fortean1 at mindspring.com (Terry W. Colvin)
Date: Mon, 4 Mar 2013 16:09:16 +0700 (GMT+07:00)
Subject: [ExI] The Scientific Study of UFOs
Message-ID: <11290374.1362388156955.JavaMail.root@elwamui-karabash.atl.sa.earthlink.net>

This is an extract of my college term paper: 

Hostile Skeptics and True Believers -- A Fortean Approach 
Terry W. Colvin 
Western International University 
CAP 485 Integrated Capstone 
Professor -- Dr. Loyd Ray Ganey Jr. April 29, 2004 

I now have a BA in Behavioral Science.

Terry 




              The Scientific Study of UFOs 

Careful reading of the full report reveals that 25-33 percent 
of the reports remained unsolved.  Condon's personal views and 
his laissez-faire oversight contributed to the personality 
conflicts, hypocrisy, and incompetence of the work and to the 
overall negative tone of the report's executive summary 
(conclusion).  Media reviewers read only the conclusion 
and scanned the numerous technical chapters thereby contri-
buting to downplaying any need for further study. Case studies 
and a brief history of UFOs lead to the "scientific context" 
chapters, e.g. perception and reporting, optics, radar, sonic 
boom, atmospheric electricity and plasma, and balloons. 
Twenty-four appendices give the flavor of U.S. government 
handling of UFO reports from the late 1940s through the 
late 1960s. Critics such as Dr. J. Allen Hynek, USAF con-
sultant on Project Blue Book, and Dr. James E. McDonald, a 
University of Arizona atmospheric physicist, stated the 
Condon Report was a setup to rid the USAF of its public 
relations nightmare and that some allegedly explained cases 
were actually unknowns, respectively. See web site: 
< http://www.ncas.org/condon/ > for the complete study 
on-line (Condon, 1969). "The 1968 Scientific Study of 
Unidentified Flying Objects is presented complete with 
graphics, equations and photographs. This was the final 
report of a US Air Force-funded university study per-
formed by Edward U. Condon et al. It is sometimes called 
"Project Blue Book", named after the Air Force structure 
for handling UFO reports prior to 1966." [Published review 
of Terry W. Colvin in Fortean Times] The U.S. Air Force 
beat a hasty retreat out of the official UFO business 
following an independent evaluation of its work by the 
University of Colorado. Headed by physicist Edward Condon, 
the two-year Scientific Study of Unidentified Flying Objects
drew three conclusions: 

1) UFOs didn't represent a technology beyond the 1969 level 
of understanding; 
2) they didn't threaten national security; and 
3) continued study of the phenomenon probably wouldn't 
contribute anything to modern science (Condon, 1969). 

Statement by Dr. McDonald: "The Condon Report, released in 
January, 1968, after about two years of Air Force-supported 
study is, in my opinion, quite inadequate.  The sheer bulk 
of the Report, and the inclusion of much that can only be 
viewed as "scientific padding", cannot conceal from anyone 
who studies it closely the salient point that it represents 
an examination of only a tiny fraction of the most puzzling 
UFO reports of the past two decades, and that its level of 
scientific argumentation is wholly unsatisfactory. Further-
more, of the roughly 90 cases that it specifically confronts, 
over 30 are conceded to be unexplained.  With so large a 
fraction of unexplained cases (out of a sample that is by 
no means limited only to the truly puzzling cases, but 
includes an objectionably large number of obviously trivial 
cases), it is far from clear how Dr. Condon felt justified 
in concluding that the study indicated "that further 
extensive study of UFOs probably cannot be justified in the 
expectation that science will be advanced thereby (Condon, 1969).


This email was cleaned by emailStripper, available for free from http://www.papercut.biz/emailStripper.htm


Terry W. Colvin
Ladphrao (Bangkok), Thailand
Pran Buri (Hua Hin), Thailand
http://terrycolvin.freewebsites.com/
[Terry's Fortean & "Work" itty-bitty site]


From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Mar  4 14:34:15 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Mon, 4 Mar 2013 06:34:15 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhmtvF23kWGcxr35KsHKsTPeSR5UT_FSXtxCDv_Z=oDnA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
 <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhpfyjhbJXNH6N0Xv158CUJy8Vd-iEnFueJW57sN_w38w@mail.gmail.com>
 <001801ce186c$51f701c0$f5e50540$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhmtvF23kWGcxr35KsHKsTPeSR5UT_FSXtxCDv_Z=oDnA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <005901ce18e5$594ba470$0be2ed50$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
Sent: Monday, March 04, 2013 3:26 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] bees again

On Mon, Mar 4, 2013 at 12:07 AM, spike  wrote:
<snip>
> If people stop buying
> honey (much of which is likely counterfeit anyway, or is being mixed 
> with corn syrup) then the price of honey will drop, making it less 
> financially attractive for the beekeepers to extract.


I've just noticed a report that says your much-loved sushi is probably counterfeit as well.

<http://wtfrly.com/2013/03/04/first-horsemeat-trading-now-59-of-tuna-sold-in-the-u-s-isnt-tuna/>
Quote:
New Study Shows 59% of ?Tuna? Sold in the U.S. Isn?t Tuna

-------------------
BillK

_______________________________________________



Mmmmmm... suuuuuuushhiiiiiii....

Hi BillK, ja, I suspected that, but it doesn't bother me, I love the stuff anyway.  A good sushi chef can dress up pretty much any beast and make it good.

I see this as fundamentally differing from my reasoning for avoiding honey.  Nutritionally corn syrup and honey is indistinguishable, but I now suspect honey extraction could be harming the bees.  I will have more data today, for I am going back over to Sunnyvale to visit some of my index trees.  I think the problem might be more localized, and I have a suspect, which I will share this evening.

spike




From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Mar  4 14:34:51 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 4 Mar 2013 14:34:51 +0000
Subject: [ExI] The Transhumanist Reader to be published 29 Apr 2013
Message-ID: <CAL_armjfoS2r9peDvvaagKrdg_aS-WZzUWGGb0Twqak8LwKxJw@mail.gmail.com>

The Transhumanist Reader: Classical and Contemporary Essays on the
Science, Technology, and Philosophy of the Human Future, edited by Max
More and Natasha Vita-More, will be published April 29, 2013.

It is the ?first authoritative and comprehensive survey of the origins
and current state of transhumanist thinking, according to the editors,
and the anthology includes a roster of leaders in transhumanist
thought.
<http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-transhumanist-reader-is-first-overview-of-transhumanist-thought>

------------------------

The price seems a bit high to me, but I'm like that!  ;)
but you can pre-order at a discount from Amazon.
<http://www.amazon.com/The-Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-Technology/dp/1118334310>

Russell Blackford (one of the contributors) gives a quick mention on his blog.
<http://blog.talkingphilosophy.com/?p=6837>
Quote:
The authors are something of a who?s who of thinkers who have
contributed in one capacity or another to the transhumanist movement
or to discussion of emerging technologies and human enhancement in
general. Many of these people would be widely regarded as coming from
different factions or schools of thought, and some may not even like
each other all that much, so this is going to be a diverse book.
Contributing authors, apart from the two editors (and myself,
obviously) include Nick Bostrom, Anders Sandberg, Martine Rothblatt,
James Hughes, Laura Beloff, Aubrey de Grey, Damien Broderick? and many
others of similar calibre, with claims to be intellectual leaders in
this area.
------------


BillK



From anders at aleph.se  Mon Mar  4 15:07:57 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 04 Mar 2013 15:07:57 +0000
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armh-L564AYGLHTSpvHfz27v_jjz-B9TBGLSurVKv63G3Dg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
 <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhpfyjhbJXNH6N0Xv158CUJy8Vd-iEnFueJW57sN_w38w@mail.gmail.com>
 <001801ce186c$51f701c0$f5e50540$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhmtvF23kWGcxr35KsHKsTPeSR5UT_FSXtxCDv_Z=oDnA@mail.gmail.com>
 <51348C51.5020302@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armh-L564AYGLHTSpvHfz27v_jjz-B9TBGLSurVKv63G3Dg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5134B8CD.6060704@aleph.se>

On 04/03/2013 13:17, BillK wrote:
> On Mon, Mar 4, 2013 at 11:58 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
>> Nah, food fraud have always been with us. Today we are just seeing the
>> collision of 1) very long and complex supply chains, 2) much better
>> detection methods thanks to DNA fingerprinting, and 3) the ability to do
>> very broad media reporting. The result is that things look much worse when
>> it might actually be improving (a bit like crime).
> Yes, but.......
> In earlier times contaminated food was mostly due to a lack of
> regulation (and a lack of knowledge about bacteria). But nowadays,
> food fraud is deliberate ignoring of regulations for profit. i.e.
> criminal intent.

Read up on the history of food fraud. People have been lying about what 
they have been selling (illegal) since forever - the Romans and Greek 
had laws instituted to deal with wine and olive oil adulteration. Check out:
http://www.pbs.plymouth.ac.uk/PLR/vol1/Shears_proofedv.pdf
http://www.amazon.com/Swindled-History-Poisoned-Counterfeit-Coffee/dp/0691138206
http://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=mXVu-sTiSIUC&oi=fnd&pg=PA77&dq=history+%22food+fraud%22&ots=EcxIyfMXRr&sig=8lyefAyoN9RpSjRposO5bZDzdDg#v=onepage&q=history%20%22food%20fraud%22&f=false

More academic:
http://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/foodlj39&div=7&g_sent=1&collection=journals
http://www.jstor.org/stable/4285958
http://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/foodlj57&div=40&g_sent=1&collection=journals
http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1525/ncl.2003.57.4.477

It is a fun topic.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University



From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Mar  4 14:48:08 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 4 Mar 2013 14:48:08 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Toyota i-Road - full-enclosed, tilting, electric three-wheeler
Message-ID: <CAL_armgvaEwchYiCsA4rNH=0UeGYGwcTOUMotQ+ubbQEV++HXw@mail.gmail.com>

Looks like Toyota are going to produce Spike's futuristic electric
city transport.


<http://www.gizmag.com/toyota-i-road-full-enclosed-tilting-electric-three-wheeler/26498/>
Quote:
The i-ROAD incorporates what Toyota is calling Toyota ?Active Lean?
technology, which "automatically balances the vehicle when cornering
or travelling over stepped surfaces" according to the press statement.

The 850mm width of the i-ROAD is no greater than a conventional
two-wheeler, making i-ROAD as easy to manoeuvre as a scooter or
motorcycle through urban traffic, meaning that Toyota, the world's
largest automotive manufacturer, looks set to create a competitor to
the motorcycle, but with greater comfort, stability and safety.

The i-ROAD's electric powertrain is only good for a range of 30 miles,
but can be recharged from a conventional power supply in just three
hours

Seating two in tandem and under cover, i-ROAD is an electric vehicle
with a range of up to 30 miles (50km) on a single charge. Using
?Active Lean? technology, it is safe, intuitive and enjoyable to
drive, with no need for driver or passenger to wear a helmet.
--------------


BillK



From spike at rainier66.com  Tue Mar  5 00:27:36 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Mon, 4 Mar 2013 16:27:36 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Toyota i-Road - full-enclosed, tilting,
	electric three-wheeler
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgvaEwchYiCsA4rNH=0UeGYGwcTOUMotQ+ubbQEV++HXw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armgvaEwchYiCsA4rNH=0UeGYGwcTOUMotQ+ubbQEV++HXw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00f001ce1938$3d2c00c0$b7840240$@rainier66.com>

>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: [ExI] Toyota i-Road - full-enclosed, tilting, electric three-wheeler

>...Looks like Toyota are going to produce Spike's futuristic electric city transport...

Hmmm, maybe.  I hope they get this to work.  I think the two-front, one rear tricycle notion is workable and ideal from the standpoint of foot room, which is problematic with one wheel forward tricycle.  What worries me about it is that it might give away one of the big and necessary advantages of downscale ape-haulers: they could be really simple and cheap.  This device looks like it would be neither.  But I will wait and see.

A 30 mile range would work fine for some applications.

>... with no need for driver or passenger to wear a helmet...  BillK
--------------

This turns out to be a huge design driver.  Many people shower before work, and don't want to put their wet heads into a helmet.  A motorcycle is very exposed.  Traditional cars make one feel like one is wearing a helmet around the entire body.  I am hoping that modern plastics and airbag tech can give us that feeling of safety of wearing a body-helmet, and also some place to stow a firearm for additional safety.

spike




From rtomek at ceti.pl  Tue Mar  5 00:58:47 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Tue, 5 Mar 2013 01:58:47 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] The Scientific Study of UFOs
In-Reply-To: <11290374.1362388156955.JavaMail.root@elwamui-karabash.atl.sa.earthlink.net>
References: <11290374.1362388156955.JavaMail.root@elwamui-karabash.atl.sa.earthlink.net>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303050140090.19489@tau.ceti.pl>

On Mon, 4 Mar 2013, Terry W. Colvin wrote:

[...]
> relations nightmare and that some allegedly explained cases 
> were actually unknowns, respectively. See web site: 
> < http://www.ncas.org/condon/ > for the complete study 
> on-line (Condon, 1969). "The 1968 Scientific Study of 
> Unidentified Flying Objects is presented complete with 
> graphics, equations and photographs. This was the final 

Quite a lot of reading - they say, 1400 pages. I guess many people would 
like this report in a form of audiobook. Myself, I will have to find some 
converter to epub, so I could sift through it on my reader.

[...]
> University of Colorado. Headed by physicist Edward Condon, 
> the two-year Scientific Study of Unidentified Flying Objects
> drew three conclusions: 
> 
> 1) UFOs didn't represent a technology beyond the 1969 level 
> of understanding; 
> 2) they didn't threaten national security; and 
> 3) continued study of the phenomenon probably wouldn't 
> contribute anything to modern science (Condon, 1969). 

Yeah, that's the hell of conclusions. Just speculating, they could have 
made them without the burden of writing a report, too.

(I have never met UFO and have no links to them, so let's stop here).

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From max at maxmore.com  Tue Mar  5 01:41:30 2013
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Mon, 4 Mar 2013 18:41:30 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Progress
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2cO0+_eAk6HZSP7WEqyCA2JWy5fZsOkLCqcA7DC-ExnFA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <51300699.8060005@aleph.se>
 <013401ce1621$12021020$36063060$@rainier66.com>
 <51306C93.508@aleph.se>
 <CAM5aL2cO0+_eAk6HZSP7WEqyCA2JWy5fZsOkLCqcA7DC-ExnFA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJX-7wX6C5pdY=nXfvtAZzOnwBh-Hz0A0UwX-Y5o0Q0fzd1hEQ@mail.gmail.com>

I want to emphasize the importance of checking your vitamin D level. You
may be surprised.

I eat a diet much higher in fish and other good sources of D than average.
I also live in Arizona. (However, I have previously avoided significant
exposure to high-UV sunlight.)

In general, I would happily put my biomarkers up against those of anyone
else in their late 40s, but I was surprised and disturbed to find, in June
of 2012, that my vitamin D, 25-hydroxy levels were low: 16.6 ng/dL.
(Standard ranges suggest a healthy minimum of 30.) I'm not much of a
believer in supplements these days, but started supplementing with D, and
by December 2012 tripled my D levels. I'm also aiming to expose myself to
modest periods of sun, without sunblockers, when the UV index is at least 3
(the minimum for stimulating D production) but no more than 5. (That's a
short window here in Arizona during the spring and summer!).

This experience, together with the evidence I've seen, suggests that a very
large number of people (probably a majority) have excessively low D levels.
FYI, I am half-English, and half-Welsh in my immediate genetic background.
23andme places me solidly as of European/north European descent.

WARNING! Anecdotal evidence. I have always had a susceptibility to catching
colds (at least since the age of 10), which may well have to do with low D
levels. Over the last few months, while supplementing with vitamin D, I am
one of the few people among my co-workers and associates who has not
suffered from 'flu or a cold. Basically, what I'm saying is:

GET YOUR VITAMIN D 25-HYDROXY LEVELS CHECKED!

--Max



On Fri, Mar 1, 2013 at 1:13 PM, Dave Sill <sparge at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> *The skin produces vitamin D3 sulfate upon exposure to sunlight, and the
> vitamin D3 found in breast milk is also sulfated. In light of these facts,
> it is quite surprising to me that so little research has been directed
> towards understanding what role sulfated vitamin D3 plays in the body. It
> is recently becoming apparent that vitamin D3 promotes a strong immune
> system and offers protection against cancer, yet how it achieves these
> benefits is not at all clear. I strongly suspect that it is vitamin D3
> sulfate that carries out this aspect of vitamin D3's positive influence.*
> *
> *
> *Modern lifestyle practices conspire to induce major deficiencies in
> cholesterol sulfate and vitamin D3 sulfate. We are encouraged to actively
> avoid sun exposure and to minimize dietary intake of cholesterol-containing
> foods. We are encouraged to consume a high-carbohydrate/low-fat diet which,
> as I have argued previously (Seneff2010), leads to impaired cholesterol
> uptake in cells. We are told nothing about sulfur, yet many factors,
> ranging from the Clean Air Act to intensive farming to water softeners,
> deplete the supply of sulfur in our food and water.*
> *
> *
> *Fortunately, correcting these deficiencies at the individual level is
> easy and straightforward. If you just throw away the sunscreen and eat more
> eggs, those two steps alone may greatly increase your chances of living a
> long and healthy life.*
> *
> *
> -Dave
>
> _______________________________________________
>


-- 
Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
7895 E. Acoma Dr # 110
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
480/905-1906 ext 113
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From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Mar  5 10:32:22 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 5 Mar 2013 10:32:22 +0000
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <5134B8CD.6060704@aleph.se>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
 <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhpfyjhbJXNH6N0Xv158CUJy8Vd-iEnFueJW57sN_w38w@mail.gmail.com>
 <001801ce186c$51f701c0$f5e50540$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhmtvF23kWGcxr35KsHKsTPeSR5UT_FSXtxCDv_Z=oDnA@mail.gmail.com>
 <51348C51.5020302@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armh-L564AYGLHTSpvHfz27v_jjz-B9TBGLSurVKv63G3Dg@mail.gmail.com>
 <5134B8CD.6060704@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhxHravwWizpxbNCiC_ueYGTX0H-2En+6JzjvJQ5Mk2Fg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 4, 2013 at 3:07 PM, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
> Read up on the history of food fraud. People have been lying about what they
> have been selling (illegal) since forever - the Romans and Greek had laws
> instituted to deal with wine and olive oil adulteration. Check out:
> http://www.pbs.plymouth.ac.uk/PLR/vol1/Shears_proofedv.pdf
> http://www.amazon.com/Swindled-History-Poisoned-Counterfeit-Coffee/dp/0691138206

Agreed, that throughout history, everywhere people have traded, people
have swindled each other.
(One of the main objections to unregulated markets).

But in olden times, there were no fridges, so stuff was added to hide
the taste and smell of bad meat. Often life was a choice between
eating bad food or starving. People didn't wash, city streets were
running sewers and covered in filth and water was often polluted. Life
was short, brutal and nasty. If you were likely to be dead anyway by
30 or 40, then you had more important things to worry about than
honest food. Though attempts were indeed made to stop the worst frauds
of basic foods.


There is a difference in scale with food fraud today. Multi-national
corporations in league with governments are adulterating food in huge
volume across the whole world. Modern food processing is full of
adulteration, some allowed, some not. Like adding water to cold meat
products (allowed) or cheap fish substituting for expensive fish
(illegal).

Quote from Reuters:
    Multinational food, drink and alcohol companies are using
strategies similar to those employed by the tobacco industry to
undermine public health policies, health experts said on Tuesday.
    In an international analysis of involvement by so-called
?unhealthy commodity? companies in health policy-making, researchers
from Australia, Britain, Brazil and elsewhere said ? that through the
aggressive marketing of ultra-processed food and drink, multinational
companies were now major drivers of the world?s growing epidemic of
chronic diseases such as heart disease, cancer and diabetes.
    Writing in The Lancet medical journal, the researchers cited
industry documents they said revealed how companies seek to shape
health legislation and avoid regulation.
----------------


That's my main point - today's food adulteration is big business on an
industrial scale.


BillK



From painlord2k at libero.it  Tue Mar  5 12:56:30 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Tue, 05 Mar 2013 13:56:30 +0100
Subject: [ExI] insanity plea
In-Reply-To: <512ACA12.1090703@aleph.se>
References: <011201ce0d7c$f753c090$e5fb41b0$@att.net> <51220700.802@aleph.se>
 <CAPoR7a71d2cTaQoW=WzdY=y7C-Q0JLh9Pvfb-93Bh3+kr_KxGQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <010f01ce12a4$92ec0180$b8c40480$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNRykYs1jicwD=tos2OfDokJtevtk6WERJOGZg4DXeW16Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <005001ce12ca$ba735f20$2f5a1d60$@rainier66.com> <512ACA12.1090703@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <5135EB7E.4080705@libero.it>

Il 25/02/2013 03:18, Anders Sandberg ha scritto:
> On 24/02/2013 20:08, spike wrote:
>> Ja agree sir, but you understate your case in an important way. Just
>> the discussion of the possibility of restricting gun ownership to the
>> mentally ill would compel the mentally ill to refuse to seek treatment
>> for fear that they could lose the ability to purchase a firearm. 

> OK, maybe I am terribly European here, but that argument sounds pretty
> crazy to me. How many people regard their ability to buy guns more
> important than seeking treatment if they can?

I know of a patient showing himself at the psychiatric ward with an ax
because the psychiatrist refused to sign a certification he was healthy
enough to have a driver license. Obviously he ended in a psychiatric
hospital for criminally insane even if there was no one hurt.

And another patient forging his driver license because he was unable to
renew it.

> I could be able to see it in regards to driver's licences, since not
> having one in the US is presumably severely handicapping, so presumably
> people would not seek treatment for disorders that would impair their
> ability to get one. How many people avoid having their epilepsy or bad
> eyesight diagnosed because of this? Surely some, but enough to be a
> serious problem?

The same could be said about crazy people owning guns.
The great majority of psychiatric cases are less dangerous than common
people and never end in any psychiatric ward voluntarily or forcedly
committed. A little minority end in a psychiatric ward sometimes during
their life. And a smaller minority again is forcefully committed. Even
less are forcefully committed because they are violent and dangerous.

They are dangerous with a gun as much they are dangerous with a knife.

In my experience, the more dangerous are the psychopathics with low IQ.
They feel no empathy, are unable to think ahead the repercussions of
their acts and have problem to self control themselves.
It is like interacting with a shark.

> Discrimination happens when people are judged along irrelevant
> dimensions, for example by membership in some group that actually
> doesn't relate to the matter. When J.S. Mill defended the rights of
> women he pointed out that even if his opponents were right and women on
> average were mentally unfit for higher studies, that still did not work
> as a motivation for banning them from universities. Some women would no
> doubt be smart enough. Hence the group membership did not matter, only
> the actual individual level of smarts.

Unfortunately, the current way of thinking is all mired in quotas.
After the current elections in Italy the PD (Democratic Party) are
boasting how they have 40% of women elected (greater share of all other
parties) and the M5S (Five Star Movement of Grillo) have the elected
with the lower median age (32-33 years).

The same is true for Medical Degrees in the US and Italy. More women but
there is no indication the quality of the workforce is increasing.

> Whether somebody can handle a gun responsibly seems to be what really
> matters: if the new rules just say that people in the group "mentally
> disordered" cannot have guns, then they are discriminatory and wrong.
> But if they say that people that do have responsibility problems can't
> have guns, then they make sense.

The problem is the "responsibility" problems are usually detected too
late, after the fact. This is exacerbated by a social problem.
Individuals are shielded from personal responsibility a lot longer than
in the past, so many mature without the ability to take responsibility
of what they do or don't and many irresponsible people are detected too
late.

I see a lot of people breaking down as they must move from school (High
School or University) to the workforce. They simply have never developed
the ability to manage themselves without external help. Even very
intelligent people. They simply are unable to manage the stress of a
job. Some settle for a low stress job (like flipping burger or likes)
and others simply develop a lot of symptoms that, in the end, are their
way to avoid to take a job whatsoever with all his rules, rhythms,
expectations, etc.

Mirco


From painlord2k at libero.it  Tue Mar  5 13:22:52 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Tue, 05 Mar 2013 14:22:52 +0100
Subject: [ExI] insanity plea
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbLuB9kqq7vbyCKSiDmRnDQzXXoN3v3w9Z_01sqMmnDhpQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <011201ce0d7c$f753c090$e5fb41b0$@att.net> <51220700.802@aleph.se>
 <CAPoR7a71d2cTaQoW=WzdY=y7C-Q0JLh9Pvfb-93Bh3+kr_KxGQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <010f01ce12a4$92ec0180$b8c40480$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNRykYs1jicwD=tos2OfDokJtevtk6WERJOGZg4DXeW16Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <005001ce12ca$ba735f20$2f5a1d60$@rainier66.com> <512ACA12.1090703@aleph.se>
 <000f01ce1308$43bb0840$cb3118c0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAOJFdbLuB9kqq7vbyCKSiDmRnDQzXXoN3v3w9Z_01sqMmnDhpQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5135F1AC.3050602@libero.it>

Il 25/02/2013 15:42, Mike Dougherty ha scritto:

> I thought we were getting rid of cash due to the pesky untrackability
> of cash.  Wasn't the goal to make your bank account public information
> also?  That way we can be sure you aren't selling or buying drugs,
> cheating on your spouse, or evading your tax responsibility.

No, the goal is to make your bank account available to the government.
If all bank accounts would be public record people could check the bank
account of politicians and their families, lovers, friend, collaborators
and of judges, prosecutors, businessmen and women.
And this can no be allowed.

The Big Brother watch you but You must not watch the Big Brother back.

Anyway, here come bitcoin, trashing all human legislation about money
under its mathematical feet. No charge-back, no fiat creation of money,
no easy link of every transaction to someone. No way to control
transaction with single choke point.

Apparently the wave is in motion and there is no way to stop it.

Mirco


From anders at aleph.se  Tue Mar  5 15:09:15 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 05 Mar 2013 15:09:15 +0000
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhxHravwWizpxbNCiC_ueYGTX0H-2En+6JzjvJQ5Mk2Fg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
 <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhpfyjhbJXNH6N0Xv158CUJy8Vd-iEnFueJW57sN_w38w@mail.gmail.com>
 <001801ce186c$51f701c0$f5e50540$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhmtvF23kWGcxr35KsHKsTPeSR5UT_FSXtxCDv_Z=oDnA@mail.gmail.com>
 <51348C51.5020302@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armh-L564AYGLHTSpvHfz27v_jjz-B9TBGLSurVKv63G3Dg@mail.gmail.com>
 <5134B8CD.6060704@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armhxHravwWizpxbNCiC_ueYGTX0H-2En+6JzjvJQ5Mk2Fg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <51360A9A.7020804@aleph.se>

On 05/03/2013 10:32, BillK wrote:
> That's my main point - today's food adulteration is big business on an
> industrial scale.
And I would argue that food today is both healthier and more likely to 
actually contain what it claims than in the past.

Yes, there are industrial scale interventions that make food less great 
than it could be, usually to cut price. But still.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University



From sparge at gmail.com  Tue Mar  5 15:26:51 2013
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Tue, 5 Mar 2013 10:26:51 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Re Atten: For any extropy libertarians
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wV+-2Nt_9ExLcT6OWePi9Zak7LrZi7BJaj+jFpSQnaDtQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAEUzo3+O_-PLh06M5_nv1M0hf5uLvdwK3w0No+LEyB=rnBR_8A@mail.gmail.com>
 <006b01cd749f$f71011e0$e53035a0$@natasha.cc>
 <012201cd74b8$8e7e0380$ab7a0a80$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdb+eAwkOOUhRujLVtLBLUsAHySpzNk=2ttRZ5E1YmMdgOA@mail.gmail.com>
 <00e601cd7525$0606c880$12145980$@att.net>
 <CAJX-7wV+-2Nt_9ExLcT6OWePi9Zak7LrZi7BJaj+jFpSQnaDtQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2fcXxCcDaWOEuVKph_pauJabDYf9jRVQwy6tKpoiTBdbw@mail.gmail.com>

Blast from the recent past...

On Wed, Aug 8, 2012 at 2:34 AM, Max More <max at maxmore.com> wrote:

> All this must be customized according to your specific biochemistry. We
> still know extremely little, but it seems that the 20% of the population
> with the allele for ApoE4 should keep their fat intake relatively low. You
> can find out whether you have that allele for $99 through 23andMe. If you
> do, you're also at higher risk of Alzheimers. If you have two copies, you
> 10 to 30 times the risk of developing Alzheimers.
>

Just got my 23andme results and I've got a single APOE4. I eat a Primal
diet. I've googled around quite a bit, but I can't really find any good
recommendations for APOE4 diets. I'm sure that with a moderate to high carb
diet, low fat would be better than high fat, but what about with a low carb
diet? What do you base your low fat recommendation on?

-Dave
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From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Mar  5 15:49:06 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 5 Mar 2013 16:49:06 +0100
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <51360A9A.7020804@aleph.se>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
 <010801ce1852$3f1ad0f0$bd5072d0$@rainier66.com>
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 <51360A9A.7020804@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20130305154906.GC6172@leitl.org>

On Tue, Mar 05, 2013 at 03:09:15PM +0000, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> On 05/03/2013 10:32, BillK wrote:
>> That's my main point - today's food adulteration is big business on an
>> industrial scale.
> And I would argue that food today is both healthier and more likely to  
> actually contain what it claims than in the past.

At least in the US both the diet and the lifestyle have started
to take their toll in actuarial tables.

In general US is somewhat of an anomaly among developed nations

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/10/health/americans-under-50-fare-poorly-on-health-measures-new-report-says.html?_r=0


From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Tue Mar  5 21:25:35 2013
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Tue, 05 Mar 2013 16:25:35 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Starfield visualizations
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjNk7Rh7Ou53373LobJF8=bBw8o9Aq-R7EZKzUJkcGeZw@mail.g
 mail.com>
References: <201303040145.r241jXvf012932@reva.xtremeunix.com>
 <CAL_armjNk7Rh7Ou53373LobJF8=bBw8o9Aq-R7EZKzUJkcGeZw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <201303052125.r25LPmFQ024931@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

Thanks. Something Vinge said at Boskone clicked cylinders in my brain
into place and started up my pressroom machinery. I realized that the
teenager in a mainstream piece I wrote grows up to be the mom in
another old story, set on an asteroid. And that they're the start of a future
history I've been fleshing out since.

Starfield visualization is, I'm sure, merely the first "Does anyone know?"
question as I write the series.


-- David.




From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Mar  6 03:51:45 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Tue, 5 Mar 2013 19:51:45 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <005901ce18e5$594ba470$0be2ed50$@rainier66.com>
References: <008601ce17b8$eb816470$c2842d50$@rainier66.com>
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-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike

>...but I now suspect honey extraction could be harming the bees.  I will have more data today, for I am going back over to Sunnyvale to visit some of my index trees.  I think the problem might be more localized, and I have a suspect, which I will share this evening...spike


_______________________________________________


OK well, here we go.  I have been going around doing local bee counts, and my preliminary conclusion is that bee counts are definitely way down this year, but it might be localized.  Sunnyvale and Palo Alto both seem low on bees, but I don't have much data on those locations.  Here about 10 miles east of Sunnyvale, I would estimate bee counts down half an order of magnitude at least, possibly most of an order of magnitude, but I will have more data when the ornamental pears blossom and my own ornamentals in the backyard in a couple weeks.

The evidence on the imidacloprid theory is ambiguous because it is crazy hard to isolate variables.  We have a very subtle theoretical effect where we cannot fully isolate a control group.  The theory that imidacloprid interferes with bee navigation causing the bees to lose their way, fail to find their hive and subsequently perish of exposure is complicated by the strong possibility that a small exposure to the stuff may be nearly as harmful as a double dose.  It doesn't actually poison the bees, so the amount necessary to cause the bees to lose their way may be too low to detect.  

Furthermore, there is huge money at stake, and politics up the kazoo.  For instance, Bayer makes crazy big money selling imidacloprid.  Beekeepers are making good money this year extracting honey.  Recall a few thousand dollars is a lot of money to a typical beekeeper.  A few tens of thousands, a cool fortune.  But what occurred to me is that bees are used to smuggle dope up from Mexico.  I didn't read of it anywhere, but I figured it out.  Perhaps you have seen a picture of a flatbed truck hauling bees:

http://www.uproxx.com/gammasquad/2010/05/worst-death-ever-car-crash-with-a-flatbed-trailer-hauling-17000000-bees/

Note the bee truck where you have the supers (a wooden box full of bees and honeycomb) stacked five across, six high and about 20 deep, depending on the truck.  The best way to make a lot of money, honey, is to take bees around the northern US and Canada, let them devour the pollen on everything as it blooms, then winter the bees down where the weather is mild so they don't eat up much of the honey they made in the summer.  Florida is a good place, but Mexico is even better.  Now imagine a bee truck with all the center hives removed, and filled with dope, down in Mexico.  The bee truck comes up in the spring, and what do you suppose happens at the border?  Senior Border Guard doesn't want that damn bee truck around, buzzing bastards everywhere, risking stings.  The dope-sniffing dogs can't get anywhere close really.  The net over the top helps hold some of the bees in, but notice anywhere you see a bee truck, there are hundreds of bees buzzing around everywhere.  The American crossing guards realize those bees are critically important for pollinating American crops, so welcome to the states, Senior Beekeeper, even if the driver is clearly an illegal immigrant and the border patrol suspects that bee truck might be carrying dope.  No border patrol will require the beehives to be removed from that truck, because a careful smuggler would carry the dope inside the hives, and they don't want the beekeepers to open every hive.  So in it comes.  

I have never heard of smugglers bringing dope across the border using a bee truck, but it would work perfectly.  If you ever hear of such an operation being busted (perhaps in some kind of sting operation) you know where you heard it first.  Recall that beekeepers work their asses off for a handful of dollars.  We could scarcely blame them if they crumbled under the temptation to make a lifetime of profit for smuggling one load of grass over the Mexican border.

But I digress.

There is a community farm near my home.  I suspect some pesticide they are using on that farm is slaying the local bees.  Tomorrow I will go looking for more data, and will report why I suspect it so, or present my counterevidence if I can find any.

spike




From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu  Wed Mar  6 01:19:31 2013
From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera)
Date: Tue, 5 Mar 2013 20:19:31 -0500
Subject: [ExI] insanity plea
Message-ID: <CAMdUVLyBG10TjXqk2nAPpUHyqLcbZikcfnm3Sz1so1fA+QeMFA@mail.gmail.com>

?? wrote:
> There are ways to guarantee the patient is medicated, for example with
> monthly injections.

Then Mirco responded:
The problem is many of these patients have a long history of
discontinuing their medications. What to do with an individual declared
"not guilty" but dangerous when he discontinue his medications?
Do you arrest him and jail him as soon as he try to avoid to be
medicated or refuse to take his pills? And how much do you keep him in
jail for skipping his drugs?

---

Injectable antipsychotics have helped with such issues immensely (vs.
having to take medication daily to reap its benefits). In the case where a
patient decides he no longer wants to take his antipsychotic medication,
when there is a history of violence when the patient has not been on an
antipsychotic, you wouldn't arrest the patient to put him in jail, you
would petition the court to hospitalize him for the purpose of
administering the antipsychotic medication (like an injection that will
work for 30 days). The reliable assumption is that the patient's condition
will improve once he is back on the medication such that he can be released
from the hospital and return home. This is called a Rogers Order where I
live. See:
http://www.massguardianshipassociation.org/information/guardianship-of-an-adult-2/rogers-guardianship/

I am aware that there are people who oppose such "forced drugging."
Nevertheless, I have seen this system used effectively to prevent harm to
patients and to the public many times. Every time I have followed up with
recipients of such "forced drugging," they say they are grateful to be back
on their medication and grateful that no one was hurt while they were not
thinking clearly.

This makes me think of the potential benefit of making a movie to yourself,
sort of like in Total Recall. You have the patient make it when stable for
the purpose of viewing when unstable. In it, they could tell themselves, "I
know you are thinking of stopping your medication, but trust me, that won't
lead to anything good happening. Trust your doctor, she won't hurt you.
Etc."

-Henry

****Support ZeroState.net****Support Transhumanity.net****
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From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Mar  6 04:11:49 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Tue, 5 Mar 2013 20:11:49 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <20130305214221.78044wd0ao9rh9ul@webmail2.webhero.com>
References: <20130305214221.78044wd0ao9rh9ul@webmail2.webhero.com>
Message-ID: <00fd01ce1a20$b9d961b0$2d8c2510$@rainier66.com>



One of our lurkers, Robert Kennedy, has a server which for some reason
persistently fights with the Exi-chat server.  We have never been able to
get those two ISPs to play nice together, which is why Robert never posts.
I forwarded his post below and added my comment at the top.




Spike's comment: Robert and Fred S., regarding the pesticide kill on 1
January 2013, I collected about 50 to 60 of what looked dead bees.  The
minimum temperature that day was about high 30s F.  I took them home to
attempt to dissect them, in search of tracheal mites.  As I was setting up
the microscope, I noticed a bee was flying around inside my house, then two.
I looked at the open Tupperware container with the bees, and noticed several
of them moving.  Eventually about 8 of them revived enough to fly about,
apparently unharmed.  I left the container open to see how many would
revive.  This observation counter-indicates a pesticide kill, and suggests
they were slain by exposure.  Otherwise the toxin would have kept the bees
dead: they wouldn't revive as they warmed in my house.

Also note that these bees were in a suburb, far from any hive or bee tree.
This suggests that the bees were lost and died of exposure, rather than
poisoned.

Read on please.

In the meantime, I consider the imidicloprid theory unproven but still
alive.  Don't make me follow you around at the grocery store: if I catch any
of you buying honey, I will brutally put your butt on moderation, until ye
repent!  

spike

-----Original Message-----
From: Robert G Kennedy III, PE [mailto:robot at ultimax.com] 
Sent: Tuesday, March 05, 2013 7:42 PM
To: spike66 at att.net
Subject: re: bees again

I won't bother replying to the list since it'll jsut get bounced.

A friend of mine here in _____, who is in my amateur astronomy club, a
research chemist, and also a serious beekeeper himself, looked over your
post. He responds:

***

Hello Robert,

"Spike's" honey bee observations are a mixed bag and most likely not  
quite as dire as he might believe.

The large number of dead bees in a rather small area suggests to me an  
insecticide kill. Just last summer, in Blount County, a beekeeper lost  
nearly 200 colonies of honey bees in just such an event. The ground  
near a colony, or a bee tree, will be absolutely covered with the  
carcasses of hundreds or even thousands of dead bees when such an  
event transpires.

The lack of honey bees in his area at this time of year can be easily  
explained. From early February through mid -to-late March, every  
strong bee hive in the state of California can be found in the  
Sacramento Valley - pollinating the almond crop. To successfully  
pollinate this crop (which represents 80% of the world's almond  
production) currently requires approximately 50-55% of honey bee  
colonies kept in the U.S.  A total of something like 1.4 million  
colonies are trucked into this region each January so as to pollinate  
this crop. The migratory beekeepers get their largest pollination  
contract of the year to ensure the success of this nut crop. They also  
realize their greatest payday per hive - something like $140 to $175  
per colony. There are several individual migratory operations that  
move upwards of 50,000 hives to pollinate this crop. Flatbed tractor  
trailers are packed with 400 colonies per load - and they move 1.4  
million hives to this crop in this manner.  I wonder what their fuel  
bill tallies?

Regards,

- Fred S.

-- 
Robert G Kennedy III, PE
www.ultimax.com






From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Mar  6 05:11:27 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Tue, 5 Mar 2013 21:11:27 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <00fd01ce1a20$b9d961b0$2d8c2510$@rainier66.com>
References: <20130305214221.78044wd0ao9rh9ul@webmail2.webhero.com>
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>... On Behalf Of spike

>...As I was setting up the microscope, I noticed a bee was flying around
inside my house, then two.
I looked at the open Tupperware container with the bees, and noticed several
of them moving.  Eventually about 8 of them revived enough to fly about,
apparently unharmed...spike


I previously left unstated my bride's attitude toward this whole experiment
of bees reviving and taking flight inside the abode: she was not amused.  

That lass just doesn't love bees the way her old man does.

spike



From anders at aleph.se  Wed Mar  6 09:45:52 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 06 Mar 2013 09:45:52 +0000
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <011701ce1a29$0e80dab0$2b829010$@rainier66.com>
References: <20130305214221.78044wd0ao9rh9ul@webmail2.webhero.com>
 <00fd01ce1a20$b9d961b0$2d8c2510$@rainier66.com>
 <011701ce1a29$0e80dab0$2b829010$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <51371050.6070703@aleph.se>

Looking at the historical data, say
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Historical_Data/index.asp
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_York/Historical_Data/Livestock/Livestock.htm
I am struck by 1) it is certainly declining, 2) the overall number of 
hives is not going down tremendously in California, but the decline in 
New York is far bigger. Not sure what this actually proves, but I think 
it shows there is an elasticity set by non-agricultural production that 
makes beekeepers to go into other businesses.

Generally, changes in habitat likely play a big role - I am struggling 
to find a report by Simon G. Potts about the UK situation I recently 
read, which argued that we have seen declines due to the vanishing of 
diverse meadowland, which is important for forage. There are many other 
possible reasons, but land use matters tremendously. In the US long term 
trends might be more complex:
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/02/27/1218503110.abstract
Potts has a nice review paper: 
http://nature.berkeley.edu/kremenlab/Articles/Global%20pollinator%20declines.pdf

One insight: it might be stupid to depend too much on Apis mellifera. We 
should have a more robust pollination service. Wish I had a beetle for it.

On 06/03/2013 05:11, spike wrote:
> I previously left unstated my bride's attitude toward this whole 
> experiment of bees reviving and taking flight inside the abode: she 
> was not amused. That lass just doesn't love bees the way her old man does.

I think this is a common problem. There is a book about the beetle 
collection of the Nobel laureate Thomas Transtr?mer, written by a fellow 
entemologist and author. It begins with a scene where they are sitting 
and boasting about the species they had in their boyhood collections, 
while "...in the kitchen, as wives of beetle collectors tend to do, our 
spouses were laughing at us."

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Mar  6 14:35:53 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Wed, 6 Mar 2013 06:35:53 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <51371050.6070703@aleph.se>
References: <20130305214221.78044wd0ao9rh9ul@webmail2.webhero.com>
 <00fd01ce1a20$b9d961b0$2d8c2510$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <014e01ce1a77$e892d390$b9b87ab0$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
...

>...One insight: it might be stupid to depend too much on Apis mellifera. We
should have a more robust pollination service. Wish I had a beetle for it...

Exactly.  Step 1 is to stop making honey sales part of or most of the
beekeepers profit.  And of course dope smuggling from Mexico, but that's
different.  Sorta.


On 06/03/2013 05:11, spike wrote:
>>... I previously left unstated my bride's attitude toward this whole 
> experiment of bees reviving and taking flight inside the abode: she 
> was not amused. That lass just doesn't love bees the way her old man does.

>...I think this is a common problem. There is a book about the beetle
collection of the Nobel laureate Thomas Transtr?mer, written by a fellow
entemologist and author. It begins with a scene where they are sitting and
boasting about the species they had in their boyhood collections, while
"...in the kitchen, as wives of beetle collectors tend to do, our spouses
were laughing at us."

--
>...Anders Sandberg


Well ja, there is that.  But I lack a shred of human dignity: it matters not
to me whether she is laughing at me or laughing with me, so long as she is
laughing.  She wasn't laughing at the bees in the house.  I didn't see why
it was a big deal, all we had to do is leave the doors open.  Of course that
allowed some of what might have been my most important data to fly away.
But my bride calmed down after that data was gone.

spike




From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Wed Mar  6 17:27:45 2013
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Wed, 6 Mar 2013 18:27:45 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Progress
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wX6C5pdY=nXfvtAZzOnwBh-Hz0A0UwX-Y5o0Q0fzd1hEQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <51300699.8060005@aleph.se>
 <013401ce1621$12021020$36063060$@rainier66.com>
 <51306C93.508@aleph.se>
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Message-ID: <CAPoR7a5xoEY+4JROjBPTCan9Dx0EdMSZPN2irCKPLLeEHweYmg@mail.gmail.com>

On 5 March 2013 02:41, Max More <max at maxmore.com> wrote:

> In general, I would happily put my biomarkers up against those of anyone
> else in their late 40s, but I was surprised and disturbed to find, in June
> of 2012, that my vitamin D, 25-hydroxy levels were low: 16.6 ng/dL.
> (Standard ranges suggest a healthy minimum of 30.) I'm not much of a
> believer in supplements these days, but started supplementing with D, and
> by December 2012 tripled my D levels. I'm also aiming to expose myself to
> modest periods of sun, without sunblockers, when the UV index is at least 3
> (the minimum for stimulating D production) but no more than 5. (That's a
> short window here in Arizona during the spring and summer!).
>

Funny, I recently started doing just the same. Prob is that vitamin D is
not ideal for "spaghetti supplementation" (throw them against wall and see
what remains stuck), because with there is "too much of a good thing", so I
would also recommend some checking and adjusting, depending on your current
level and reaction.

As to sunlight, I go on with the rule of thumb of having "very little, but
some".

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Wed Mar  6 16:02:30 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Wed, 6 Mar 2013 11:02:30 -0500
Subject: [ExI] insanity plea
In-Reply-To: <CAH=2ypWqFETr53rSp7Luss4XrZum3oFEYCemKg09OJb_y8ueCw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <011201ce0d7c$f753c090$e5fb41b0$@att.net> <51220700.802@aleph.se>
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On Thu, Feb 28, 2013  Stathis Papaioannou <stathisp at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> > My mental malfunction has been repaired and I am quite literally not the
>> same man I was, so if the doctors can say beyond a reasonable doubt that I
>> am no more likely to murder again than the general population then I should
>> be released. However in the real world the thought experiment you describe
>> almost never happens,  and I'm not sure if I should have said "almost".
>>
>
> > The case I have described is of a treatable organic psychosis.


Then why do people still get murdered?


> > Much more commonly involved in forensic cases are the so-called
> functional psychoses such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. These can
> also be treated very effectively with medication in at least 70% of cases,
>

Maybe treatment can help a little bit for 70% of those with garden variety
depression or bipolar disorder. Maybe. But that's not what I'm talking
about, I'm talking about turning a murder into a non-murderer. And I think
that someone murdering again AFTER he has already been convicted of murder
is as great a failure of the law as executing a innocent man; so even if
your very dubious statistic of a 70% success rate is correct that's not
nearly good enough, you certainly wouldn't put somebody to death if you
thought there was only a 70% chance they were guilty. I would be in favor
of releasing a murder if it could be proven beyond a reasonable doubt that
the treatment was so good he would be incapable of murdering again. Do you
have any treatment like that?


> > but the problem is that the symptoms recur if the medication stops.
>

Not if the medication is cyanide, with that drug only one treatment is
needed and you can be quite certain that the murdering symptoms will not
reoccur.

  John K Clark
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From msd001 at gmail.com  Wed Mar  6 20:18:25 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Wed, 6 Mar 2013 15:18:25 -0500
Subject: [ExI] insanity plea
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2BmhrtU8SkBS-cAV1Z5qisY2Mnso3Sx9E46Myg7VrcUA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <011201ce0d7c$f753c090$e5fb41b0$@att.net> <51220700.802@aleph.se>
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On Wed, Mar 6, 2013 at 11:02 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Thu, Feb 28, 2013  Stathis Papaioannou <stathisp at gmail.com> wrote:
>> > but the problem is that the symptoms recur if the medication stops.
> Not if the medication is cyanide, with that drug only one treatment is
> needed and you can be quite certain that the murdering symptoms will not
> reoccur.

ironic


From stathisp at gmail.com  Thu Mar  7 13:09:56 2013
From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 00:09:56 +1100
Subject: [ExI] insanity plea
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2BmhrtU8SkBS-cAV1Z5qisY2Mnso3Sx9E46Myg7VrcUA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <011201ce0d7c$f753c090$e5fb41b0$@att.net> <51220700.802@aleph.se>
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On Thu, Mar 7, 2013 at 3:02 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Thu, Feb 28, 2013  Stathis Papaioannou <stathisp at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>
>>> > My mental malfunction has been repaired and I am quite literally not
>>> > the same man I was, so if the doctors can say beyond a reasonable doubt that
>>> > I am no more likely to murder again than the general population then I
>>> > should be released. However in the real world the thought experiment you
>>> > describe almost never happens,  and I'm not sure if I should have said
>>> > "almost".
>>
>>
>> > The case I have described is of a treatable organic psychosis.
>
>
> Then why do people still get murdered?

Because not everyone gets treated, the psychosis is not always
treatable, and most murderers are sane people anyway.

>> > Much more commonly involved in forensic cases are the so-called
>> > functional psychoses such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. These can
>> > also be treated very effectively with medication in at least 70% of cases,
>
>
> Maybe treatment can help a little bit for 70% of those with garden variety
> depression or bipolar disorder. Maybe. But that's not what I'm talking
> about, I'm talking about turning a murder into a non-murderer. And I think
> that someone murdering again AFTER he has already been convicted of murder
> is as great a failure of the law as executing a innocent man; so even if
> your very dubious statistic of a 70% success rate is correct that's not
> nearly good enough, you certainly wouldn't put somebody to death if you
> thought there was only a 70% chance they were guilty. I would be in favor of
> releasing a murder if it could be proven beyond a reasonable doubt that the
> treatment was so good he would be incapable of murdering again. Do you have
> any treatment like that?

Most murderers are either not mentally ill or have a personality
disorder, which generally can't be treated. Psychotic disorders, on
the other hand, can be treated. Psychotic disorders include
schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, schizoaffective disorder and
delusional disorder. There are also organic psychoses caused by
metabolic problems, brain tumours etc., although these are rarer. A
psychotic illness can completely change the gentlest of people and
turn them into a murderer, although of course if they are already
inclined towards violence before becoming psychotic they are even more
dangerous. In the ideal case, a person is well-adjusted and
law-abiding, becomes psychotic and commits a crime, is treated and
returns to normal, has insight into what happened and the reasons for
it, and remains well thereafter with no more likelihood of offending
than anyone else.

>> > but the problem is that the symptoms recur if the medication stops.
>
>
> Not if the medication is cyanide, with that drug only one treatment is
> needed and you can be quite certain that the murdering symptoms will not
> reoccur.

Injectable antipsychotic medication mandated by legislation can also work.


-- 
Stathis Papaioannou


From pjmanney at gmail.com  Thu Mar  7 20:23:06 2013
From: pjmanney at gmail.com (PJ Manney)
Date: Thu, 7 Mar 2013 12:23:06 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <014e01ce1a77$e892d390$b9b87ab0$@rainier66.com>
References: <20130305214221.78044wd0ao9rh9ul@webmail2.webhero.com>
 <00fd01ce1a20$b9d961b0$2d8c2510$@rainier66.com>
 <011701ce1a29$0e80dab0$2b829010$@rainier66.com>
 <51371050.6070703@aleph.se>
 <014e01ce1a77$e892d390$b9b87ab0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAJrtBE37603SOcbS62fPnAiutaRiVfbytvC3aOhSDf5+r8k+Ug@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Mar 6, 2013 at 6:35 AM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
> Well ja, there is that.  But I lack a shred of human dignity: it matters not
> to me whether she is laughing at me or laughing with me, so long as she is
> laughing.  She wasn't laughing at the bees in the house.  I didn't see why
> it was a big deal, all we had to do is leave the doors open.  Of course that
> allowed some of what might have been my most important data to fly away.
> But my bride calmed down after that data was gone.

New petition to ban use of neonicotinoids:

http://www.causes.com/actions/1686797-ban-the-use-of-neonicotinoid-pesticides-before-they-devastate-bee-populations-in-the-usa?utm

PJ


From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Mar  7 23:01:27 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Thu, 7 Mar 2013 15:01:27 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <CAJrtBE37603SOcbS62fPnAiutaRiVfbytvC3aOhSDf5+r8k+Ug@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20130305214221.78044wd0ao9rh9ul@webmail2.webhero.com>
 <00fd01ce1a20$b9d961b0$2d8c2510$@rainier66.com>
 <011701ce1a29$0e80dab0$2b829010$@rainier66.com> <51371050.6070703@aleph.se>
 <014e01ce1a77$e892d390$b9b87ab0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAJrtBE37603SOcbS62fPnAiutaRiVfbytvC3aOhSDf5+r8k+Ug@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00a201ce1b87$b37a1360$1a6e3a20$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of PJ Manney
Subject: Re: [ExI] bees again

On Wed, Mar 6, 2013 at 6:35 AM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
> >...  I didn't see why it was a big deal, all we had to do is leave 
> the doors open.  Of course that allowed some of what might have been my
most important data to fly away.
> But my bride calmed down after that data was gone.

>...New petition to ban use of neonicotinoids:

>...http://www.causes.com/actions/1686797-ban-the-use-of-neonicotinoid-pesti
cides-before-they-devastate-bee-populations-in-the-usa?utm

>...PJ
_______________________________________________



Thanks PJ.  What we need to be really careful about is first-suspect effect.
Heinous crime, unsolved, they catch some sleazy bastard, trial is
inconclusive so they hang him just to be sure, town breathes a sigh of
relief, then a second guy is caught who actually fits the description of the
perp better than the first guy.  But the second guy gets an actual trial,
because the first guy suffered first-suspect effect, and the town is now
feeling just a little queazy about hanging the first suspect.  Imidacloprid
is the first suspect.  

First suspect effect doesn't mean the first suspect is innocent, just that
we need to work our asses off to make sure that is the bad guy before the
hanging.  The theory certainly seems plausible to me.  Corn doesn't need
bees, so they spray whatever works.  It seems believable that some of the
pesticide could find its way into the corn products, such as the syrup, in
very small concentrations, too small to readily detect.  Price of honey goes
up, beekeepers extract and sell, feed the bees corn syrup, neonics
accumulate, bees lose their way, perish of exposure.

What I am seeing I think is conflicting evidence.  It is crazy difficult to
separate the variables cleanly.  In my area we have a neighborhood garden,
which is a few acres divided into small plots for hobby farmers.  It is
no-motors, being in a residential area, and the locals don't want to deal
with the noise and dust of rototillers.  Consequently a typical patch out
there is only perhaps 10 meters by 10 meters.  If one wishes to get more
than one bowl of salad out of such a small garden, one must dump crazy
amounts of fertilizer and pesticide on the few plants one has. 

If you have 100 acres of corn, you must calculate carefully the minimum
pesticide needed and the cost-optimal fertilizer.  If on the other hand you
have 100 corn stalks, you don't need to worry about it, just use crazy much
pesticide and crazy much fertilizer, and stand back.  So it could actually
be almost anything killing the local bees.  I did a count the last several
days, and the bee population is definitely way down.  Sunnyvale and Palo
Alto, it seems to be down, but it isn't as clear.  It might be that local
community garden that is harming the local bees.

Regarding the argument that the hives are taken out to the central valley to
pollinate the almonds, the Sunnyvale community garden and the Milpitas
community garden both have their own hives which never leave and as far as I
know, they don't extract honey (although I don't know for sure) in addition
to immigrant beehives.  In all cases, the hives appear to be underactive,
with one puzzling exception in Sunnyvale.  Of the ~20 hives, there was one
completely abandoned, no activity at all, one crazy busy, and the others
under-active.

More later, when I have more data.  Everyone here has a chance to play
amateur scientist in the next couple months as the blossoms of spring come
forth in all their refulgent beauty.  Everyone here has a chance to
passively be an amateur political activist by just not buying honey for only
a year or two, or until that price comes back down, or until we can
exonerate the first suspect.

spike



From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar  8 03:06:33 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Thu, 7 Mar 2013 19:06:33 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <00a201ce1b87$b37a1360$1a6e3a20$@rainier66.com>
References: <20130305214221.78044wd0ao9rh9ul@webmail2.webhero.com>
 <00fd01ce1a20$b9d961b0$2d8c2510$@rainier66.com>
 <011701ce1a29$0e80dab0$2b829010$@rainier66.com> <51371050.6070703@aleph.se>
 <014e01ce1a77$e892d390$b9b87ab0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAJrtBE37603SOcbS62fPnAiutaRiVfbytvC3aOhSDf5+r8k+Ug@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a201ce1b87$b37a1360$1a6e3a20$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <00e001ce1ba9$f08a9500$d19fbf00$@rainier66.com>




>...  The theory certainly seems plausible to me.  ...  Everyone here has a
chance to play amateur scientist in the next couple months as the blossoms
of spring come forth in all their refulgent beauty...spike

_______________________________________________


So here is what happened.  The Great Sunflower Project proposed a standard,
but things didn't work as well as we had hoped.  Eventually a group formed
which was a spinoff: several of us were attempting informal
half-digit-of-precision estimates on local blossom patches or trees, then a
data repository was created by one of our number, who set up a private email
group.  In December, we get a short note from QueenB telling us she would be
gone for some indeterminate length of time due to a personal tragedy.  We
haven't heard from her since.  She has the mailing list.

Explanation of half-digit-precision estimates: if you only needed to
estimate an order of magnitude, that would be zero digits of precision.  If
your estimates were better than that, but still not one-digit-precision,
there is half a digit.  If you can sit under an index tree and tell the
difference between 1 bee, 3 bees, 10, 30, 100, 300, 1000 and so forth, then
that is 10 log to the nearest half.

Question amateur scientists: can you estimate the number of bees to the
nearest half digit?  I think you can.  If you want to play, find some index
trees, go out on a specific date and estimate.  Then if you are so inclined,
send me the count and the location.  A zip code is good enough.  If you have
a tree in which there are several of the same species in the area you can
use for comparison, that is even better.

spike



From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Fri Mar  8 05:12:19 2013
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Fri, 08 Mar 2013 00:12:19 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Musical instruments in space
Message-ID: <201303080512.r285CZCU017767@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

What musical instruments would need to be altered or played
differently in order to sound the same when played on the space
station or a lunar colony? (Because of the lower gravity and the
lower air pressure.)

What changes would be required?

What new, interesting instruments would be possible?


-- David.



From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar  8 05:58:08 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Thu, 7 Mar 2013 21:58:08 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <201303080512.r285CZCU017767@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201303080512.r285CZCU017767@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <00f901ce1bc1$e8fee4e0$bafcaea0$@rainier66.com>

 

>. On Behalf Of David Lubkin
Subject: [ExI] Musical instruments in space

 

>.What musical instruments would need to be altered or played differently in
order to sound the same when played on the space station or a lunar colony?
(Because of the lower gravity and the lower air pressure.)

 

>.What changes would be required?

 

>.What new, interesting instruments would be possible?

 

-- David.

 

_______________________________________________

 

Excellent question.  Ron McNair took a saxophone into orbit in 1984:

 

http://btw2worlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Ronald-McNair-Sax.png

 

He planned to do some space recording on a subsequent flight, but
unfortunately that recording was never made, as the flight only lasted 73
seconds.

 

Aboard the space station, no modifications would be needed: the ISS uses an
atmosphere very close to the same one we have down here.  I know for a fact
that weightlessness wouldn't effect a reed instrument at all, for I have
played a sax while hanging upside down.  I couldn't tell much difference.
It gave me a headache and stuffy sinuses, but the horn played OK.

 

spike

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From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 08:51:16 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 08:51:16 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <00f901ce1bc1$e8fee4e0$bafcaea0$@rainier66.com>
References: <201303080512.r285CZCU017767@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <00f901ce1bc1$e8fee4e0$bafcaea0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjunUEYda_LwQCQzyo0=nD2ugUmwZ1-QBk3Sdo7=UBHig@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 5:58 AM, spike  wrote:
> Aboard the space station, no modifications would be needed: the ISS uses
> an atmosphere very close to the same one we have down here.  I know for a
> fact that weightlessness wouldn?t effect a reed instrument at all, for I
> have played a sax while hanging upside down.  I couldn?t tell much
> difference.  It gave me a headache and stuffy sinuses, but the horn played
> OK.
>


You forgot the obligatory 'Don't ask!'.
Must have been a good party.    :)


BillK



From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Fri Mar  8 14:01:13 2013
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Fri, 08 Mar 2013 09:01:13 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <00f901ce1bc1$e8fee4e0$bafcaea0$@rainier66.com>
References: <201303080512.r285CZCU017767@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <00f901ce1bc1$e8fee4e0$bafcaea0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <201303081401.r28E1R2n015649@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

Spike wrote:

>Excellent question.  Ron McNair took a saxophone into orbit in 1984:

Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield is on ISS with a Larriv?e acoustic guitar.
He has recorded music on ISS and is working on an album. The microgravity
affects his playing: He has to look at his left hand to see what fret he's at.
I think that he'd adapt over time.

>Aboard the space station, no modifications would 
>be needed: the ISS uses an atmosphere very close 
>to the same one we have down here.  I know for a 
>fact that weightlessness wouldn't effect a reed instrument at all

I'm really asking not about exclusively the current ISS and a lunar colony but
the full range of off-Earth conditions we might encounter and want to play
unprocessed acoustic instruments in ? microgravity through ~1.8g,
apparent gravity varying during the course of a playing session, lower or
higher air pressure, different air composition, etc.

Of course, you'd better pack enough reeds to last you on one-way trips to
Mars or Ganymede. At least until you've perfected a variety of Arundo
donax that will yield decent reeds in the space and growing conditions
available.

If you imagine, say, a perpetual farewell concert tour for a rock group and
a symphony orchestra that makes the circuit of settlements from Mercury
to the Kuiper Belt (planetary, lunar, asteroid, constructed habitat, and
major vessels) in a vanilla 1940s sf formulation (that is, we settle
everywhere, we're substantially the same physically, and no MNT), you'd
probably want your instruments to be more adjustable than they are now.

My SWAG is that variations in air pressure would make the most
difference. That it wouldn't be hard to make something thicker or wider
or longer to compensate but I'm not sure how to adapt an instrument
so it's still acoustic, plays the same, sounds the same, in either of two
or more substantially different air pressures without MNT.

Maybe the answer for that is mostly interchangeable parts, e.g., a set
of thicker strings you use in low-pressure environments, and construction
techniques that support a greater range of string tensions.


-- David.




From sparge at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 12:26:40 2013
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 07:26:40 -0500
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <00e001ce1ba9$f08a9500$d19fbf00$@rainier66.com>
References: <20130305214221.78044wd0ao9rh9ul@webmail2.webhero.com>
 <00fd01ce1a20$b9d961b0$2d8c2510$@rainier66.com>
 <011701ce1a29$0e80dab0$2b829010$@rainier66.com>
 <51371050.6070703@aleph.se> <014e01ce1a77$e892d390$b9b87ab0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAJrtBE37603SOcbS62fPnAiutaRiVfbytvC3aOhSDf5+r8k+Ug@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a201ce1b87$b37a1360$1a6e3a20$@rainier66.com>
 <00e001ce1ba9$f08a9500$d19fbf00$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2cTWvjvQCtFm-yngKphBbjxPAZLjXoPmDaGzeaRxF5gWQ@mail.gmail.com>

Spike, check out <http://honeybeenet.gsfc.nasa.gov/>.

-Dave
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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar  8 14:26:58 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 06:26:58 -0800
Subject: [ExI] underwater sprinkler, was:  RE:  Musical instruments in space
Message-ID: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>



>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] Musical instruments in space

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 5:58 AM, spike  wrote:
>> ... I have played a sax while hanging upside down.  I couldn?t 
> tell much difference.  It gave me a headache and stuffy sinuses, but 
> the horn played OK.  spike
>


>...You forgot the obligatory 'Don't ask!'.
Must have been a good party.    :)  BillK

_______________________________________________


I admit with embarrassment that I have no such excuse as a wild party.  We used to do stuff like this all the time back in my college days while completely sober.  My first alcohol was after college was over.  I lived in a house across the street from the engineering building where we had 17 engineers, one mathematician, one physicist and one civilian.  I know, it sounds like I am setting you up for a joke, but that's what it was.  We had fun.

Perhaps you have heard of the Myth Busters?  If not, look it up and be delighted.  We were the proto-myth busters.  

An example of the kinds of stuff we used to do is from a Feynman question.  You have seen those S-shaped lawn sprinklers, turn on the water, they spin.  What would happen if you took one of those, submerged it in water, connected the hose to a pump and pulled water thru it backwards?  Would it turn the opposite direction, since the tips of the arms would act as nozzles in reverse?  Or would it turn the same direction as before, since the water is creating centrifugal force as it goes around the bend?  Or would the forces exactly cancel and not turn?  Or a fourth possibility that blows your mind?

I know the answer from experiment.  Can you figure it out from math and thought experiment?

spike




From sparge at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 14:18:12 2013
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 09:18:12 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <201303081401.r28E1R2n015649@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201303080512.r285CZCU017767@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <00f901ce1bc1$e8fee4e0$bafcaea0$@rainier66.com>
 <201303081401.r28E1R2n015649@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2f2yj0zzGTr08f1raCDD4_MKKvrkFH3psRDJkM-Y+Rj-Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 9:01 AM, David Lubkin <lubkin at unreasonable.com>wrote:

> Of course, you'd better pack enough reeds to last you on one-way trips to
> Mars or Ganymede. At least until you've perfected a variety of Arundo
> donax that will yield decent reeds in the space and growing conditions
> available.
>

Synthetic reeds are already very good (and more durable and consistent than
cane) and only going to get better. Decent ones ought to be printable from
bioplastic before space travel is common.

-Dave
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From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com  Fri Mar  8 14:45:16 2013
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 06:45:16 -0800 (PST)
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
Message-ID: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>

?
I am shocked that there is so little public discourse regarding Rand Paul's fillllibuster of John Brennan because of drone strikes. I thought it was one of most thoughtful political maneuvers of our time. That the POTUS could?order Americans?killed on American soil, anonymously by remote control, without due process, is a chilling thought. It makes possible proscription by presidential fiat. So I applaud Rand for bringing the issue of drone strikes before the?American public or at least trying to. He seems to be a fine speaker too.?

Stuart LaForge
?
"Ignorance is the curse of God; knowledge is the wing wherewith we fly to heaven." - William Shakespeare




From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar  8 15:07:37 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 07:07:37 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <201303081401.r28E1R2n015649@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201303080512.r285CZCU017767@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <00f901ce1bc1$e8fee4e0$bafcaea0$@rainier66.com>
 <201303081401.r28E1R2n015649@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <013901ce1c0e$abfcbbb0$03f63310$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of David Lubkin
Subject: Re: [ExI] Musical instruments in space

Spike wrote:

>>...Excellent question.  Ron McNair took a saxophone into orbit in 1984...

>...Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield is on ISS with a Larriv?e acoustic
guitar...He has recorded music on ISS and is working on an album...

Oy that will be the most expensive album in history.

>... The microgravity affects his playing: He has to look at his left hand
to see what fret he's at.
I think that he'd adapt over time...

We can test that on the ground: hang upside down and see how the hand does.

>>...Aboard the space station, no modifications would be needed...

>...Of course, you'd better pack enough reeds to last you on one-way trips
to Mars or Ganymede...-- David.


_______________________________________________

Nah, we would make them with a 3-D printer.  Does anyone here have a
printer?  Try making an alto sax reed, I will test it.

spike




From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 15:10:41 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 15:10:41 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
In-Reply-To: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
References: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjBRK872X_WgjKn_jzmOq34OT4U_BD9xieOHDNQt-u_9w@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 2:45 PM, The Avantguardian  wrote:
> I am shocked that there is so little public discourse regarding Rand Paul's fillllibuster of John Brennan
> because of drone strikes. I thought it was one of most thoughtful political maneuvers of our time.
> That the POTUS could order Americans killed on American soil, anonymously by remote control,
> without due process, is a chilling thought. It makes possible proscription by presidential fiat.
> So I applaud Rand for bringing the issue of drone strikes before the American public or at least
> trying to. He seems to be a fine speaker too.
>
>

Also chilling is the casual dismissal as 'collateral damage' of the
additional murder of anyone else who happened to be in the same
building or standing nearby. The military doesn't like to talk about
the killing of wives and children as well as the intended targets in
Afghanistan.

BillK


From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com  Fri Mar  8 15:09:50 2013
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 07:09:50 -0800 (PST)
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <014e01ce1a77$e892d390$b9b87ab0$@rainier66.com>
References: <20130305214221.78044wd0ao9rh9ul@webmail2.webhero.com>
 <00fd01ce1a20$b9d961b0$2d8c2510$@rainier66.com>
 <011701ce1a29$0e80dab0$2b829010$@rainier66.com> <51371050.6070703@aleph.se>
 <014e01ce1a77$e892d390$b9b87ab0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <1362755390.35420.YahooMailNeo@web160501.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>

----- Original Message -----
> From: spike <spike at rainier66.com>
> To: 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Cc: 
> Sent: Wednesday, March 6, 2013 6:35 AM
> Subject: Re: [ExI] bees again
?
> 
> Well ja, there is that.? But I lack a shred of human dignity: it matters not
> to me whether she is laughing at me or laughing with me, so long as she is
> laughing.? She wasn't laughing at the bees in the house.? I didn't see 
> why
> it was a big deal, all we had to do is leave the doors open.? Of course that
> allowed some of what might have been my most important data to fly away.
> But my bride calmed down after that data was gone.

?
?
Perhaps you should take them to Starbucks next time. Seems that bees like caffeine too.
?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2290094/Plants-honeybees-boost-caffeine-insects-return-pollinate.html??

Stuart LaForge?

"Ignorance is the curse of God; knowledge is the wing wherewith we fly to heaven." - William Shakespeare



From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar  8 15:09:23 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 07:09:23 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2f2yj0zzGTr08f1raCDD4_MKKvrkFH3psRDJkM-Y+Rj-Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <201303080512.r285CZCU017767@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <00f901ce1bc1$e8fee4e0$bafcaea0$@rainier66.com>
 <201303081401.r28E1R2n015649@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <CAM5aL2f2yj0zzGTr08f1raCDD4_MKKvrkFH3psRDJkM-Y+Rj-Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <013a01ce1c0e$eb27d860$c1778920$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Dave Sill
Subject: Re: [ExI] Musical instruments in space

 

 

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 9:01 AM, David Lubkin <lubkin at unreasonable.com>
wrote:

Of course, you'd better pack enough reeds to last you on one-way trips to
Mars or Ganymede.  David


Synthetic reeds are already very good (and more durable and consistent than
cane) and only going to get better. Decent ones ought to be printable from
bioplastic before space travel is common. -Dave Sill

 

 

I sometimes used plastic reeds as far back as the 1970s.  They work.  They
last like crazy.  spike

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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar  8 15:38:55 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 07:38:55 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
In-Reply-To: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
References: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <014801ce1c13$0b3ebb60$21bc3220$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of The Avantguardian
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster

?
>...I am shocked that there is so little public discourse regarding Rand
Paul's fillllibuster of John Brennan because of drone strikes. I thought it
was one of most thoughtful political maneuvers of our time. That the POTUS
could?order Americans?killed on American soil, anonymously by remote
control, without due process, is a chilling thought. It makes possible
proscription by presidential fiat. So I applaud Rand for bringing the issue
of drone strikes before the?American public or at least trying to. He seems
to be a fine speaker too.?

Stuart LaForge
?
______________________________________________


Avant, there is PLENTY of online discussion about that, just not primarily
here.  Over the years ExI has gained more and more European followers, who
would likely be uninterested in American politics.  Rand Paul definitely
gained a follower in me.  

Regarding the topic of American politics, we are seeing in sequestration
what looks like a referendum or a test case on Keynes vs Hayek economics.
That is most interesting.  I know of no comparable test in history where
those two systems make predictions, then we get a chance to actually see
which one works.  

For the Europeans present: sequestration is a means whereby the US
government is forced to cut spending (well, not really cut spending, but
actually cut slightly the rated of increase of spending) across the board.
The feds assured us it would be the end of western civilization.  The voting
public has generally decided the slight cuts would not end all life as we
know it on the planet.  Rand Paul is in my camp on that: not only is
sequestration not a catastrophe, the cuts aren't nearly big enough.  We get
a chance to see who was right: Hayek or Keynes.  I am betting on Hayek.

spike







From sparge at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 16:00:08 2013
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 11:00:08 -0500
Subject: [ExI] underwater sprinkler,
	was: RE: Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
References: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2fQ_2u82n+SDzSsbjDwJUTvdATZe2FaRJA12AzMjKYuzA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 9:26 AM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

> Can you figure it out from math and thought experiment?


I'd go with spinning in the reverse direction because the suction would
drop the pressure at the outlets (now inlets). Probably pretty slowly,
though.

-Dave
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 16:16:00 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 11:16:00 -0500
Subject: [ExI] underwater sprinkler,
	was: RE: Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
References: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0tmyEuRZHTtzYXHS=vC77ithwyX9C85_t-s5USq65i0Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 9:26 AM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:


>  > You have seen those S-shaped lawn sprinklers, turn on the water, they
> spin.  What would happen if you took one of those, submerged it in water,
> connected the hose to a pump and pulled water thru it backwards?  Would it
> turn the opposite direction, since the tips of the arms would act as
> nozzles in reverse?  Or would it turn the same direction as before, since
> the water is creating centrifugal force as it goes around the bend?  Or
> would the forces exactly cancel and not turn?  Or a fourth possibility that
> blows your mind?
> I know the answer from experiment.  Can you figure it out from math and
> thought experiment?
>

It won't turn at all. When water is going out it is jetting outward in one
specific direction and thus because of the conservation on momentum there
is a force in the opposite direction which makes the sprinkler spin;
however when there is a suction and water is going in and not out the water
can come from any direction and thus there is no net momentum in any
particular direction and so there is nothing to make the sprinkler spin.

  John K Clark




>
> spike
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar  8 17:02:22 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 09:02:22 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
In-Reply-To: <014801ce1c13$0b3ebb60$21bc3220$@rainier66.com>
References: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <014801ce1c13$0b3ebb60$21bc3220$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <015e01ce1c1e$b3cbaf30$1b630d90$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of spike


>...For the Europeans present: sequestration is a means whereby the US
government is forced to cut spending (well, not really cut spending, but
actually cut slightly the rated of increase of spending) across the board...
We get a chance to see who was right: Hayek or Keynes.  I am betting on
Hayek.  spike
_______________________________________________


It may appear I have changed the topic, but this astonishing 60 Minutes
segment is very relevant:

http://www.businessinsider.com/60-minutes-chinas-ghost-cities-2013-3

Do take a few minutes and view it.

spike



From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 17:24:09 2013
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 18:24:09 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Re Atten: For any extropy libertarians
In-Reply-To: <00e601cd7525$0606c880$12145980$@att.net>
References: <CAEUzo3+O_-PLh06M5_nv1M0hf5uLvdwK3w0No+LEyB=rnBR_8A@mail.gmail.com>
 <006b01cd749f$f71011e0$e53035a0$@natasha.cc>
 <012201cd74b8$8e7e0380$ab7a0a80$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdb+eAwkOOUhRujLVtLBLUsAHySpzNk=2ttRZ5E1YmMdgOA@mail.gmail.com>
 <00e601cd7525$0606c880$12145980$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a76szTdSDRnD5rqfsZDkFb3trWLUAvhtQbKbNBCbVs4ZA@mail.gmail.com>

On 8 August 2012 07:16, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> On the contrary, McDonald's food isn't necessarily unhealthy, if devoured
> in
> reasonable quantities, this being surprisingly small.
>

If you take care of ordering only hamburgers and of thoroughly cleaning
them from the buns and anything else which be not meat, it is probably the
healthiest thing you can have at the lowest price per calory in any
restaurant.

Of course, it begs the question of why you should eat in a restaurant at
all if you cannot afford anything better.

What's wrong with a food shop?

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar  8 18:48:06 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 10:48:06 -0800
Subject: [ExI] food again, was:  RE:  Re Atten: For any extropy libertarians
Message-ID: <002101ce1c2d$7963e920$6c2bbb60$@rainier66.com>

 

 

>. Behalf Of Stefano Vaj
Subject: Re: [ExI] Re Atten: For any extropy libertarians

 

On 8 August 2012 07:16, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>>.On the contrary, McDonald's food isn't necessarily unhealthy, if devoured
in
reasonable quantities, this being surprisingly small.  


>.If you take care of ordering only hamburgers and of thoroughly cleaning
them from the buns and anything else which be not meat, it is probably the
healthiest thing you can have at the lowest price per calory in any
restaurant. 

>.Of course, it begs the question of why you should eat in a restaurant at
all if you cannot afford anything better. 

>.What's wrong with a food shop? --  Stefano Vaj 

 

 

Stefano, in general the conditions you mention assume a home.  There are
some items in a grocery which are ready to devour with no cooking utensils,
but these may not be competitive in a calories per dollar contest against
McDs.  These days I see more and more people doing some urban camping, or
are living in cars.  Generally anyone can collect sufficient donations to
survive on fast food if they hang around the population centers, especially
in rich areas like the Silicon Valley.

 

My message is that one really can live on that stuff if one doesn't overeat,
which can be hard to do, even I recognize it.  McDonald's has evolved some
excellent comfort food, such as those soft warm fish sandwiches, mmmmmm, and
those long greasy salty fries, mmmmm so good, number 11 on the value meal
menu, 6 dollars and 32 cents gets you these and a tall icy soda with free
refills, such a deal is this.  

 

Don't hate them: McDonald's is not evil, just highly successful.  

 

spike

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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 19:08:50 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 14:08:50 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
In-Reply-To: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
References: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv1qEB_6JyCihJ7fQ3ymk9HNfqTifMk-Kx6EfCaJg1Cz6Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 The Avantguardian <avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com> wrote:

>
> > I am shocked that there is so little public discourse regarding Rand
> Paul's fillllibuster of John Brennan because of drone strikes. I thought it
> was one of most thoughtful political maneuvers of our time. That the POTUS
> could order Americans killed on American soil, anonymously by remote
> control, without due process, is a chilling thought.


A storm in a teacup. Yesterday Attorney General Eric Holder wrote a very
short letter to Sen. Rand Paul and said, "Does the president have the
authority to use a weaponized drone to kill an American not engaged in
combat on American soil? The answer is no."

  John K Clark
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From sparge at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 19:22:00 2013
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 14:22:00 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1qEB_6JyCihJ7fQ3ymk9HNfqTifMk-Kx6EfCaJg1Cz6Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <CAJPayv1qEB_6JyCihJ7fQ3ymk9HNfqTifMk-Kx6EfCaJg1Cz6Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2cbeXGfVF-zPgzJYOh87yFUikjxhH417J_MwtYNxTHi-w@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 2:08 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> A storm in a teacup. Yesterday Attorney General Eric Holder wrote a very
> short letter to Sen. Rand Paul and said, "Does the president have the
> authority to use a weaponized drone to kill an American not engaged in
> combat on American soil? The answer is no."


What does "engaged in combat" mean? Nobody is suggesting that the Prez can
or would dispatch drones to take out people he just really dislikes. But
some American Al Qaeda wanna-be sitting in the basement of his parent's
house who's in contact with real terrorists and making real plans to kill
people with a shoe bomb or underwear bomb or R/C plane bomb? Would that not
be considered "combat"?

-Dave
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From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 19:53:42 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 11:53:42 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2cbeXGfVF-zPgzJYOh87yFUikjxhH417J_MwtYNxTHi-w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <CAJPayv1qEB_6JyCihJ7fQ3ymk9HNfqTifMk-Kx6EfCaJg1Cz6Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2cbeXGfVF-zPgzJYOh87yFUikjxhH417J_MwtYNxTHi-w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQoFr6HBTzAYhw5qdFr3kn+O0_M5MamhtgsFTdaKTfX+A@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 11:22 AM, Dave Sill <sparge at gmail.com> wrote:
> What does "engaged in combat" mean? Nobody is suggesting that the Prez can
> or would dispatch drones to take out people he just really dislikes. But
> some American Al Qaeda wanna-be sitting in the basement of his parent's
> house who's in contact with real terrorists and making real plans to kill
> people with a shoe bomb or underwear bomb or R/C plane bomb? Would that not
> be considered "combat"?

No, that would be considered "criminal", and the police - not missile-equipped
drones - would be dispatched in that case.  Are being, even.

At least, unless and until the guy starts shooting the cops.  But even then,
police snipers are more practical - not just morally and politically, but
economically in this scenario.  Sometimes, even bloated government
bureaucracies prefer to go with the cheaper solution.


From sparge at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 20:06:42 2013
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 15:06:42 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQoFr6HBTzAYhw5qdFr3kn+O0_M5MamhtgsFTdaKTfX+A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <CAJPayv1qEB_6JyCihJ7fQ3ymk9HNfqTifMk-Kx6EfCaJg1Cz6Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2cbeXGfVF-zPgzJYOh87yFUikjxhH417J_MwtYNxTHi-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQoFr6HBTzAYhw5qdFr3kn+O0_M5MamhtgsFTdaKTfX+A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2fHv0w4Weq8-qqv6kUb5=OQ1Y-Xs01Te15WyyJsKASPtA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 2:53 PM, Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com> wrote:

> No, that would be considered "criminal", and the police - not
> missile-equipped
> drones - would be dispatched in that case.  Are being, even.
>

Right, and the events of 2001-09-11 were criminal, too. But politicians
declared them acts of war. Now all terrorists are combatants. Yes, of
course, a police response would make sense, but since when do
governments--the US gov't, especially--behave reasonably? In the past
they've responded with armed forces, but who's to say what they would have
done if they could have punched up a drone to do the job instead? The same
properties of drone attacks that make them to attractive in other countries
also apply in the US--with the *possible* exception of greater backlash to
collateral damage.

At least, unless and until the guy starts shooting the cops.  But even then,
> police snipers are more practical - not just morally and politically, but
> economically in this scenario.  Sometimes, even bloated government
> bureaucracies prefer to go with the cheaper solution.
>

Yeah, you'er right. I'm sure there's no need/plan for domestic drone
installations.

-Dave
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From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 20:11:48 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 20:11:48 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2cbeXGfVF-zPgzJYOh87yFUikjxhH417J_MwtYNxTHi-w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <CAJPayv1qEB_6JyCihJ7fQ3ymk9HNfqTifMk-Kx6EfCaJg1Cz6Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2cbeXGfVF-zPgzJYOh87yFUikjxhH417J_MwtYNxTHi-w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgPbkca4cJc71+5B7pM5B-voLT+acFbj_+bbmskMt2kOw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 7:22 PM, Dave Sill  wrote:
> What does "engaged in combat" mean? Nobody is suggesting that the Prez can
> or would dispatch drones to take out people he just really dislikes. But
> some American Al Qaeda wanna-be sitting in the basement of his parent's
> house who's in contact with real terrorists and making real plans to kill
> people with a shoe bomb or underwear bomb or R/C plane bomb? Would that not
> be considered "combat"?
>
>

It is political half-truths from the same man that just said that he
would not (and did not) prosecute the big banks if he thought it might
cause damage to the economy.

As one blogger commented:
Quote:
Specifically, Holder did not say ?we are legally constrained by the
Constitution from depriving people of life, liberty or property
without due process of law, and from using military force on U.S.
soil?.  Instead, he said that the Obama administration was so far
abstaining from using a power it already has as a current ?policy?
decision.
-------


BillK



From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 20:17:56 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 12:17:56 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2fHv0w4Weq8-qqv6kUb5=OQ1Y-Xs01Te15WyyJsKASPtA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <CAJPayv1qEB_6JyCihJ7fQ3ymk9HNfqTifMk-Kx6EfCaJg1Cz6Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2cbeXGfVF-zPgzJYOh87yFUikjxhH417J_MwtYNxTHi-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQoFr6HBTzAYhw5qdFr3kn+O0_M5MamhtgsFTdaKTfX+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2fHv0w4Weq8-qqv6kUb5=OQ1Y-Xs01Te15WyyJsKASPtA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRR_A2d+NwcsgJ3uab=X9HAAZOAJg=JvR5dwCrkY9tu7Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 12:06 PM, Dave Sill <sparge at gmail.com> wrote:
> Right, and the events of 2001-09-11 were criminal, too. But politicians
> declared them acts of war.

After the explosions.  After people were killed.

Once people have actually died, the line gets fuzzier.  But while
someone's just planning to kill, has not yet actually done so, and
is on American soil (where there are police the US government
can send)?  All precedent suggests that police will be sent.


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 21:25:36 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 16:25:36 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2cbeXGfVF-zPgzJYOh87yFUikjxhH417J_MwtYNxTHi-w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <CAJPayv1qEB_6JyCihJ7fQ3ymk9HNfqTifMk-Kx6EfCaJg1Cz6Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2cbeXGfVF-zPgzJYOh87yFUikjxhH417J_MwtYNxTHi-w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv33HPRrJ0QW8BuD8H_f8jU0xB7J1sBneo97tKYwHH--Gg@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 2:22 PM, Dave Sill <sparge at gmail.com> wrote:

>> A storm in a teacup. Yesterday Attorney General Eric Holder wrote a very
>> short letter to Sen. Rand Paul and said, "Does the president have the
>> authority to use a weaponized drone to kill an American not engaged in
>> combat on American soil? The answer is no."
>
>
> > What does "engaged in combat" mean?
>

I think the meaning is clear. A terrorist holding 20 first graders hostage
and threatening to kill them would be engaging in combat. If a FBI sniper
got a clear shot and put a bullet through the terrorist's brain before he
hurt anyone I would have no objection and i doubt you would either. If they
determined that a small drone could kill the terrorist with less
possibility of collateral damage than a sniper could (although I doubt that
would be the case in most situations, at least not with existing drone
technology) then I don't see a moral dilemma; I don't think drones are
inherently more immoral than snipers. The moral technology is the one that
kills the most bad guys and the fewest good guys.

  John K Clark
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 22:08:06 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 15:08:06 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2fHv0w4Weq8-qqv6kUb5=OQ1Y-Xs01Te15WyyJsKASPtA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <CAJPayv1qEB_6JyCihJ7fQ3ymk9HNfqTifMk-Kx6EfCaJg1Cz6Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2cbeXGfVF-zPgzJYOh87yFUikjxhH417J_MwtYNxTHi-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQoFr6HBTzAYhw5qdFr3kn+O0_M5MamhtgsFTdaKTfX+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2fHv0w4Weq8-qqv6kUb5=OQ1Y-Xs01Te15WyyJsKASPtA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwYn4sSMv78_Rso01mtSLf8y2J=q_8+rjySp8iC-kqnUyg@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 1:06 PM, Dave Sill <sparge at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 2:53 PM, Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> No, that would be considered "criminal", and the police - not missile-equipped
>> drones - would be dispatched in that case.  Are being, even.
>
>
> Right, and the events of 2001-09-11 were criminal, too. But politicians declared them acts of war. Now all terrorists are combatants. Yes, of course, a police response would make sense, but since when do governments--the US gov't, especially--behave reasonably? In the past they've responded with armed forces, but who's to say what they would have done if they could have punched up a drone to do the job instead? The same properties of drone attacks that make them to attractive in other countries also apply in the US--with the *possible* exception of greater backlash to collateral damage.
>
>> At least, unless and until the guy starts shooting the cops.  But even then,
>> police snipers are more practical - not just morally and politically, but
>> economically in this scenario.  Sometimes, even bloated government
>> bureaucracies prefer to go with the cheaper solution.
>
>
> Yeah, you'er right. I'm sure there's no need/plan for domestic drone installations.


Dave,

  You could not be more wrong. There are federal drones flying above
Americans today. Whether any of them are armed I don't know.

The department of agriculture has admitted to using UAVs. Allegedly
for land use purposes, but if "land use" includes finding pot fields
on public land, who knows where that could go.
http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/pr/2011/110927.htm

Does anyone know how to decode this page?
http://gov-spending.solutionpipe.com/investment/211-uav-unmanned-aerial-vehicles
Is that saying they are spending $100,000 a year on this? I'm not good
at understanding what they are saying there... but it is short.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=faa-accepts-20-new-applications
This is an interesting article about various law enforcement agencies
and even indian reservations applying for UAV permits.

Here is a CNN report on the border patrol using drones, at one point
in the report they say they are filming 14 miles inside the US border.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHi2py3pNg4

There is no current over arching privacy protection relating to drones.
According to:
http://www.technewsdaily.com/16046-drones-respect-privacy-bill.html
"But the FAA's interim rules already make exceptions for civilian
government agencies to operate drones weighing 25 pounds or less."

In other words, this is a case of the technology being ahead of the
legislation, and for small drones, there seems to be even more
leniency.

HR 658 - The Federal Aviation Administration Act of 2012, was signed
into law on Valentine's day by president Obama, according to a
government website:
"Requires the FAA to develop a comprehensive plan for integration of
civil unmanned aircraft systems into national airspace within 270 days
of the enactment date of this bill, and requires the FAA to execute
the plan by September 30, 2015 (Sec. 332)."

According to some reviews of this legislation, up to 30,000 permits
are going to be issued by 2016. There is some alarmist stuff out
there, but these are civilian permits. What the government is going to
do is anyone's guess. But I have heard that law enforcement in many
citites across the US are looking into the purchase of UAVs for law
enforcement. These are unlikely to be armed in the short term, as most
police helicopters are not heavily armed either... but the trend is a
bit disturbing, especially for privacy advocates.

In reply to the original post, there is a LOT of attention being paid
to Rand Paul's filibuster by the right wing media, particularly Shawn
Hannity and Rush Limbaugh to a somewhat lesser extent. Paul has
appeared on Sean Hannity's radio program twice this week.

-Kelly



From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 22:24:41 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 14:24:41 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwYn4sSMv78_Rso01mtSLf8y2J=q_8+rjySp8iC-kqnUyg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <CAJPayv1qEB_6JyCihJ7fQ3ymk9HNfqTifMk-Kx6EfCaJg1Cz6Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2cbeXGfVF-zPgzJYOh87yFUikjxhH417J_MwtYNxTHi-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQoFr6HBTzAYhw5qdFr3kn+O0_M5MamhtgsFTdaKTfX+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2fHv0w4Weq8-qqv6kUb5=OQ1Y-Xs01Te15WyyJsKASPtA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwYn4sSMv78_Rso01mtSLf8y2J=q_8+rjySp8iC-kqnUyg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ58au+J9+nJ5e_9TYH99-T+cHX3hF+whVbbcHKjaKETw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 2:08 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:
> There are federal drones flying above
> Americans today. Whether any of them are armed I don't know.

The only ones that are armed, are tests and development projects.
The ones in actual use aren't armed.  While that could change...

> The department of agriculture has admitted to using UAVs. Allegedly
> for land use purposes, but if "land use" includes finding pot fields
> on public land, who knows where that could go.
> http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/pr/2011/110927.htm

...it is as guaranteed as can be that, for instance, the Department
of Agriculture will not be operating armed drones - at least not ones
armed against humans.  At most, they'll be killing mosquitos and
such vermin.

It's one thing to cite the number of drones.  It's a completely
different thing to believe that most of them will ever be armed, or
that most of their users would arm them.  If you want to be worried
about government guns, look to the places that have always had
them: police and military.

Raising alarms because all these other agencies are using drones,
is like raising alarms about aerial photography because armed jet
fighters exist.  (Almost exactly like that, in fact, given the intended
use of most of these drones, and the differences between a drone
built to carry weapons and possibly be shot at vs. a drone built to
help farmers find infestations before they eat a lot of crops.)


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Mar  8 22:14:05 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2013 15:14:05 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv33HPRrJ0QW8BuD8H_f8jU0xB7J1sBneo97tKYwHH--Gg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <CAJPayv1qEB_6JyCihJ7fQ3ymk9HNfqTifMk-Kx6EfCaJg1Cz6Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2cbeXGfVF-zPgzJYOh87yFUikjxhH417J_MwtYNxTHi-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv33HPRrJ0QW8BuD8H_f8jU0xB7J1sBneo97tKYwHH--Gg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwYM-=2ntsOw6Q8njtqrkuJQ-PZuC5OYjtf6_1ukZ6RVYA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 2:25 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 2:22 PM, Dave Sill <sparge at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>>> >> A storm in a teacup. Yesterday Attorney General Eric Holder wrote a
>>> >> very short letter to Sen. Rand Paul and said, "Does the president have the
>>> >> authority to use a weaponized drone to kill an American not engaged in
>>> >> combat on American soil? The answer is no."
>>
>>
>> > What does "engaged in combat" mean?
>
>
> I think the meaning is clear. A terrorist holding 20 first graders hostage
> and threatening to kill them would be engaging in combat. If a FBI sniper
> got a clear shot and put a bullet through the terrorist's brain before he
> hurt anyone I would have no objection and i doubt you would either. If they
> determined that a small drone could kill the terrorist with less possibility
> of collateral damage than a sniper could (although I doubt that would be the
> case in most situations, at least not with existing drone technology) then I
> don't see a moral dilemma; I don't think drones are inherently more immoral
> than snipers. The moral technology is the one that kills the most bad guys
> and the fewest good guys.

What the federal government, especially the CIA, can do inside the
USA, and what law enforcement can do are two very different things in
our system. The difference matters because it goes to a separation of
powers. While the FBI has snipers, they were deployed lethally at Ruby
Ridge, for example. Most of that kind of work is done by SWAT teams
under more local control. This is as it should be imho. Shooting
people who are actively committing crimes, especially violent crimes
against other citizens, is entirely appropriate. Crime prevention is
not generally a mandate of the military, though exceptions have been
made in overseas operations relating to the "wars" on terrorism and
drugs. Domestic crime is not a military concern. The Department of
Homeland Security along with the Patriot Act of course muddies these
waters considerably.

-Kelly


From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Mar  9 10:34:48 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 9 Mar 2013 10:34:48 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
Message-ID: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>

We have discussed a few times whether scientific progress is slowing
down. Comparing the huge leap in inventions between 1940 and 1980 with
the Facebook and iPhone inventions of 1980 to 2013.

I have just come across another data point. And this is a real-life
commercial decision. Disney's Tomorrowland. This show was created in
1955 and regularly updated. But in 1998 renovation changed. The
Mission to Mars ride was replaced with a pizza parlour. The 'progress'
features are moving to movies, like Buzz Lightyear, Finding Nemo and
Wall-E.

Quote from the article:
Disney?s pessimistic attitude towards the rate of current advancement
comes from a place of truth. New, revolutionary ideas were coming out
on a consistent basis in the mid 1900s during Walt Disney?s
generation, but near the late 1900s progress as a whole slowed down.
Rather than innovating new and fresh ideas, the current generation
fine-tunes the revolutionary ideas of their predecessors.
It?s only a matter of time until the whole Tomorrowland sector becomes
a Disney themed montage. If technological development continues at
this rate, Tomorrowland may as well combine with Fantasyland as a
childish delusion from the past. As displayed by the modern
developments of both Disney movies and Disneyland, the once
flourishing future that Disney envisioned for the world is coming to a
rapid halt.
-----------------

<http://www.newgeography.com/content/003484-disney-stops-thinking-about-tomorrow>


BillK



From anders at aleph.se  Sat Mar  9 14:15:05 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 09 Mar 2013 14:15:05 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <201303080512.r285CZCU017767@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201303080512.r285CZCU017767@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <513B43E9.4000108@aleph.se>

On 08/03/2013 05:12, David Lubkin wrote:
> What musical instruments would need to be altered or played
> differently in order to sound the same when played on the space
> station or a lunar colony? (Because of the lower gravity and the
> lower air pressure.)

I looked at this question for roleplaying game purposes, finding some 
interesting papers and resources (mainly about other atmospheres). See 
this thread:
http://eclipsephase.com/space-acoustics

It is hard to be heard on Mars, Titan likely has great (if odd) 
acoustics, and some instruments sound odd on Venus.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com  Sat Mar  9 15:09:08 2013
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Sat, 9 Mar 2013 07:09:08 -0800 (PST)
Subject: [ExI] Fermi's Paradoxical Politburo
References: <CAPiwVB6PV-91brFR+D7yx4=vKpAQ-2N8v82eFoDUwCi4iWv5dg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armgM2E5yBCZFLcJU5Fi4NmREnKW-QRGaiddFyQDruOa4sQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130215103301.GI6172@leitl.org>
 <CAL_armib8jxFx9XsbcrRDeeyB6bTjAdadySUt1L5yeECVSe-+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <002d01ce0eb2$70dad440$52907cc0$@att.net> <5123A089.8030604@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv3MO6nSgKPL0K6pSO6dAP+pHOg8=n0Ahkg13MyDUL3Fyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <1361360727.93284.YahooMailNeo@web160502.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <004d01ce0f81$bdca4270$395ec750$@rainier66.com> 
Message-ID: <1362841748.64646.YahooMailNeo@web160501.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>

----- Original Message -----
> From: spike <spike at rainier66.com>
> To: 'The Avantguardian' <avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com>; 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Cc: 
> Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 7:48 AM
> Subject: RE: [ExI] Where are they? was Re: 2^57885161-1
> 
> 
>> ... On Behalf Of The Avantguardian
> ...
>> ...Perhaps your new law of physics?should be?that "cultures of an
> intelligent species cannot exist without inherent politics."??...Stuart
> LaForge
> ?
> _______________________________________________
>
?
Spike perceptively?writes:
?
> 
> I have long had a notion that we are missing something fundamentally
> important in the Fermi question.? Stuart gets close to it with his comment.
> Imagine that intelligence cannot evolve without competition, generation
> after generation for eons, allowing the most extreme in every niche to
> gradually rise to the top in whatever it is, so that you end up with a
> particular species that is the swiftest carnivore, the fiercest defender,
> the smartest beast.? That part of the argument is intuitive.? Now follow it
> to the next step: that same characteristic of competition which created the
> intelligent species eventually either limits or destroys further progress.
> By that model, competition giveth and competition taketh away.
>

Try this outlandish hypothesis on for size: intelligent civiizations stagnate when technological advancement becomes illegal. There are many civilizations paralyzed by fear of change in various stages prior to Kardashevian I->II phase change. Technological progress in civilization halts when sufficient technology evolves such that the ruling political structures can maintain totalitarian control of the bulk population and preserve their particular status quo indefinately. ??

?
----- Original Message -----
> From: BillK <pharos at gmail.com>
> To: Extropy Chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Cc: 
> Sent: Saturday, March 9, 2013 2:34 AM
> Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
> 
> We have discussed a few times whether scientific progress is slowing
> down. Comparing the huge leap in inventions between 1940 and 1980 with
> the Facebook and iPhone inventions of 1980 to 2013.
> 
> I have just come across another data point. And this is a real-life
> commercial decision. Disney's Tomorrowland. This show was created in
> 1955 and regularly updated. But in 1998 renovation changed. The
> Mission to Mars ride was replaced with a pizza parlour. The 'progress'
> features are moving to movies, like Buzz Lightyear, Finding Nemo and
> Wall-E.
> 
> Quote from the article:
> Disney?s pessimistic attitude towards the rate of current advancement
> comes from a place of truth. New, revolutionary ideas were coming out
> on a consistent basis in the mid 1900s during Walt Disney?s
> generation, but near the late 1900s progress as a whole slowed down.
> Rather than innovating new and fresh ideas, the current generation
> fine-tunes the revolutionary ideas of their predecessors.
> It?s only a matter of time until the whole Tomorrowland sector becomes
> a Disney themed montage. If technological development continues at
> this rate, Tomorrowland may as well combine with Fantasyland as a
> childish delusion from the past. As displayed by the modern
> developments of both Disney movies and Disneyland, the once
> flourishing future that Disney envisioned for the world is coming to a
> rapid halt.
> -----------------
> 
> http://www.newgeography.com/content/003484-disney-stops-thinking-about-tomorrow

And here Bill hits upon a symptom of of what I am describing. Civilizations in the galaxy are in a state of arrested technological development because before Dyson Spheres or Bradbury-Matryoshka Swarms could arise, the?ability of individuals to print nukes and other WMD?must become possible. And that is something no government,?human or otherwise, would allow..?
?
Stuart LaForge
?
?
"Ignorance is the curse of God; knowledge is the wing wherewith we fly to heaven." - William Shakespeare




From bbenzai at yahoo.com  Sat Mar  9 15:59:04 2013
From: bbenzai at yahoo.com (Ben Zaiboc)
Date: Sat, 9 Mar 2013 07:59:04 -0800 (PST)
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
In-Reply-To: <mailman.1.1362830402.26187.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <1362844744.27499.YahooMailClassic@web165004.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>

BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> We have discussed a few times whether scientific progress is
> slowing
> down. Comparing the huge leap in inventions between 1940 and
> 1980 with
> the Facebook and iPhone inventions of 1980 to 2013.


I'm at a loss to understand the idea that scientific progress is slowing down.  There's a difference between new ideas, and actually making progress.  Maybe there are less "Gee-Whiz" ideas being generated than there used to be, but this in no way detracts from the immense amount of scientific progress being made, daily, these days.

As more and more areas become 'uploaded' into the domain of digital data, they become able to take advantage of Moore's law, and the increase in the amount of information about How The World Works accelerates accordingly.  This represents a mounting head of water, being held back only by human institutions, politics, ancient ideas about how things should be done.  That dam will burst before too long, I feel.  Things like the Open Source movement, Pirate Parties, Maker communities, Hackerspaces, etc., are the cracks in the dam.

Maybe progress is subject to something like 'punctuated equilibrium', but it's definitely not slowing down.

Ben Zaiboc



From jrd1415 at gmail.com  Sat Mar  9 17:20:01 2013
From: jrd1415 at gmail.com (Jeff Davis)
Date: Sat, 9 Mar 2013 10:20:01 -0700
Subject: [ExI] old brains made young
Message-ID: <CAHUTwkNrA1V-mj6VnjO8dBSc6xSQL4ehELqYr2C94b6rf622QA@mail.gmail.com>

You all should find this interesting.

The flip of a single molecular switch helps create the mature neuronal
connections that allow the brain to bridge the gap between adolescent
impressionability and adult stability. Now Yale School of Medicine
researchers have reversed the process, recreating a youthful brain that
facilitated both learning and healing in the adult mouse.

I found it on Brian Wang's blog Next Big Future.

http://news.yale.edu/2013/03/06/flip-single-molecular-switch-makes-old-brain-young

Best, Jeff Davis

         "Everything's hard till you know how to do it."
                                          Ray Charles
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Mar 10 01:16:18 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sat, 9 Mar 2013 17:16:18 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <513B43E9.4000108@aleph.se>
References: <201303080512.r285CZCU017767@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <513B43E9.4000108@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <010301ce1d2c$df6ecc30$9e4c6490$@rainier66.com>

On 08/03/2013 05:12, David Lubkin wrote:
> What musical instruments would need to be altered or played 
> differently in order to sound the same when played on the space 
> station or a lunar colony? (Because of the lower gravity and the lower 
> air pressure.)


I forgot to mention, I once whoofed a couple lungfuls of helium and played
the sax.  The pitch goes up, pretty similarly to the way it makes your voice
higher.  What we should do then is go up to the hyperbaric chamber at
Stanford and see what the instrument sounds like at 2 atmospheres.  I
imagine it would be lower, since horns play flat when it is cold outside:
the air is denser.  I would suppose it would take 4 atmospheres in the HB
chamber to get the instrument to play a full octave lower, but you know
what, David you have one hell of an idea there.  A baritone sax is an octave
lower than an alto sax, but the bari has big clumsy keys.  You can fly like
the wind on an alto, since the pads don't need to be pressed as far, and
they are closer together.  If you want to play a trio with alto, tenor and
baritone, you could use a sound on sound recorder and a hyperbaric chamber,
with only the one horn, the fast one.

I don't know how that would work with brass instruments.

Surely someone somewhere has played a reed instrument in a hyperbaric
chamber.

spike





From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Mar 10 01:40:38 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sat, 9 Mar 2013 17:40:38 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Fermi's Paradoxical Politburo
In-Reply-To: <1362841748.64646.YahooMailNeo@web160501.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
References: <CAPiwVB6PV-91brFR+D7yx4=vKpAQ-2N8v82eFoDUwCi4iWv5dg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armgM2E5yBCZFLcJU5Fi4NmREnKW-QRGaiddFyQDruOa4sQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130215103301.GI6172@leitl.org>
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 <002d01ce0eb2$70dad440$52907cc0$@att.net> <5123A089.8030604@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv3MO6nSgKPL0K6pSO6dAP+pHOg8=n0Ahkg13MyDUL3Fyg@mail.gmail.com>
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 <004d01ce0f81$bdca4270$395ec750$@rainier66.com>
 <1362841748.64646.YahooMailNeo@web160501.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <010f01ce1d30$45394560$cfabd020$@rainier66.com>

>...] On Behalf Of The Avantguardian
Subject: [ExI] Fermi's Paradoxical Politburo

----- Original Message -----
> From: spike <spike at rainier66.com>
...
> _______________________________________________
>
 
Spike perceptively writes:
 
> 
>>... I have long had a notion that we are missing something fundamentally 
> important in the Fermi question.  Stuart gets close to it with his comment.
...
>> By that model, competition giveth and competition taketh away.
>

>...Try this outlandish hypothesis on for size: intelligent civiizations stagnate when technological advancement becomes illegal. There are many civilizations paralyzed by fear of change in various stages prior to Kardashevian I->II phase change. Technological progress in civilization halts when sufficient technology evolves such that the ruling political structures can maintain totalitarian control of the bulk population and preserve their particular status quo indefinately.   

 
Possibly that, or technological progress slows as an intelligent species gets comfortable.  When we are comfortable, we are complacent and conservative.  We develop a disdainful attitude toward innovation.  This is the featherbed model: the guy sleeping in a comfortable bed under a pile of soft quilts lies still, whereas the guy sleeping on a park bench under a pile of newspapers shifts often.  Happy, comfortable people don't want change, they want sameness.  It isn't only comfort, but the perception that things couldn't be better.  I want to always project the notion that things are good and things can be better, waaaay better.

spike




From brent.allsop at canonizer.com  Sun Mar 10 04:59:06 2013
From: brent.allsop at canonizer.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Sat, 09 Mar 2013 21:59:06 -0700
Subject: [ExI] How to Bridging the Divide and communicate?
Message-ID: <513C131A.8090101@canonizer.com>


Extropians,

As I love pointing out, there is a huge gulf within humanity, with 
hateful, militaristic atheists on one side, and spiritualists, or 
qualophiles, on the other.  Everyone desperately doing all they can to 
censor and destroy anyone appearing to be even close to the other side.  
And, as usual, the truth, often somewhere in the middle, is always a 
casualty of this blinding war.  Facing this headwind seems to be a big 
part of why Canonizer.com is not more popular yet.

Some of you may know, James and I submitted our "Amplifying the Wisdom 
of the Crowd" paper to the International Conference on Social 
Intelligence.  As luck would have it, at least one of our reviewers 
appeared to me to be one of these censoring extremists.  But I'll 
include part of his 'review', so you can decide for yourself:

"The philosophy in the paper is unclear, there are no scientific results 
and the contents of the test web site mentioned in the paper not really 
interesting. As a case study, this example web site fails to demonstrate 
the potential of the system developed. The web site is currently full of 
'crackpot science'."

Evidently, the surprising to everyone scientific consensus survey 
results now from including experts from Dennett, to Chalmers, to Lehar, 
and a growing number of others supporting "Representational Qualia 
Theory", doesn't count, and isn't interesting, because the results are 
nothing but 'crackpot science'.  This reviewer gave us the most negative 
possible score, with the highest possible self surety rating, that this 
shouldn't be accepted.  I'm sure anyone mentions this kind of "crackpot 
science" in any hard neural science conference, similarly is likely 
censored.  Does anyone have any other similar first hand stories of 
feeling like you've been censored in this way?  It's amazing how fast 
you get the very real 'cold shoulder' in such 'hard science' 
conferences, once you even mention 'qualia'.

Anyway, in an effort to find some way to bridge the gap on both sides of 
this immoral war, blinding everyone to what should be obvious, I'm 
thinking of adding something like the below to the front page of 
canonizer.com, and wanted to get any and all thoughts.  Could something 
like this help?

Upwards,

Brent Allsop



Note to Qualophobes, or anyone that hates or wants to censor qualia 
theories or classify all the emerging consensus theories below as 
'crackpot science':

The people developing this system are doing so because they aren't 
haters, don't want to sensor anything.  But, instead want to know what 
everyone thinks, concisely and quantitatively.  Only by knowing what 
others think, in their terminology, can we help, only with that, do we 
have a hope of communicating, and we'll likely help ourselves as much as 
anyone, by knowing and valuing, what you and everyone think, and why.

To date, a growing number of leaders in this field have already 
contributed to this survey, in various degrees, now including <a href=" 
http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/81/4">Steven Lehar</a>, <a 
href="http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/81/21">Daniel Dennett</a>, <a 
href="http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/81/2">David Chalmers</a>, <a 
href="http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/81/22">Stuart Hameroff</a>, <a 
href="http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/81/17">John Smythies</a>....  
Despite the diversity of all participants, surprising to most, there 
seems to be a significant amount of consensus emerging, on a great many 
things, as can now be indisputably seen below.  Whatever you think about 
consciousness, it would really help everyone if you could get it 
included in this survey, so we can see, concisely and quantitatively, if 
your theory can maintain anywhere near as much consensus as these 
emerging theories are achieving.

Oh, and also note, that most of the leading consensus theories are 
making falsifiable predictions about just what where and how to effigy 
discover and objectively share what is important to consciousness.  The 
focus at Canonizer.com, is what would it take for the supporters of a 
camp to consider their camp falsified?  The prediction is that it is 
only a matter of time before science demonstrates such to everyone, 
forcing all experts into the same camp.  That's the good thing about 
good theoretical science.  If you think these theories are 'crackpot 
science', it'd sure help everyone to see any better theoretical theories 
you may propose as less naive or less crackpot, and to see if they can 
match the amount of consensus the best theories are achieving.  Knowing 
how many people agree with you might hint at just how naive your own 
theories might or might not be?





From pjmanney at gmail.com  Sun Mar 10 05:23:38 2013
From: pjmanney at gmail.com (PJ Manney)
Date: Sat, 9 Mar 2013 21:23:38 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Mar 9, 2013 at 2:34 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> Quote from the article:
> Disney?s pessimistic attitude towards the rate of current advancement
> comes from a place of truth. New, revolutionary ideas were coming out
> on a consistent basis in the mid 1900s during Walt Disney?s
> generation, but near the late 1900s progress as a whole slowed down.
> Rather than innovating new and fresh ideas, the current generation
> fine-tunes the revolutionary ideas of their predecessors.
> It?s only a matter of time until the whole Tomorrowland sector becomes
> a Disney themed montage. If technological development continues at
> this rate, Tomorrowland may as well combine with Fantasyland as a
> childish delusion from the past. As displayed by the modern
> developments of both Disney movies and Disneyland, the once
> flourishing future that Disney envisioned for the world is coming to a
> rapid halt.

<sigh>

Please don't extrapolate grand historical trends from BS.  The Walt
Disney Company doesn't change Tomorrowland because Disney's leaders
since Walt's death don't care about the future.  They can't see beyond
the next dividend payment schedule or stock price expectation.  They'd
rather do what their marketing departments say costs the least to
accomplish to change the rides just enough to both maintain safety and
create the slightest bit of novelty to encourage revisits.  This is
about a lack of vision and cheapness.  Not future trends.  Future
trends (and correcting them when they don't turn out quite as
expected) costs too much money.

Mickey Mouse (and his ever growing bunch of friends) are all they care
about.  Just ask the US Congress and the US copyright office.

PJ



From clementlawyer at gmail.com  Sun Mar 10 07:30:09 2013
From: clementlawyer at gmail.com (James Clement)
Date: Sun, 10 Mar 2013 03:30:09 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
In-Reply-To: <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CA+LBAbT7AQkZ4vQxmg2OGAmrF-6uE1KQOSBagQ2FcrdFjZAjnw@mail.gmail.com>

I strongly agree with Ben and PJ. The Disney directors, who only cared
about money (other than Walt's brother, Roy) started scrapping Walt's plans
for the "Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow" (EPCOT), as soon as
Walt died. The Company can spin it all they want, but the lack of vision
was theirs, not the World's.

Check out this website, dedicated to Walt's original plans:
https://sites.google.com/site/theoriginalepcot/


James Clement
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Mar 10 10:07:26 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 10 Mar 2013 10:07:26 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
In-Reply-To: <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjj_HS85jsrQEuvXm_g5buid=v8e=vWT1wEY5WHipwZNg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Mar 10, 2013 at 5:23 AM, PJ Manney wrote:
> Please don't extrapolate grand historical trends from BS.  The Walt
> Disney Company doesn't change Tomorrowland because Disney's leaders
> since Walt's death don't care about the future.  They can't see beyond
> the next dividend payment schedule or stock price expectation.  They'd
> rather do what their marketing departments say costs the least to
> accomplish to change the rides just enough to both maintain safety and
> create the slightest bit of novelty to encourage revisits.  This is
> about a lack of vision and cheapness.  Not future trends.  Future
> trends (and correcting them when they don't turn out quite as
> expected) costs too much money.
>
>

Agreed that Disney are trying to create what sells and appeals to the public.

Surely that is an indicator of the direction that public interest is moving in?
The general public like the retro 1950s science fiction view of the future.

Whereas in the real world, man in space has disappeared since the moon
shots. Transport is still cars, with some tuning of the power systems.
Kitchen equipment hasn't changed in fifty years.
I think the point is that shuffling bits in a computer is far easier
than developing new space technology.

I think there has been a generational change. Today the general public
care more about getting a job, paying medical bills, getting a
pension, just day to day surviving. The vision of future splendour
seems to be receding further every day, so people retreat into
nostalgia and entertainment in virtual reality.

I don't think it is comfort that is driving this. I think it is a
feeling that the world is out of control, has gone crazy and people
just want it to stop. (But maybe that's just me!)  :)


BillK


From anders at aleph.se  Sun Mar 10 11:44:22 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 10 Mar 2013 11:44:22 +0000
Subject: [ExI] How to Bridging the Divide and communicate?
In-Reply-To: <513C131A.8090101@canonizer.com>
References: <513C131A.8090101@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <513C7216.6010401@aleph.se>

Don't extrapolate too much from reviewer stupidity. We all get these 
ridiculous reviews from time to time, clear signs that the reviewer 
didn't read or understand the paper. Unfortunately it is part of the 
semi-brokenness of the current peer review system.

On 10/03/2013 04:59, Brent Allsop wrote:
> "The philosophy in the paper is unclear, there are no scientific 
> results and the contents of the test web site mentioned in the paper 
> not really interesting. As a case study, this example web site fails 
> to demonstrate the potential of the system developed. The web site is 
> currently full of 'crackpot science'."
>
> Evidently, the surprising to everyone scientific consensus survey 
> results now from including experts from Dennett, to Chalmers, to 
> Lehar, and a growing number of others supporting "Representational 
> Qualia Theory", doesn't count, and isn't interesting, because the 
> results are nothing but 'crackpot science'.  This reviewer gave us the 
> most negative possible score, with the highest possible self surety 
> rating, that this shouldn't be accepted.  I'm sure anyone mentions 
> this kind of "crackpot science" in any hard neural science conference, 
> similarly is likely censored.  Does anyone have any other similar 
> first hand stories of feeling like you've been censored in this way?  
> It's amazing how fast you get the very real 'cold shoulder' in such 
> 'hard science' conferences, once you even mention 'qualia'.

You are not being censored. The reviewer just didn't like your paper and 
told you why. The conference is an engineering science conference, so 
you should not expect a shred of understanding of philosophy from the 
reviewer. In fact, looking at the call for papers I get the distinct 
impression that Canonizer doesn't fit in very well in any of the 
impact/application areas as stated, and presumably you did not do any 
study on its performance (by whatever metric) or claim it has some 
interesting algorithmic properties, so it doesn't really belong in the 
computing/informatics topics. I would suggest looking for another 
conference.


> Anyway, in an effort to find some way to bridge the gap on both sides 
> of this immoral war, blinding everyone to what should be obvious, I'm 
> thinking of adding something like the below to the front page of 
> canonizer.com, and wanted to get any and all thoughts.  Could 
> something like this help?

It would help make you seem like crackpots.

Seriously, any site that starts by denouncing some opposing group looks 
bad. Especially when accusing them of trying to censor information, and 
get involved in a mini-rant about a particular theory. I assume 
Canonizer is intended to be about other things than consciousness debate?

Right now you are in a post-rejection funk. It will pass (I had one last 
week).


-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From anders at aleph.se  Sun Mar 10 11:28:50 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 10 Mar 2013 11:28:50 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjj_HS85jsrQEuvXm_g5buid=v8e=vWT1wEY5WHipwZNg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjj_HS85jsrQEuvXm_g5buid=v8e=vWT1wEY5WHipwZNg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <513C6E72.6050506@aleph.se>

On 10/03/2013 10:07, BillK wrote:
> Surely that is an indicator of the direction that public interest is 
> moving in? The general public like the retro 1950s science fiction 
> view of the future.

Maybe because the kind of future *we* envision actually scares them? Or 
for that matter, most of the other future visions peddled by groups with 
some kind of vision (say a green ecotopia) tend to be off-putting?

The 50s sf future was 50s society writ large, thanks to big technology. 
There were roaring starships, but the crews would be blond captains with 
neat haircuts and no minorities in sight. There would be super-cities 
powered by endless energy, but what went on in those cities was *normal* 
stuff. What has happened since then is that we have realized that 1) 
technology and the future means social change - views on what is normal, 
moral and acceptable change. 2) we live in a far more overtly diverse 
world, were we recognize (even if we do not like it) that a lot of 
people with very divergent views will have a hand in shaping the future. 
3) we have learned (or made it part of our culture) to recognize risks 
and unintended consequences everywhere. Together, 1-3 makes the future 
weird and risky. Visions like neat ecotopias that try to ignore this 
feel fake. Visions that include the full complexity are hard to convey 
neatly and are not unalloyed good futures.

I think it is generally true that people are less positive about the 
future. But at the same time, it looms much larger. The word has risen 
in usage since 1970 to a plateau higher than the bump in 1940-1950. This 
coincides with a steady growth of the word "risk" that also start around 
1970.
http://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=risk%2C+future&year_start=1800&year_end=2000&corpus=15&smoothing=3&share=

What to do? I think it would be a mistake to try to promote merely 
optimism or technology will solve everything memes. Rather I think we 
need to promote memes of ambition, willingness to take risk, willingness 
to work at *making* the future. People feel much better about things 
that are within their sphere of control, or even where they feel they 
are doing something.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Mar 10 15:23:25 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sun, 10 Mar 2013 08:23:25 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjj_HS85jsrQEuvXm_g5buid=v8e=vWT1wEY5WHipwZNg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjj_HS85jsrQEuvXm_g5buid=v8e=vWT1wEY5WHipwZNg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <002f01ce1da3$36716940$a3543bc0$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?

>
>...Agreed that Disney are trying to create what sells and appeals to the
public...

Ja, this is how businesses evolve.

>...Surely that is an indicator of the direction that public interest is
moving in?...I don't think it is comfort that is driving this. I think it is
a feeling that the world is out of control, has gone crazy and people just
want it to stop. (But maybe that's just me!)  :)...BillK
_______________________________________________

I agree it is a common perception, one that can be harnessed with effective
advertising.  A notion in the advertising world is that sex sells, but death
sells better.  So what we are seeing is the success of advertising to the
masses, planting the notions of danger for profit.  Evidence, see gun and
ammo sales in the US in the past four years.  

I agree that the perception exists of a world gone crazy and out of control.
However I compare now to the 60s, and it seems to be just the opposite.  I
see a world far more sane and more in control than ever before, and I just
want it to go.  For instance, in the masses once entertained themselves with
recreational drugs.  Now, it is primarily video games.  Given the two, I
suppose the videos are less harmful, even after we recognize that they may
be influencing people to go on murderous rampages.  One can scarcely imagine
anything more out of control and collectively insane than world war 2.

spike



From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Mar 10 16:13:06 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sun, 10 Mar 2013 09:13:06 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
In-Reply-To: <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <003c01ce1daa$278d98c0$76a8ca40$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of PJ Manney
Sent: Saturday, March 09, 2013 9:24 PM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?

On Sat, Mar 9, 2013 at 2:34 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> Quote from the article:
>>... Disney's pessimistic attitude towards the rate of current advancement 
> comes from a place of truth. New, revolutionary ideas were coming out 
> on a consistent basis in the mid 1900s during Walt Disney's 
> generation, but near the late 1900s progress as a whole slowed down...

>...Please don't extrapolate grand historical trends from BS.  The Walt
Disney Company doesn't change Tomorrowland because Disney's leaders since
Walt's death don't care about the future.  They can't see beyond the next
dividend payment schedule or stock price expectation...PJ

_______________________________________________

Ja and there is another important thing here.  A huge market today is in
grandparents taking their grandchildren to Disneyland and Disneyworld, and
reliving how it was when they were the age their grandchildren are now.  I
was about 10 when Epcot opened.  I can see plenty of stuff there today that
looks vintage.  I can see how it would be fun to take grandchildren to see
that, see the world again through their eyes.

It is the CEO's job to maximize profits.  Profit is good.  Profit is the
future.  Vintage futurism is what the people want.  Real futurism is to be
found in places like the San Jose Tech Museum, to some extent.

spike



From brent.allsop at canonizer.com  Sun Mar 10 19:45:37 2013
From: brent.allsop at canonizer.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Sun, 10 Mar 2013 13:45:37 -0600
Subject: [ExI] How to Bridging the Divide and communicate?
In-Reply-To: <513C7216.6010401@aleph.se>
References: <513C131A.8090101@canonizer.com> <513C7216.6010401@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <513CE2E1.2080008@canonizer.com>


Thanks Anders,  That really helps.

I tried to explicit say it only feels like I'm being censored, in an as 
you say probably much better a post rejection func.

Brent


On 3/10/2013 5:44 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> Don't extrapolate too much from reviewer stupidity. We all get these 
> ridiculous reviews from time to time, clear signs that the reviewer 
> didn't read or understand the paper. Unfortunately it is part of the 
> semi-brokenness of the current peer review system.
>
> On 10/03/2013 04:59, Brent Allsop wrote:
>> "The philosophy in the paper is unclear, there are no scientific 
>> results and the contents of the test web site mentioned in the paper 
>> not really interesting. As a case study, this example web site fails 
>> to demonstrate the potential of the system developed. The web site is 
>> currently full of 'crackpot science'."
>>
>> Evidently, the surprising to everyone scientific consensus survey 
>> results now from including experts from Dennett, to Chalmers, to 
>> Lehar, and a growing number of others supporting "Representational 
>> Qualia Theory", doesn't count, and isn't interesting, because the 
>> results are nothing but 'crackpot science'.  This reviewer gave us 
>> the most negative possible score, with the highest possible self 
>> surety rating, that this shouldn't be accepted.  I'm sure anyone 
>> mentions this kind of "crackpot science" in any hard neural science 
>> conference, similarly is likely censored.  Does anyone have any other 
>> similar first hand stories of feeling like you've been censored in 
>> this way?  It's amazing how fast you get the very real 'cold 
>> shoulder' in such 'hard science' conferences, once you even mention 
>> 'qualia'.
>
> You are not being censored. The reviewer just didn't like your paper 
> and told you why. The conference is an engineering science conference, 
> so you should not expect a shred of understanding of philosophy from 
> the reviewer. In fact, looking at the call for papers I get the 
> distinct impression that Canonizer doesn't fit in very well in any of 
> the impact/application areas as stated, and presumably you did not do 
> any study on its performance (by whatever metric) or claim it has some 
> interesting algorithmic properties, so it doesn't really belong in the 
> computing/informatics topics. I would suggest looking for another 
> conference.
>
>
>> Anyway, in an effort to find some way to bridge the gap on both sides 
>> of this immoral war, blinding everyone to what should be obvious, I'm 
>> thinking of adding something like the below to the front page of 
>> canonizer.com, and wanted to get any and all thoughts.  Could 
>> something like this help?
>
> It would help make you seem like crackpots.
>
> Seriously, any site that starts by denouncing some opposing group 
> looks bad. Especially when accusing them of trying to censor 
> information, and get involved in a mini-rant about a particular 
> theory. I assume Canonizer is intended to be about other things than 
> consciousness debate?
>
> Right now you are in a post-rejection funk. It will pass (I had one 
> last week).
>
>



From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Mar 11 06:08:54 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sun, 10 Mar 2013 23:08:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
References: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com> 
Message-ID: <005901ce1e1e$e9173ef0$bb45bcd0$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: spike [mailto:spike at rainier66.com] 
...

_______________________________________________

>...Ja and there is another important thing here.  A huge market today is in
grandparents taking their grandchildren to Disneyland and Disneyworld, and
reliving how it was when they were the age their grandchildren are
now...spike

There is another consideration regarding retro-futurism.  Consider the
biggest or most important developments we envisioned 40 years ago regarding
how life would be 40 years in the future.  Consider what we missed as well
as what we anticipated.  In any group brainstorming this question, someone
will envision flying cars and Star Trek transporters.  Clearly we wouldn't
need both, and just as clearly, the ST transporter is way more advanced.  So
let us consider those things.  Assume miracle engineering and manufacturing,
so that any prole can afford a flying car.  Why would that be so great?  It
would reduce traffic, the time to get to the office, but that would reduce
our motivation to reduce travel.

OK consider the ST transporter then.  Travel becomes free and completely
unlimited.  COOL!  Except that with travel delays, we say goodbye to all
privacy and most security.  Kirk and the lads could beam into anywhere and
back out.  So any radical Presbyterian could beam into the bedroom of any
teenage couple, slay  both unmarried infidels with a hearty Calvin Akbar,
beam back out, and we would never know who did that.  If we had sufficient
security systems to identify the perp, goodbye privacy.  In place of that,
we get the internet, which does cost us privacy to some extent, but at least
it is far more secure.

What are some of the other future visions?  Many, perhaps most of them had
to do with advanced forms of warfare.  Now our most advanced forms of
warfare are computer viruses.  Well, OK then, good deal.

Where in 50  year old futurist literature do we find anything analogous to
the modern internet?  I never saw it.

Super advanced robotics?  We are gradually getting there.  Still haven't
solved the problem of what to do with all the jobless humans.

Star Trek communicators?  We pretty much have that one: we can talk to
anyone anywhere on the globe in real time, using voice if that is really
necessary.  Skype makes it free.  OK, good deal.

We still have disease, haven't made all that much progress on many of them,
damn.  We still have addiction, all the classic human foible stuff, but it
is not at all clear we really want to give up all our favorite vices.

Overall, I would give humanity a good solid B, possibly a B+ on how the
future has turned out in my adult lifetime.

spike 



From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Mar 11 10:28:48 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 11 Mar 2013 10:28:48 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
In-Reply-To: <005901ce1e1e$e9173ef0$bb45bcd0$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <005901ce1e1e$e9173ef0$bb45bcd0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjX9Htpd9kp3gZy9au3Md5gnuY+2CQP-Cb37dxgf7uN=A@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 11, 2013 at 6:08 AM, spike  wrote:
<snip>
> What are some of the other future visions?  Many, perhaps most of them had
> to do with advanced forms of warfare.  Now our most advanced forms of
> warfare are computer viruses.  Well, OK then, good deal.
>
> Where in 50  year old futurist literature do we find anything analogous to
> the modern internet?  I never saw it.
>

Remember, science fiction writers are not futurists. They are authors
trying to tell a good story. It is fairly easy to imagine a new
gadget. But more difficult to imagine all the societal implications of
said gadget. Especially as in the real future said gadget will likely
arrive along with many other gadgets and changes in society. An SF
story doesn't have room for pages of exposition about future society.

Who predicted the internet is a popular topic in SF.
Try this page for an overwhelming history of the many writers who
wrote about computers, machine intelligence and the internet.
<http://www.sf-encyclopedia.com/entry/computers>

Though they don't mention "The Machine Stops" by E. M. Forster.
Published in The Oxford and Cambridge Review (November 1909).
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_Stops>
or even George Orwell's '1984' written in 1948 that had a two-way
screen in every room and constant surveillance.

No list is ever complete!


BillK


From anders at aleph.se  Mon Mar 11 11:08:56 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 11 Mar 2013 11:08:56 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjX9Htpd9kp3gZy9au3Md5gnuY+2CQP-Cb37dxgf7uN=A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <005901ce1e1e$e9173ef0$bb45bcd0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjX9Htpd9kp3gZy9au3Md5gnuY+2CQP-Cb37dxgf7uN=A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <513DBB48.2000704@aleph.se>

On 11/03/2013 10:28, BillK wrote:
> Who predicted the internet is a popular topic in SF. Try this page for 
> an overwhelming history of the many writers who wrote about computers, 
> machine intelligence and the internet. 
> <http://www.sf-encyclopedia.com/entry/computers>

But note the lack of stories that got the explosive power of Internet 
right. Most stories with connected computers assumed they would be like 
a telephone network, not something that changes the way society is run 
globally.

The one mentioned exception is "A Logic Named Joe", which actually does 
get it - except that the protagonist is doing a heroic job of returning 
it to a phone system. Closer to the real thing is Brunner's 1975 "The 
Shockwave Rider" that involves networked hacking and online "delphi 
pools" doing crowdsourced prediction. By the point we reach Vinge's 
"True Names" in 1981 the authors can actually cheat since there are real 
computer networks, and at least Vinge had access.

The point is, people are used to the standard sf world within a 
sub-genre. The reason nobody needs to explain what a hyperdrive is in 
space opera is that it is part of the space opera standard. Before 
Cyberpunk created the standard cyberpunk future there were no other 
standard sf worlds where networked computers were anything but glorified 
mainframes or telephone networks: they were not assumed to have any 
particular impact on culture, economics or politics. Yes, there were 
stories that were exceptions, but they were not part of the standard 
setting. And it is the standard settings that are used as metaphors by 
people when thinking about the future.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University



From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Mar 11 11:38:51 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 11 Mar 2013 11:38:51 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
In-Reply-To: <513DBB48.2000704@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <005901ce1e1e$e9173ef0$bb45bcd0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjX9Htpd9kp3gZy9au3Md5gnuY+2CQP-Cb37dxgf7uN=A@mail.gmail.com>
 <513DBB48.2000704@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armiCVbX+o21t=aD89G2aQ45WX4_d5gDcL=+b2M0b7DL3eQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 11, 2013 at 11:08 AM, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
> But note the lack of stories that got the explosive power of Internet right.
> Most stories with connected computers assumed they would be like a telephone
> network, not something that changes the way society is run globally.
>
> The one mentioned exception is "A Logic Named Joe", which actually does get
> it - except that the protagonist is doing a heroic job of returning it to a
> phone system. Closer to the real thing is Brunner's 1975 "The Shockwave
> Rider" that involves networked hacking and online "delphi pools" doing
> crowdsourced prediction. By the point we reach Vinge's "True Names" in 1981
> the authors can actually cheat since there are real computer networks, and
> at least Vinge had access.


By the mid 1970s ARPANET already existed and included E-mail, online
chat, and mailing lists. (popular with SF writers). So Brunner was
really expanding on what he was already using.


>
> The point is, people are used to the standard sf world within a sub-genre.
> The reason nobody needs to explain what a hyperdrive is in space opera is
> that it is part of the space opera standard. Before Cyberpunk created the
> standard cyberpunk future there were no other standard sf worlds where
> networked computers were anything but glorified mainframes or telephone
> networks: they were not assumed to have any particular impact on culture,
> economics or politics. Yes, there were stories that were exceptions, but
> they were not part of the standard setting. And it is the standard settings
> that are used as metaphors by people when thinking about the future.
>

Hmmmm. I would think that 'prediction' happens before the standard SF
setting develops, otherwise it isn't prediction. Indeed SF as a pulp
fiction genre didn't really get going until the 1930s.
SF tended to just take one idea (or gadget) and run with it, to make a
good story. The writers were not really concerned too much with how
their gadget impacts culture, economics or politics. The main
objective was to keep the story moving along and being exciting. So,
of course you rarely get full-scale future society expositions. It
slows the plot down too much.

BillK


From pemca at comcast.net  Sun Mar 10 21:24:15 2013
From: pemca at comcast.net (Peter E McAlpine)
Date: Sun, 10 Mar 2013 17:24:15 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjj_HS85jsrQEuvXm_g5buid=v8e=vWT1wEY5WHipwZNg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjj_HS85jsrQEuvXm_g5buid=v8e=vWT1wEY5WHipwZNg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <05ab01ce1dd5$9e353610$da9fa230$@comcast.net>

Naw, it's environmentalism crushing humanity in favor of "nature."

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
Sent: Sunday, March 10, 2013 6:07 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?

On Sun, Mar 10, 2013 at 5:23 AM, PJ Manney wrote:
> Please don't extrapolate grand historical trends from BS.  The Walt 
> Disney Company doesn't change Tomorrowland because Disney's leaders 
> since Walt's death don't care about the future.  They can't see beyond 
> the next dividend payment schedule or stock price expectation.  They'd 
> rather do what their marketing departments say costs the least to 
> accomplish to change the rides just enough to both maintain safety and 
> create the slightest bit of novelty to encourage revisits.  This is 
> about a lack of vision and cheapness.  Not future trends.  Future 
> trends (and correcting them when they don't turn out quite as
> expected) costs too much money.
>
>

Agreed that Disney are trying to create what sells and appeals to the
public.

Surely that is an indicator of the direction that public interest is moving
in?
The general public like the retro 1950s science fiction view of the future.

Whereas in the real world, man in space has disappeared since the moon
shots. Transport is still cars, with some tuning of the power systems.
Kitchen equipment hasn't changed in fifty years.
I think the point is that shuffling bits in a computer is far easier than
developing new space technology.

I think there has been a generational change. Today the general public care
more about getting a job, paying medical bills, getting a pension, just day
to day surviving. The vision of future splendour seems to be receding
further every day, so people retreat into nostalgia and entertainment in
virtual reality.

I don't think it is comfort that is driving this. I think it is a feeling
that the world is out of control, has gone crazy and people just want it to
stop. (But maybe that's just me!)  :)


BillK
_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat



From giulio at gmail.com  Mon Mar 11 14:29:11 2013
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Mon, 11 Mar 2013 15:29:11 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
In-Reply-To: <05ab01ce1dd5$9e353610$da9fa230$@comcast.net>
References: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjj_HS85jsrQEuvXm_g5buid=v8e=vWT1wEY5WHipwZNg@mail.gmail.com>
 <05ab01ce1dd5$9e353610$da9fa230$@comcast.net>
Message-ID: <CAKTCJydURcH1ae6QaAEze_sEDx3s56Ex95eq7QMTq5B+C3i4fg@mail.gmail.com>

Anders: "What to do? I think it would be a mistake to try to promote
merely optimism or technology will solve everything memes. Rather I
think we need to promote memes of ambition, willingness to take risk,
willingness to work at *making* the future. People feel much better
about things that are within their sphere of control, or even where
they feel they are doing something."

Right, but optimism has an important role to play within the
make-the-future message. Why should you "do something" if you are
persuaded that it will fail?

On Sun, Mar 10, 2013 at 10:24 PM, Peter E McAlpine <pemca at comcast.net> wrote:
> Naw, it's environmentalism crushing humanity in favor of "nature."
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
> Sent: Sunday, March 10, 2013 6:07 AM
> To: ExI chat list
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
>
> On Sun, Mar 10, 2013 at 5:23 AM, PJ Manney wrote:
>> Please don't extrapolate grand historical trends from BS.  The Walt
>> Disney Company doesn't change Tomorrowland because Disney's leaders
>> since Walt's death don't care about the future.  They can't see beyond
>> the next dividend payment schedule or stock price expectation.  They'd
>> rather do what their marketing departments say costs the least to
>> accomplish to change the rides just enough to both maintain safety and
>> create the slightest bit of novelty to encourage revisits.  This is
>> about a lack of vision and cheapness.  Not future trends.  Future
>> trends (and correcting them when they don't turn out quite as
>> expected) costs too much money.
>>
>>
>
> Agreed that Disney are trying to create what sells and appeals to the
> public.
>
> Surely that is an indicator of the direction that public interest is moving
> in?
> The general public like the retro 1950s science fiction view of the future.
>
> Whereas in the real world, man in space has disappeared since the moon
> shots. Transport is still cars, with some tuning of the power systems.
> Kitchen equipment hasn't changed in fifty years.
> I think the point is that shuffling bits in a computer is far easier than
> developing new space technology.
>
> I think there has been a generational change. Today the general public care
> more about getting a job, paying medical bills, getting a pension, just day
> to day surviving. The vision of future splendour seems to be receding
> further every day, so people retreat into nostalgia and entertainment in
> virtual reality.
>
> I don't think it is comfort that is driving this. I think it is a feeling
> that the world is out of control, has gone crazy and people just want it to
> stop. (But maybe that's just me!)  :)
>
>
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Mon Mar 11 21:14:44 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Mon, 11 Mar 2013 22:14:44 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303111959310.20094@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com> 
 <005901ce1e1e$e9173ef0$bb45bcd0$@rainier66.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303111959310.20094@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303112213340.20094@tau.ceti.pl>

On Mon, 11 Mar 2013, Tomasz Rola wrote:

> 1. Corwainer Smith, "Mother Hitton's Littul Kittons", 1961

It is Cordwainer Smith. Sorry.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Mon Mar 11 21:00:51 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Mon, 11 Mar 2013 22:00:51 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] Is future progress moving to virtual reality?
In-Reply-To: <005901ce1e1e$e9173ef0$bb45bcd0$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armg=GiwoctXuBLqAxS-SNY-a1CHngpcYtUxatsO813j8fw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJrtBE30RJcpMa-Y2cpPWnyHArUqvvdmsJxiGD80C5PyOYEiBw@mail.gmail.com> 
 <005901ce1e1e$e9173ef0$bb45bcd0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303111959310.20094@tau.ceti.pl>

On Sun, 10 Mar 2013, spike wrote:

> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: spike [mailto:spike at rainier66.com] 
> ...
> 
> _______________________________________________
> 
> >...Ja and there is another important thing here.  A huge market today 
> >is in grandparents taking their grandchildren to Disneyland and 
> >Disneyworld, and reliving how it was when they were the age their 
> >grandchildren are now...spike

My own take on BillK's question - they made market research and found out 
majority of visitors had no idea what was being presented to them in this 
Future Something. Pizza is easier to understand and gives same income. 
Possibly bigger, because now the mob will not be scared away by invading 
flying cars and strange looking perverts with glass jars on their heads.

> There is another consideration regarding retro-futurism.  Consider the 
> biggest or most important developments we envisioned 40 years ago 
> regarding how life would be 40 years in the future.  Consider what we 
> missed as well as what we anticipated.  In any group brainstorming this 
> question, someone will envision flying cars and Star Trek transporters.  
> Clearly we wouldn't need both, and just as clearly, the ST transporter 
> is way more advanced.  So let us consider those things.  Assume miracle 
> engineering and manufacturing, so that any prole can afford a flying 
> car.  Why would that be so great?  It would reduce traffic, the time to 
> get to the office, but that would reduce our motivation to reduce 
> travel.

Ok. It would also be great because every crash higher than 20m above the 
ground would have been fatal to everybody involved. Thus we would make 
great circle, from vehicles 60 years ago, in which safety belts and other 
measures were not installed so as to not give buyers impression that this 
particular car was unsafe. Back to such vehicles. A rather exotic way to 
treat overpopulation, but if we could pass a law making aerial bus travel 
obligatory... Very effective. And source of impressive fireworks at night.

> OK consider the ST transporter then.  Travel becomes free and completely 
> unlimited.  COOL!  Except that with travel delays, we say goodbye to all 
> privacy and most security.  Kirk and the lads could beam into anywhere 
> and back out.  So any radical Presbyterian could beam into the bedroom 
> of any teenage couple, slay both unmarried infidels with a hearty Calvin 
> Akbar, beam back out, and we would never know who did that.  If we had 
> sufficient security systems to identify the perp, goodbye privacy.  In 
> place of that, we get the internet, which does cost us privacy to some 
> extent, but at least it is far more secure.

Spike, Spike. Think like a hunter. Set elephant booby-toothed traps 
everywhere in your house. Place an invitation for an orgy in local 
newspaper, go for vacation. When you come back, ten, twenty, maybe hundred 
less radical Presbyterians. No need for security, actually. Just a lot of 
plastic foil, maybe a big fridge. Or a friendly pig farm. Or unfriendly 
one - you can use transporter, too. Think, man.

WRT internet, a nice quotation from Lem:

"I hadn't known there were so many idiots in the world until I started 
using the Internet."

[ http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Stanis??aw_Lem ]

So I am not so sure I would trade ability to easily change a world for a 
little better and instead have the network of cretinos tweeting and facing 
over and over. Well, OTOH, now they are busy. If I never get mentioned on 
frakbook, I am remarkably free to perform and think whatever I want. And I 
can even freely post here, hehe.

> What are some of the other future visions?  Many, perhaps most of them 
> had to do with advanced forms of warfare.  Now our most advanced forms 
> of warfare are computer viruses.  Well, OK then, good deal.

Uhum, disagree. You may want to rethink this statement, please.

1. Whoever places bigger cousin of this on the Moon, will have great 
future and all luxuries a rocket can deliver (with possible practical 
jokes about delivery by rocket):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shiva_Star

2. Excellent scalability! Pick your size, from hand grenade to city 
leveller! Call 0-800-MY-THERMO and our consultant will help you to make 
the best buy. You have a neighbor? We can help you! Don't like crowd in 
metro? We can help you!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermobaric_weapon

3. This is just a beginning. Right now, to make a Stux requires quite some 
funds - I mean, really, you have to buy know-how about automation and you 
have to test it on real hardware before letting it go. This costs. Later 
on, imagine how script kiddies can download, say, tenXuts, and release it 
on infrastructure of neighbor city... because they don't like some bullies 
living there. Or maybe they will be more selective, delivering urine into 
city major's tap water.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet

And the whole internet is a collection of possibly backdoorable machines.

> Where in 50 year old futurist literature do we find anything analogous 
> to the modern internet?  I never saw it.

I have yet to read the list posted by BillK, but out of my head, here 
goes:

1. Corwainer Smith, "Mother Hitton's Littul Kittons", 1961

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mother_Hitton's_Littul_Kittons

The protagonist tries to search electronic (maybe electronic) library, 
triggers an alarm set on a search term. From this moment, his arse is no 
longer his, even thou he realises it much later.

2. Henry Kuttner, "The Fairy Chessmen", 1951

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomorrow_and_Tomorrow_%26_The_Fairy_Chessmen

One of the protagonists uses "television network" to read files of 
documents, prepared by some other people on his demand.

> Super advanced robotics?  We are gradually getting there.  Still haven't 
> solved the problem of what to do with all the jobless humans.

Yeah. Slavery, where are you when we need you?
 
> Star Trek communicators?  We pretty much have that one: we can talk to 
> anyone anywhere on the globe in real time, using voice if that is really 
> necessary.  Skype makes it free.  OK, good deal.

Oh Spike. I never allowed skype on my computers. I wouldn't p... on skype 
even if it burned and screamed like hell. In particular, I wound never 
p... on a hardware turned on, because this would electrocut my p-p.

In Star Trek, even though it was perfectly naive, there was assumption 
about gentleman's agreement and no invasion of privacy, unless done by bad 
guys for wrong reasons or by good guys for right reasons. Nowadays, 
gentlemen died off and good guys are doing all kind of stuff for 
questionable reasons (which makes their goodness questionable, I guess). I 
think I would rather become Klingon.

And besides, there is something you will never get now, with NASA's budget 
cuts:

- Orion slave girls, who can enslave any warm man in the known Universe

- Vulcan intellect in a body of commander T'Pol

- passion and compassion in a body of commander Uhura

Are you crying now, Spike? C'mon, admit it. There is nothing wrong if you 
are crying for good reason. I can hear you crying, so don't deny it.

> We still have disease, haven't made all that much progress on many of 
> them, damn.  We still have addiction, all the classic human foible 
> stuff, but it is not at all clear we really want to give up all our 
> favorite vices.

Sure, we will have all this as long as there is a profit to be made. I 
don't expect the future to be better than today or yesterday in this 
aspect.

Certainly, humans can be trained to be as good and self improving as they 
are now stupid and crap loving. But what profit would it give to big 
players?

> Overall, I would give humanity a good solid B, possibly a B+ on how the 
> future has turned out in my adult lifetime.

I wouldn't give it even D. Two (three?) hundred thousand years on the 
planet, and, what, no lunar base and incoming shortages of all kind? The 
Lord's Resistance Army is kidnapping children, brainwashes them to turn 
into soldiers and it cannot be pacified. Ridiculous. Pitiful. We almost 
deserve to join dinos. Don't believe my word for it, stand on the street 
and ask mobsters what Betelgeuse is. The most enlightened would tell you 
it was a film with Geena Davis.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **

From max at maxmore.com  Tue Mar 12 17:34:50 2013
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Tue, 12 Mar 2013 10:34:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The Transhumanist Reader -- available NOW in Kindle format
Message-ID: <CAJX-7wVxodOpWR1Chbb1m7kePh5imBtSS8P5tZ+zPg_jnRSeQg@mail.gmail.com>

The Transhumanist Reader will be published on paper on April 29, but the
electronic version is out NOW. It's available on Kindle from Amazon:

http://www.amazon.com/The-Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-ebook/dp/B00BQZK6MU/ref=tmm_kin_title_0

http://www.amazon.com/The-Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-ebook/dp/B00BQZK6MU%3FSubscriptionId%3D14BJ8ZEX3WNZS76SDCG2%26tag%3Dwwwwileycom-20%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3DB00BQZK6MU

Also from iTunes, but apparently not yet on Google Play.

We would greatly appreciate early, positive reviews to get the book off to a
good start.

The contents are listed here:

http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1118555961,descCd-tableOfContents.html

Thanks!

--Max

-- 
Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
7895 E. Acoma Dr # 110
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
480/905-1906 ext 113
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From giulio at gmail.com  Tue Mar 12 18:19:29 2013
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Tue, 12 Mar 2013 19:19:29 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The Transhumanist Reader -- available NOW in Kindle format
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wVxodOpWR1Chbb1m7kePh5imBtSS8P5tZ+zPg_jnRSeQg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJX-7wVxodOpWR1Chbb1m7kePh5imBtSS8P5tZ+zPg_jnRSeQg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAKTCJyeWS--WPbxMptqqZinsWV1818tWMdWcmDMpxVYv1tYmng@mail.gmail.com>

Wow great!

On Tue, Mar 12, 2013 at 6:34 PM, Max More <max at maxmore.com> wrote:

> The Transhumanist Reader will be published on paper on April 29, but the
> electronic version is out NOW. It's available on Kindle from Amazon:
>
>
> http://www.amazon.com/The-Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-ebook/dp/B00BQZK6MU/ref=tmm_kin_title_0
>
>
> http://www.amazon.com/The-Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-ebook/dp/B00BQZK6MU%3FSubscriptionId%3D14BJ8ZEX3WNZS76SDCG2%26tag%3Dwwwwileycom-20%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3DB00BQZK6MU
>
> Also from iTunes, but apparently not yet on Google Play.
>
> We would greatly appreciate early, positive reviews to get the book off
> to a good start.
>
> The contents are listed here:
>
>
> http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1118555961,descCd-tableOfContents.html
>
> Thanks!
>
> --Max
>
> --
> Max More, PhD
> Strategic Philosopher
> Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
> President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
> 7895 E. Acoma Dr # 110
> Scottsdale, AZ 85260
> 480/905-1906 ext 113
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Wed Mar 13 00:19:56 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan)
Date: Tue, 12 Mar 2013 17:19:56 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] The Transhumanist Reader -- available NOW in Kindle format
In-Reply-To: <CAKTCJyeWS--WPbxMptqqZinsWV1818tWMdWcmDMpxVYv1tYmng@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJX-7wVxodOpWR1Chbb1m7kePh5imBtSS8P5tZ+zPg_jnRSeQg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJyeWS--WPbxMptqqZinsWV1818tWMdWcmDMpxVYv1tYmng@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <1363133996.84540.YahooMailNeo@web126201.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>

Yes, fantastic news! I'll pass it along.

By the way, a bit of self-promotion: I've recently published a science fiction short story for Kindle too. It's not terribly transhumanist, but maybe some might find it interesting. See:

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the US

http://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the UK


And I know about "B00BS3T0RM." That's just the luck of the draw and has nothing to do with the content -- though it suggests the title for my next foray into writing fiction. :)

Regards,

Dan

From: Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com>
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> 
Sent: Tuesday, March 12, 2013 2:19 PM
Subject: Re: [ExI] The Transhumanist Reader -- available NOW in Kindle format
 

Wow great!
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Mar 13 20:56:08 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 13 Mar 2013 16:56:08 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Rand Paul Filibuster
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwYM-=2ntsOw6Q8njtqrkuJQ-PZuC5OYjtf6_1ukZ6RVYA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1362753916.76972.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
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Message-ID: <CAAc1gFjm+DAthdY+0o2y-2m7P_e4Pck1t+eDP0UBXMTLDPY6SA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 5:14 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:

Domestic crime is not a military concern. The Department of
> Homeland Security along with the Patriot Act of course muddies these
> waters considerably.

### Some long-term considerations obtain:

1) Drones are rapidly getting cheaper
2) Drones are getting more and more effective and will soon be capable
of very precise application of both lethal and non-lethal coercive
influence against human targets both indoors and outdoors
3) There is a growing divide within the US society between the working
elites and the ever less useful proles

These three trends could in the long term (i.e. 20 - 30 years, right
up to the singularity) mean that increasingly narrow elites would no
longer have to rely primarily on social engineering techniques
(propaganda) to maintain docility of an increasingly large part of the
society to maintain control.  Manpower will no longer be needed to
efficiently coerce opponents, therefore consent would need to be
obtained only from a diminishing number of players.

I doubt that the precedents we are discussing are going to have a
negative impact on my life. The UFAI will emerge long before the decay
of the American society progresses far enough to make a drone civil
war possible. Still, a certain nagging feeling of unease remains.

"Look up!" could soon acquire a more sinister meaning.

Rafal


From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Thu Mar 14 18:03:36 2013
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Thu, 14 Mar 2013 19:03:36 +0100
Subject: [ExI] food again,
	was: RE: Re Atten: For any extropy libertarians
In-Reply-To: <002101ce1c2d$7963e920$6c2bbb60$@rainier66.com>
References: <002101ce1c2d$7963e920$6c2bbb60$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a4F4oHBdm0GN0YEWEodD3FuvpenB4c-p2h7-B_ABFVcQA@mail.gmail.com>

On 8 March 2013 19:48, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

> Stefano, in general the conditions you mention assume a home.  There are
> some items in a grocery which are ready to devour with no cooking utensils,
> but these may not be competitive in a calories per dollar contest against
> McDs.
>

Yes, you are right.

Even though in principle a basic tenet of a paleo lifestyle is that you
should be wary of anything which be not edible unless cooked or otherwise
processed.

McDonald?s has evolved some excellent comfort food, such as those soft warm
> fish sandwiches, mmmmmm, and those long greasy salty fries, mmmmm so good,
> number 11 on the value meal menu, 6 dollars and 32 cents gets you these and
> a tall icy soda with free refills, such a deal is this.
>

Nutritionally speaking, however, you should discard the bum, the sauces
and  the fries, which involves getting three or four serving of the menu to
get the same number of calories.

But you could partially compensate with the money you can save by getting
free water instead of sugar-rich sodas... :-)

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Thu Mar 14 18:29:04 2013
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Thu, 14 Mar 2013 19:29:04 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Fermi's Paradoxical Politburo
In-Reply-To: <1362841748.64646.YahooMailNeo@web160501.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
References: <CAPiwVB6PV-91brFR+D7yx4=vKpAQ-2N8v82eFoDUwCi4iWv5dg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armgM2E5yBCZFLcJU5Fi4NmREnKW-QRGaiddFyQDruOa4sQ@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAPoR7a6UhV0tfaNaLS8UEqwDoip2xWJhr+RhJ667RHVQ4_MUwg@mail.gmail.com>

On 9 March 2013 16:09, The Avantguardian <avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com>wrote:

> Try this outlandish hypothesis on for size: intelligent civiizations
> stagnate when technological advancement becomes illegal.
>

This is a distinct possibility for our species, especially if its
populations are not allowed to go on competing amongst them.

As to the paradox in general, I am inclined to adopt a variant of Wolfram's
position, namely:
- life or intelligence are nothing special, really, the second in
particolar being largely pervasive and ubiquitous, and being nothing else
but computation;
- our view thereof remains however way too anthropomorphic, and given the
spaceset of evolutionary and computational paths in comparison with the
spaceset of systems in our event horizon, we are indeed unlikely to get in
touch with something we would recognise as a "civilisation" anytime soon.

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Thu Mar 14 21:13:12 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan)
Date: Thu, 14 Mar 2013 14:13:12 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Fermi's Paradoxical Politburo
References: <CAPiwVB6PV-91brFR+D7yx4=vKpAQ-2N8v82eFoDUwCi4iWv5dg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armgM2E5yBCZFLcJU5Fi4NmREnKW-QRGaiddFyQDruOa4sQ@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAPoR7a6UhV0tfaNaLS8UEqwDoip2xWJhr+RhJ667RHVQ4_MUwg@mail.gmail.com> 
Message-ID: <1363295592.23409.YahooMailNeo@web126203.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>

On Thursday, March 14, 2013 2:29 PM ?Stefano Vaj <stefano.vaj at gmail.com> wrote:
> On 9 March 2013 16:09, The Avantguardian <avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com> wrote:
>> Try this outlandish hypothesis on for size: intelligent civiizations stagnate
>> when technological advancement becomes illegal.
>
> This is a distinct possibility for our species, especially if its populations
> are not allowed to go on competing amongst them.

I hear it might be, though I think if you take the long view the species seems to have gone through several episodes of more or less self-imposed stagnation and bounced back. The end of the Bronze Age decline, e.g., appears to be one of the worst is the last four thousand years, yet humans didn't stay at a Bronze Age level of development. Even more organized, enforced periods of stagnation -- think of Ming Dynasty China or Shogunate Japan (in many respects) -- seem to not be permanent ends. My fear would be, though, that stagnation and decline will kill us (those of us living now) though maybe some descendants would spark the whole social, cultural, and techno progress off again, but centuries after we're dust.

> As to the paradox in general, I am inclined to adopt a variant of Wolfram's
> position, namely:
> - life or intelligence are nothing special, really, the second in particolar
> being largely pervasive and ubiquitous, and being nothing else but computation;
> - our view thereof remains however way too anthropomorphic, and given the
> spaceset of evolutionary and computational paths in comparison with the spaceset
> of systems in our event horizon, we are indeed unlikely to get in touch with
> something we would recognise as a "civilisation" anytime soon.

I opt more for the latter because unless there's a really, really low change of anything avoiding the filter, it would seem even one technological civilization would be noticed if it just went the "space opera" route of moving out into space. I hardly find it believeable, too, especially given the analogy with survivalists today -- if that isn't just a provincial human thing (and it doesn't seem to be as bacteria simply spread and don't all follow the same path -- save under lab conditions), some folkss would head off world before a Singularity and spread around -- maybe the space tech equivalent of the Amish. But look at the Amish! Are there more or less of them now than a hundred years ago?

Regards,

Dan
?Shameless plug for my science fiction short story "Residue": now on Amazon at:
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the US
http://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the UK
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Mar 15 17:51:08 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Fri, 15 Mar 2013 13:51:08 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Fermi's Paradoxical Politburo
In-Reply-To: <1363295592.23409.YahooMailNeo@web126203.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>
References: <CAPiwVB6PV-91brFR+D7yx4=vKpAQ-2N8v82eFoDUwCi4iWv5dg@mail.gmail.com>
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 <004d01ce0f81$bdca4270$395ec750$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <CAAc1gFiFkXyvsuFsZM598qdSa5S0zuAXiNkWaLwpd6eqSr+8Aw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 14, 2013 at 5:13 PM, Dan <dan_ust at yahoo.com> wrote:

 But look at the Amish! Are there more or less of
> them now than a hundred years ago?

### Massively more. Population in 1920 about 5,000, population today
about 250,000.

Rafal


From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Mar 15 18:23:25 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 15 Mar 2013 19:23:25 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Fermi's Paradoxical Politburo
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFiFkXyvsuFsZM598qdSa5S0zuAXiNkWaLwpd6eqSr+8Aw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armib8jxFx9XsbcrRDeeyB6bTjAdadySUt1L5yeECVSe-+A@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <20130315182325.GD6172@leitl.org>

On Fri, Mar 15, 2013 at 01:51:08PM -0400, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> On Thu, Mar 14, 2013 at 5:13 PM, Dan <dan_ust at yahoo.com> wrote:
> 
>  But look at the Amish! Are there more or less of
> > them now than a hundred years ago?
> 
> ### Massively more. Population in 1920 about 5,000, population today
> about 250,000.

Amish show some selective adoption of technology, and of course
not everybody returns back into the fold after rumpschpringe,
though most do.

No population of agents can be uniform, and no policy can
be 100% enforced. As such sustained containment is arbitrarily
improbable, especially across population of populations with
no common point of origin, across deep time.


From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Mar 15 19:03:23 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 15 Mar 2013 19:03:23 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Fermi's Paradoxical Politburo
In-Reply-To: <20130315182325.GD6172@leitl.org>
References: <CAL_armib8jxFx9XsbcrRDeeyB6bTjAdadySUt1L5yeECVSe-+A@mail.gmail.com>
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 <5123A089.8030604@aleph.se>
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 <1361360727.93284.YahooMailNeo@web160502.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
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 <CAAc1gFiFkXyvsuFsZM598qdSa5S0zuAXiNkWaLwpd6eqSr+8Aw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130315182325.GD6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAL_armi7xkmKONKvfVs6_tZKHfwJPwtXhxBjvkfOZwe_V4686g@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 15, 2013 at 6:23 PM, Eugen Leitl  wrote:
> Amish show some selective adoption of technology, and of course
> not everybody returns back into the fold after rumpschpringe,
> though most do.
>
> No population of agents can be uniform, and no policy can
> be 100% enforced. As such sustained containment is arbitrarily
> improbable, especially across population of populations with
> no common point of origin, across deep time.
>

The laws of physics are 100% enforced.

Populations reach size limits where various adventures just become too
expensive for the group to fund. Even feeding the population in some
cases. Interstellar travel is one of the most expensive projects and
requires very large group support.

The way round that objection is to claim that after the Singularity
nano-Santa will provide unlimited resources to all sizes of
populations. But the implications........   Everyone from Hells Angels
to Al-Qaeda has unlimited resources! The Singularity will be a big
upheaval, perhaps the destruction of humanity if that route is
followed.

Survival may only be possible by forming some kind of hive-mind and
ruthlessly incorporating outsiders.
Resistance is futile!  ;)


BillK


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Sat Mar 16 00:52:42 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Sat, 16 Mar 2013 01:52:42 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] Fermi's Paradoxical Politburo
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armi7xkmKONKvfVs6_tZKHfwJPwtXhxBjvkfOZwe_V4686g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armib8jxFx9XsbcrRDeeyB6bTjAdadySUt1L5yeECVSe-+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <002d01ce0eb2$70dad440$52907cc0$@att.net> <5123A089.8030604@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv3MO6nSgKPL0K6pSO6dAP+pHOg8=n0Ahkg13MyDUL3Fyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <1361360727.93284.YahooMailNeo@web160502.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <004d01ce0f81$bdca4270$395ec750$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303152337560.22115@tau.ceti.pl>

On Fri, 15 Mar 2013, BillK wrote:

> On Fri, Mar 15, 2013 at 6:23 PM, Eugen Leitl  wrote:
> > Amish show some selective adoption of technology, and of course
> > not everybody returns back into the fold after rumpschpringe,
> > though most do.
> >
> > No population of agents can be uniform, and no policy can
> > be 100% enforced. As such sustained containment is arbitrarily
> > improbable, especially across population of populations with
> > no common point of origin, across deep time.
> >
> 
> The laws of physics are 100% enforced.

As usual, some people think they can ignore physics. Some people thought. 
Some people will think. In other words, physics is not going to limit us, 
until we crash into the wall at full speed.

> Populations reach size limits where various adventures just become too
> expensive for the group to fund. Even feeding the population in some
> cases. Interstellar travel is one of the most expensive projects and
> requires very large group support.

This is even more true in times when all kind of spending is done, just 
not necessarily the right one.

> The way round that objection is to claim that after the Singularity
> nano-Santa will provide unlimited resources to all sizes of
> populations. But the implications........   Everyone from Hells Angels
> to Al-Qaeda has unlimited resources! The Singularity will be a big
> upheaval, perhaps the destruction of humanity if that route is
> followed.

So? The majority is too dumb to resist having every whimsical wish 
fulfilled. First, everybody will have Jaguar or Ferrari. Then, it's 
nowhere to drive them at full speed. After some time, everybody is bored, 
but due to lack of imagination (which is cloned thanks to tv/multimedia), 
their new car will be some cross of SUV and whoremaster's pink cadillac 
with tiger skins inside and chandeliers on the mask.

There is already plenty of bonobo/lemmings among humans, so they will now 
become even happier. And I can bet the most dangerous feat (to them rather 
than to someone else) will be seeking the most potent thrill (now it is 
jumping from a brigde on a long rubber). As of Dadaists, the "plenty" will 
actually destroy (or severely limit) their recruiting base, I believe. And 
I don't suspect them to be quick enough thinkers to use new abilities 
before barriers to this will be set up (like surveillance, "mind reading", 
advanced profiling etc). Hells Angels, likewise, I don't think they are 
examples of intellectual giants - maybe some of them, but not everyone. 
And since they choose to become Angels rather than banksters, I would say, 
not a danger really. Not as big as some who get bailed out. Good for them, 
dumb people forget quickly.

We have computers since 60+ years, and guess what, Dadaists are not too 
good in using them for their goals, or if they are, nobody told me. But I 
have heard of narcobarons using submarines and advanced data processing 
(back when this term was not known by marketing guys), however, nobody 
seems to be thrilled of them, so I guess they must be kind of friends.

> 
> Survival may only be possible by forming some kind of hive-mind and
> ruthlessly incorporating outsiders.

Oh really. I am fascinated. First eliminate alternative ways of thinking 
(done). Then make people too dumb to remember there were alternatives 
(done). And then... yo, people, stand in the row and upload, you too dumb 
to run free. Actually, I agree, kind of. Of course MS and its acolites 
will be given a mission of maintaining the hardware? And they will need a 
government, so... yeah, politicians will supervise the MS. 

How not amazing at all.

In your free time, you may want to read "The stars my destination" by 
Alfred Bester.

> Resistance is futile!  ;)

BillK, do you really want to know what I think? Would you be happy to hear 
from me how humans are retarded - for the rest of eternity? Judging from 
(non)reaction to my emails, majority is not very happy with it, now if you 
take me to this la-la-land with you (without my consent), you will 
actually resign from having "next"/"ignore sender" button. I will do my 
best to be a worst fraking uploaded hive mind. A nightmare should not be 
limited to just one person, this wouldn't have been just.

Some people might also choose to resist the upload or whatever alternative 
will be forced upon them, if not for a win then for mere joy of good 
sporting game. Resistance may be futile, but if this is the only fun and 
right thing to do... For me, becoming part of hive is equivalent to mental 
castration or worse. So I guess resistance would not be such a bad choice. 
I will cease to exist, one way or another - so let's make some fireworks 
and grill. And more fireworks. And million years from now, a hive will 
freeze with terror upon recalling my name. ;)

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Sat Mar 16 04:16:00 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan)
Date: Fri, 15 Mar 2013 21:16:00 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Fermi's Paradoxical Politburo
In-Reply-To: <20130315182325.GD6172@leitl.org>
References: <CAL_armib8jxFx9XsbcrRDeeyB6bTjAdadySUt1L5yeECVSe-+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <002d01ce0eb2$70dad440$52907cc0$@att.net> <5123A089.8030604@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv3MO6nSgKPL0K6pSO6dAP+pHOg8=n0Ahkg13MyDUL3Fyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <1361360727.93284.YahooMailNeo@web160502.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <004d01ce0f81$bdca4270$395ec750$@rainier66.com>
 <1362841748.64646.YahooMailNeo@web160501.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
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Message-ID: <1363407360.3576.YahooMailNeo@web126206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>

On Friday, March 15, 2013 2:23 PM Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>> On Fri, Mar 15, 2013 at 01:51:08PM -0400, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>>> On Thu, Mar 14, 2013 at 5:13 PM, Dan <dan_ust at yahoo.com> wrote:
>>>?
>>> ?But look at the Amish! Are there more or less of
>>> them now than a hundred years ago?
>>?
>> ### Massively more. Population in 1920 about 5,000, population
>> today about 250,000.
>
> Amish show some selective adoption of technology,

True, but I see no reason why ETs might be similarly selective. You know, some sect might take space tech, but stop at having AI or nanotech. The issue here, for me, is less that most wouldn't -- even as most of humanity isn't Amish or Luddite -- but that only a few of them would likely overrun the galaxy in short order.

> and of course not everybody returns back into the fold after
> rumpschpringe, though most do.

I've heard 90% return, but this was in a documentary -- not a vetted source. I think the most here is much more than 51%, so maybe 90% is correct. If there's anything to what I'm saying, one can imagine ETs visiting the homeworld or the home dyson to soak in the new tech for a while with many returning to the frontier. At least, it might make a good story. :)

> No population of agents can be uniform, and no policy
> can be 100% enforced. As such sustained containment is
> arbitrarily improbable, especially across population of
> populations with no common point of origin, across deep
> time.

Exactly! The best examples we have on Earth are totalitarian states like the Soviet Union under Stalin. Even they were rather shortlived (though there seems no principled reason why they might not last longer) and there were people getting around the controls or escaping all together. We'd have to postulate that every last civilization develops total states to such a degree that there's no escape or rule-breakers or that so many have that it might as well be all.

Dan
?Shameless plug for my science fiction short story "Residue." Now on Amazon at:
http://www.amazon.fr/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the France
http://www.amazon.de/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the Germany
http://www.amazon.it/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the Italy
http://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the UK
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the US
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From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Sat Mar 16 04:27:13 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan)
Date: Fri, 15 Mar 2013 21:27:13 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Fermi's Paradoxical Politburo
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armi7xkmKONKvfVs6_tZKHfwJPwtXhxBjvkfOZwe_V4686g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armib8jxFx9XsbcrRDeeyB6bTjAdadySUt1L5yeECVSe-+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <002d01ce0eb2$70dad440$52907cc0$@att.net> <5123A089.8030604@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv3MO6nSgKPL0K6pSO6dAP+pHOg8=n0Ahkg13MyDUL3Fyg@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAAc1gFiFkXyvsuFsZM598qdSa5S0zuAXiNkWaLwpd6eqSr+8Aw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130315182325.GD6172@leitl.org>
 <CAL_armi7xkmKONKvfVs6_tZKHfwJPwtXhxBjvkfOZwe_V4686g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <1363408033.56478.YahooMailNeo@web126202.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>

On Friday, March 15, 2013 3:03 PM BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Fri, Mar 15, 2013 at 6:23 PM, Eugen Leitl ?wrote:
>> Amish show some selective adoption of technology, and of course
>> not everybody returns back into the fold after rumpschpringe,
>> though most do.
>>
>> No population of agents can be uniform, and no policy can
>> be 100% enforced. As such sustained containment is arbitrarily
>> improbable, especially across population of populations with
>> no common point of origin, across deep time.
>
> The laws of physics are 100% enforced.
>?
> Populations reach size limits where various adventures just
> become too expensive for the group to fund. Even feeding the
> population in some cases. Interstellar travel is one of the most
> expensive projects and requires very large group support.

It seems you're presuming that all of society has to fund and support such efforts. Why? Why might not, in human or non-human societies, some groups fund them separate from the rest? The Amish model on Earth now, too, seems to be that the wider society does what it does -- tech advances, global economy, etc. -- but the Amish live separately. Yes, they do interact, but my guess is, for the most part, they're decoupled. Why would it not be similar with ET civilizations?

And why not totally separate societies? Imagine, say, the Singularity doesn't hit for a few more decades. It seems humans are now starting to ramp up human space presence. Let's say that starts to take off with, before the Singularity happens, many communities living off world and, given the popular model for things like Mars settlement, these communities are fairly self-sufficient. If they are able and decide to not join in the fun on Earth, why might they not continue their outward expansion?

> The way round that objection is to claim that after the
> Singularity nano-Santa will provide unlimited resources to
> all sizes of populations. But the implications........?
> Everyone from Hells Angels to Al-Qaeda has unlimited resources!
> The Singularity will be a big upheaval, perhaps the destruction
> of humanity if that route is followed.

This was kind of covered on another list with discussions of hyperaggression. It's all the more reason to get some communities off world -- maybe to practice superstealth to avoid such groups or to avoid nation states similarly armed and willing to suppress dissent and difference of any sort. (The superstealth explanation has been offered as a solution to the Fermi Paradox too: ET societies are out there, but they keep to themselves and remain hidden to avoid any hyperaggressive groups. Someone likened this to an explanation why, when you're hiking in the woods, you rarely see other animals: they're hiding from predators or they are predators making sure their prey doesn't know where they are.)

> Survival may only be possible by forming some kind of hive-mind
> and ruthlessly incorporating outsiders.?
> Resistance is futile! ?;)

Or to try to remain hidden. I'm not saying I buy all this. The simpler explanation for lack of ET after all this time might be there simply are none. Hey, what's the large cigar-shaped object over me now?!

Dan
?Shameless plug for my science fiction short story "Residue": now on Amazon at:
http://www.amazon.fr/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the France
http://www.amazon.de/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the Germany
http://www.amazon.it/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the Italy
http://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the UK
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the US
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Sun Mar 17 18:08:53 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Sun, 17 Mar 2013 10:08:53 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Old Programming Languages
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB6__THbQK5nnGqaDu9uCLqJCYp96oHxb7e8qNW0zJQ4uw@mail.gmail.com>

I happen to post on a closed list that is full of historical figures
from the dawn of the computer era.  There has been recent discussion
about "vintage" computer languages.  Though it will probably be
gibberish to the younger members of this list, here is my
contribution:


By local standards, I am a lightweight in the programming business and
the U of Arizona where I went to school was a relative backwater.  In
1960, they had an IBM 650.  For a first-year class we wrote a simple
program in a course called "numerical analysis" and (by lot) one class
member's program (in SOAPX* as I recall) was run.  Dropped out for a
few years to work for Heinrichs Geoexploration Co., mostly running
resistivity and induced- polarization surveys.

When I went back to school, a two-unit FORTAN course had been added as
a requirement for EE's.  Later learned assembly (for embedded systems)
and C/C++ for debugging the garbage collector for Xanadu on my own,
but FORTRAN was the only actual programming course I had.  I was
hooked and looked for something to do beyond the course work.

The prototype cases we used for interpreting plotted field geophysics
data were hard to calculate by hand and only a few of them had been
done.  The solutions were Bessel functions of moderate complexity
approximated by infinite series.  Some of the cases converged very
slowly, making accuracy of the solutions a big problem.  I got one of
my old math professors to help place error bounds as a function of the
convergence of terms.

There were 8 or 9 cases that merged into each other when an electrode
was right on a boundary between materials of different resistivity.
That provided some degree of assurance (when the output matched) that
we had the math and programming correct.

The work was started on an IBM 7090 class machine and finished on a
CDC 6400.  The company burned through several thousand dollars worth
of computer time, but we sold enough copies of _Theoretical Induced
Polarization and Resistivity Response for the Dual Frequency System
Collinear Dipole-dipole Array_: Volume 1 & 2 Heinrichs Geoexploration
Co. by Chris S Ludwig, H Keith Henson to make a profit.  I think I
permanently stretched one arm from carrying around a 3/4 full box of
cards.

Keith

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assembly_language#Historical_perspective


From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Sun Mar 17 18:51:22 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Sun, 17 Mar 2013 10:51:22 -0800
Subject: [ExI] McD was food again
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB7ymi7vFbMuTgtpsk1se3NDZLHiQ8jHq1euYtNB1G_x3g@mail.gmail.com>

It's not always obvious from the menu, but McD has a "value meal" for
$3.45 (in some parts of California).  Small spicy chicken sandwich,
small fries, small but refillable drink.  I get these no more than
once a week.  Sigh.  And to think there was a time when I ate 4500
calories a day and didn't gain a bit of weight.

Keith


From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Mar 17 19:54:05 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sun, 17 Mar 2013 12:54:05 -0700
Subject: [ExI] McD was food again
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB7ymi7vFbMuTgtpsk1se3NDZLHiQ8jHq1euYtNB1G_x3g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB7ymi7vFbMuTgtpsk1se3NDZLHiQ8jHq1euYtNB1G_x3g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <004501ce2349$2e9c8f00$8bd5ad00$@rainier66.com>



>... On Behalf Of Keith Henson
Subject: [ExI] McD was food again

It's not always obvious from the menu, but McD has a "value meal" for
$3.45 (in some parts of California).  Small spicy chicken sandwich, small
fries, small but refillable drink.  I get these no more than once a week.
Sigh.  And to think there was a time when I ate 4500 calories a day and
didn't gain a bit of weight.

Keith
_______________________________________________

Ja.  McDonald's gets a bum rap.  Their value meals are very reasonably
priced and generally have a reasonable calorie count.  Agreed the stuff
isn't exactly health food, but if you keep it in moderation, I don't see why
they should be the poster child for bad nutrition.  If their high-fat food
is so good, it causes us to  eat too much of it, well that isn't the
restaurant's fault.  Our modern highly evolved food environment demands
iron-fisted self-discipline on the part of the individual, there's no sugar
coating it.  As time goes on and food evolves even further, we need still
more self-discipline.  Perhaps someone will develop a pill that does that
for us.  In the meantime, iron fisted self-discipline, me lads.

spike





From msd001 at gmail.com  Sun Mar 17 20:32:01 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Sun, 17 Mar 2013 16:32:01 -0400
Subject: [ExI] McD was food again
In-Reply-To: <004501ce2349$2e9c8f00$8bd5ad00$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAPiwVB7ymi7vFbMuTgtpsk1se3NDZLHiQ8jHq1euYtNB1G_x3g@mail.gmail.com>
 <004501ce2349$2e9c8f00$8bd5ad00$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbLH7TzDCuQiKYadEQvXr0xLk++2JJGK3P=U4y-B65Acsw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Mar 17, 2013 at 3:54 PM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
> restaurant's fault.  Our modern highly evolved food environment demands
> iron-fisted self-discipline on the part of the individual, there's no sugar
> coating it.  As time goes on and food evolves even further, we need still

no need to sugar coat it; there's enough HFCS in the bread, in the
fries, in the meat, and in the drink.  :)

Did you see this?  http://robrhinehart.com/?p=298

The detractor comments are of the type, "Oh who knows what value there
is in eating actual food... this isn't 'natural' so therefor it's
wrong."  If a self-aware DIY/experimenter learns of a missing
ingredient (like iron for hemoglobin) then he'll adjust his program.
He claims to continue social eating which likely covers any deficiency
his chemical concoction may have.  I guess the main concern is
long-term health impact for cumulative effects of drinking chemicals
for nutrition, otherwise he's a poster-child for quantified self.
thoughts?


From anders at aleph.se  Mon Mar 18 01:52:14 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 01:52:14 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Old Programming Languages
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB6__THbQK5nnGqaDu9uCLqJCYp96oHxb7e8qNW0zJQ4uw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB6__THbQK5nnGqaDu9uCLqJCYp96oHxb7e8qNW0zJQ4uw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5146734E.6060006@aleph.se>

I'm of course a total whipper-snapper when it comes to programming, 
having grown up with BASIC like any child of the 70-80s. But I did learn 
how to program early 1950s machine code.

The reason was my teacher, Thorbj?rn Alfredsson, who had been a graduate 
student in the BESK project, Sweden's second computer: 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BESK
He had the distinction of being probably the only person to have his 
foot crushed by a falling byte - he had extended the drawer in the rack 
of Williams-tubes too far and dropped it on his foot.

As an exercise in high-school he had us write programs in its 
instruction set. Not too different from modern machine code, although 
the initial "Load two instructions from the paper tape" instruction was 
a bit unusual (one instruction was 20 bits, the word length was 40, so 
it loaded one word at a time). All programs began by a sequence of the 
instruction to load enough of the program into memory; if you had a long 
program it might have to overwrite some parts of itself during 
execution. To actually start the program you flipped switches manually 
on the front to set up the command at address zero in memory and pressed 
'go'.

I later had Hans Riesel - the big prime guy in Sweden - across the hall 
when I was at KTH. He used BESK in 1957 to find the Mersenne prime 
2^3217-1.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From brian at posthuman.com  Mon Mar 18 04:53:41 2013
From: brian at posthuman.com (Brian Atkins)
Date: Sun, 17 Mar 2013 23:53:41 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Can you avoid information theoretic death via 1080p? Re:
 pets, mirrors and cryonics
In-Reply-To: <50969AAE.3080504@posthuman.com>
References: <003d01cdb9f5$cff97290$6fec57b0$@att.net>
 <496c8f1948cb5a2a1c7c852a361c5cd8.squirrel@www.main.nc.us>
 <003301cdba14$22331de0$669959a0$@att.net>
 <005a01cdba50$4c2eadd0$e48c0970$@att.net> <50969AAE.3080504@posthuman.com>
Message-ID: <51469DD5.7060401@posthuman.com>

A great episode of the UK sci-fi tv series Black Mirror aired recently that 
shows off some of the ideas in this thread.

Be Right Back
http://vimeo.com/60153589



From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Mar 18 05:29:31 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sun, 17 Mar 2013 22:29:31 -0700
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
Message-ID: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>


I don't know what to make of this notion of Cyprus taxing bank deposits.  I
would have never thought such a thing would even be discussed, for fear that
it would cause immediate bank runs everywhere in Cyprus, starting Tuesday
when they open, and rippling outward with Greece next, then Ireland,
Portugal, Spain, possibly Italy.

Europeans, do feel free to comment, or not:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100560852

Any rescue attempt I would think would need to come from those who own
property, not those who own currency.  Reasoning: they have just
incentivized the Cypriots and pretty much everyone else holding euros to
convert them to metals.

spike



From clementlawyer at gmail.com  Mon Mar 18 07:41:17 2013
From: clementlawyer at gmail.com (James Clement)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 03:41:17 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Can you avoid information theoretic death via 1080p? Re:
 pets, mirrors and cryonics
In-Reply-To: <50969AAE.3080504@posthuman.com>
References: <003d01cdb9f5$cff97290$6fec57b0$@att.net>
 <496c8f1948cb5a2a1c7c852a361c5cd8.squirrel@www.main.nc.us>
 <003301cdba14$22331de0$669959a0$@att.net>
 <005a01cdba50$4c2eadd0$e48c0970$@att.net>
 <50969AAE.3080504@posthuman.com>
Message-ID: <CA+LBAbStUYykseg0n0Bc_V8hDZ3J3JpaOhztZEw_D+nFZr6QqQ@mail.gmail.com>

Brian Atkins <brian at posthuman.com> wrote:

> For anyone concerned about information theoretic death, I'd suggest
> looking into the lifelogging/quantified self area as a possible cryonics
> enhancement.


If you haven't already read it, Gordon Bell's Total Recall: How the
E-Memory Revolution Will Change Everything," would probably interest you:
http://amzn.to/106orvY.

>From the Publisher: THE TOTAL RECALL REVOLUTION IS INEVITABLE.

IT WILL CHANGE WHAT IT MEANS TO BE HUMAN.

IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

What if you could remember everything? Soon, if you choose, you will be
able to conveniently and affordably record your whole life in minute
detail. You would have Total Recall. Authors Gordon Bell and Jim Gemmell
draw on experience from their MyLifeBits project at Microsoft Research to
explain the benefits to come from an earth-shaking and inevitable increase
in electronic memories. In 1998 they began using Bell, a luminary in the
computer world, as a test case, attempting to digitally record as much of
his life as possible. Photos, letters, and memorabilia were scanned.
Everything he did on his computer was captured. He wore an automatic
camera, an arm-strap that logged his bio-metrics, and began recording
telephone calls. This experiment, and the system created to support it, put
them at the center of a movement studying the creation and enjoyment of
e-memories.

Since then the three streams of technology feeding the Total Recall
revolution-- digital recording, digital storage, and digital search, have
become gushing torrents. We are capturing so much of our lives now, be it
on the date--and location--stamped photos we take with our smart phones or
in the continuous records we have of our emails, instant messages, and
tweets--not to mention the GPS tracking of our movements many cars and
smart phones do automatically. We are storing what we capture either out
there in the "cloud" of services such as Facebook or on our very own
increasingly massive and cheap hard drives. But the critical technology,
and perhaps least understood, is our magical new ability to find the
information we want in the mountain of data that is our past. And not just
Google it, but data mine it so that, say, we can chart how much exercise we
have been doing in the last four weeks in comparison with what we did four
years ago. In health, education, work life, and our personal lives, the
Total Recall revolution is going to change everything. As Bell and Gemmell
show, it has already begun.

*Total Recall* provides a glimpse of the near future. Imagine heart
monitors woven into your clothes and tiny wearable audio and visual
recorders automatically capturing what you see and hear. Imagine being able
to summon up the e-memories of your great grandfather and his avatar giving
you advice about whether or not to go to college, accept that job offer, or
get married. The range of potential insights is truly awesome. But Bell and
Gemmell also show how you can begin to take better advantage of this new
technology right now. From how to navigate the serious questions of privacy
and serious problem of application compatibility to what kind of startups
Bell is willing to invest in and which scanner he prefers, this is a book
about a turning point in human knowledge as well as an immediate and
practical guide.

Total Recall is a technological revolution that will accomplish nothing
less than a transformation in the way humans think about the meaning of
their lives. *"What would happen if we could instantly access all the
information we were exposed to throughout our lives?"*-*Bill Gates, from
the Foreword*
*
*
*
*
Best regards,

James
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From anders at aleph.se  Mon Mar 18 08:54:56 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 08:54:56 +0000
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <5146D660.90801@aleph.se>

On 18/03/2013 05:29, spike wrote:
> I don't know what to make of this notion of Cyprus taxing bank deposits.  I
> would have never thought such a thing would even be discussed, for fear that
> it would cause immediate bank runs everywhere in Cyprus, starting Tuesday
> when they open, and rippling outward with Greece next, then Ireland,
> Portugal, Spain, possibly Italy.

Well, they are in a desperate situation. Their banks had bought a lot of 
Greek debt too, which turned out to be a very bad deal. Since Cyprus is 
not a large economy and probably don't have much other resources to use 
as a collateral for a bailout, it might make sense. It also happens that 
Cyprus is a pretty popular destination for people to put in suitcases of 
cash with no questions asked - there is a surprising number of anonymous 
Russian and other accounts there, belonging to people who has never set 
their foot on the island.

The bank run thing was already partially dealt with: apparently the 
banks placed the deduction in escrow during the weekend. Whether that 
will save them or not, we'll see.

Deep down, the real problem is that financial risk is conserved unless 
discharged. I remember a financially knowledgeable colleague point out 
during the height of the crisis back in 2008 that now governments had 
taken over the huge financial risks (and debts) from the private sector. 
Which didn't resolve the problem, it just moved it one step upwards. The 
eurozone crisis is that move coming home to roost, and the solution has 
partially been trying to foist the hot potato upwards - but there is 
very little upwards left now.

But, yeah, I am happy I have my accounts in non-euro money.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Mar 18 09:20:31 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 10:20:31 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <5146D660.90801@aleph.se>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <5146D660.90801@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20130318092031.GS6172@leitl.org>

On Mon, Mar 18, 2013 at 08:54:56AM +0000, Anders Sandberg wrote:

> The bank run thing was already partially dealt with: apparently the  
> banks placed the deduction in escrow during the weekend. Whether that  

Who would ever trust a bank that just stole 6% or 9% of
your assets? Particulary, the Russians, who're experienced
that kind of thing several times in a row.

> will save them or not, we'll see.

Unless I'm mistaken, the "deduction" just killed the
banks it was supposed to bail out.


From andymck35 at gmail.com  Mon Mar 18 07:18:52 2013
From: andymck35 at gmail.com (Andrew Mckee)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 19:18:52 +1200
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>

On Mon, 18 Mar 2013 17:29:31 +1200, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

>
> I don't know what to make of this notion of Cyprus taxing bank deposits.  I
> would have never thought such a thing would even be discussed, for fear that
> it would cause immediate bank runs everywhere in Cyprus, starting Tuesday
> when they open, and rippling outward with Greece next, then Ireland,
> Portugal, Spain, possibly Italy.
>
> Europeans, do feel free to comment, or not:
>
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/100560852
>
> Any rescue attempt I would think would need to come from those who own
> property, not those who own currency.  Reasoning: they have just
> incentivized the Cypriots and pretty much everyone else holding euros to
> convert them to metals.

I'm beginning to think that those behind these so called 'austerity measures' are less concerned with sound economics and more interested in ending the civilized world as we know it. :-)

Hmmm, I wonder, does this mean the Singularity might be delayed a decade or two.


From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Mar 18 10:50:54 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 11:50:54 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
Message-ID: <20130318105054.GG6172@leitl.org>

On Mon, Mar 18, 2013 at 07:18:52PM +1200, Andrew Mckee wrote:

> Hmmm, I wonder, does this mean the Singularity might be delayed a decade or two.

Which particular Singularity?

Vinge, before 2030, or Kurzweil, before 2045?

World3 seems to predict something for 2030, too,
though it's probably not exactly what we want
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Mon Mar 18 14:34:38 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 15:34:38 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303181450290.30853@tau.ceti.pl>

On Sun, 17 Mar 2013, spike wrote:

[...]
> Any rescue attempt I would think would need to come from those who own
> property, not those who own currency.  Reasoning: they have just
> incentivized the Cypriots and pretty much everyone else holding euros to
> convert them to metals.

Yeah. And then expect following people knocking to your doors: robbers, 
government agents, r-s disguised as ga-s, ga-s disguised as r-s, an so on, 
all coming to confiscate your metals. Legally.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

It was particularly funny, because in 1933 they used a law from 1917, long 
after WW1 was finished. So, before you start collecting, better check if 
all those old papers have been repealed, so they don't get your metals 
with help of WW1-era or Big-Crisis-era statute.

Of course if they want, they can make a new law on as needed basis. So you 
may as well not check out anything.

In the above case, there was almost a month given to citizen, so that he 
had plenty of time to decrim himself. For comparison, in a communist 
country, a law like this was introduced overnight, including devaluation 
or exchange of money (no taxes, no confiscation, just your money was worth 
only half of what they used to be worth a day before... or just 3% of old 
value in case of bank account and 1% in case of cash... or one had to sell 
his gold at not-so-good price... people who got any kind of hint tried 
frantically to buy something before everybody will know).

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From painlord2k at libero.it  Mon Mar 18 15:23:40 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 16:23:40 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <5147317C.4060900@libero.it>

Il 18/03/2013 06:29, spike ha scritto:

> I don't know what to make of this notion of Cyprus taxing bank deposits.

Put it in the "highway robbery example" shelf.
This give much more credibility to the theory of the government as a
"Stationary Bandit".
The problem is in the actual democratic system make the stationary
bandit not so stationary and unable to give her possessions to the
heirs, so there is little incentive to not plunder as much as possible
and to prevent others from plundering.

> I
> would have never thought such a thing would even be discussed, for fear that
> it would cause immediate bank runs everywhere in Cyprus, starting Tuesday
> when they open, and rippling outward with Greece next, then Ireland,
> Portugal, Spain, possibly Italy.

Be there, did that.

In the 1992 the Giuliano Amato (Amato translate in "Loved") government
imposed a 6/1000 tax on all bank deposits during the dead of the night
of a week-end. People here didn't take it too well.

You should be able to understand because so many Italians see the
government as a bunch of ticks

> Europeans, do feel free to comment, or not:

> http://www.cnbc.com/id/100560852

> Any rescue attempt I would think would need to come from those who own
> property, not those who own currency.  Reasoning: they have just
> incentivized the Cypriots and pretty much everyone else holding euros to
> convert them to metals.

Or bitcoins.

In reality they just incentive people to keep money (whatever type of
currencies) out of the banks where it can be easily confiscated by the
government.

I'm not sure using Cyprus as a test bed for this policy was a good idea.
it is too small. The levy will not change much of the systemic problem
but will warn the people in other nations. Also the island is small
(usually islands are small) and people live all near the politicians.
it is not like Italy or Germany or France, where people from the North
must move 1.000 km to go protesting to Rome against 1.000 lawmakers they
doesn't know the face. These are 56 lawmakers and no more than 30 will
ever approve this agreement. I doesn't know if they will stay in Cyprus
after the next elections but I doubt it.

I suppose this move will push precious metals and bitcoin up.
I also think there is a big market for smart contracts: the type useful
for this type of contracts:

http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/How-To-Hire-An-Assassin-On-The-Secret-Internet-4359813.php

They already want be paid in bitcoin, but a smart contract would take
away the trust problem between the parties. The payer would send an open
transaction to the network and the transaction would be fulfilled when
some oracle tell it so. If the contract is not fulfilled before an
agreed upon time, the sum return to the owner address.
Think about it like a Kickstarter service; or we could call it a
Kickender? People could crowd-fund these contracts anonymously.

In a world where government seize your money easily when smart contracts
are possible and easy to setup, I think there will be a lively market to
end some people lives.

There was some book of Vance about a planet where all people was forced
to wear an explosive necklace when they were born and a single man, the
anome, totally unknown to anyone, was able to activate them as he
wished. And people wrote public letters to the anome to have their wrong
redressed when there was no other recourse.
I remember some other book where elected politicians were forced to wear
some explosive device and it would blow up if a majority of the people
so wished.

Good idea, different implementations.

Mirco







From painlord2k at libero.it  Mon Mar 18 18:04:31 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 19:04:31 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <5147317C.4060900@libero.it>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <5147317C.4060900@libero.it>
Message-ID: <5147572F.8030508@libero.it>

Il 18/03/2013 16:23, Mirco Romanato ha scritto:

> I also think there is a big market for smart contracts: the type useful
> for this type of contracts:
> 
> http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/How-To-Hire-An-Assassin-On-The-Secret-Internet-4359813.php
> 
> They already want be paid in bitcoin, but a smart contract would take
> away the trust problem between the parties. The payer would send an open
> transaction to the network and the transaction would be fulfilled when
> some oracle tell it so. If the contract is not fulfilled before an
> agreed upon time, the sum return to the owner address.
> Think about it like a Kickstarter service; or we could call it a
> Kickender? People could crowd-fund these contracts anonymously.
> 
> In a world where government seize your money easily when smart contracts
> are possible and easy to setup, I think there will be a lively market to
> end some people lives.

When I wrote, before, I was half-jocking about a Kick-ender service
funded by bitcoins, but after I read these news

http://marketdailynews.com/2013/03/18/banking-chief-calls-for-15-looting-of-italians-savings/

I think I would just write the message a quarter-jocking.

Mirco

P.S.
We must find a way to speed up the development of smart contracts.
Any suggestion about how setup a "Solve for X" prize?


From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Mar 18 18:55:29 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 11:55:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <5147572F.8030508@libero.it>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <5147317C.4060900@libero.it> <5147572F.8030508@libero.it>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTeEnFrbWmr31rXcqRHz=Fukx07WTm4Racc-Yj==aCzKA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 18, 2013 at 11:04 AM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it> wrote:
> When I wrote, before, I was half-jocking about a Kick-ender service
> funded by bitcoins, but after I read these news
>
> http://marketdailynews.com/2013/03/18/banking-chief-calls-for-15-looting-of-italians-savings/
>
> I think I would just write the message a quarter-jocking.

Yeah, unfortunately, these things are funded by who pays the most.
If Kickender became the way to channel money into political power,
then the rich guys could just as easily knock off any politician or
law enforcement officer who proposed to enforce laws against them.
They can do that now; Kickender would grant them more legitimacy
and less accountability.

> We must find a way to speed up the development of smart contracts.
> Any suggestion about how setup a "Solve for X" prize?

Find the most popular "moonshot"s on their site, break them down
into steps achievable for < $100K each, and set up Kickstarters
for each step along the way as each step is achieved.  Possibly set
up a Kickstarter for a contest to come up with the best-thought-out
plan that does break down into steps achievable for < $100K each.


From max at maxmore.com  Mon Mar 18 21:56:56 2013
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 14:56:56 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Energy boom in USA
Message-ID: <CAJX-7wVJ+NVQW+1Ct8GTxVLc4bgW8iPXUs_eEu9nmpC1Zf5=uQ@mail.gmail.com>

Interesting.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/power-shift-energy-boom-dawning-america-1C8830306

--Max

-- 
Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
Kindle available now:
http://www.amazon.com/The-Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-ebook/dp/B00BQZK6MU/ref=tmm_kin_title_0
President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
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From andymck35 at gmail.com  Mon Mar 18 22:38:51 2013
From: andymck35 at gmail.com (Andrew Mckee)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 10:38:51 +1200
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>

On Mon, 18 Mar 2013 17:29:31 +1200, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

>
> I don't know what to make of this notion of Cyprus taxing bank deposits.  I
> would have never thought such a thing would even be discussed, for fear that
> it would cause immediate bank runs everywhere in Cyprus, starting Tuesday
> when they open, and rippling outward with Greece next, then Ireland,
> Portugal, Spain, possibly Italy.
>
> Europeans, do feel free to comment, or not:
>
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/100560852
>
> Any rescue attempt I would think would need to come from those who own
> property, not those who own currency.  Reasoning: they have just
> incentivized the Cypriots and pretty much everyone else holding euros to
> convert them to metals.

I'm beginning to think that those behind these so called 'austerity measures' are less concerned with sound economics and more interested in ending the civilized world as we know it. :-)

Hmmm, I wonder, does this mean the Singularity might be delayed a decade or two.


From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Mar 18 23:35:04 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 16:35:04 -0700
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
Message-ID: <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>

>... On Behalf Of Andrew Mckee
Subject: Re: [ExI] cyprus banks

On Mon, 18 Mar 2013 17:29:31 +1200, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
...
>
>>... Europeans, do feel free to comment, or not:
>
>>... http://www.cnbc.com/id/100560852
>
...

>...I'm beginning to think that those behind these so called 'austerity
measures' are less concerned with sound economics and more interested in
ending the civilized world as we know it. :-)...
_______________________________________________

Andrew I have a question from your comment.  The Greeks are trying to
instill austerity measures, which are highly unpopular.  One school of
thought holds that it will make the Greek economy worse.  What is the
alternative?

There are some remarkable parallels between the USA and Greece.  The
sequestration could be interpreted as US-style austerity, a very mild
version of it.  The US federal government is borrowing 40 cents on every
dollar it spends.  Clearly this is not sustainable, so what is the endgame?
Commentary by Europeans welcome please: if we extrapolate current trends,
where does this lead?  What happens?  The government insists it cannot cut
anything, and they already raised taxes.  So what happens then?

spike



From painlord2k at libero.it  Tue Mar 19 01:04:00 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 02:04:00 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
Message-ID: <5147B980.3060909@libero.it>

Il 18/03/2013 23:38, Andrew Mckee ha scritto:

> Hmmm, I wonder, does this mean the Singularity might be delayed a decade
> or two.

No. They are just speeding the Bitcoin singularity.
They are just pushing people to adopt Bitcoin en masse desperately.

In the last few days I have made a few of back of the envelope
calculation and consideration.

If bitcoin is a superior form of currency / money in respect of the fiat
money we know (for many reasons), the cost differential in using it to
be paid will make grow the business adopting it faster than the business
not adopting it.

If my conservative estimate is 1% differential, the business there is
able to grow 1% faster than the competition any time the inventory is
cycled. Given if they have competitive prices (they have) they must be
able to sell as fast as possible.
This is 1% of grow for every cycle. If the inventory go completely out
every week, they must be able to grow 1% at week, they can grow 60%
every year just eating sales from competition.
And if you are able to generate a 60% annual return more than the
competition, investors just line up to beg you to take a loan from them.

Mirco










From painlord2k at libero.it  Tue Mar 19 01:07:04 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 02:07:04 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <5147BA38.2040304@libero.it>

Il 19/03/2013 00:35, spike ha scritto:

> Andrew I have a question from your comment.  The Greeks are trying to
> instill austerity measures, which are highly unpopular.  One school of
> thought holds that it will make the Greek economy worse.  What is the
> alternative?

The problem is the austerity is for the wrong people:
1) they raised already high taxes on indebted people
2) they didn't cut government spending at all or just a little
3) they didn't reformed the laws so to allow people to do productive
works with less costs, more competition, etc.

This is true for Greece, Italy, Spain, France, Germany (in a lesser
degree) as is true for US, Canada, Japan and so on.
The difference is one of degree.

> There are some remarkable parallels between the USA and Greece.  The
> sequestration could be interpreted as US-style austerity, a very mild
> version of it.  The US federal government is borrowing 40 cents on every
> dollar it spends.  Clearly this is not sustainable, so what is the endgame?
> Commentary by Europeans welcome please: if we extrapolate current trends,
> where does this lead?  What happens?  The government insists it cannot cut
> anything, and they already raised taxes.  So what happens then?

They raise taxes again and again.
They stop, delay every payment of their debts.
They print, print, print.

Until stuff start disappearing from markets, people start working
illegally so they don't pay taxes and are not bothered by taxmen, riots
in the streets will be common and generally police will be vary to
bother people too much because the people is very hungry, angry and
trigger happy.

We, in Europe see this in many immigrants from East Europe.
Mainly good people, but they react very violently when they think to be
screwed up.

The fruits of socialism.

Mirco




From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Mar 19 01:46:41 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 18:46:41 -0700
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <5147B980.3060909@libero.it>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <5147B980.3060909@libero.it>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQMxAtWFgi0W-4i9RvGW4coSuCD-hcju7JxXGUSP_5grQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 18, 2013 at 6:04 PM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it> wrote:
> If bitcoin is a superior form of currency / money in respect of the fiat
> money we know (for many reasons), the cost differential in using it to
> be paid will make grow the business adopting it faster than the business
> not adopting it.
>
> If my conservative estimate is 1% differential, the business there is
> able to grow 1% faster than the competition any time the inventory is
> cycled. Given if they have competitive prices (they have) they must be
> able to sell as fast as possible.
> This is 1% of grow for every cycle. If the inventory go completely out
> every week, they must be able to grow 1% at week, they can grow 60%
> every year just eating sales from competition.
> And if you are able to generate a 60% annual return more than the
> competition, investors just line up to beg you to take a loan from them.

Notice that this is not happening.  Therefore, it is not in fact more
cost efficient to be paid in bitcoins in most cases.

One might debate whether this is due to instabilities in bitcoin
value, or the inconvenience (and thus loss of value) in exchanging
between bitcons and fiat currency, when most shops only accept
the latter therefore most pay must be thus exchanged to be of
use.  But that is speculation.


From natasha at natasha.cc  Tue Mar 19 02:05:38 2013
From: natasha at natasha.cc (Natasha Vita-More)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 19:05:38 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Anyone going to QS Meetup at Berkeley Friday evening?
Message-ID: <009801ce2446$404afd10$c0e0f730$@natasha.cc>

Hi!  I'll be in Palo Alto for the Advancing Humanity Symposium
<http://events.stanford.edu/events/368/36815/>  (Stanford Univ) and would
love to go to the QS meetup
<http://www.meetup.com/quantifiedself/events/107347932/>  at the Berkeley
Skydeck (2150 Shattuck Ave, Penthouse Floor).
http://www.meetup.com/quantifiedself/events/107347932/

 

If anyone is going and I can catch a ride there with you, please let me
know. I am staying at The Westin Palo Alto.

 

Thanks!

Natasha

 

 <http://www.natasha.cc/> Natasha Vita-More, PhD

esDESiGN_email

Co-Editor: The Transhumanist Reader (Wiley-Blackwell Pub.) Available at
Amazon!
<http://www.amazon.com/Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-Technology-Philosop
hy/dp/1118334310/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1363616965&sr=1-1&keywords=t
he+transhumanist+reader> 

 

Adjunct Professor, University of Advancing Technology

Chairman,  <http://www.humanityplus.org/> Humanity+



 

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From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Tue Mar 19 01:51:01 2013
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2013 21:51:01 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Ultra-cryonics
Message-ID: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

Terrestrial cryopreservation is roughly at 77?K. As we move outward in
space, the ambient temperature drops. Ignoring rotation, a suspended
human in the asteroid belt will be roughly 165-200?K without a dewar.
The Kuiper belt, however, is about 50?K, and the Oort cloud is believed
to be 4-10?K.

Would any measures be required to safely cool a patient to 50?K or to
as low as 4?K beyond what we do today to cool him down to LN
temperatures?

Would our current suspension procedures have to be (or ought they be)
modified for new patients, knowing they would be stored at a lower
or much lower temperature than LN?

What protection would ultra-cooled, deep space suspendees require?

Comes to mind:

- shielding against cosmic rays
- shielding against dust impact
- cushioning against any event that might jostle
- any acceleration is limited to some maximum

I don't see any need for individual patient monitoring but wherever they're
housed needs to either be monitored for damage or self-repairing.

Any other pertinent issues affecting the use of ultracryonics?


-- David.




From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Tue Mar 19 05:36:02 2013
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 00:36:02 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Good coverage of cryonics on the Huff. Post
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPcLwgP7hFFp9ti+9TV2Yq9sB3Rvje+zm=4VTCzYKz=-BQ@mail.gmail.com>

This is a pretty balanced coverage:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/18/cryonics-death-video_n_2883492.html

Giovanni
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From andymck35 at gmail.com  Tue Mar 19 07:14:30 2013
From: andymck35 at gmail.com (Andrew Mckee)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 19:14:30 +1200
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <20130318105054.GG6172@leitl.org>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <20130318105054.GG6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <op.wt6mego00wog37@nikita>

On Mon, 18 Mar 2013 22:50:54 +1200, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:


> Which particular Singularity?
>
> Vinge, before 2030, or Kurzweil, before 2045?


Oh I'd just previously watched the Anonymous Singularity video on Youtube which mentioned 2045.

Why does it make a difference?

Since if I'm lucky enough to see 2046 I'd bet my back teeth that a lot of people will be standing around wondering why the Singularity hasn't happened already, and we'd be hearing a lot of standard boiler plate excuses as to why it didn't.

Then of course some new predictercator would make a brand new bold and visionary prediction, rinse - repeat - ad nauseam.


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Mar 19 07:45:30 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 08:45:30 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Energy boom in USA
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wVJ+NVQW+1Ct8GTxVLc4bgW8iPXUs_eEu9nmpC1Zf5=uQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJX-7wVJ+NVQW+1Ct8GTxVLc4bgW8iPXUs_eEu9nmpC1Zf5=uQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20130319074530.GO6172@leitl.org>

On Mon, Mar 18, 2013 at 02:56:56PM -0700, Max More wrote:

> Interesting.

>
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/power-shift-energy-boom-dawning-america-1C8830306

Unfortunately, it's a flash in a pan, and a very costly mistake.
See The Oil drum http://www.theoildrum.com -- and Nature
agrees.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v494/n7437/full/494307a.html

Energy: A reality check on the shale revolution

J. David Hughes

Nature 494, 307?308 (21 February 2013) doi:10.1038/494307a

Published online 20 February 2013

The production of shale gas and oil in the United States is overhyped and the
costs are underestimated, says J. David Hughes.

Subject terms:

Solid Earth sciences Policy Technology

The 'shale revolution' ? the extraction of gas and oil from previously
inaccessible reservoirs ? has been declared an energy game changer. It is
offsetting declines in conventional oil and gas production, with shale gas
being heralded as a transition fuel to a low-carbon future, and shale oil as
being capable of reinstating the United States as the largest oil producer in
the world, eliminating the need for foreign imports.

These heady claims have been largely accepted by government forecasters,
including the International Energy Agency1 and the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA). The oil firm BP predicts that production of shale gas
will treble and shale oil ? also known as 'tight oil' ? will grow sixfold
from 2011 levels by 2030 (ref. 2).


JIM WILSON/THE NEW YORK TIMES/REDUX/EYEVINE

Gas being burnt off at the Bakken shale oil field in North Dakota as a
by-product of oil extraction.

The claims do not stand up to scrutiny. In a report published this week by
the Post Carbon Institute3 in Santa Rosa, California, I analyse 30 shale-gas
and 21 tight-oil fields (or 'plays') in the United States, and reveal that
the shale revolution will be hard to sustain. The study is based on data for
65,000 shale wells from a production database that is widely used in industry
and government. It shows that well and field productivities exhibit steep
declines. Production costs in many shale-gas plays exceed current gas prices,
and maintaining production requires ever-increasing drilling and the capital
input to support it.

Although the extraction of shale gas and tight oil will continue for a long
time at some level, production is likely to be below the exuberant forecasts
from industry and government. I see supplies of shale gas declining
substantially in the next decade unless prices rise considerably. A more
realistic debate around shale gas and tight oil is urgently needed ? one that
accounts for the fundamentals of production in terms of sustainability, cost
and environmental impact.

Shale gas

Two technologies ? horizontal drilling coupled with large-scale, multi-stage
hydraulic fracturing (fracking) ? have made it possible to extract
hydrocarbons trapped in impermeable rocks (see Nature 477, 271?275; 2011). In
2004, less than 10% of US wells were horizontal; today, the figure is 61%.

Most shale-gas production worldwide is in North America, although pilot
projects are being conducted in many countries. Production has been on a
plateau since early 2012 after a period of sharp growth. Shale gas has risen
from about 2% of US gas production in 2000 to nearly 40% in 2012 (ref. 3);
overall US gas production grew by 25% over the same period. The resulting
supply glut drove US gas prices down severely. Prices have since recovered
slightly but remain too low for many shale-gas plays without liquids
production to be economically viable.

Large-scale shale-gas production was initiated in the Barnett Shale formation
a decade ago, and it spread quickly to other areas. Five plays produce 80% of
US shale gas (listed from highest to lowest output): Haynesville in
Louisiana, Barnett in east Texas, Marcellus (which spans West Virginia,
Pennsylvania and New York), Fayetteville in Arkansas and Woodford in
Oklahoma.


A pattern of events has emerged. When a play is discovered, a leasing frenzy
ensues. This is followed by a drilling boom because the lease assignments,
often 3?5 years long, can be terminated if the site is not producing gas.
Sweet spots ? small areas with high productivity ? are identified and drilled
off first, with marginal areas targeted next. Average well quality (as
determined by initial productivity) rises at first and then declines.

In four of the top five shale-gas plays, average well productivity has been
falling since 2010 (see 'Top five shale plays'). In the Haynesville play, an
average well delivered almost one-third less gas in 2012 than in 2010. The
exception is the Marcellus: supply is rising in this young, large play as
sweet spots are still being found and exploited.

Wells decline rapidly within a few years. Those in the top five US plays
typically produced 80?95% less gas after three years. In my view, the
industry practice of fitting hyperbolic curves to data on declining
productivity, and inferring lifetimes of 40 years or more, is too optimistic.
Existing production histories are a few years at best, and thus are
insufficient to substantiate such long lifetimes for wells. Because
production declines more steeply than these models typically suggest, the
method often overestimates ultimate recoveries and economic performance (see
go.nature.com/kiamlk). The US Geological Survey's recovery estimates are less
than half of those sometimes touted by industry4.

New wells must be drilled to maintain supply. In the Haynesville play, almost
800 wells ? nearly one-third of those that were active in 2012 ? must be
added each year to keep shale-gas output at 2012 levels. With capital costs
of around US$9 million per well, drilling to keep production flat costs some
$7 billion a year. Full costs, including leasing, infrastructure and
interest, are even higher3.

Across the United States, this equates to 7,200 wells at a cost of more than
$42 billion annually, simply to offset declines in production3. This
investment by drilling companies ? to sustain production to prop up share
prices ? is not covered by sales. In 2012, US shale gas generated just $33
billion (although some wells also produced substantial liquid hydrocarbons,
which improved economics). To break even in shale-gas plays without liquids
production, gas prices would have to rise5.

Shale gas thus requires large amounts of capital from industry to maintain
production6. Over time, the best shale plays and their sweet spots are
drilled off, so the costs of keeping up supply will increase. Much of current
shale-gas production is uneconomic, and will require higher gas prices just
to maintain production, let alone increase it.

Tight oil

The story is similar for tight oil. Two plays produce 81% of US tight oil ?
Eagle Ford in south Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana. The
productivity of new wells in both areas drops by about 60% after one year,
levelling out to less than 40% in the second year, less than 30% in the third
year and so on. Overall field decline, which combines the productivity of
older and newer wells, is about 40% per year3.

The ultimate output of these plays depends on the maximum number of available
drilling locations. Wells cannot be drilled too close together because they
drain the same reservoir volume, which increases costs and does not improve
recovery. The EIA estimates that the Bakken and Eagle Ford plays can host
almost three times the current number of wells, or nearly 12,000 each3, 7.

Assuming that the Bakken's current drilling rate of 1,500 wells a year is
maintained, my analysis predicts that its production could rise to nearly 1
million barrels of oil a day. Given the EIA estimates of the maximum number
of available drilling locations in the Bakken, however, I suggest that
production will peak by 2017, when available well sites are exhausted, and
then fall by 40% a year. I disagree with those who maintain that the Bakken's
production can stay at that high level for many years ? this would require
thousands more wells than would fit8.

Long view

Governments and industry must recognize that shale gas and oil are not cheap
or inexhaustible: 70% of US shale gas comes from fields that are either flat
or in decline. And the sustainability of tight-oil production over the longer
term is questionable.

High-productivity shale plays are not ubiquitous, as some would have us
believe. Six out of 30 plays account for 88% of shale-gas production, and two
out of 21 plays account for 81% of tight-oil production. Much of the oil and
gas produced comes from relatively small sweet spots within the fields.
Overall well quality will decline as sweet spots become saturated with wells,
requiring an ever-increasing number of wells to sustain production.

Production will ultimately be limited by available drilling locations, and
when they run out, production will fall at rates of 30?50% per year. This is
projected to occur within 5 years for the Bakken and Eagle Ford tight-oil
plays.

The EIA's projections imply that, by 2040, the United States will recover all
currently known shale-gas reserves, 58% of unproved shale-gas resources and
78% of unproved tight-oil resources7, 9. These predictions are wildly
optimistic given the fundamentals of producing these hydrocarbons. Similarly,
the EIA forecast of gas prices strains credibility9 because it is below many
other estimates of the cost of production with steadily rising supply for the
next two decades. Declaring US energy independence and laying plans to export
the shale bounty is unwise. The long-term viability of the shale revolution
must be accounted for in a sustainable energy strategy for the future.

References

References Author information Comments Related links

World Energy Outlook 2012 (IEA, 2012).

BP Energy Outlook 2030 (BP, 2013).

Hughes, J. D. Drill, Baby, Drill (Post Carbon Institute, 2013).

US Geological Survey. Open-File Report 2012?1118 (USGS, 2012).

Jacoby, H. D. et al. Econ. Energy Environ. Policy 1, 37?51 (2012).

Krauss, C. & Lipton, E. New York Times (20 October 2012).

US Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA, 2012).

Morse, E. L. Energy 2020 (Citi, 2012).

US Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
(EIA, 2012).


From andymck35 at gmail.com  Tue Mar 19 09:33:50 2013
From: andymck35 at gmail.com (Andrew Mckee)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 21:33:50 +1200
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <5147B980.3060909@libero.it>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <5147B980.3060909@libero.it>
Message-ID: <op.wt6suovt0wog37@nikita>

On Tue, 19 Mar 2013 13:04:00 +1200, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it> wrote:

> Il 18/03/2013 23:38, Andrew Mckee ha scritto:
>
>> Hmmm, I wonder, does this mean the Singularity might be delayed a decade
>> or two.
>
> No. They are just speeding the Bitcoin singularity.
> They are just pushing people to adopt Bitcoin en masse desperately.

I'm sure it will to some degree, and no doubt will prove a nice safe harbor for those willing to put their trust in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

But how many big science and technology projects are being funded by Bitcoins?


From anders at aleph.se  Tue Mar 19 09:36:21 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 09:36:21 +0000
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <51483195.40207@aleph.se>

Here is a fun take on the situation: a pen-and-paper roleplaying game
http://crookedtimber.org/2013/03/19/what-would-you-do-part-2-the-island-of-surpyc/

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Mar 19 09:56:55 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 10:56:55 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <op.wt6mego00wog37@nikita>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <20130318105054.GG6172@leitl.org>
 <op.wt6mego00wog37@nikita>
Message-ID: <20130319095655.GR6172@leitl.org>

On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 07:14:30PM +1200, Andrew Mckee wrote:

> Oh I'd just previously watched the Anonymous Singularity video on Youtube which mentioned 2045.
>
> Why does it make a difference?

Because predictions have to be falsifyable. 

> Since if I'm lucky enough to see 2046 I'd bet my back teeth that a lot of people will be standing around wondering why the Singularity hasn't happened already, and we'd be hearing a lot of standard boiler plate excuses as to why it didn't.

2045 is still comfortably remote enough that
people will forget. Kurzweil will be dead,
or in the dewar, so nobody can call him on
on this prediction.

Vernor Vinge is 68 year old already, so I
hope he makes his 2030 date (he'll be 85 years
old by then).

http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/WER2.html

"Progress in hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater-than-human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles Platt has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making claims like this for thirty years. Just so I'm not guilty of a relative-time ambiguity, let me be more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.) 
Now in 2003, I still think this time range statement is reasonable."

A decade later, less than 17 years remains from that
point. Wonder whether his assessment hasn't changed 
meanwhile. 

> Then of course some new predictercator would make a brand new bold and visionary prediction, rinse - repeat - ad nauseam.


From andymck35 at gmail.com  Tue Mar 19 08:12:03 2013
From: andymck35 at gmail.com (Andrew Mckee)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 20:12:03 +1200
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita>

On Tue, 19 Mar 2013 11:35:04 +1200, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:


> Andrew I have a question from your comment.  The Greeks are trying to
> instill austerity measures, which are highly unpopular.  One school of
> thought holds that it will make the Greek economy worse.  What is the
> alternative?

Errr, print more money just like the US has been doing lately?, but of course give it a lofty technical sounding name so that they don't scare the woman and children and the other timid folk.

I've heard a few economists mentioning that doing so in the current recessionary/deflationary/stagnatary times has none of the inflationary effects it would normally do, so why not, after all its only money, its not like it's real or anything.

But I guess the government there has both its hands tied behind its back with that whole Eurozone thing.

So maybe it's time for the common folk to rise up against their oppressive thieving leaders and parade there heads around the town square on the ends of pointy sticks, no wait, there's no way that would ever happen - but it would be damned funny if it did!  ;-)

> dollar it spends.  Clearly this is not sustainable, so what is the endgame?
> Commentary by Europeans welcome please: if we extrapolate current trends,
> where does this lead?  What happens?  The government insists it cannot cut
> anything, and they already raised taxes.  So what happens then?

Hang on a tic I'll give the magic 8 ball a shake, hmmm, it says 'Things will be more or less like they are now, with the exception that the poor will be slightly poorer, and the rich handsomely richer'

Was anyone expecting anything different to play out?


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Mar 19 10:08:10 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 11:08:10 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <20130319100810.GS6172@leitl.org>

On Mon, Mar 18, 2013 at 04:35:04PM -0700, spike wrote:

> There are some remarkable parallels between the USA and Greece.  The
> sequestration could be interpreted as US-style austerity, a very mild
> version of it.  The US federal government is borrowing 40 cents on every
> dollar it spends.  Clearly this is not sustainable, so what is the endgame?

The endgame is loss of trust, loss of the special status as reserve
currency (can take a while still, I would have expected that would
have happened already a while ago), and a sovereign default.

> Commentary by Europeans welcome please: if we extrapolate current trends,
> where does this lead?  What happens?  The government insists it cannot cut
> anything, and they already raised taxes.  So what happens then?

See above. It's provably impossible to pay back the debt, and 
quantitative easing to get rid of debt is not sustainable, since
it destroys the value of the currency long-term.

Make no mistake, this is not merely a financial crisis.
This is a systemic crisis, fueled by high prices of energy
and peak everything in general, exacerbated by competition
through globalization ( http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9871 ).

This should have been addressed with long-term, expensive
structural changes going back to 1970s. That did not happen,
and our abilities to change the global course are largely
gone, and the rest is evaporating fast.

I hear the successor to Chu is a natural gas and nuke man.
I'm very much not impressed with Chu's work, and I expect
even less from his successor.


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Mar 19 10:34:17 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 11:34:17 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQMxAtWFgi0W-4i9RvGW4coSuCD-hcju7JxXGUSP_5grQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <5147B980.3060909@libero.it>
 <CALAdGNQMxAtWFgi0W-4i9RvGW4coSuCD-hcju7JxXGUSP_5grQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20130319103416.GU6172@leitl.org>

On Mon, Mar 18, 2013 at 06:46:41PM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:

> Notice that this is not happening.  Therefore, it is not in fact more
> cost efficient to be paid in bitcoins in most cases.

The Bitcoin economy is still very small by classical standards,
and sees little trust.

I consider Bitcoin a high-risk high-payoff investment
http://falkvinge.net/2013/03/06/the-target-value-for-bitcoin-is-not-some-50-or-100-it-is-100000-to-1000000/
and a potential hedge against hyperinflating fiats.
 
> One might debate whether this is due to instabilities in bitcoin
> value, or the inconvenience (and thus loss of value) in exchanging
> between bitcons and fiat currency, when most shops only accept

The interesting things happen when you no longer have
to exchange BTC for EUR or USD.

> the latter therefore most pay must be thus exchanged to be of
> use.  But that is speculation.


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Mar 19 10:37:27 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 11:37:27 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Ultra-cryonics
In-Reply-To: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <20130319103727.GV6172@leitl.org>

On Mon, Mar 18, 2013 at 09:51:01PM -0400, David Lubkin wrote:
> Terrestrial cryopreservation is roughly at 77?K. As we move outward in

-196 C is too cold. Intermediate temperature storage 
at -120..-130 C is optimal, with current glass-formers.
I expect that temperature to go up in future.

> space, the ambient temperature drops. Ignoring rotation, a suspended
> human in the asteroid belt will be roughly 165-200?K without a dewar.
> The Kuiper belt, however, is about 50?K, and the Oort cloud is believed
> to be 4-10?K.

Cryonics is currently expensive and unsafe enough.
No need to add rockets to that mix.

> Would any measures be required to safely cool a patient to 50?K or to
> as low as 4?K beyond what we do today to cool him down to LN
> temperatures?

Why would you want to?

> Would our current suspension procedures have to be (or ought they be)
> modified for new patients, knowing they would be stored at a lower
> or much lower temperature than LN?
>
> What protection would ultra-cooled, deep space suspendees require?
>
> Comes to mind:
>
> - shielding against cosmic rays
> - shielding against dust impact
> - cushioning against any event that might jostle
> - any acceleration is limited to some maximum
>
> I don't see any need for individual patient monitoring but wherever they're
> housed needs to either be monitored for damage or self-repairing.
>
> Any other pertinent issues affecting the use of ultracryonics?

Yes. It's not going to happen.


From anders at aleph.se  Tue Mar 19 11:11:34 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 11:11:34 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Ultra-cryonics
In-Reply-To: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <514847E6.1020504@aleph.se>

Short version: ultra-cryonics is probably not worth the effort because 
it is hard and expensive to reach the outer system, and the preservation 
benefits are offset by risk and radiation.


Chemical reaction rates follow the Arrhenius equation, r=A*exp(-E/kT), 
where A is a constant, E the activation energy, k the Boltzmann constant 
constant and T the temperature. If you want the ratio between r at 
temperature T1 and T0, it is r(T1)/r(T0) = exp(-(E/k)(1/T1 - 1/T0)). So 
if we have a reaction where E is a few tens of kJ/mol (seems typical for 
biochemistry) I get E/k around 1000, going from T=300 K to 77 K would 
give us a rate reduction of 0.00006 - more than four orders of 
magnitude. Going down to 4 K gives 107 orders of magnitude(!).

This is also why it might not be much use in doing ultra-cryonics: fast 
reactions you can stop this way will already have happened before you 
chill the body deep enough. Still, I was a bit annoyed at seeing a mere 
four or five orders of magnitude for standard cryonics: that would make 
a few decades equivalent to a day of chemical decay. However, I suspect 
the lack of liquid diffusion and the non-linearities in the real world 
(A is temperature dependent to some extent) might make things better - 
it would be interesting to do the calculation carefully for a few 
example enzymatic and non-enzymatic reactions important for body 
deterioration.

On 19/03/2013 01:51, David Lubkin wrote:
> Would any measures be required to safely cool a patient to 50?K or to
> as low as 4?K beyond what we do today to cool him down to LN
> temperatures?
>
> Would our current suspension procedures have to be (or ought they be)
> modified for new patients, knowing they would be stored at a lower
> or much lower temperature than LN?

I would assume there is not much change, since the big problem is 
getting core temperatures down fast, and get them below freezing without 
ice crystal formation: the final temperature is not a part of the analysis.

However, the amount of strain due to thermal contraction is roughly 
proportional to the temperature difference. Going to 4 rather than 77 K 
means 32% more strain. The yield strength goes up a bit for materials as 
you cool them, but which one wins depends a lot on the material - I 
suspect things are really complicated because of the different thermal 
expansions of different components. See http://goo.gl/CBB21 for more fun 
materials physics.

One obvious problem is that launching something into the Kuiper or Oort 
cloud is going to require a rocket. A dangerous, vibrating, occasionally 
exploding rocket.

Launch safety is a real thing. Looking at 
http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/log2012.html shows around 7.7% of 
launch failures. Is the improved storage viability worth a fairly high 
chance of getting incinerated?

I don't know what vibrations a frozen body can handle. The early Saturn 
launches had 5 G vibrations at 11 Hz, and looking at figure 1 of 
http://www.scielo.cl/pdf/ingeniare/v14n3/art09.pdf suggests that the 
space shuttle is a bit milder. A frozen body has a higher speed of sound 
(~3890 m/s for bubble free ice at -20, 
http://www.physik.rwth-aachen.de/fileadmin/user_upload/www_physik/Institute/Inst_3B/Forschung/IceCube/publications/aachen_SpeedOfSound_preprint.pdf 
vs 1540 m/s in soft tissue) so the new resonant frequencies would be a 
few times higher. So there are some definite issues here about whether 
this shaking might cause cracking.

Cosmic rays are definitely something to consider. Long-term storage 
means that you integrate the radiation flux across the storage time. In 
interplanetary space cosmic rays would give humans 400-900 mSv per year.

The biological effect on a frozen body will be somewhat different to an 
active body. In active bodies, when you reach a few Sieverts you get to 
fatal acute doses, so that suggests the viability of storage is just a 
few years if the effect is like getting all the damage at once. In 
active bodies self-repair can do some pretty nifty things: Albert 
Stevens survived 64 Sv over 21 years after being injected with plutonium 
in 1945. But I suspect a frozen body just accumulates damage. Adding a 
lot of shielding seems to be a good idea: if going to the outer system, 
you might want to bury the body inside a Kuiper belt object.

BTW, going for the Oort cloud also means you will be outside the 
termination shock, which apparently reduces the < 1 GeV rays by 90%.



-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Mar 19 11:41:47 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 12:41:47 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Ultra-cryonics
In-Reply-To: <514847E6.1020504@aleph.se>
References: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <514847E6.1020504@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20130319114147.GX6172@leitl.org>

On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 11:11:34AM +0000, Anders Sandberg wrote:

> Chemical reaction rates follow the Arrhenius equation, r=A*exp(-E/kT),  

Beyond glass point they don't, since reactive moities are locked
in the matrix. See argon matrix for an analogous system.

> where A is a constant, E the activation energy, k the Boltzmann constant  
> constant and T the temperature. If you want the ratio between r at  
> temperature T1 and T0, it is r(T1)/r(T0) = exp(-(E/k)(1/T1 - 1/T0)). So  
> if we have a reaction where E is a few tens of kJ/mol (seems typical for  
> biochemistry) I get E/k around 1000, going from T=300 K to 77 K would  
> give us a rate reduction of 0.00006 - more than four orders of  
> magnitude. Going down to 4 K gives 107 orders of magnitude(!).


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Mar 19 12:11:04 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 13:11:04 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Fermi's Paradoxical Politburo
In-Reply-To: <1363407360.3576.YahooMailNeo@web126206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>
References: <5123A089.8030604@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv3MO6nSgKPL0K6pSO6dAP+pHOg8=n0Ahkg13MyDUL3Fyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <1361360727.93284.YahooMailNeo@web160502.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <004d01ce0f81$bdca4270$395ec750$@rainier66.com>
 <1362841748.64646.YahooMailNeo@web160501.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <CAPoR7a6UhV0tfaNaLS8UEqwDoip2xWJhr+RhJ667RHVQ4_MUwg@mail.gmail.com>
 <1363295592.23409.YahooMailNeo@web126203.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>
 <CAAc1gFiFkXyvsuFsZM598qdSa5S0zuAXiNkWaLwpd6eqSr+8Aw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130315182325.GD6172@leitl.org>
 <1363407360.3576.YahooMailNeo@web126206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <20130319121104.GB6172@leitl.org>

On Fri, Mar 15, 2013 at 09:16:00PM -0700, Dan wrote:

> > Amish show some selective adoption of technology,
> 
> True, but I see no reason why ETs might be similarly selective. You know, some sect might take space tech, but stop at having AI or nanotech. The issue here, for me, is less that most wouldn't -- even as most of humanity isn't Amish or Luddite -- but that only a few of them would likely overrun the galaxy in short order.

My point precisely.
 
> > and of course not everybody returns back into the fold after
> > rumpschpringe, though most do.
> 
> I've heard 90% return, but this was in a documentary -- not a vetted source. I think the most here is much more than 51%, so maybe 90% is correct. If there's anything to what I'm saying, one can imagine ETs visiting the homeworld or the home dyson to soak in the new tech for a while with many returning to the frontier. At least, it might make a good story. :)
> 
> > No population of agents can be uniform, and no policy
> > can be 100% enforced. As such sustained containment is
> > arbitrarily improbable, especially across population of
> > populations with no common point of origin, across deep
> > time.
> 
> Exactly! The best examples we have on Earth are totalitarian states like the Soviet 
> Union under Stalin. Even they were rather shortlived (though there seems no principled 

Except they would be a lot more diverse (speciated) and across
a much wider substrate (lightday to a lightyear), since 
ability to cross interstellar distances implies ability
to colonize the local stellar system.

> reason why they might not last longer) and there were people 
> getting around the controls or escaping all together. We'd 

There is a push towards making probes more autonmous
http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2013/03/esa-launches-drone-app-to-crowdsource-flight-data/
which if coupled with ISRU self-rep and impossibility of
perfect control implies that probability of escapes
are pretty high.

> have to postulate that every last civilization develops total 
> states to such a degree that there's no escape or rule-breakers 
> or that so many have that it might as well be all.

Right.


From painlord2k at libero.it  Tue Mar 19 12:47:37 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 13:47:37 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <20130319100810.GS6172@leitl.org>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
 <20130319100810.GS6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <51485E69.4010607@libero.it>

Il 19/03/2013 11:08, Eugen Leitl ha scritto:

> See above. It's provably impossible to pay back the debt, and 
> quantitative easing to get rid of debt is not sustainable, since
> it destroys the value of the currency long-term.

It is technically impossible to pay back the debt in Europe, because
from 2002 to 2012 the E0 (Euro base) has gone from 400 billions of ? to
1.200 billions of ? (and it is increasing even with the Bundesbank
braking like hell).

Just repaying the 800 billions created by the ECB plus interests would
probably reduce the base around 300 billions, repaying the previous
debts would simply clear it completely and then would be needed some more.
There is more debt than the fiat money needed to repay it, in EU, in US,
in Japan, everywhere.

And this supposing all the credit created by the fractional reserve
system is repaid (what a concept).

This is because gold, silver, bitcoin, are a better alternative and one
unencumbered by debt, government control or other nastiness.

All this mess is to save the asses of German banks, because they loaned
out so much funds to so many fools the banks are already technically
broken. All of this is to put money back in the bank and shift the debts
to the ECB and the local banks.

Mirco





From anders at aleph.se  Tue Mar 19 12:51:01 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 12:51:01 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Ultra-cryonics
In-Reply-To: <20130319114147.GX6172@leitl.org>
References: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <514847E6.1020504@aleph.se> <20130319114147.GX6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <51485F35.3040000@aleph.se>

On 19/03/2013 11:41, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 11:11:34AM +0000, Anders Sandberg wrote:
>
>> Chemical reaction rates follow the Arrhenius equation, r=A*exp(-E/kT),
> Beyond glass point they don't, since reactive moities are locked
> in the matrix. See argon matrix for an analogous system.

Do we have any data on how reaction rates behave in the locked state?

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Tue Mar 19 12:47:10 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan Ust)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 08:47:10 -0400
Subject: [ExI] The Conquest of the Future
Message-ID: <A3896360-CD4D-4FA4-A157-5C4023985C8F@yahoo.com>

http://reason.com/archives/2013/03/19/the-conquest-of-the-future

Thought this review might be if interest. I have yet to read this book.

Regards,

Dan
My science fiction short story "Residue" is now on Amazon at:

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the US
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From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Mar 19 13:05:13 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 14:05:13 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Ultra-cryonics
In-Reply-To: <51485F35.3040000@aleph.se>
References: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <514847E6.1020504@aleph.se> <20130319114147.GX6172@leitl.org>
 <51485F35.3040000@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20130319130513.GH6172@leitl.org>

On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 12:51:01PM +0000, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> On 19/03/2013 11:41, Eugen Leitl wrote:
>> On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 11:11:34AM +0000, Anders Sandberg wrote:
>>
>>> Chemical reaction rates follow the Arrhenius equation, r=A*exp(-E/kT),
>> Beyond glass point they don't, since reactive moities are locked
>> in the matrix. See argon matrix for an analogous system.
>
> Do we have any data on how reaction rates behave in the locked state?

Devitrification rate much below T_g is effectively zero. 
Of course there are adjacent species, and especially
unsaturated lipids in the lipid bilayer might e.g. do
radical polymerization, unless you quench radicals
with suitable antioxidants (typically, given during
suspension protocol).

Also I don't think that radiation damage or (slow)
chemical reactions have an impact on resuscitation, 
given that resuscitation of the actual physical system
appears sufficiently difficult so that it's likely
only being used as a template, with much of the work
occuring in the digital domain, or entirely in in
the digital domain.


From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Tue Mar 19 13:17:30 2013
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 09:17:30 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Ultra-cryonics
In-Reply-To: <20130319103727.GV6172@leitl.org>
References: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <20130319103727.GV6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <201303191317.r2JDHqu6011566@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

Eugen wrote:

>Cryonics is currently expensive and unsafe enough.
>No need to add rockets to that mix.
         :
>Why would you want to?

You  and Anders have made an incorrect assumption.  (But, thank you
Anders, for answering anyway.)

Grandpa is already out there.

The scenario is that humans have settled in the Kuiper belt and then in the
Oort cloud. Where the "outside" temperature is colder ? or much colder ?
than LN. Plus cosmic rays, dust impacts, isolation, etc.

Perhaps your grandkids never liked you anyway, and would just as soon
recycle you in the CELSS. Mine are sentimental, or won't get anything in
my will unless I'm preserved.

Hence: Given the ambient conditions in the Kuiper belt and the Oort cloud,
how am I suspended and how am I stored?


-- David.




From painlord2k at libero.it  Tue Mar 19 13:29:39 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 14:29:39 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <op.wt6suovt0wog37@nikita>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <5147B980.3060909@libero.it>
 <op.wt6suovt0wog37@nikita>
Message-ID: <51486843.4060801@libero.it>

Il 19/03/2013 10:33, Andrew Mckee ha scritto:
> On Tue, 19 Mar 2013 13:04:00 +1200, Mirco Romanato
> <painlord2k at libero.it> wrote:
> 
>> Il 18/03/2013 23:38, Andrew Mckee ha scritto:
>>
>>> Hmmm, I wonder, does this mean the Singularity might be delayed a decade
>>> or two.
>>
>> No. They are just speeding the Bitcoin singularity.
>> They are just pushing people to adopt Bitcoin en masse desperately.
> 
> I'm sure it will to some degree, and no doubt will prove a nice safe
> harbor for those willing to put their trust in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
> 
> But how many big science and technology projects are being funded by
> Bitcoins?

How many science and technology project were funded by PayPal ten years ago?
Not one at the time.
But now? A few, and a very interesting few.

BTW, I don't know "big science and technology" I only know "science and
technology". The big is for statists. Original science and technology is
rarely done by more than one or few individual together.

Mirco




From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Mar 19 13:33:48 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 14:33:48 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Ultra-cryonics
In-Reply-To: <201303191317.r2JDHqu6011566@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <20130319103727.GV6172@leitl.org>
 <201303191317.r2JDHqu6011566@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <20130319133348.GL6172@leitl.org>

On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 09:17:30AM -0400, David Lubkin wrote:
> Eugen wrote:
>
>> Cryonics is currently expensive and unsafe enough.
>> No need to add rockets to that mix.
>         :
>> Why would you want to?
>
> You  and Anders have made an incorrect assumption.  (But, thank you

I think we've made the right assumption: if you're already out there,
you won't need to be suspended. You're mostly likely solid state to
start with, so any "suspension" is instantly reversible. 

> Anders, for answering anyway.)
>
> Grandpa is already out there.

Then, he won't need to be suspended. 

> The scenario is that humans have settled in the Kuiper belt and then in the

Sorry, not gonna happen. Moon and Mars maybe, everything else, 
it's for solid-state. Monkeys don't travel well.

> Oort cloud. Where the "outside" temperature is colder ? or much colder ?
> than LN. Plus cosmic rays, dust impacts, isolation, etc.
>
> Perhaps your grandkids never liked you anyway, and would just as soon
> recycle you in the CELSS. Mine are sentimental, or won't get anything in
> my will unless I'm preserved.
>
> Hence: Given the ambient conditions in the Kuiper belt and the Oort cloud,
> how am I suspended and how am I stored?




From painlord2k at libero.it  Tue Mar 19 13:52:12 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 14:52:12 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <20130319103416.GU6172@leitl.org>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <5147B980.3060909@libero.it>
 <CALAdGNQMxAtWFgi0W-4i9RvGW4coSuCD-hcju7JxXGUSP_5grQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130319103416.GU6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <51486D8C.9080301@libero.it>

Il 19/03/2013 11:34, Eugen Leitl ha scritto:
> On Mon, Mar 18, 2013 at 06:46:41PM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:
> 
>> Notice that this is not happening.  Therefore, it is not in fact more
>> cost efficient to be paid in bitcoins in most cases.
> 
> The Bitcoin economy is still very small by classical standards,
> and sees little trust.
> 
> I consider Bitcoin a high-risk high-payoff investment
> http://falkvinge.net/2013/03/06/the-target-value-for-bitcoin-is-not-some-50-or-100-it-is-100000-to-1000000/
> and a potential hedge against hyperinflating fiats.

You can keep your money in a bank where government can and will seize it,
you can keep in in cash, in or out a bank, or in bonds where central
bankers can inflate and debase it
you can keep in precious metal where the government will try to outlaw
and seize it (and good luck to buy stuff with it in person or far away
you can keep

Compared to them, the risk is not so high.


>> One might debate whether this is due to instabilities in bitcoin
>> value, or the inconvenience (and thus loss of value) in exchanging
>> between bitcons and fiat currency, when most shops only accept

> The interesting things happen when you no longer have
> to exchange BTC for EUR or USD.

Exactly.

>> the latter therefore most pay must be thus exchanged to be of
>> use.  But that is speculation.

But more speculation there is, more the price go up (and there is no way
to bring more BTC on the market to keep the price low because the design
do not allow this).
And, as the price go up, the purchasing power that can be transfered
grow, allowing bigger transactions.

As I wrote, it is a black hole. It is a cancer. It is a singularity. Its
pull is greater than other fiat money pull. Standing the current setup,
it will eat them all given enough time. Not only the currencies, but a
large part of the banking system and of the financial system.

Satoshi Nakamoto had a mustard seed and was not afraid to use it.

Mirco




From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Tue Mar 19 14:43:52 2013
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 10:43:52 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Ultra-cryonics
In-Reply-To: <20130319133348.GL6172@leitl.org>
References: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <20130319103727.GV6172@leitl.org>
 <201303191317.r2JDHqu6011566@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <20130319133348.GL6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <201303191445.r2JEjXpW009974@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

Eugen wrote:

>I think we've made the right assumption: if you're already out there,
>you won't need to be suspended. You're mostly likely solid state to
>start with, so any "suspension" is instantly reversible.
         :
>Sorry, not gonna happen. Moon and Mars maybe, everything else,
>it's for solid-state. Monkeys don't travel well.

Yes, thank you. I've been here for over twenty years. I know that
argument.

This is a scenario where solid state isn't an option. Neither uploading
nor sentient solid-state nor staying among the inner planets. Where it's
either cope with the extreme environmental conditions as meat or go
extinct. I do not want to elaborate; the more I talk about a story, the less
need I have to write it.

Limited genemod and nanotech can be assumed.

If you don't want to speculate within my premises, fine. I'm looking for
folks who will.


-- David.



From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Mar 19 15:13:56 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 16:13:56 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Ultra-cryonics
In-Reply-To: <201303191445.r2JEjXpW009974@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <20130319103727.GV6172@leitl.org>
 <201303191317.r2JDHqu6011566@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <20130319133348.GL6172@leitl.org>
 <201303191445.r2JEjXpW009974@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <20130319151356.GX6172@leitl.org>

On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 10:43:52AM -0400, David Lubkin wrote:

> Yes, thank you. I've been here for over twenty years. I know that
> argument.

What, has it been twenty years already? Time flies.

> This is a scenario where solid state isn't an option. Neither uploading
> nor sentient solid-state nor staying among the inner planets. Where it's
> either cope with the extreme environmental conditions as meat or go
> extinct. I do not want to elaborate; the more I talk about a story, the less
> need I have to write it.
>
> Limited genemod and nanotech can be assumed.
>
> If you don't want to speculate within my premises, fine. I'm looking for
> folks who will.

Oh, it's for a story. Didn't catch that.

Have you read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiasco_(novel)
?


From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Tue Mar 19 17:16:17 2013
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 13:16:17 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Ultra-cryonics
In-Reply-To: <20130319151356.GX6172@leitl.org>
References: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <20130319103727.GV6172@leitl.org>
 <201303191317.r2JDHqu6011566@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <20130319133348.GL6172@leitl.org>
 <201303191445.r2JEjXpW009974@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <20130319151356.GX6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <201303191716.r2JHGhbY006478@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

Eugen wrote:

>What, has it been twenty years already? Time flies.

As I may have posted once, I know the passage of time occurs but
my instincts are to act like it doesn't. What I did decades earlier has
always been as crisp to me as yesterday. And I become impatient
waiting for obvious developments to become reality.

>Oh, it's for a story. Didn't catch that.

I mentioned that in the thread on musical instruments in space.
Any questions I pose for the next while are apt to be for the future
history.

It is hard sf. Some of what I'm working out I plan to also publish
as non-fiction. If you like, think of it as a thought experiment in
what are the least we need in discoveries and new technologies
to be viable indefinitely without any of the inner planets. And
I'm exploring facets of life that have historically been given short
shrift in sf, that would be practical concerns if this future came
to pass.

Cryonics is not important to any planned stories. It's in the
backdrop, as one of the aspects of life out there, alongside
(for instance) the question of avoiding leaky diapers in
micro-gravity.

>Have you read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiasco_(novel)

No. I've never been able to get into Lem.


-- David.



From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Tue Mar 19 18:15:14 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 11:15:14 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Swallows may be evolving to dodge traffic
Message-ID: <1363716914.88870.YahooMailNeo@web126204.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>

http://www.nature.com/news/swallows-may-be-evolving-to-dodge-traffic-1.12614

The next step might be to discover if there's been a shift in the genes in the population.

Regards,

Dan
?My science fiction short story "Residue" is now on Amazon:

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the US
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From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Tue Mar 19 18:30:59 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 11:30:59 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Fermi's Paradoxical Politburo
In-Reply-To: <20130319121104.GB6172@leitl.org>
References: <5123A089.8030604@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv3MO6nSgKPL0K6pSO6dAP+pHOg8=n0Ahkg13MyDUL3Fyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <1361360727.93284.YahooMailNeo@web160502.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <004d01ce0f81$bdca4270$395ec750$@rainier66.com>
 <1362841748.64646.YahooMailNeo@web160501.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <CAPoR7a6UhV0tfaNaLS8UEqwDoip2xWJhr+RhJ667RHVQ4_MUwg@mail.gmail.com>
 <1363295592.23409.YahooMailNeo@web126203.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>
 <CAAc1gFiFkXyvsuFsZM598qdSa5S0zuAXiNkWaLwpd6eqSr+8Aw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130315182325.GD6172@leitl.org>
 <1363407360.3576.YahooMailNeo@web126206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>
 <20130319121104.GB6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <1363717859.62498.YahooMailNeo@web126206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>

On Tuesday, March 19, 2013 8:11 AM Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org>> wrote:
>>> No population of agents can be uniform, and no policy
>>> can be 100% enforced. As such sustained containment is
>>> arbitrarily improbable, especially across population of
>>> populations with no common point of origin, across deep
>>> time.
>>?
>> Exactly! The best examples we have on Earth are totalitarian
>> states like the Soviet Union under Stalin. Even they were
>> rather shortlived (though there seems no principled?
>
> Except they would be a lot more diverse (speciated) and across
> a much wider substrate (lightday to a lightyear), since?
> ability to cross interstellar distances implies ability
> to colonize the local stellar system.

I believe you can local despotisms or local totalitarian states, but, as long as you're able to settle space and move across such distances, then I think it's hard to make something like a Berlin Wall to keep sentients penned in. So, I'm more skeptical of a regime spreading out. That might not mean, though, something like a libertarian space society, but maybe something more like fiefdoms with none of them being able to maintain hegemony. Still, I'm an optimist here: as long as there's an escape valve -- and, in these cases, it might prove to be a very large one -- this is likely to lead to some amelioration of command and control, if only to prevent the brightest or most creative sentients from leaving (and even returning to wreack havoc on the regim). If terrestrial totalitarian regimes give any clue, the ones that were able to prevent emigration seem to have been the most successful.

Of course, this still doesn't mean something local might not evolve on Earth that would completely suppress the escape valve and do this for a long enough time to improve command and control to pretty much lock off the world for centuries. I fear this and it's one reason to support space tourism or anything to make getting off world more efficient and less centrally controlled now -- rather than test the hypothesis here. :)

>> reason why they might not last longer) and there were people?
>> getting around the controls or escaping all together. We'd?
>?
> There is a push towards making probes more autonmous
> http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2013/03/esa-launches-drone-app-to-crowdsource-flight-data/
> which if coupled with ISRU self-rep and impossibility of
> perfect control implies that probability of escapes
> are pretty high.

I think the odds of perfect control -- in the sense meant above, too -- are, if not already impossible, getting lower with advances in technology and the spread of knowledge. (It wouldn't help if the former were concentrated in political and military elites. They might just accept their limits while still investing in finding solutions (which they're doing anyway; a strong reason to defund public military and enforcement research all together) and keeping their boot planted firmly on our necks for the duration.)

>> have to postulate that every last civilization develops total?
>> states to such a degree that there's no escape or rule-breakers?
>> or that so many have that it might as well be all.
>
> Right.

And that's my problem with many proposed Fermi solutions: the sound good as long as no civilization disobeys their assumptions. I know I'm not alone in this and not really stating anything new here.

Regards,

Dan
My science fiction short story "Residue" is now on Amazon at:

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the US
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From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Tue Mar 19 18:33:28 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 11:33:28 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Super-dense celestial bodies could be a new kind of planet
Message-ID: <1363718008.75978.YahooMailNeo@web126203.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>

http://www.nature.com/news/super-dense-celestial-bodies-could-be-a-new-kind-of-planet-1.12599
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From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Tue Mar 19 18:55:20 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 11:55:20 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Swallows may be evolving to dodge traffic
In-Reply-To: <CAJUeD7jkjEVz33vPu0MLJrx_c6uA+7amxSxQOR0J5GoEi6Fjgg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1363716914.88870.YahooMailNeo@web126204.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>
 <CAJUeD7jkjEVz33vPu0MLJrx_c6uA+7amxSxQOR0J5GoEi6Fjgg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <1363719320.4225.YahooMailNeo@web126206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>

On Tuesday, March 19, 2013 2:47 PM Alfio Puglisi <alfio.puglisi at gmail.com> wrote:
> How about human beings? Are people better at crossing the
> street, or driving without rear-ending someone else?

I don't see why there couldn't be some changes here, especially if some of this is genetic. Humans, however, have longer breeding cycles than swallows. And the effect is probably a lot smaller to begin with since humans usually don't run across big highways in the first place. :)

> In Europe traffic fatalities have been steadily decreasing in
> the last ten years:
> http://ec.europa.eu/transport/road_safety/specialist/statistics/index_en.htm
> this is usually attributed to better car technology, driver behaviour, etc.

I don't know the break down here and some of that might actually not lead to a kind of direct genetic change, such as humans evolving better means of directly avoiding accidents like faster reflexes or better sensory accuity, etc.

Regards,

Dan
?My science fiction short story "Residue" is now on Amazon:
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the US

?At least check out the new cover!
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From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Tue Mar 19 19:22:00 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 12:22:00 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Ultra-cryonics
In-Reply-To: <20130319151356.GX6172@leitl.org>
References: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <20130319103727.GV6172@leitl.org>
 <201303191317.r2JDHqu6011566@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <20130319133348.GL6172@leitl.org>
 <201303191445.r2JEjXpW009974@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <20130319151356.GX6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <1363720920.46269.YahooMailNeo@web126205.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>

On Tuesday, March 19, 2013 11:13 AM Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> Have you read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiasco_(novel)
> ?

David might not have, but I have. I wrote a review essay on his novels a few years ago:

http://www.objectivistliving.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=8513

I mention _Fiasco_ there.

Regards,

Dan
My science fiction short story "Residue" is now on Amazon:
?http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the US

Check out the new cover!
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From spike at rainier66.com  Tue Mar 19 19:57:42 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 12:57:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita>
Message-ID: <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of Andrew Mckee
Subject: Re: [ExI] cyprus banks

On Tue, 19 Mar 2013 11:35:04 +1200, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:


>>... Andrew I have a question from your comment.  The Greeks are trying to 
> instill austerity measures, which are highly unpopular.  One school of 
> thought holds that it will make the Greek economy worse.  What is the 
> alternative?

>...Errr, print more money just like the US has been doing lately?...

Greece is on the euro, so that is not one of their options.  Otherwise they
would have exercised it, surely.

>...but of course give it a lofty technical sounding name so that they don't
scare the woman and children and the other timid folk...

Ja, but that didn't work.  Even with their lofty names, that act has scared
women, children, timid and bold.

>>...  So what happens then?

>...Hang on a tic I'll give the magic 8 ball a shake, hmmm, it says 'Things
will be more or less like they are now, with the exception that the poor
will be slightly poorer, and the rich handsomely richer'

______________________________________________

Sounds like the robbery may have been foiled.  Usually some desperate prole
robs a bank.  This time some desperate banks robbed the proles.  But the
headlines are ambiguous.  Sounds to me like it was stopped?  Europeans, our
news agencies are puzzled on how to report this story with the usual
political spin, so they end up writing confusing and apparently
self-contradictory stories.  Did the Cypriot banks take the money or not?

spike



From spike at rainier66.com  Tue Mar 19 20:02:24 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 13:02:24 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Ultra-cryonics
In-Reply-To: <514847E6.1020504@aleph.se>
References: <201303190233.r2J2XlOE009254@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <514847E6.1020504@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <00c501ce24dc$acbb3c80$0631b580$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Subject: Re: [ExI] Ultra-cryonics

>...Short version: ultra-cryonics is probably not worth the effort because
it is hard and expensive to reach the outer system, and the preservation
benefits are offset by risk and radiation...
-- 
Anders Sandberg,
_______________________________________________

Ja.  Ignoring the added risk of inability to get you back, or even find you
out there, the added benefit of ultra-cryonics would be small, for the
reduced chemical action at the ultra-low temperatures still does nothing
about the radioactive decay of the brain tissues.  A long time ago we
discussed here the possibility of cryonics patients who know their demise is
eminent devouring carbon-14 depleted food.

spike



From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Mar 19 20:35:02 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 13:35:02 -0700
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
 <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita>
 <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTmwAj3=6epquTOydPUQCTYSGL+zcYnt-SJqVOgP67PWA@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 12:57 PM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
> Sounds to me like it was stopped?  Europeans, our
> news agencies are puzzled on how to report this story with the usual
> political spin, so they end up writing confusing and apparently
> self-contradictory stories.  Did the Cypriot banks take the money or not?

Not a European, but I'm seeing a clear view from the media:

* It was proposed to take the money.  The money couldn't actually be
taken until Parliament approved.

* Parliament said "HELL NO".

* Their President suggested exempting deposits under 20K euros, but
noted that might not be agreed to by the bailout negotiators.  Parliament
rejected the idea even with that exemption.

* The banks over there are closed until Thursday anyway.

* It is possible that a bank run may happen once the banks reopen
despite the rejection, since the mere suggestion of this quickly lead to
mass protests.  (The currency is confidence based, after all.)

* It has been suspected that their banks might be close to collapse.
Ironically, a bank run makes it more likely that they will collapse.


From painlord2k at libero.it  Tue Mar 19 22:27:33 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 23:27:33 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTmwAj3=6epquTOydPUQCTYSGL+zcYnt-SJqVOgP67PWA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita> <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNTmwAj3=6epquTOydPUQCTYSGL+zcYnt-SJqVOgP67PWA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5148E655.2030705@libero.it>

Il 19/03/2013 21:35, Adrian Tymes ha scritto:

> Not a European, but I'm seeing a clear view from the media:

> * It was proposed to take the money.  The money couldn't actually be
> taken until Parliament approved.

> * Parliament said "HELL NO".

The lawmakers said "Hell NO!!! If we approve this the people will want
hang us, the Russian Mafia will want hung us and our family, the people
will take their saving out of the banks, the Russians will take money
out of the banks and the banks and the government will be broken and
dead anyway.

> * Their President suggested exempting deposits under 20K euros, but
> noted that might not be agreed to by the bailout negotiators.  Parliament
> rejected the idea even with that exemption.

Because this would have broken the banks and the government anyway.
Their president wanted to shave his citizens because shaving too much
the Russian would have made them fly away with their money (like 10% is
not reason enough to fly away with the money).

BTW, the effect of not obtaining the Troika help could be the immediate
stop of the currency flow from the ECB to Cyprus banks. So they would go
broken immediately for lack of liquidity (not to talk about solvency).

> * The banks over there are closed until Thursday anyway.

> * It is possible that a bank run may happen once the banks reopen
> despite the rejection, since the mere suggestion of this quickly lead to
> mass protests.  (The currency is confidence based, after all.)

The only way to reestablish some confidence is to put in their
constitution, an article forbidding the government to put any tax on
bank accounts or any form of cash.
Tomorrow could be a good idea. Today a better idea.

> * It has been suspected that their banks might be close to collapse.
> Ironically, a bank run makes it more likely that they will collapse.

Russia (Gazprom) is offering a lot of money (comparable to the Troika
Packet) in exchange for the rights on the gas fields offshore Cyprus.
If I was Cyprus I would evaluate the offer very well, because this would
help them a lot with Turkey interference (Greece and EU are useless for
this).

Mirco



From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Mar 19 22:37:19 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 15:37:19 -0700
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <5148E655.2030705@libero.it>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
 <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita>
 <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNTmwAj3=6epquTOydPUQCTYSGL+zcYnt-SJqVOgP67PWA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5148E655.2030705@libero.it>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRbZPubhY9PGLNJ9WLxWNaNN5QdhLegGP77tZeFh0vVjA@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 3:27 PM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it> wrote:
> Il 19/03/2013 21:35, Adrian Tymes ha scritto:
>> * Parliament said "HELL NO".
>
> The lawmakers said "Hell NO!!! If we approve this the people will want
> hang us, the Russian Mafia will want hung us and our family, the people
> will take their saving out of the banks, the Russians will take money
> out of the banks and the banks and the government will be broken and
> dead anyway.

Some of them thought that far.  Some of them were purely protecting
their own bank accounts.

In general, when describing these things, it is better to be briefer and not
elaborate.  Elaborating on reasons inevitably means you describe the
average, or suspected average, condition - and doing much of that means
you are starting to say things that are not true of more and more specific
cases.

Especially if you assume motives.  It is apparently recorded data that
there was not a single yes vote, though there were abstentions along with
the no votes.

>> * It is possible that a bank run may happen once the banks reopen
>> despite the rejection, since the mere suggestion of this quickly lead to
>> mass protests.  (The currency is confidence based, after all.)
>
> The only way to reestablish some confidence is to put in their
> constitution, an article forbidding the government to put any tax on
> bank accounts or any form of cash.
> Tomorrow could be a good idea. Today a better idea.

If the constitution can be so easily changed, the article could be removed
when convenient just as easily.  Besides, the media report the shocking
thing - the proposal to tax deposits - and not so much the non-shocking
thing - sane countermeasures to make sure that doesn't happen - so it
wouldn't help prevent a bank run on Friday that much.


From spike at rainier66.com  Tue Mar 19 23:50:23 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 16:50:23 -0700
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRbZPubhY9PGLNJ9WLxWNaNN5QdhLegGP77tZeFh0vVjA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita> <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNTmwAj3=6epquTOydPUQCTYSGL+zcYnt-SJqVOgP67PWA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5148E655.2030705@libero.it>
 <CALAdGNRbZPubhY9PGLNJ9WLxWNaNN5QdhLegGP77tZeFh0vVjA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <001201ce24fc$863ebc60$92bc3520$@rainier66.com>



On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 3:27 PM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it>
wrote:
> Il 19/03/2013 21:35, Adrian Tymes ha scritto:

>> ... Parliament said "HELL NO".

>...Some of them thought that far.  Some of them were purely protecting
their own bank accounts.

Adrian I think you hit on a great idea: require US politicians to have all
their money in US banks.

 >...If we approve...the Russian Mafia will want hung us and our family...
Mirco

Mirco, this is an even better idea: require Russian mafia to have their
money in US banks.

spike



From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Mar 20 00:08:21 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 17:08:21 -0700
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <001201ce24fc$863ebc60$92bc3520$@rainier66.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
 <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita>
 <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNTmwAj3=6epquTOydPUQCTYSGL+zcYnt-SJqVOgP67PWA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5148E655.2030705@libero.it>
 <CALAdGNRbZPubhY9PGLNJ9WLxWNaNN5QdhLegGP77tZeFh0vVjA@mail.gmail.com>
 <001201ce24fc$863ebc60$92bc3520$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNT8sw-urtZh2Vw8LDpz0eZWJPOdw__ZaV2tPX2M1b0MbQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 4:50 PM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
> Adrian I think you hit on a great idea: require US politicians to have all
> their money in US banks.

Nah.  US politicos are experienced enough to write exceptions for their
own accounts.


From alfio.puglisi at gmail.com  Tue Mar 19 18:47:48 2013
From: alfio.puglisi at gmail.com (Alfio Puglisi)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 19:47:48 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Swallows may be evolving to dodge traffic
In-Reply-To: <1363716914.88870.YahooMailNeo@web126204.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>
References: <1363716914.88870.YahooMailNeo@web126204.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAJUeD7jkjEVz33vPu0MLJrx_c6uA+7amxSxQOR0J5GoEi6Fjgg@mail.gmail.com>

How about human beings? Are people better at crossing the street, or
driving without rear-ending someone else?
In Europe traffic fatalities have been steadily decreasing in the last
ten years:
http://ec.europa.eu/transport/road_safety/specialist/statistics/index_en.htm
this is usually attributed to better car technology, driver behaviour, etc.
Alfio

On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 7:15 PM, Dan <dan_ust at yahoo.com> wrote:
> http://www.nature.com/news/swallows-may-be-evolving-to-dodge-traffic-1.12614
>
> The next step might be to discover if there's been a shift in the genes in
> the population.
>
> Regards,
>
> Dan
>  My science fiction short story "Residue" is now on Amazon:
>
> http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00BS3T0RM for the US
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>


From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Mar 19 20:36:05 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 19 Mar 2013 20:36:05 +0000
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
 <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita>
 <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgGa4jhONE6gwTvNEGKJoe3oVcx4pO4kW=M9RbGX8svPA@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 7:57 PM, spike wrote:
> Sounds like the robbery may have been foiled.  Usually some desperate prole
> robs a bank.  This time some desperate banks robbed the proles.  But the
> headlines are ambiguous.  Sounds to me like it was stopped?  Europeans, our
> news agencies are puzzled on how to report this story with the usual
> political spin, so they end up writing confusing and apparently
> self-contradictory stories.  Did the Cypriot banks take the money or not?
>
>

The Cyprus parliament voted to reject the deal.

ECB responded that it would provide "liquidity within existing rules."
(Whatever that means).

Situation still surrounded by a cloud of speculation.

BillK


From anders at aleph.se  Wed Mar 20 09:38:03 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2013 09:38:03 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Swallows may be evolving to dodge traffic
In-Reply-To: <CAJUeD7jkjEVz33vPu0MLJrx_c6uA+7amxSxQOR0J5GoEi6Fjgg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1363716914.88870.YahooMailNeo@web126204.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>
 <CAJUeD7jkjEVz33vPu0MLJrx_c6uA+7amxSxQOR0J5GoEi6Fjgg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5149837B.1030409@aleph.se>

On 19/03/2013 18:47, Alfio Puglisi wrote:
> How about human beings? Are people better at crossing the street, or
> driving without rear-ending someone else?
Yes, but this is cultural evolution rather than biological evolution. 
Looking at the traffic fatalities data shows a rapid decline on a 
timespan of a decade, much less than a human generation time.

Suppose you have a dominant gene variant A which gives a fitness 
advantage h over the normal allele a, which we assumes has fitness 1. A 
has frequency f. So in the next generation (assuming random mating) the 
frequency will be f(1+h)/[f(1+h) + (1-f)] = f (1+h)/(fh+1). Traffic 
mortality is responsible for 2% of all deaths globally, so if we for the 
sake of argument assume a third of that turns into a fitness advantage 
thanks to A (a huge advantage - if you have this allele you will not be 
killed by a car before reproductive age) h will be 0.0066. If f is near 
zero the frequency will increase by a factor of 1.0066 every generation 
- it will take about a hundred generation to become dominant.

In practice you can get faster adaptation if there are multiple traits 
that can be affected, of if you have small populations.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From andymck35 at gmail.com  Wed Mar 20 11:19:08 2013
From: andymck35 at gmail.com (Andrew Mckee)
Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2013 23:19:08 +1200
Subject: [ExI] predictable futures - was cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <20130319095655.GR6172@leitl.org>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <20130318105054.GG6172@leitl.org>
 <op.wt6mego00wog37@nikita> <20130319095655.GR6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <op.wt8sd7j50wog37@nikita>

On Tue, 19 Mar 2013 21:56:55 +1200, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 07:14:30PM +1200, Andrew Mckee wrote:

>> Why does it make a difference?
>
> Because predictions have to be falsifyable.

Not sure I follow you, are you suggesting that Mr Vinges prediction is falsifiable and Mr Kurzweils is not?


> http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/WER2.html
>
> "Progress in hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater-than-human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles Platt has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making claims like this for thirty years. Just so I'm not guilty of a relative-time ambiguity, let me be more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.)
> Now in 2003, I still think this time range statement is reasonable."
>
> A decade later, less than 17 years remains from that
> point. Wonder whether his assessment hasn't changed
> meanwhile.

It would be interesting to know since a lot has changed in nearly two decades, maybe he could be persuaded to write an update some time.

Still regardless of when or if the Singularity happens, I sure hope there is plenty of plan B activity going on that someday soonish enables us all to get to see that big shiny beautiful future.




From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Mar 20 10:56:38 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2013 11:56:38 +0100
Subject: [ExI] predictable futures - was cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <op.wt8sd7j50wog37@nikita>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <20130318105054.GG6172@leitl.org>
 <op.wt6mego00wog37@nikita> <20130319095655.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <op.wt8sd7j50wog37@nikita>
Message-ID: <20130320105638.GZ6172@leitl.org>

On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 11:19:08PM +1200, Andrew Mckee wrote:
> On Tue, 19 Mar 2013 21:56:55 +1200, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>
>> On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 07:14:30PM +1200, Andrew Mckee wrote:
>
>>> Why does it make a difference?
>>
>> Because predictions have to be falsifyable.
>
> Not sure I follow you, are you suggesting that Mr Vinges prediction is falsifiable and Mr Kurzweils is not?

No, any prediction needs to have a milestone track
and a fixed interval, to validate or falsify the prediction.

Vinge's is easier to falsify or validate, given that
it is scheduled to happen sooner.


From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Mar 20 11:18:48 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2013 11:18:48 +0000
Subject: [ExI] predictable futures - was cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <op.wt8sd7j50wog37@nikita>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <20130318105054.GG6172@leitl.org>
 <op.wt6mego00wog37@nikita> <20130319095655.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <op.wt8sd7j50wog37@nikita>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhh2xf4kaHS2eB+p2EXUFWg3OO6h4mwhBBRFTUaHwvm8g@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 11:19 AM, Andrew Mckee wrote:
> It would be interesting to know since a lot has changed in nearly two
> decades, maybe he could be persuaded to write an update some time.
>
> Still regardless of when or if the Singularity happens, I sure hope there is
> plenty of plan B activity going on that someday soonish enables us all to
> get to see that big shiny beautiful future.
>


Vinge gave a speech at the Singularity Summit in Sep 2012 which
reviewed his forecast.
Transcript here:
<https://docs.google.com/document/d/1W7Vs8e3MNwjU_1ZZZqmq0O-dFKCwD4VRyww-qOvDdRU/pub>

He is still sticking with 2030, but perhaps with a widening of scope.
He has spent a lot of time discussing that the Singularity might not
happen, so he is aware of other possibilities.

The original paper did not *just* say that a super computer would
become intelligent and surpass humans by 2030.
There are five suggestions as to how the Singularity might be reached
and all may happen.

1. Computer based path to AGI
Classical Artificial intelligence

2. Intelligence Amplification

3. Digital Gaia
Devices in all things
Reality would wake up

4. Group Minds
the internet, data and algorithms, plus hundred of millions of humans

5. Biomedical enhancement of human cognition

------------------------------


So he is now talking about a wide range of options as to how the
Singularity might happen.


BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Mar 20 11:38:47 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2013 12:38:47 +0100
Subject: [ExI] predictable futures - was cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhh2xf4kaHS2eB+p2EXUFWg3OO6h4mwhBBRFTUaHwvm8g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <20130318105054.GG6172@leitl.org>
 <op.wt6mego00wog37@nikita> <20130319095655.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <op.wt8sd7j50wog37@nikita>
 <CAL_armhh2xf4kaHS2eB+p2EXUFWg3OO6h4mwhBBRFTUaHwvm8g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20130320113847.GB6172@leitl.org>

On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 11:18:48AM +0000, BillK wrote:

> Vinge gave a speech at the Singularity Summit in Sep 2012 which
> reviewed his forecast.
> Transcript here:
> <https://docs.google.com/document/d/1W7Vs8e3MNwjU_1ZZZqmq0O-dFKCwD4VRyww-qOvDdRU/pub>

I found that talk transcript rather disappointing. I do not share his optimism,
and I think his assessment of several areas are jarringly wrong.


From painlord2k at libero.it  Wed Mar 20 15:46:28 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2013 16:46:28 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRbZPubhY9PGLNJ9WLxWNaNN5QdhLegGP77tZeFh0vVjA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita> <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNTmwAj3=6epquTOydPUQCTYSGL+zcYnt-SJqVOgP67PWA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5148E655.2030705@libero.it>
 <CALAdGNRbZPubhY9PGLNJ9WLxWNaNN5QdhLegGP77tZeFh0vVjA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5149D9D4.2070303@libero.it>

Il 19/03/2013 23:37, Adrian Tymes ha scritto:
> On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 3:27 PM, Mirco Romanato
> <painlord2k at libero.it> wrote:
>> Il 19/03/2013 21:35, Adrian Tymes ha scritto:
>>> * Parliament said "HELL NO".
>> 
>> The lawmakers said "Hell NO!!! If we approve this the people will
>> want hang us, the Russian Mafia will want hung us and our family,
>> the people will take their saving out of the banks, the Russians
>> will take money out of the banks and the banks and the government
>> will be broken and dead anyway.
> 
> Some of them thought that far.  Some of them were purely protecting 
> their own bank accounts.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/3/19_Sinclair_-_Cyprus_Disaster_Is_Much_Bigger_Than_Being_Reported.html

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/3/18_Sinclair_-_All_Hell_Is_Breaking_Loose_After_Cyprus_Catastrophe.html

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/3/20_Sinclair_-_The_Next_Danger_After_Putin_Crushes_IMF_In_Cyprus.html

>> The only way to reestablish some confidence is to put in their 
>> constitution, an article forbidding the government to put any tax
>> on bank accounts or any form of cash. Tomorrow could be a good
>> idea. Today a better idea.

> If the constitution can be so easily changed, the article could be
> removed when convenient just as easily.  Besides, the media report
> the shocking thing - the proposal to tax deposits - and not so much
> the non-shocking thing - sane countermeasures to make sure that
> doesn't happen - so it wouldn't help prevent a bank run on Friday
> that much.

If the Constitution is too easy to change, they could arrange to change
the constitution so to change the specific article there would be the
need of a super-majority.

Anyway, just the start of this move would raise confidence.
Obviously, as the move stop, the confidence would die.

Mirco


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Wed Mar 20 16:52:28 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2013 17:52:28 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <20130319095655.GR6172@leitl.org>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
 <20130318105054.GG6172@leitl.org> <op.wt6mego00wog37@nikita>
 <20130319095655.GR6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303201736030.25089@tau.ceti.pl>

On Tue, 19 Mar 2013, Eugen Leitl wrote:

[...]
> http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/WER2.html
> 
> "Progress in hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last 
> few decades. Based on this trend, I believe that the creation of 
> greater-than-human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. 
> (Charles Platt has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making 
> claims like this for thirty years. Just so I'm not guilty of a 
> relative-time ambiguity, let me be more specific: I'll be surprised if 
> this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.) Now in 2003, I still think 
> this time range statement is reasonable."
> 
> A decade later, less than 17 years remains from that
> point. Wonder whether his assessment hasn't changed 
> meanwhile. 

Oh. I think hardware was a king in 1940-s, after that software became a 
king. I mean, doing new functionality was relegated to software, and 
hardware was more and more expected to just execute software fast(er) and 
reliable(r).

Therefore exciting oneself with great developments in hardware domain 
(true, there is amazing amount of Nobel-level thinking, I admit) is kind 
of like boasting about faster and faster cars, not telling there is not so 
many places to drive them to.

When one looks at software, I might be biased but if there is any kind of 
amazingly steady curve, I wouldn't say it is upwards.

So unless you, predictators reading my words :-), want to build 
Singularity out of transistors (doomed by design, too many elements, 
requires higher level Singularity to build it), you should rather think of 
other ways. Just MHO.

For a start, few words from Niklaus Wirth:

- "Reliable and transparent programs are usually not in the interest of 
  the designer."

- "Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster."

[

http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Niklaus_Wirth

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niklaus_Wirth

]

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Mar 20 17:09:18 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2013 18:09:18 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303201736030.25089@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <20130318105054.GG6172@leitl.org>
 <op.wt6mego00wog37@nikita> <20130319095655.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303201736030.25089@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <20130320170917.GR6172@leitl.org>

On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 05:52:28PM +0100, Tomasz Rola wrote:

> Oh. I think hardware was a king in 1940-s, after that software became a 

Hard tasks remain computation-limited, and hardware limits the amount
of computation. This is the reason why http://top500.org sees
to much attention (even though LINPACK is a crappy, biased
benchmark -- the only way to make sure is run your own problem).

> king. I mean, doing new functionality was relegated to software, and 
> hardware was more and more expected to just execute software fast(er) and 
> reliable(r).

This might have happened in some alternative universe, but not in
this universe.
 
> Therefore exciting oneself with great developments in hardware domain 
> (true, there is amazing amount of Nobel-level thinking, I admit) is kind 
> of like boasting about faster and faster cars, not telling there is not so 
> many places to drive them to.

If you want to reach the stars in nogeological times you need
to do better than chemical rockets.
 
> When one looks at software, I might be biased but if there is any kind of 
> amazingly steady curve, I wouldn't say it is upwards.

There is no fundamental progress in software. The progress in hardware has
recently been limited, especially since Moore has ended.
 
> So unless you, predictators reading my words :-), want to build 
> Singularity out of transistors (doomed by design, too many elements, 

Transistors would do fine, but we've ran into scale limits.

> requires higher level Singularity to build it), you should rather think of 
> other ways. Just MHO.
> 
> For a start, few words from Niklaus Wirth:
> 
> - "Reliable and transparent programs are usually not in the interest of 
>   the designer."
> 
> - "Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster."

There is no fundamental difference between hardware and software.
At the hight end there's no software, only hardware, and its state.



From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Mar 20 17:33:07 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2013 10:33:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI]  Moore's Law
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRRj3zezmJVjjFnffEJzgw7ddJD_74M65a8kgZ2B+cRzA@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 10:09 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> There is no fundamental progress in software. The progress in hardware has
> recently been limited, especially since Moore has ended.

The data I've seen suggests that Moore's Law continues through the
present day - at least for actually released hardware.  There is no
end of reasons to believe that the next hardware won't quite keep up
the improvement, that we have reached fundamental physical limits
or the like - and yet, the hardware keeps improving, maintaining its
net overall increase pace by other means.  Often this is done by
incorporating design tricks that are not technically impacted by said
physical limits.  For instance, even if we were at the limit for the
minimum number of atoms one could use for memory, there is now
research in encoding bits into individual electrons, allowing for
multiple bits per atom...and there may be ways to do multiple bits
per electron.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law has data that shows it
continued at least through 2011.  So if Moore's Law has ended, one
would need to show that with data from 2011-2013,..and as late
1990s data from that graph shows, the long-term progress continues
even if there are slowdowns for a few years.

So - I'd say the data rather firmly shows that Moore's Law has not
ended.


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Wed Mar 20 19:05:02 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2013 20:05:02 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <5149D9D4.2070303@libero.it>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
 <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com> <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita>
 <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNTmwAj3=6epquTOydPUQCTYSGL+zcYnt-SJqVOgP67PWA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5148E655.2030705@libero.it>
 <CALAdGNRbZPubhY9PGLNJ9WLxWNaNN5QdhLegGP77tZeFh0vVjA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5149D9D4.2070303@libero.it>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303201942100.25089@tau.ceti.pl>

On Wed, 20 Mar 2013, Mirco Romanato wrote:

[...]
> http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/3/19_Sinclair_-_Cyprus_Disaster_Is_Much_Bigger_Than_Being_Reported.html
> 
> http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/3/18_Sinclair_-_All_Hell_Is_Breaking_Loose_After_Cyprus_Catastrophe.html
> 
> http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/3/20_Sinclair_-_The_Next_Danger_After_Putin_Crushes_IMF_In_Cyprus.html

Those articles may be right but there are some suppositions I find a 
little hard to believe, like:

"The people at the IMF, which have spearheaded this disaster, never 
expected the ???Cyprus Solution??? to blow up in their face the way it 
has...."

In other words, they wanted to take some money but were ignorant about who 
they are taking them from? Maybe IMF should be put in hands of some 
dropouts, they couldn't have done it worse - and, playing lots of 
computer games, dropouts should know a lot more about Russian mafia.

Also, the Russians I heard about would have covered their back and own 
a country into which they put such enormous heap of paper. The "owning" 
would be done in such a way that perhaps politicians involved would not 
realize it fully, but while playing as pawns in Russian game they would 
consider themselves figures in play of their own. Yes, things like this 
happen(ed).

On the contrary, Russians presented in articles seem to have unbelievable 
faith in democracy, banking systems, constitutions, regulations etc. 
Especially KGB-originated Russians should know better, since those are 
just words whose meanings could be changed on as needed basis.

Oh, and BTW, why didn't they keep their money a bit closer, like... in 
Russia? They seem to rule there.

So I liked the articles as presenting things from another angle, but I 
don't buy it as total, finished explanation.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **

From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Mar 20 20:41:07 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2013 21:41:07 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Moore's Law
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRRj3zezmJVjjFnffEJzgw7ddJD_74M65a8kgZ2B+cRzA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CALAdGNRRj3zezmJVjjFnffEJzgw7ddJD_74M65a8kgZ2B+cRzA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20130320204107.GS6172@leitl.org>

On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 10:33:07AM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:
> On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 10:09 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> > There is no fundamental progress in software. The progress in hardware has
> > recently been limited, especially since Moore has ended.
> 
> The data I've seen suggests that Moore's Law continues through the

http://www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/1388-scariest-graph-i-ve-seen-recently.html

Published on 07-01-2012 02:00 PM

"This shows the cost for a given piece of functionality (namely a million gates) in the current process generation and looking out to 20nm and 14nm. It is flat (actually perhaps getting worse). This might not matter too much for Intel's server business since those have such high margins that they can probably live with a price that doesn't come down as much as it has done historically. And they can make real money by putting more and more onto a chip. But it is terrible for businesses like mobile computing that don't live on the bleeding edge of the maximum number of transistors on a chip. If you are not filling up your 28nm die and a 20nm die costs just the same (and is much harder to design) why bother? Just design a bigger 28nm die (there may be some power savings but even that is dubious since leakage is typically an increasing challenge).

If this graph remains the case, then Moore's Law carries on in the technical sense that you can put twice as many transistors on your chip if you can think of something clever to do with them and can find a way to keep enough of them powered on. But it means there is no longer an economic driver to move to a new process unless you have run out of space on the old one.
"

> present day - at least for actually released hardware.  There is no

Yeah, I like to call things before most people notice.

> end of reasons to believe that the next hardware won't quite keep up
> the improvement, that we have reached fundamental physical limits

Not fundamental physical limits. Economic limits, since Moore is
about *affordable* transistors. 

> or the like - and yet, the hardware keeps improving, maintaining its

It does not seem you've been looking at architecture trends even while
Moore was on-track. 

> net overall increase pace by other means.  Often this is done by
> incorporating design tricks that are not technically impacted by said

My point is that the architecture changes had no imagination. It didn't
have to, while the amount of widgets quadrupled. Now, there's an 
incentive to rearrange the real estate in novel ways.

> physical limits.  For instance, even if we were at the limit for the
> minimum number of atoms one could use for memory, there is now
> research in encoding bits into individual electrons, allowing for

We're not talking research, which is 20-30 years away from
production. We're talking about production.

> multiple bits per atom...and there may be ways to do multiple bits
> per electron.

Nope. You need about nm^3 for an addressable bit.
 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law has data that shows it
> continued at least through 2011.  So if Moore's Law has ended, one

We've got March of 2013. 2011 is ancient history.

> would need to show that with data from 2011-2013,..and as late

You'll see the saturation setting in over the next 2-5 years.
It will be completely obvious, in the hindsight.

> 1990s data from that graph shows, the long-term progress continues
> even if there are slowdowns for a few years.
> 
> So - I'd say the data rather firmly shows that Moore's Law has not
> ended.

I say rather firmly that you haven't been been looking at the data.


From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Mar 20 20:59:49 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2013 13:59:49 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Moore's Law
In-Reply-To: <20130320204107.GS6172@leitl.org>
References: <CALAdGNRRj3zezmJVjjFnffEJzgw7ddJD_74M65a8kgZ2B+cRzA@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130320204107.GS6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSR7g4oiRadR_-CPKPzgKXLN0nwUYBpCVxdywqDa9yS1w@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 1:41 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 10:33:07AM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:
>> On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 10:09 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>> > There is no fundamental progress in software. The progress in hardware has
>> > recently been limited, especially since Moore has ended.
>>
>> The data I've seen suggests that Moore's Law continues through the
>
> http://www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/1388-scariest-graph-i-ve-seen-recently.html

I have seen such graphs before.  It often turns out that they get their data
by comparing current prices - e.g., the current price of older tech, that has
had years put into refining it and getting the cost down, vs. the current
price of newer tech, that is much fresher from the lab.  I don't see anything
in the article that suggests this is not the case.

This is a classic argument against any new solar tech, with the implicit
assumption that there won't be successful R&D to lower the costs - or
that costs can come down with larger manufacturing blocks - and
therefore that solar can never become cost-competitive with fossil fuels.

>> present day - at least for actually released hardware.  There is no
>
> Yeah, I like to call things before most people notice.

So have a lot of others who said Moore's Law was dead, over the
past few decades.

> Nope. You need about nm^3 for an addressable bit.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spintronics suggests one can make an
addressable bit in less size than that.  Or effectively so:
multiple bits per atom.

>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law has data that shows it
>> continued at least through 2011.  So if Moore's Law has ended, one
>
> We've got March of 2013. 2011 is ancient history.

Not so much.  The late-'90s dip lasted longer than 2 years.

> I say rather firmly that you haven't been been looking at the data.

And I say you are looking at a smaller subset of the data than is
relevant, and seeing a pattern that more data casts doubt upon.


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Wed Mar 20 21:46:49 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2013 22:46:49 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <20130320170917.GR6172@leitl.org>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
 <20130318105054.GG6172@leitl.org> <op.wt6mego00wog37@nikita>
 <20130319095655.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303201736030.25089@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20130320170917.GR6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303202115130.25089@tau.ceti.pl>

On Wed, 20 Mar 2013, Eugen Leitl wrote:

> On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 05:52:28PM +0100, Tomasz Rola wrote:
> 
> > Oh. I think hardware was a king in 1940-s, after that software became a 
> 
> Hard tasks remain computation-limited, and hardware limits the amount
> of computation. This is the reason why http://top500.org sees
> to much attention (even though LINPACK is a crappy, biased
> benchmark -- the only way to make sure is run your own problem).

The top500 is all about (clockspeed * cores) and MIPS/FLOPS, not new 
functionality. Some parts of software may be helped by functionality 
encoded in hardware (plus recompilation/patching), but those parts of 
hardware become obsoleted by introduction of another software - like new 
a/v codecs.

Software rules. Software dictates what functionality will be introduced in 
new hardware. Windows is implemented in software. Not even in rom. (Patent 
hyenas - there is prior art, new os could have been introduced to Amiga 
computers by changing rom chips on a mainboard).

Even when there are changes introduced into hardware, they are always 
trying to minimize negative (like noncompatibility) impact on software.

> > king. I mean, doing new functionality was relegated to software, and 
> > hardware was more and more expected to just execute software fast(er) and 
> > reliable(r).
> 
> This might have happened in some alternative universe, but not in
> this universe.

Actually, the way I see it, exactly this happens in our universe.

As far as I would like, we don't live in my version of alternative 
universe. This one is acceptable (barely, at least if we stick to 
technical side). But if we were in my version, there would have been 
software-defined cpus and other elements, gpu would have been a piece of 
fpga or something similar. Things like this are, perhaps, in the labs. But 
I don't see them in my shops. Yes I know current fpgas are slow and so on, 
but certainly they could have been sped up a little and made more 
practical, if there was enough demand. A computer built on 
software-definable elements is not technical impossibility, but the state 
of business is such that I may not see it before I am all grey and 
indifferent. Alternatively, I may ecke out some money and build it myself.

(So vote for Rola Universe :-), or even better, give me loads of money to 
build universal reconstructor and I promise to fraud as much as I can).

> > Therefore exciting oneself with great developments in hardware domain 
> > (true, there is amazing amount of Nobel-level thinking, I admit) is kind 
> > of like boasting about faster and faster cars, not telling there is not so 
> > many places to drive them to.
> 
> If you want to reach the stars in nogeological times you need
> to do better than chemical rockets.

We are not going to have even this, I'm afraid. But this is a different 
subject from computing hardware. And I agree on this one.

> > When one looks at software, I might be biased but if there is any kind of 
> > amazingly steady curve, I wouldn't say it is upwards.
> 
> There is no fundamental progress in software. The progress in hardware has
> recently been limited, especially since Moore has ended.

Exactly. And it should be progress in software, not in hardware, that 
should receive some positive stimulation, rather than promotion of trash 
programming languages whose names start on "J", team work and other BS.

> > So unless you, predictators reading my words :-), want to build 
> > Singularity out of transistors (doomed by design, too many elements, 
> 
> Transistors would do fine, but we've ran into scale limits.

One can make a cpu with some transistors and some microcode. Or one can 
make a cpu with many more transistors, and nonflexible. Building 
Singularity out of transistors only is to me not wiser than building 
all-mechanical 64-bit Pentium with all-mechanical gigabyte of ram.

Truly, there is problem of scaling.

> There is no fundamental difference between hardware and software.
> At the hight end there's no software, only hardware, and its state.

Hardware is fixed, AFAIK. Changing state can help a bit, to some degree. 
The more software, the more flexibility. I am not so much concerned about 
"height" and the like - I am just happy if I can change ways of my machine 
by typing in some text and calling gcc or sbcl on it. I could have 
experimented a bit, like building PDP-10/Lisp Machine (they are two _very_ 
different and not connected designs) clone out of soft-computer, if I had 
one. And it would do me safer browsing and safer banking, with attention 
of script kiddas turned toward screwing Pentium owners (soon to be ARM 
owners). As I said, this universe can do, I can emulate whatever machine I 
can fit on my box.

I am not sure if we should dispute much about it all. I wanted just to 
point out, that some comments about incredible hardware progress, while 
true, do not touch a clue of the problem at all. What is great hardware 
good for, if all we run on it is Windows, sometimes Linux? The Singularity 
is not going to be hardware based, it will be software run on some off the 
shelf cpu(s). So, there is no such software, we only boast about 
unprecedented hardware. We could as well boast about unprecedented colors 
of computer chassis. Irrelevant, without software, which nobody seems to 
say or aknowledge, AFAIK.

It doesn't matter if hardware is 10e3 or 10e6 times faster than x years 
ago. Building any prophecies on such facts is useless. And clueless. 
Singularity will be software. It may, some time later, choose to make it's 
own hardware, possibly soft-definable. But it will not come to existence 
just because someone pushes the clock up to petahertz and memory to 
exabyte.

Now, I imagine someone arguing that with such great hardware, certainly 
somebody will write a software in no blink time. However, I disagree.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Mar 21 14:23:41 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 21 Mar 2013 15:23:41 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Moore's Law
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNSR7g4oiRadR_-CPKPzgKXLN0nwUYBpCVxdywqDa9yS1w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CALAdGNRRj3zezmJVjjFnffEJzgw7ddJD_74M65a8kgZ2B+cRzA@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130320204107.GS6172@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNSR7g4oiRadR_-CPKPzgKXLN0nwUYBpCVxdywqDa9yS1w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20130321142341.GK6172@leitl.org>

On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 01:59:49PM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:

> > http://www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/1388-scariest-graph-i-ve-seen-recently.html
> 
> I have seen such graphs before.  It often turns out that they get their data

Great; I haven't, and not for a lack of looking. I've also received
several independent confirmation that we've entered difficult terrain,
so I think that was not a false blip.

> by comparing current prices - e.g., the current price of older tech, that has
> had years put into refining it and getting the cost down, vs. the current
> price of newer tech, that is much fresher from the lab.  I don't see anything
> in the article that suggests this is not the case.
> 
> This is a classic argument against any new solar tech, with the implicit
> assumption that there won't be successful R&D to lower the costs - or
> that costs can come down with larger manufacturing blocks - and
> therefore that solar can never become cost-competitive with fossil fuels.
> 
> >> present day - at least for actually released hardware.  There is no
> >
> > Yeah, I like to call things before most people notice.
> 
> So have a lot of others who said Moore's Law was dead, over the
> past few decades.

You might notice that until the end of the last year 
I haven't. 
 
> > Nope. You need about nm^3 for an addressable bit.
> 
> en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spintronics suggests one can make an
> addressable bit in less size than that.  Or effectively so:
> multiple bits per atom.

How are you going to read out that state? How are you going
to power the system, and cool it? It's pretty easy to tweak
a nitrogen vacancy in diamond, but unfortunately you need
a roomfull of equipment for that. Do try to build an array
of bits each less than 1 nm across, using full atomic
detail. No longer plenty of room at that particular bottom.
 
> >> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law has data that shows it
> >> continued at least through 2011.  So if Moore's Law has ended, one
> >
> > We've got March of 2013. 2011 is ancient history.
> 
> Not so much.  The late-'90s dip lasted longer than 2 years.

Look, if you're not buying it, I don't particularly care.
It definitely does influence my model of how the next couple
decades will look like. See 
http://lp-hp.com/blog/2012/08/09/the-easy-stuff-is-over/
for another person's view on the situation.
 
> > I say rather firmly that you haven't been been looking at the data.
> 
> And I say you are looking at a smaller subset of the data than is
> relevant, and seeing a pattern that more data casts doubt upon.

It's okay to be contrarian, if you're being intelligently so.
Feel free to shoot us data which show that the price scaling
will continue. It would be good news, since it would buy us
a few more doublings at constant time.

However, I fear you won't be able to find data to cheer me up.


From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Mar 21 16:21:48 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 21 Mar 2013 17:21:48 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303202115130.25089@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <20130318105054.GG6172@leitl.org>
 <op.wt6mego00wog37@nikita> <20130319095655.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303201736030.25089@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20130320170917.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303202115130.25089@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <20130321162148.GP6172@leitl.org>

On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 10:46:49PM +0100, Tomasz Rola wrote:

> The top500 is all about (clockspeed * cores) and MIPS/FLOPS, not new 
> functionality. Some parts of software may be helped by functionality 

The availability of computational resources constrains new functionality
that can be implemented in terms of their primitives. For many problem
classes, all things being equal, kilonode < meganode < giganode < teranode.

Again, I'm not very happy with the Top500 list since LINPACK is not a
particularly good metric for problems I care about.

> encoded in hardware (plus recompilation/patching), but those parts of 
> hardware become obsoleted by introduction of another software - like new 
> a/v codecs.

Particularly codecs are a good example that is hardware-limited.
What is possible is limited by the computational resources
available. Look at the realtime demos on
http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/GTC-2013-Techdemos-zeigen-Zukunft-der-Echtzeit-Computergrafik-1826822.html
-- the only reason that these are realtime is because
the new hardware takes less time to render basic physics.
 
> Software rules. Software dictates what functionality will be introduced in 
> new hardware. Windows is implemented in software. Not even in rom. (Patent 

My core functionality is system size and execution speed,
and more advanced software makes this *slower*. At the high end,
where we're looking at refresh rate on a computational volume,
there is no software *at all*. Provably so. It's all state,
evolving, using nearest-neighbors interaction of the
hardware primitives, as represented by logic occupying the
volume voxels.

> hyenas - there is prior art, new os could have been introduced to Amiga 
> computers by changing rom chips on a mainboard).
> 
> Even when there are changes introduced into hardware, they are always 
> trying to minimize negative (like noncompatibility) impact on software.

We're not communicating very well here, I think.
 
> > > king. I mean, doing new functionality was relegated to software, and 
> > > hardware was more and more expected to just execute software fast(er) and 
> > > reliable(r).
> > 
> > This might have happened in some alternative universe, but not in
> > this universe.
> 
> Actually, the way I see it, exactly this happens in our universe.
> 
> As far as I would like, we don't live in my version of alternative 
> universe. This one is acceptable (barely, at least if we stick to 
> technical side). But if we were in my version, there would have been 
> software-defined cpus and other elements, gpu would have been a piece of 

Yes, we agree. Only you're calling state software here, which is not
a good description. An optimal system does not have a static mapping,
where you compile state into a static blob, but it has a blob of state
that is evolving onboard.

> fpga or something similar. Things like this are, perhaps, in the labs. But 
> I don't see them in my shops. Yes I know current fpgas are slow and so on, 

The Parallella's dual ARM cores are just vestigal appendices on the
DSP array, and the FPGA (Zynq 7020). They're auxiliary, all the heavy
lifting is done elsewhere.

> but certainly they could have been sped up a little and made more 
> practical, if there was enough demand. A computer built on 
> software-definable elements is not technical impossibility, but the state 
> of business is such that I may not see it before I am all grey and 
> indifferent. Alternatively, I may ecke out some money and build it myself.

Well, I'm already all grey and indifferent, or nearly there ;)
 
> (So vote for Rola Universe :-), or even better, give me loads of money to 
> build universal reconstructor and I promise to fraud as much as I can).
> 
> > > Therefore exciting oneself with great developments in hardware domain 
> > > (true, there is amazing amount of Nobel-level thinking, I admit) is kind 
> > > of like boasting about faster and faster cars, not telling there is not so 
> > > many places to drive them to.
> > 
> > If you want to reach the stars in nogeological times you need
> > to do better than chemical rockets.
> 
> We are not going to have even this, I'm afraid. But this is a different 
> subject from computing hardware. And I agree on this one.

Not a different subject, since a metaphor.
 
> > > When one looks at software, I might be biased but if there is any kind of 
> > > amazingly steady curve, I wouldn't say it is upwards.
> > 
> > There is no fundamental progress in software. The progress in hardware has
> > recently been limited, especially since Moore has ended.
> 
> Exactly. And it should be progress in software, not in hardware, that 

I see no progress in software, as long as developing means human
primates manually massaging data, and jabbering in meetings.
For instance, one of our project is converting images to
chemical structures. What strikes you about that problem?
Why, it's Turing-complete. If you want to do it without
human intervention, which renders the whole idea moot, you
need to imbue the system with chemical common sense. Can
a developer encode that there explictly? Hell, no. 

> should receive some positive stimulation, rather than promotion of trash 
> programming languages whose names start on "J", team work and other BS.

I'm happy I don't have to deal with that BS.
 
> > > So unless you, predictators reading my words :-), want to build 
> > > Singularity out of transistors (doomed by design, too many elements, 
> > 
> > Transistors would do fine, but we've ran into scale limits.
> 
> One can make a cpu with some transistors and some microcode. Or one can 

No, because executing microcode bloats your circuitry and is only
doing macros of primitives. If you're looking at solving problems
which must be done in 5-10 gate delays, tops, then software
is not a solution. It's a problem. A ns might be 30 cm long,
but we're dealing with ps and lower now.

> make a cpu with many more transistors, and nonflexible. Building 
> Singularity out of transistors only is to me not wiser than building 
> all-mechanical 64-bit Pentium with all-mechanical gigabyte of ram.

Of course there are far more optimal ways to do computation. 
My point is that 2d or 3d arrays of transistors would be 
sufficient, if we could continue to scale them. Which we
can't, so the issue is moot. We'll buy us some time with
3d stacking and architectural redesigns, but that is no
longer a huge playground.
 
> Truly, there is problem of scaling.
> 
> > There is no fundamental difference between hardware and software.
> > At the hight end there's no software, only hardware, and its state.
> 
> Hardware is fixed, AFAIK. Changing state can help a bit, to some degree. 

No, hardware is not fixed, because people design hardware. To them,
it is not a constant. 

> The more software, the more flexibility. I am not so much concerned about 

Of course once you've reached an optimal configuration (in truth
hardware and representation must co-evolve), then hardware improvement 
has stopped. 

> "height" and the like - I am just happy if I can change ways of my machine 
> by typing in some text and calling gcc or sbcl on it. I could have 
> experimented a bit, like building PDP-10/Lisp Machine (they are two _very_ 
> different and not connected designs) clone out of soft-computer, if I had 
> one. And it would do me safer browsing and safer banking, with attention 
> of script kiddas turned toward screwing Pentium owners (soon to be ARM 
> owners). As I said, this universe can do, I can emulate whatever machine I 
> can fit on my box.

Unfortunately I need something which makes national facilities looke
like pocket calculators, so software buys me nothing.
 
> I am not sure if we should dispute much about it all. I wanted just to 

We're not disputing, we're trying to figure out what each of us
means. I think we're making progress.

> point out, that some comments about incredible hardware progress, while 
> true, do not touch a clue of the problem at all. What is great hardware 
> good for, if all we run on it is Windows, sometimes Linux? The Singularity 
> is not going to be hardware based, it will be software run on some off the 
> shelf cpu(s). So, there is no such software, we only boast about 

What we need is Avogadro scale computing, which is 3d integrated
molecular electronics. Such things will be COTS sometime, but that
time is several decades removed yet.

> unprecedented hardware. We could as well boast about unprecedented colors 
> of computer chassis. Irrelevant, without software, which nobody seems to 
> say or aknowledge, AFAIK.

Modelling physical problems is not particularly demanding, in terms
of software complexity. Ideally, it's a direct physical implementation
of a particular kernel, as a ring of gates biting their own tails, 
and only directly talking to similiar ouroboros loops packed in a closest
packing on a 3d lattice. Because it's the only game in town,
relativistically.
 
> It doesn't matter if hardware is 10e3 or 10e6 times faster than x years 

It is not nearly as fast as some people think.

> ago. Building any prophecies on such facts is useless. And clueless. 
> Singularity will be software. It may, some time later, choose to make it's 
> own hardware, possibly soft-definable. But it will not come to existence 

I disagree. You need about a human equivalent, and that's not that
current hardware can touch.

> just because someone pushes the clock up to petahertz and memory to 

Clocks don't work. You don't need them, since you can synchronize
arrays of free running oscillators at whatever scale you like.

> exabyte.

There is no difference between CPU and memory. Because you need
already to have your data if you want to operate on it as quickly
as possible. Neurons have no core. Neurons have no software.
Neurons have state, and that's all it needs.
 
> Now, I imagine someone arguing that with such great hardware, certainly 
> somebody will write a software in no blink time. However, I disagree.

Nobody will write software for it, because humans have limits.
Try coordinating 10^9 things happening at the same time. People
crap out at below 10^1. It's their hardware limitation, at the
top-level.


From natasha at natasha.cc  Thu Mar 21 20:01:50 2013
From: natasha at natasha.cc (Natasha Vita-More)
Date: Thu, 21 Mar 2013 13:01:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Better Bodies?
Message-ID: <00db01ce266e$ed25ab50$c77101f0$@natasha.cc>

What resources to you believe as consequential for convincing people that we
need better bodies?  So much is written, but not so much forms a solid base
of evidence.

 

For example, yesterday I was watching Dr. Oz.  He has a guest who he said
was the world's authority on health and living longer. How does he know
this? Dr. Oz is convinced that this man has the perfect diet for living
longer (and it rhymes!):  Dark Greens and Beans!  The guest expert stated
that if you follow his diet "You will never be sick again".    Okay we know
this is BS. But where is the real evidence that we need better bodies?

 

The larger issue we are facing is how to convince people that we need
interventions to engineer better bodies. Stem cells, nanomedicine, etc. 

 

So, let me ask you:  What evidence do you have that we need better bodies
(graphs, statistics, charges, academic papers, your own expert opinions,
etc.)?

 

 

Thanks,

Natasha

 

 <http://www.natasha.cc/> Natasha Vita-More, PhD

esDESiGN_email

Co-Editor: The Transhumanist Reader (Wiley-Blackwell Pub.) Available at
Amazon!
<http://www.amazon.com/Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-Technology-Philosop
hy/dp/1118334310/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1363616965&sr=1-1&keywords=t
he+transhumanist+reader> 

 

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From msd001 at gmail.com  Thu Mar 21 20:56:42 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Thu, 21 Mar 2013 16:56:42 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Better Bodies?
In-Reply-To: <00db01ce266e$ed25ab50$c77101f0$@natasha.cc>
References: <00db01ce266e$ed25ab50$c77101f0$@natasha.cc>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbK4iURRTtU2Ru3AGdBeuGZutbRr1hGbT7YTHeHvBY9ffw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 21, 2013 at 4:01 PM, Natasha Vita-More <natasha at natasha.cc>wrote:

>
>
> So, let me ask you:  What evidence do you have that we need better bodies
> (graphs, statistics, charges, academic papers, your own expert opinions,
> etc.)?****
>
>
>
on 3/4 my wife stepped down from an outdoor 8 inch step and blew out her
ankle, dislocating her left foot and in the fall badly sprained her right
foot.  The medical service she has received has been great.  I am thankful
that it exists and is readily available where we live.

However, it is surprising to me how unconcerned everyone seems to be -
chalking it up to "these things happen."  While it is nice for us that
these doctors have had sufficient practice that we benefit from their
experience rather than fumbling around with "try it and see" solutions, I
am disturbed by how easily people can break themselves.

When you said 'better bodies' I immediately thought of a skeleton capable
of resisting at least an order of magnitude more shock/stress than mere
bones.

During the recovery/healing process my wife has been "walking" by lifting
herself on her hands with a walker (crutches were too difficult with a cast
on one ankle and boot on the other)  Muscle fatigue in her arms limits
mobility.  Perhaps this simply underscores the need to continuously keep
fitness a priority - but what constitutes 'fit enough'?  Muscles that build
up more quickly on-demand/as-needed would have been a nice feature to even
temporarily upgrade if our [better] bodies were so adjustable.

Yeah, I don't have academic resources as evidence to convince anyone that
we need better bodies.  This is a personal anecdote that would be very
relatable to an average first-worlder.  It does suggest a possible source
for statistics:  sports-related orthopedic injuries vs non-sport orthopedic
injuries - obviously sports performance levels would be at the extreme
usage limits, professional sports even more so.  Better bodies would allow
the rest of us to push performance to professional sports levels without
increasing the likelihood for personal injury that exists now simply
walking down some steps.

I imagine sources like this:
http://www.schwebel.com/userfiles/files/Fractures%281024%29.pdf
are nice info-snacks, but maybe not sufficient for your purpose.  Good
luck, though I know I don't need much convincing that we need better
bodies.  :)
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Mar 21 19:46:45 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 21 Mar 2013 15:46:45 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Moore's Law
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRRj3zezmJVjjFnffEJzgw7ddJD_74M65a8kgZ2B+cRzA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CALAdGNRRj3zezmJVjjFnffEJzgw7ddJD_74M65a8kgZ2B+cRzA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3jsrrgaUYHSYRpfENPkHpqn0iwaoF9Fnfz28CLWFuzUw@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 10:09 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:


> > The progress in hardware has recently been limited, especially since
> Moore has ended.
>

Maybe, but there have been bumps in the road before and Moore's law has
always recovered. In 1990 it looked like the end of the road due to heat
and power consumption, but then the switch was made from bipolar technology
to CMOS and the law continued. Then in 2000 it looked like the end because
of quantum tunneling leakage current through the silicon dioxide used in
the very narrow transistor gates, so they switched over to high dielectric
constant materials like hafnium silicate and the problem was solved.

Maybe its different this time and it really is the end, or maybe monolithic
3D technology will save the day. Or Spintronics, devices that for the first
time make use of the fact that electrons not only have an electrical charge
but the particles also have a spin. Or maybe memristors, the fourth passive
2 terminal electrical component after resistors, capacitors and inductors.
Or maybe it will be Quantum Computers.

 By the way, most of the March 8 2013 issue of Science Magazine (it and
Nature are the 2 most respected science journals in the world) is devoted
almost entirely to articles about Quantum Computers. Here are what some of
the world class physicists have to say:

"The concept of solving problems with the use of quantum algorithms,
introduced in the early 1990s was welcomed as a revolutionary change in the
theory of computational complexity, but the feat of actually building a
quantum computer was then thought to be impossible. The invention of
quantum error correction introduced hope that a quantum computer might one
day be built, most likely by future generations of physicists and
engineers. However, less than 20 years later, we have witnessed so many
advances that successful quantum computations, and other applications of
quantum information processing such as quantum simulation and long distance
quantum communication appear reachable within our lifetime"

"A final measurement of the system can then yield information pertaining to
all 2^N states. For merely N= 400 qubits, we find that the encoded
information of 2^ 400 = 10^120 values is more than the number of
fundamental particles in the universe; such a computation could never be
performed without the parallel processing enabled by quantum mechanics. In
a sense, entanglement between qubits acts as an invisible wiring that can
potentially be exploited to solve certain problems that are intractable
otherwise. [...] Remarkably, we have not yet encountered any fundamental
physical principles that would prohibit the building of quite large quantum
processors."

"The past decade has seen remarkable progress in isolating and controlling
quantum coherence using charges and spins in semiconductors. Quantum
control has been established at room temperature, and electron spin
coherence times now exceed several seconds, a nine order-of-magnitude
increase in coherence compared with the first semiconductor qubits."

"Although many challenges remain on the road to constructing a useful
quantum computer, the pace of discovery seems to be accelerating, and spins
in semiconductors are poised to play a major role."

There was even a article on the most radical sort of Quantum computer, a
Topological Quantum Computer using non-Abelian pseudo-particles, and even
here they report "substantial progress in this field".

  John K Clark
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From natasha at natasha.cc  Thu Mar 21 21:43:18 2013
From: natasha at natasha.cc (Natasha Vita-More)
Date: Thu, 21 Mar 2013 14:43:18 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Better Bodies?
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbK4iURRTtU2Ru3AGdBeuGZutbRr1hGbT7YTHeHvBY9ffw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00db01ce266e$ed25ab50$c77101f0$@natasha.cc>
 <CAOJFdbK4iURRTtU2Ru3AGdBeuGZutbRr1hGbT7YTHeHvBY9ffw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <010f01ce267d$19a982b0$4cfc8810$@natasha.cc>

Thank you for the link. Great!

 

 <http://www.natasha.cc/> Natasha Vita-More, PhD

esDESiGN_email

Co-Editor: The Transhumanist Reader (Wiley-Blackwell Pub.)
<http://www.amazon.com/Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-Technology-Philosop
hy/dp/1118334310/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1363616965&sr=1-1&keywords=t
he+transhumanist+reader> Available at Amazon!

 

Adjunct Professor, University of Advancing Technology

Chairman,  <http://www.humanityplus.org/> Humanity+



 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty
Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2013 1:57 PM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] Better Bodies?

 

On Thu, Mar 21, 2013 at 4:01 PM, Natasha Vita-More <natasha at natasha.cc>
wrote:

 

So, let me ask you:  What evidence do you have that we need better bodies
(graphs, statistics, charges, academic papers, your own expert opinions,
etc.)?

 


on 3/4 my wife stepped down from an outdoor 8 inch step and blew out her
ankle, dislocating her left foot and in the fall badly sprained her right
foot.  The medical service she has received has been great.  I am thankful
that it exists and is readily available where we live. 

However, it is surprising to me how unconcerned everyone seems to be -
chalking it up to "these things happen."  While it is nice for us that these
doctors have had sufficient practice that we benefit from their experience
rather than fumbling around with "try it and see" solutions, I am disturbed
by how easily people can break themselves.

When you said 'better bodies' I immediately thought of a skeleton capable of
resisting at least an order of magnitude more shock/stress than mere bones.


During the recovery/healing process my wife has been "walking" by lifting
herself on her hands with a walker (crutches were too difficult with a cast
on one ankle and boot on the other)  Muscle fatigue in her arms limits
mobility.  Perhaps this simply underscores the need to continuously keep
fitness a priority - but what constitutes 'fit enough'?  Muscles that build
up more quickly on-demand/as-needed would have been a nice feature to even
temporarily upgrade if our [better] bodies were so adjustable.  

Yeah, I don't have academic resources as evidence to convince anyone that we
need better bodies.  This is a personal anecdote that would be very
relatable to an average first-worlder.  It does suggest a possible source
for statistics:  sports-related orthopedic injuries vs non-sport orthopedic
injuries - obviously sports performance levels would be at the extreme usage
limits, professional sports even more so.  Better bodies would allow the
rest of us to push performance to professional sports levels without
increasing the likelihood for personal injury that exists now simply walking
down some steps.

I imagine sources like this:
http://www.schwebel.com/userfiles/files/Fractures%281024%29.pdf
are nice info-snacks, but maybe not sufficient for your purpose.  Good luck,
though I know I don't need much convincing that we need better bodies.  :)

 

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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Mar 21 21:57:44 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 21 Mar 2013 21:57:44 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Better Bodies?
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbK4iURRTtU2Ru3AGdBeuGZutbRr1hGbT7YTHeHvBY9ffw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00db01ce266e$ed25ab50$c77101f0$@natasha.cc>
 <CAOJFdbK4iURRTtU2Ru3AGdBeuGZutbRr1hGbT7YTHeHvBY9ffw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armiLWtyc_nWCvVMeh+kNphsZVgwkDyONuy82orm+QfL0kw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 21, 2013 at 8:56 PM, Mike Dougherty wrote:
> However, it is surprising to me how unconcerned everyone seems to be -
> chalking it up to "these things happen."  While it is nice for us that these
> doctors have had sufficient practice that we benefit from their experience
> rather than fumbling around with "try it and see" solutions, I am disturbed
> by how easily people can break themselves.
>
> When you said 'better bodies' I immediately thought of a skeleton capable of
> resisting at least an order of magnitude more shock/stress than mere bones.
>

That's one way of looking at the problem. But you would need more than
just stronger bones. Otherwise the skin, flesh, blood and nerves would
be stripped from the indestructible bones.

Falls are by far the most common human accident. So I would suggest a
better command and control system to avoid falls in the first place.
(And perhaps rubber bones would be better than steel bones).  :)


BillK


From msd001 at gmail.com  Thu Mar 21 23:07:34 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Thu, 21 Mar 2013 19:07:34 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Better Bodies?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiLWtyc_nWCvVMeh+kNphsZVgwkDyONuy82orm+QfL0kw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00db01ce266e$ed25ab50$c77101f0$@natasha.cc>
 <CAOJFdbK4iURRTtU2Ru3AGdBeuGZutbRr1hGbT7YTHeHvBY9ffw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armiLWtyc_nWCvVMeh+kNphsZVgwkDyONuy82orm+QfL0kw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbJKEQ00xb+JdXPAz2=1bQYr9uNH7KVQjCiOczmx07M0bw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 21, 2013 at 5:57 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> That's one way of looking at the problem. But you would need more than
> just stronger bones. Otherwise the skin, flesh, blood and nerves would
> be stripped from the indestructible bones.

right - because knowing you won't have to deal with broken skeleton
you'd be more likely to risk the rest.  Ironically, if we are too
careful the body loses resilience to shock & strain.

> Falls are by far the most common human accident. So I would suggest a
> better command and control system to avoid falls in the first place.
> (And perhaps rubber bones would be better than steel bones).  :)

I gave my dog a rubber bone once... she still has it.  (now that's a
testimonial)


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Thu Mar 21 23:36:10 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 00:36:10 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] Moore's Law
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3jsrrgaUYHSYRpfENPkHpqn0iwaoF9Fnfz28CLWFuzUw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CALAdGNRRj3zezmJVjjFnffEJzgw7ddJD_74M65a8kgZ2B+cRzA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3jsrrgaUYHSYRpfENPkHpqn0iwaoF9Fnfz28CLWFuzUw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303220014490.6573@tau.ceti.pl>

On Thu, 21 Mar 2013, John Clark wrote:

[...]
> Maybe its different this time and it really is the end, or maybe 
> monolithic 3D technology will save the day. Or Spintronics, devices that 
> for the first time make use of the fact that electrons not only have an 
> electrical charge but the particles also have a spin. Or maybe 
> memristors, the fourth passive 2 terminal electrical component after 
> resistors, capacitors and inductors. Or maybe it will be Quantum 
> Computers.

Lots of "maybes", Mr Clark. It is hard to build any reasonable prediction 
on that, if you ask me. There is lots of talking about breakthroughs and 
solutions. Not so much about construction or production. Even less about 
applications in real life. Either it is all classified (so why make all 
the fuss in the media) or it is not as great as they say.

So I think I will wait and see what happens. Of course I wouldn't mind 
having quantum Pentium. But can it run my Linux distro for a week without 
decoherenting itself? No? It's a coprocessor? Ok, so can it run my other 
code for a week long computation? Yes, there are some research saying QC 
will not solve all that many problems, only some of them it will solve 
faster. They don't say what kind of faster, AFAIK.

Of course I am not QC specialist. And I might have read wrong websites and 
not recently.

[...]
> There was even a article on the most radical sort of Quantum computer, a 
> Topological Quantum Computer using non-Abelian pseudo-particles, and 
> even here they report "substantial progress in this field".

I understand it was theoretical breakthrough?

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From anders at aleph.se  Fri Mar 22 00:22:01 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 00:22:01 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Better Bodies?
In-Reply-To: <00db01ce266e$ed25ab50$c77101f0$@natasha.cc>
References: <00db01ce266e$ed25ab50$c77101f0$@natasha.cc>
Message-ID: <514BA429.1090509@aleph.se>

On 21/03/2013 20:01, Natasha Vita-More wrote:
>
> What resources to you believe as consequential for convincing people 
> that we need better bodies?  So much is written, but not so much forms 
> a solid base of evidence.
>

While academic papers and rigorous arguments only convince a few people, 
here is my and Nick's take on it:
http://www.nickbostrom.com/evolution.pdf

Our argument is that even if evolution were a perfect optimizer, it 
would still fail at (1) giving us the right trade-offs for the modern 
world, (2) evolve things that are hard to do biologically, and (3) 
maximize human values. Given any optimality measure except past 
evolutionary fitness or "status quo is best" we should expect our bodies 
to be suboptimal at least in some respects.

We have later been taken to task by Powell and Buchanan ( 
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21228084 ) for giving evolution too 
much credit :-)




-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University

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From rtomek at ceti.pl  Fri Mar 22 02:38:37 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 03:38:37 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <20130321162148.GP6172@leitl.org>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
 <20130318105054.GG6172@leitl.org> <op.wt6mego00wog37@nikita>
 <20130319095655.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303201736030.25089@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20130320170917.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303202115130.25089@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20130321162148.GP6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303220146060.6573@tau.ceti.pl>

On Thu, 21 Mar 2013, Eugen Leitl wrote:

> On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 10:46:49PM +0100, Tomasz Rola wrote:
> 
[...]
> > trying to minimize negative (like noncompatibility) impact on 
> > software.
> 
> We're not communicating very well here, I think.

Hehe. But we're making some progress, it's something.

[...]
> The Parallella's dual ARM cores are just vestigal appendices on the DSP 
> array, and the FPGA (Zynq 7020). They're auxiliary, all the heavy 
> lifting is done elsewhere.

Ok, this is interesting even if still infant. Thanks.

> > > > Therefore exciting oneself with great developments in hardware 
> > > > domain (true, there is amazing amount of Nobel-level thinking, I 
> > > > admit) is kind of like boasting about faster and faster cars, not 
> > > > telling there is not so many places to drive them to.
> > > 
> > > If you want to reach the stars in nogeological times you need to do 
> > > better than chemical rockets.
> > 
> > We are not going to have even this, I'm afraid. But this is a 
> > different subject from computing hardware. And I agree on this one.
> 
> Not a different subject, since a metaphor.

Ah. I see. I thought you didn't get my metaphor so I turned metaphoric 
mode off and in effect I didn't get yours.

> I see no progress in software, as long as developing means human
> primates manually massaging data, and jabbering in meetings.

Yes. Unfortunately quite a lot o people thinks this is progress.

> For instance, one of our project is converting images to
> chemical structures. What strikes you about that problem?

Nothing yet. Out of curiosity, what images? By "converting to chemical 
structures", do you mean creating unambiguous description of such 
structures?

> > should receive some positive stimulation, rather than promotion of 
> > trash programming languages whose names start on "J", team work and 
> > other BS.
> 
> I'm happy I don't have to deal with that BS.

Me too. Albeit happiness does not come for free :-/ .

[...]
> > I am not sure if we should dispute much about it all. I wanted just to
> 
> We're not disputing, we're trying to figure out what each of us means. I 
> think we're making progress.

Some progress. Yep.

I think I now understand our disagreement better and it is not 
disagreement actually. More like, in multidimensional space (let's not 
define it too well) the meaning of "high level" is two rather different 
points. Yours is more about raw computing power, right? Mine is, well, I 
guess I have been infected by Lisp bug and it already started to convert 
my mind (despite clear similarity to some veneric disease, this one has a 
strong promise of happy end, although promise and delivery may differ in 
case of each patient). So I am more interested in algorithms, sometimes 
algorithms creating algorithms (this can be upped as many levels as one 
wishes but I am not this high on evolutionary ladder...) and so on. Speed 
is important later, when (if) the program starts doing something 
noticeable.

Wrt to software domination, I think I need to retract my previous 
statements a bit. Long ago, one bud showed me his "pocket clock" stuffed 
in a soap box, built on integrated circuits, diodes and other such stuff. 
I was in awe. It had no buttons, re/setting was done by shortcircuiting 
proper pair of wires. Nowadays, if I was to do such stunt, I'd go with 
some small 8bit cpu, readymade display module and some glue code in 
assembly to drive it. It would've been easier to design and test, and 
change the code until it does what I wanted, rather than solder ICs and 
later sit on the mess of wires, debugging it with multimeter. So there are 
situations where I would love to stay with software even if it was 
overkill in terms of hardware used, power drawn and overall ellegance. On 
the other hand, there is a charm of constructing things out of carefully 
counted number of gates (which I never did, just to be clear).

Actually, given a fact that I am a theoretical solderer, I'd love to stay 
with software every time.

Now, back to original quotation that started this "nondispute":

-  http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/WER2.html
 
- "Progress in hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last 
  few decades. Based on this trend, I believe that the creation of 
  greater-than-human intelligence will occur during the next thirty 
  years."

I have heard/read this quotation few times over years, and it made me 
increasingly unhappy. It may be true that hardware eventually goes to 
"point S" or however we call it, but I'm afraid it is not going there fast 
enough. I would have been much more happier when someone said something 
like:

 "Progress in _software_ has followed an amazingly steady curve..."

or 

 "Progress in _hardware_ _and_ _software_ has followed an amazingly steady 
curve..."

It would have felt like we were going to somewhere. Software can be 
evolved much faster.

I have looked at the essay and I noticed there were some annotations 
added, so maybe I will be a bit happier when I read them.

Now, I'd rather not go into another iteration of our nondispute on hw vs 
sw. It feels more and more irrelevant, bifurcating and more irrelevant. 
There is a melt of hw and sw and what acts as piece of hw may be actually 
a melt. But for my own use, I will retain the notion that hw != sw. To me, 
hw is bought in a shop and it changes its ways only if this had been 
designed in. Sw is something I myself write in emacs or vim or cat. By 
this definition, Windows is hw but I don't actually care. Well, ok, to be 
exact it is intended to be hw but someone could change its ways if she sat 
on it for long enough. But OTOH, the same could have been said about 
Pentium. Frak it. It sounds idiotic but ok, Windows is hw. One more reason 
to frak it. All the way down to hell.

[...]
> What we need is Avogadro scale computing, which is 3d integrated 
> molecular electronics. Such things will be COTS sometime, but that time 
> is several decades removed yet.

I am not sure what kind of problem you want to solve with it, but even 
such thing moves the limit of possible computation only somewhat further. 
But I would like to have it, too. Actually, I need it too. Even thou I 
don't yet have a soft to keep it warm.

> > unprecedented hardware. We could as well boast about unprecedented 
> > colors of computer chassis. Irrelevant, without software, which nobody 
> > seems to say or aknowledge, AFAIK.
> 
> Modelling physical problems is not particularly demanding, in terms of 
> software complexity. Ideally, it's a direct physical implementation of a 
> particular kernel, as a ring of gates biting their own tails, and only 
> directly talking to similiar ouroboros loops packed in a closest packing 
> on a 3d lattice. Because it's the only game in town, relativistically.

Doeasn't sound optimistic and wasn't meant to be optimistic, I guess.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From pemca at comcast.net  Thu Mar 21 23:00:15 2013
From: pemca at comcast.net (Peter E McAlpine)
Date: Thu, 21 Mar 2013 19:00:15 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Better Bodies?
In-Reply-To: <010f01ce267d$19a982b0$4cfc8810$@natasha.cc>
References: <00db01ce266e$ed25ab50$c77101f0$@natasha.cc>
 <CAOJFdbK4iURRTtU2Ru3AGdBeuGZutbRr1hGbT7YTHeHvBY9ffw@mail.gmail.com>
 <010f01ce267d$19a982b0$4cfc8810$@natasha.cc>
Message-ID: <012501ce2687$da282eb0$8e788c10$@comcast.net>

>>>>>do you have that we need better bodies (graphs, statistics, charges,
academic papers, your own expert opinions, etc.)?

Yeah, crawling in my attic on all fours, and lifting my then over-weight
self with my arms, I snapped a rotator cuff tendon.  Needed a titanium one!
Obviously!

 

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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Mar 22 02:28:20 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 21 Mar 2013 22:28:20 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Moore's Law
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303220014490.6573@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <CALAdGNRRj3zezmJVjjFnffEJzgw7ddJD_74M65a8kgZ2B+cRzA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3jsrrgaUYHSYRpfENPkHpqn0iwaoF9Fnfz28CLWFuzUw@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303220014490.6573@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3+Wn11=xoqQcF6OuWcwk3_JSPixhuT8pOw_=HKi1qSkQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 21, 2013  Tomasz Rola <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:

> Lots of "maybes", Mr Clark. It is hard to build any reasonable prediction
> on that, if you ask me.
>

Yeah guilty as charged, but in my own defense the fact is that predicting
is hard, especially the future.

> Yes, there are some research saying QC will not solve all that many
> problems, only some of them it will solve
> faster. They don't say what kind of faster, AFAIK.
>

We already know that Quantum Computers could factor numbers faster than a
conventional computer, and find information in a list faster, and far more
important it could simulate a quantum system much much faster, like
figuring out what sequence of amino acids you'd need to fold up and form a
3D protein of a particular shape. We'll probably find that lots of other
things that would be faster too especially highly parallel things, and most
physical processes are highly parallel.

>> There was even a article on the most radical sort of Quantum computer, a
>> Topological Quantum Computer using non-Abelian pseudo-particles, and even
>> here they report "substantial progress in this field".
>>
>
> > I understand it was theoretical breakthrough?
>

Yes, in fact nobody has even proved conclusively that non-Abelian
pseudo-particles even exist, although the evidence that they do keeps
increasing. And if they do exist that would be huge because they would be
far less susceptible to quantum decoherence than normal particles and so
would be the ideal thing to use in making a Quantum Computer. I think that
a working Quantum Computer is the only thing that might rival
Nanotechnology in revolutionizing the world.

  John K Clark
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From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Mar 22 10:33:22 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 11:33:22 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303220146060.6573@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <20130318105054.GG6172@leitl.org>
 <op.wt6mego00wog37@nikita> <20130319095655.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303201736030.25089@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20130320170917.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303202115130.25089@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20130321162148.GP6172@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303220146060.6573@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <20130322103322.GB6172@leitl.org>

On Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 03:38:37AM +0100, Tomasz Rola wrote:

> [...]
> > The Parallella's dual ARM cores are just vestigal appendices on the DSP 
> > array, and the FPGA (Zynq 7020). They're auxiliary, all the heavy 
> > lifting is done elsewhere.
> 
> Ok, this is interesting even if still infant. Thanks.

The Parallella (assuming they're ever going to ship the dev kit)
is testing some new waters, but nothing too risky, I would hope.

The DSP cores are basically an Analog Device DSP cluster on
a chip, each optimised for 32 bit (single precision) float
performance, and 32 kByte embedded memory in each DSP core.

The leftover FPGA (especially if you chuck out unneeded
functionality like driving the HDMI with video) is probably 
sufficient to implement a message passing interface with 
6 links (8 bit each) which allows you a 3D torus, and potentially 
can achieve up to ~1 GByte/s throughput, each. 

The energy efficiency is roughly 8x of that of a Blue Gene/Q, 
so such a system would be in touching distance of an EFlop 
system in terms of energy
efficiency required.
 
> > For instance, one of our project is converting images to
> > chemical structures. What strikes you about that problem?
> 
> Nothing yet. Out of curiosity, what images? By "converting to chemical 

Digitized documents, many millions of them. From various ages,
with varying quality, using different representations, some
of which would case a human expert analyst to at least pause
briefly eliminating impossibilities when faced with ambiguous
representations (which are the rule rather than an exception).

> structures", do you mean creating unambiguous description of such 
> structures?

Yes, translating them into standard representation of chemical
structures and reactions, with a known error rate of 99% or
better (meaning, that you need to know when you've made
a mistake, since manual examination of each document is
right out, since it take so much time you could do it all 
by hand, which you can't, for cost reasons).

As I said, that task is Turing-complete. You need a machine
vision package with chemical common sense, which is not feasible 
with an expert system approach. The only other alternative is to
have a huge training set and use machine learning, which is
precisely about not coding this explicitly, and requiring very
serious hardware (both in therm of memory/node and batching
across many nodes) to deliver the performance required.

This is way out of league for a small shop. It's something
for the likes of Google, but they don't have the skills and
the drive to do it, as it would be a tiny niche of their
core business. 
 
> > We're not disputing, we're trying to figure out what each of us means. I 
> > think we're making progress.
> 
> Some progress. Yep.
> 
> I think I now understand our disagreement better and it is not 
> disagreement actually. More like, in multidimensional space (let's not 
> define it too well) the meaning of "high level" is two rather different 
> points. Yours is more about raw computing power, right? Mine is, well, I 
> guess I have been infected by Lisp bug and it already started to convert 

I've been on a Lisp/AI track since early 1980s. The Lisp environment
(and dynamic language environments in general) are obviously a near-optimal
tool for a human programmer, but they're rather useless for AI, as
AI is not about coding down things explicitly. That has a complexity
ceiling issue and issue of externalizing internal language, which 
is a dead end (experts can't tell you exactly how to be an expert,
just using language).

The problem of Lisp is that it comes from lambda calculus, and
mathematicians never saw the need to formulate a massively parallel
branch of reasoning, both because top-level reasoning of humans
is sequential, and because they're physics-agnostic, proudly so.

This also applies to CS people, and most developers, which is why
they get continous surprises, of the bad kind (it took about an
hour of my time to convince a developer that the threads-in-a-global
memory model is on its own legs, and that 99% of all developers don't
have any clue how to solve things in a shared-nothing asynchronous
model with 10^3 to 10^9 independant systems, with no sequential
sections, so it's nondeterministic until you reach back in time
to make it deterministic, which is an absolute exception orelse
you're bringing things to a halt, screechingly, and has to be done 
all manually).

> my mind (despite clear similarity to some veneric disease, this one has a 
> strong promise of happy end, although promise and delivery may differ in 
> case of each patient). So I am more interested in algorithms, sometimes 
> algorithms creating algorithms (this can be upped as many levels as one 
> wishes but I am not this high on evolutionary ladder...) and so on. Speed 
> is important later, when (if) the program starts doing something 
> noticeable.

Here's a deceptively simple problem: make a GA learn evolvability.
There's not nearly enough transistors on this whole planet at the 
moment to make it happen, nevermind in a single, tightly-coupled 
installation.
 
> Wrt to software domination, I think I need to retract my previous 
> statements a bit. Long ago, one bud showed me his "pocket clock" stuffed 
> in a soap box, built on integrated circuits, diodes and other such stuff. 
> I was in awe. It had no buttons, re/setting was done by shortcircuiting 
> proper pair of wires. Nowadays, if I was to do such stunt, I'd go with 
> some small 8bit cpu, readymade display module and some glue code in 
> assembly to drive it. It would've been easier to design and test, and 
> change the code until it does what I wanted, rather than solder ICs and 
> later sit on the mess of wires, debugging it with multimeter. So there are 
> situations where I would love to stay with software even if it was 
> overkill in terms of hardware used, power drawn and overall ellegance. On 
> the other hand, there is a charm of constructing things out of carefully 
> counted number of gates (which I never did, just to be clear).

The reason for keeping the number of logic blocks low is that
each incurs a delay, and each ps requires a 300 um spacing
between adjacent blocks, and each fs requires 300 nm, which 
is equivalent to 1 PHz refresh rate. 
 
> Actually, given a fact that I am a theoretical solderer, I'd love to stay 
> with software every time.
> 
> Now, back to original quotation that started this "nondispute":
> 
> -  http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/WER2.html
>  
> - "Progress in hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last 
>   few decades. Based on this trend, I believe that the creation of 

Actually, people who've been watching the benchmark space in CPUs
and GPUs in the last couple years would disagree. The transistor
count never translated directly into performance for most applications,
but the last couple years have been especially disappointing.
As we go off-Moore (the doublings are no longer constant, since
associated with a lot of money spent which won't ROI anytime soon)
things will become progressively more disappointing.

>   greater-than-human intelligence will occur during the next thirty 
>   years."
> 
> I have heard/read this quotation few times over years, and it made me 
> increasingly unhappy. It may be true that hardware eventually goes to 

Not just you.

> "point S" or however we call it, but I'm afraid it is not going there fast 
> enough. I would have been much more happier when someone said something 
> like:
> 
>  "Progress in _software_ has followed an amazingly steady curve..."
> 
> or 
> 
>  "Progress in _hardware_ _and_ _software_ has followed an amazingly steady 
> curve..."
> 
> It would have felt like we were going to somewhere. Software can be 
> evolved much faster.
> 
> I have looked at the essay and I noticed there were some annotations 
> added, so maybe I will be a bit happier when I read them.
> 
> Now, I'd rather not go into another iteration of our nondispute on hw vs 
> sw. It feels more and more irrelevant, bifurcating and more irrelevant. 
> There is a melt of hw and sw and what acts as piece of hw may be actually 
> a melt. But for my own use, I will retain the notion that hw != sw. To me, 

Would I want to implement a subset of MPI in the Zynq 7020 I would need
to formulate it in a HDL. That description can be equally cast into
an ASIC.

> hw is bought in a shop and it changes its ways only if this had been 
> designed in. Sw is something I myself write in emacs or vim or cat. By 

You can write VHDL in an editor just fine. You'll find that ARM is a
fabless operation. 

> this definition, Windows is hw but I don't actually care. Well, ok, to be 
> exact it is intended to be hw but someone could change its ways if she sat 
> on it for long enough. But OTOH, the same could have been said about 
> Pentium. Frak it. It sounds idiotic but ok, Windows is hw. One more reason 
> to frak it. All the way down to hell.
> 
> [...]
> > What we need is Avogadro scale computing, which is 3d integrated 
> > molecular electronics. Such things will be COTS sometime, but that time 
> > is several decades removed yet.
> 
> I am not sure what kind of problem you want to solve with it, but even 

Near-brute-force search in parameter space. E.g. if you want to recapitulate
what a few GYrs of a planetfull full of chemicals did. 

> such thing moves the limit of possible computation only somewhat further. 
> But I would like to have it, too. Actually, I need it too. Even thou I 
> don't yet have a soft to keep it warm.

You could. It would be a lot like using a silicon compiler.
Instead of memory, your could would occupy a volume of logic,
and you would lay out your data flow across that circuit.
Not manually, of course, your toolchain would do that for you,
and it would be quite grateful for explicit hints (a la
"unroll that inner loop using paths all evaluated in parallel").
 
> > > unprecedented hardware. We could as well boast about unprecedented 
> > > colors of computer chassis. Irrelevant, without software, which nobody 
> > > seems to say or aknowledge, AFAIK.
> > 
> > Modelling physical problems is not particularly demanding, in terms of 
> > software complexity. Ideally, it's a direct physical implementation of a 
> > particular kernel, as a ring of gates biting their own tails, and only 
> > directly talking to similiar ouroboros loops packed in a closest packing 
> > on a 3d lattice. Because it's the only game in town, relativistically.
> 
> Doeasn't sound optimistic and wasn't meant to be optimistic, I guess.

It is very optimistic, because it's a generic blueprint, and it's a low-complexity
system to boot. It's small enough so that you could find things in that search
space, assuming you have enough computation at your disposal. The system is
also positive-feedback, in that it's assisting in its own construction. 
You can start working on it right away, if you had access to a meganode box.


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Mar 22 14:38:38 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 10:38:38 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Quantum Computers
Message-ID: <CAJPayv09NPDAZgy+NE7YEg_BS_r+OL_7RatGp3DNAhDS==6zvg@mail.gmail.com>

The following article about Quantum Computers was on page one of the
business section of today's New York Times:
========

VANCOUVER, British Columbia ? Our digital age is all about bits, those
precise ones and zeros that are the stuff of modern computer code. But a
powerful new type of computer that is about to be commercially deployed by
a major American military contractor is taking computing into the strange,
subatomic realm of quantum mechanics. In that infinitesimal neighborhood,
common sense logic no longer seems to apply. A one can be a one, or it can
be a one and a zero and everything in between ? all at the same time.

It sounds preposterous, particularly to those familiar with the yes/no
world of conventional computing. But academic researchers and scientists at
companies like Microsoft, I.B.M. and Hewlett-Packard have been working to
develop quantum computers.

Now, Lockheed Martin ? which bought an early version of such a computer
from the Canadian company D-Wave Systems two years ago ? is confident
enough in the technology to upgrade it to commercial scale, becoming the
first company to use quantum computing as part of its business.

Skeptics say that D-Wave has yet to prove to outside scientists that it has
solved the myriad challenges involved in quantum computation.

But if it performs as Lockheed and D-Wave expect, the design could be used
to supercharge even the most powerful systems, solving some science and
business problems millions of times faster than can be done today.

Ray Johnson, Lockheed?s chief technical officer, said his company would use
the quantum computer to create and test complex radar, space and aircraft
systems. It could be possible, for example, to tell instantly how the
millions of lines of software running a network of satellites would react
to a solar burst or a pulse from a nuclear explosion ? something that can
now take weeks, if ever, to determine.

?This is a revolution not unlike the early days of computing,? he said. ?It
is a transformation in the way computers are thought about.? Many others
could find applications for D-Wave?s computers. Cancer researchers see a
potential to move rapidly through vast amounts of genetic data. The
technology could also be used to determine the behavior of proteins in the
human genome, a bigger and tougher problem than sequencing the genome.
Researchers at Google have worked with D-Wave on using quantum computers to
recognize cars and landmarks, a critical step in managing self-driving
vehicles.

Quantum computing is so much faster than traditional computing because of
the unusual properties of particles at the smallest level. Instead of the
precision of ones and zeros that have been used to represent data since the
earliest days of computers, quantum computing relies on the fact that
subatomic particles inhabit a range of states. Different relationships
among the particles may coexist, as well. Those probable states can be
narrowed to determine an optimal outcome among a near-infinitude of
possibilities, which allows certain types of problems to be solved rapidly.

D-Wave, a 12-year-old company based in Vancouver, has received investments
from Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon.com, which operates one of the
world?s largest computer systems, as well as from the investment bank
Goldman Sachs and from In-Q-Tel, an investment firm with close ties to the
Central Intelligence Agency and other government agencies.

?What we?re doing is a parallel development to the kind of computing we?ve
had for the past 70 years,? said Vern Brownell, D-Wave?s chief executive.

Mr. Brownell, who joined D-Wave in 2009, was until 2000 the chief technical
officer at Goldman Sachs. ?In those days, we had 50,000 servers just doing
simulations? to figure out trading strategies, he said. ?I?m sure there is
a lot more than that now, but we?ll be able to do that with one machine,
for far less money.?

D-Wave, and the broader vision of quantum-supercharged computing, is not
without its critics. Much of the criticism stems from D-Wave?s own claims
in 2007, later withdrawn, that it would produce a commercial quantum
computer within a year.
There?s no reason quantum computing shouldn?t be possible, but people
talked about heavier-than-air flight for a long time before the Wright
brothers solved the problem,? said Scott Aaronson, a professor of computer
science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. D-Wave, he said, ?has
said things in the past that were just ridiculous, things that give you
very little confidence.?

But others say people working in quantum computing are generally optimistic
about breakthroughs to come. Quantum researchers ?are taking a step out of
the theoretical domain and into the applied,? said Peter Lee, the head of
Microsoft?s research arm, which has a team in Santa Barbara, Calif.,
pursuing its own quantum work. ?There is a sense among top researchers that
we?re all in a race.?

If Microsoft?s work pans out, he said, the millions of possible
combinations of the proteins in a human gene could be worked out ?fairly
easily.?

Quantum computing has been a goal of researchers for more than three
decades, but it has proved remarkably difficult to achieve. The idea has
been to exploit a property of matter in a quantum state known as
superposition, which makes it possible for the basic elements of a quantum
computer, known as qubits, to hold a vast array of values simultaneously.

There are a variety of ways scientists create the conditions needed to
achieve superposition as well as a second quantum state known as
entanglement, which are both necessary for quantum computing. Researchers
have suspended ions in magnetic fields, trapped photons or manipulated
phosphorus atoms in silicon.The D-Wave computer that Lockheed has bought
uses a different mathematical approach than competing efforts. In the
D-Wave system, a quantum computing processor, made from a lattice of tiny
superconducting wires, is chilled close to absolute zero. It is then
programmed by loading a set of mathematical equations into the lattice.

The processor then moves through a near-infinity of possibilities to
determine the lowest energy required to form those relationships. That
state, seen as the optimal outcome, is the answer.

The approach, which is known as adiabatic quantum computing, has been shown
to have promise in applications like calculating protein folding, and
D-Wave?s designers said it could potentially be used to evaluate
complicated financial strategies or vast logistics problems.

However, the company?s scientists have not yet published scientific data
showing that the system computes faster than today?s conventional binary
computers. While similar subatomic properties are used by plants to turn
sunlight into photosynthetic energy in a few million-billionths of a
second, critics of D-Wave?s method say it is not quantum computing at all,
but a form of standard thermal behavior.

 John Markoff contributed reporting from San Francisco.
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From painlord2k at libero.it  Fri Mar 22 14:48:32 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 15:48:32 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgGa4jhONE6gwTvNEGKJoe3oVcx4pO4kW=M9RbGX8svPA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita> <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgGa4jhONE6gwTvNEGKJoe3oVcx4pO4kW=M9RbGX8svPA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <514C6F40.3060408@libero.it>

Il 19/03/2013 21:36, BillK ha scritto:
> On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 7:57 PM, spike wrote:
>> Sounds like the robbery may have been foiled.  Usually some desperate prole
>> robs a bank.  This time some desperate banks robbed the proles.  But the
>> headlines are ambiguous.  Sounds to me like it was stopped?  Europeans, our
>> news agencies are puzzled on how to report this story with the usual
>> political spin, so they end up writing confusing and apparently
>> self-contradictory stories.  Did the Cypriot banks take the money or not?
>>
>>
> 
> The Cyprus parliament voted to reject the deal.
> 
> ECB responded that it would provide "liquidity within existing rules."
> (Whatever that means).
> 
> Situation still surrounded by a cloud of speculation.

This imply they will stop giving them paper cash monday.
The Cyprus bank will become immediately illiquid and insolvent.

Mirco



From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Mar 22 15:38:05 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 15:38:05 +0000
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <514C6F40.3060408@libero.it>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
 <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita>
 <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgGa4jhONE6gwTvNEGKJoe3oVcx4pO4kW=M9RbGX8svPA@mail.gmail.com>
 <514C6F40.3060408@libero.it>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjSQdggL+qYczr2Lr_8cy_dPER6wyQTUt9j3KfDyXWFXg@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 2:48 PM, Mirco Romanato  wrote:
> This imply they will stop giving them paper cash monday.
> The Cyprus bank will become immediately illiquid and insolvent.
>
>

Or they might be issuing Cyprus pounds instead of euros.
They can print as many of these as they require.

BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar 22 16:27:07 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 09:27:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjSQdggL+qYczr2Lr_8cy_dPER6wyQTUt9j3KfDyXWFXg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita> <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgGa4jhONE6gwTvNEGKJoe3oVcx4pO4kW=M9RbGX8svPA@mail.gmail.com>
 <514C6F40.3060408@libero.it>
 <CAL_armjSQdggL+qYczr2Lr_8cy_dPER6wyQTUt9j3KfDyXWFXg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <019d01ce271a$18d1d200$4a757600$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] cyprus banks

On Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 2:48 PM, Mirco Romanato  wrote:
>>... This imply they will stop giving them paper cash monday.
> The Cyprus bank will become immediately illiquid and insolvent.


>...Or they might be issuing Cyprus pounds instead of euros.
They can print as many of these as they require.

BillK
_______________________________________________

One of the memes on InTrade was: any nation currently using the euro would
stop using it or withdraw from that currency.

Had not InTrade gone out of business suddenly under suspicious circumstances

(http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/)

it would be interesting to see how they would adjudicate that meme.  If
Cyprus technically still used euros but started minting their own currency
as well, would that pay as a true on euro withdrawal?

That euro-withdrawal thing was one I would have bet on, had I ever gained
sufficient confidence in InTrade.  Reasoning:  the price on that meme was
crazy low.  It was trading in the 30s when I estimated the likelihood of
Greece's withdrawal at somewhere in the 70s.  It looks as foreseeable as the
sunrise that the less responsible nations must gain control over their own
currency, so they can devaluate it at will.  I just don't see how they can
maintain a common currency with the highly industrialized, self-disciplined
countries such as Germany and Sweden.

Note to any Greeks present: my humble and sincere apologies, no insult
intended, honest.  This is me, I have no malice, I am just reading the
numbers.  I am just reading the numbers on my own nation too, and I know
what is coming here as well.  We yanks, and most of Europe, have been and
are now living way beyond our means, waaaay beyond.  Eventually the bills
come due.  Ours are due.

spike




From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Mar 22 16:47:48 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 09:47:48 -0700
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjSQdggL+qYczr2Lr_8cy_dPER6wyQTUt9j3KfDyXWFXg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
 <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita>
 <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgGa4jhONE6gwTvNEGKJoe3oVcx4pO4kW=M9RbGX8svPA@mail.gmail.com>
 <514C6F40.3060408@libero.it>
 <CAL_armjSQdggL+qYczr2Lr_8cy_dPER6wyQTUt9j3KfDyXWFXg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRaCyBrLZDZXKHuReqMJqUEpd2=L+dvMpo5VZVP=GjeLA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 8:38 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 2:48 PM, Mirco Romanato  wrote:
>> This imply they will stop giving them paper cash monday.
>> The Cyprus bank will become immediately illiquid and insolvent.
>
> Or they might be issuing Cyprus pounds instead of euros.
> They can print as many of these as they require.

Not unless they exit the Euro...which they might.


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Mar 22 16:46:58 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 10:46:58 -0600
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
 <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZBz+7_mjbE_Nt=j_zd+x3y6UKZvHfPbfXBD6erKn2fmQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 18, 2013 at 5:35 PM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
> Commentary by Europeans welcome please: if we extrapolate current trends,
> where does this lead?  What happens?  The government insists it cannot cut
> anything, and they already raised taxes.  So what happens then?

I'm not a European, but I do know a little history. There was this
funky little guy named Caligula who once had a little money flow
problem. He resolved (in part) his problem by naming many of the rich
older citizens of Rome as his relatives, then had them commit suicide
(or outright executed them) so that he could inherit their money. Such
a friendly thing to do... but desperate times call for desperate
measures.

I also believe that bitcoin could play a pretty major role if
everything goes to hell.

-Kelly


From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Mar 22 18:36:48 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 18:36:48 +0000
Subject: [ExI] US government sued over use of pesticides linked to bee harm
Message-ID: <CAL_armijZGccx07T=XAvpkOvpuE5sJOLRZGmnAj6UOpMzirERA@mail.gmail.com>

Beekeepers, conservation and food campaigners accuse Environmental
Protection Agency of failing to protect the insects
<http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/22/us-government-sued-pesticides-bee-harm>

The lawsuit accuses the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of
failing to protect the insects ? which pollinate three-quarters of all
food crops ? from nerve agents that it says should be suspended from
use. Neonicotinoids, the world's most widely used insecticides, are
also facing the prospect of suspension in the European Union, after
the health commissioner pledged to press on with the proposed ban
despite opposition from the UK and Germany.

"America's beekeepers cannot survive for long with the toxic
environment EPA has supported," said Steve Ellis, a Minnesota and
California beekeeper and one of the plaintiffs who filed the suit at
the federal district court. "Bee-toxic pesticides in dozens of widely
used products, on top of many other stresses our industry faces, are
killing our bees."
-----------


BillK



From giulio at gmail.com  Fri Mar 22 18:45:57 2013
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 19:45:57 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Wikipedia again
Message-ID: <CAKTCJyeoMD3196ecQzX=324BWaeO+8RBH3yDQg5K=L35B=Ok5w@mail.gmail.com>

The deplorable status of Wikipedia pages related to futurism and
transhumanism has been discussed many times. Many active Wikipedia
editors, and especially the most zealot ones, seem biased against our
ideas and inject (at least) a slight anti-transhumanist bias in
Wikipedia.

In the past, sometimes we have managed to correct some mistakes and
force some of the anti-transhumanist editors to be more reasonable,
but it has taken a lot of work, energy and endurance, as many of you
will remember.

I remember that we started some kind of Wikipedia task force, some
good results. I think we should revive the task force. The recent
remarkable growth of Wikipedia (which I am very happy to see) results
in Wikipedia pages being usually the very first result of google
searches.

Ideas anyone? Who wishes to help?


From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar 22 19:48:15 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 12:48:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] US government sued over use of pesticides linked to bee
	harm
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armijZGccx07T=XAvpkOvpuE5sJOLRZGmnAj6UOpMzirERA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armijZGccx07T=XAvpkOvpuE5sJOLRZGmnAj6UOpMzirERA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <002401ce2736$34ff58f0$9efe0ad0$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: [ExI] US government sued over use of pesticides linked to bee harm

Beekeepers, conservation and food campaigners accuse Environmental Protection Agency of failing to protect the insects <http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/22/us-government-sued-pesticides-bee-harm>
...
----------- BillK

_______________________________________________

Hi BillK, thanks.  I have been gathering data, but I didn't really know how applicable it is to this forum.  It isn't really a transhumanist issue in any way other than our human side likes to eat.

Just in the past few days, I can say with confidence that the local bee count is down by an estimated one and a half orders of magnitude, and possibly two orders.  My climbing honeysuckle vine in the back yard blossomed in the past four days.  Ordinarily the buzz from that is most delightful.  Now there is almost nothing.  Yesterday exactly one honeybee, and one Carpenter bee:

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.hamiltoninspections.com/HAMPICS/DISK%25201/carpenter-bee-resting-on-my-hand.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.hamiltoninspections.com/cb.htm&h=373&w=500&sz=83&tbnid=3_Z33x_QPAuK8M:&tbnh=98&tbnw=131&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dcarpenter%2Bbee%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=carpenter+bee&usg=__Xpsb-PpwvTTkrRgCRuLkwwoXnXE=&docid=tcmxaUxiyjeD9M&hl=en&sa=X&ei=27BMUerhMo3PiwLx-YH4Cw&sqi=2&ved=0CE8Q9QEwAg&dur=1529

Today, no honeybees visible after ten full minutes of inspection, one Carpenter bee, two alkali bees and one (I think) Nomia melanderi, although if that last one really is a melanderi I can't explain why she's here, and I am not an expert in any case.  The minority bees which previously almost completely escaped detection, lost in the buzz, are now the majority.  I have seen more Carpenter bees than honeybees this year.

Here's an observation: last year was a really good bee season.  My two orange trees produced the biggest crop ever: the tree was so burdened with fruit I had to prop up the branches to prevent their failing under the load.  We gave away oranges like Santa Claus on meth, ate them like three pac-people, still have plenty of fruit left.  Next year we may get nada.

My best local data-tree blossomed two days ago and is reaching its peak.  I was just out there: exactly one honeybee.  In the case of that tree and my backyard vine on this nice sunny warm clear day, both trees should have over 100 honeybees.  So I would argue we are down two orders of magnitude locally.

We had a private bee watcher group, but the young lady who was doing the heavy lifting isn't with us now.  Her daughter was a second grader at that school in Newtown Connecticut where that maniac shot up that first grade classroom.  Queen Bee's daughter was not physically harmed, but mother and daughter were emotionally shattered, quite understandably.  In December she made a terse announcement to our group that she was changing her life, leaving everything for now, might be back at some time in the future, don't try to contact, etc.  So we must now treat those several years of data as lost.  So now I am hoping to rebuild a new bee watch group, set up some kind of public website and so forth, arranged for a domain, rainier66.com, but haven't made that ready yet.  Don't give up on me.

In the meantime, look around you please.  Is anyone else here missing their bees this spring?  I feel like Rachel Carson, only it's fifty years later, and it isn't the birds suddenly missing, it's the bees.

spike




From sparge at gmail.com  Fri Mar 22 19:59:44 2013
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 15:59:44 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Wikipedia again
In-Reply-To: <CAKTCJyeoMD3196ecQzX=324BWaeO+8RBH3yDQg5K=L35B=Ok5w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAKTCJyeoMD3196ecQzX=324BWaeO+8RBH3yDQg5K=L35B=Ok5w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2eEtDZGid_=fRCa73o9DQ8jDheUsm82x62wSvmBN53oGw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 2:45 PM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> Ideas anyone? Who wishes to help?
>

As long as the goal is adding content or correcting actual mistakes, I'm
in. I don't have a lot of time to commit to it, though. But I'm not
interesting in trying to implement pro-futurism spin.

-Dave
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From anders at aleph.se  Fri Mar 22 22:23:27 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 22:23:27 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Wikipedia again
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2eEtDZGid_=fRCa73o9DQ8jDheUsm82x62wSvmBN53oGw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAKTCJyeoMD3196ecQzX=324BWaeO+8RBH3yDQg5K=L35B=Ok5w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2eEtDZGid_=fRCa73o9DQ8jDheUsm82x62wSvmBN53oGw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <514CD9DF.7070208@aleph.se>

On 22/03/2013 19:59, Dave Sill wrote:
> On Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 2:45 PM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com 
> <mailto:giulio at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
>
>     Ideas anyone? Who wishes to help?
>
>
> As long as the goal is adding content or correcting actual mistakes, 
> I'm in. I don't have a lot of time to commit to it, though. But I'm 
> not interesting in trying to implement pro-futurism spin.
>

Exactly. I like doing updates as "good deed of the day". (Today I did 
Uppsala?sen, an esker ridge in Sweden)

So, what topics do merit new entries?

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University

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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Mar 23 03:58:59 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2013 20:58:59 -0700
Subject: [ExI] planck surveyor maps oldest light
Message-ID: <002001ce277a$c057dc80$41079580$@rainier66.com>

 
 
This boggles the hell out of my mind.  Why should there be features or
asymmetry at all?  If I had been there before the Big Bang, I would have
predicted the expansion of the early universe should have produced a
perfectly uniform inflation.  But that apparently isn't what happened:
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21866464
 
The more I ponder this map, the crazier it seems to me.  How did asymmetry
of any kind ever form?  Why did matter clump here but not there?  What was
wrong with there?  What was right with here?
 
spike
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Mar 23 08:10:55 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 23 Mar 2013 08:10:55 +0000
Subject: [ExI] planck surveyor maps oldest light
In-Reply-To: <002001ce277a$c057dc80$41079580$@rainier66.com>
References: <002001ce277a$c057dc80$41079580$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armiAJyh-cJqtHGxNUBN=yANDhUdwkWJPmhNyMxGDzxMx3g@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Mar 23, 2013 at 3:58 AM, spike wrote:
> This boggles the hell out of my mind.  Why should there be features or
> asymmetry at all?  If I had been there before the Big Bang, I would have
> predicted the expansion of the early universe should have produced a
> perfectly uniform inflation.  But that apparently isn?t what happened:
>
> The more I ponder this map, the crazier it seems to me.  How did asymmetry
> of any kind ever form?  Why did matter clump here but not there?  What was
> wrong with there?  What was right with here?
>

It goes right back to quantum instability at the lowest level.

>From the Planck site:
<http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Space_Science/Planck/Planck_reveals_an_almost_perfect_Universe>

 The image is based on the initial 15.5 months of data from Planck and
is the mission?s first all-sky picture of the oldest light in our
Universe, imprinted on the sky when it was just 380 000 years old.
At that time, the young Universe was filled with a hot dense soup of
interacting protons, electrons and photons at about 2700?C. When the
protons and electrons joined to form hydrogen atoms, the light was set
free. As the Universe has expanded, this light today has been
stretched out to microwave wavelengths, equivalent to a temperature of
just 2.7 degrees above absolute zero.

This ?cosmic microwave background? ? CMB ? shows tiny temperature
fluctuations that correspond to regions of slightly different
densities at very early times, representing the seeds of all future
structure: the stars and galaxies of today.
According to the standard model of cosmology, the fluctuations arose
immediately after the Big Bang and were stretched to cosmologically
large scales during a brief period of accelerated expansion known as
inflation.
-------------------------

Phil Platt has a good article at:
<http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/03/21/age_of_the_universe_planck_results_show_universe_is_13_82_billion_years.html>

Quote:
The light from the early Universe shows it?s not smooth. If you crank
the contrast way up you see slightly brighter and slightly dimmer
spots. These correspond to changes in temperature of the Universe on a
scale of 1 part in 100,000. That?s incredibly small, but has profound
implications. We think those fluctuations were imprinted on the
Universe when it was only a trillionth of a trillionth of a second
old, and they grew with the Universe as it expanded. They were also
the seeds of the galaxies and the clusters and galaxies we see today.

What started out as quantum fluctuations when the Universe was smaller
than a proton have now grown to be the largest structures in the
cosmos, hundreds of millions of light years across. Let that settle in
your brain a moment.
----------


BillK



From giulio at gmail.com  Sat Mar 23 10:39:15 2013
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Sat, 23 Mar 2013 11:39:15 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Wikipedia again
In-Reply-To: <CAKTCJyeoMD3196ecQzX=324BWaeO+8RBH3yDQg5K=L35B=Ok5w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAKTCJyeoMD3196ecQzX=324BWaeO+8RBH3yDQg5K=L35B=Ok5w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAKTCJyfq-97UK9+_B+tNvnCvDORLkMa2QcoEQH-S=ZXCdvXPgg@mail.gmail.com>

Thanks to all those who want to help. First task:

Wikipedia reports libel against Hans Moravec and Ray Kurzweil: ""dog
excrements" (for those who need a translation, that means dogshit).
This is far too much, please add your voice here and say loud and
clear that the quote must be removed immediately:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Ray_Kurzweil#Hofstadter_criticism

On Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 7:45 PM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
> The deplorable status of Wikipedia pages related to futurism and
> transhumanism has been discussed many times. Many active Wikipedia
> editors, and especially the most zealot ones, seem biased against our
> ideas and inject (at least) a slight anti-transhumanist bias in
> Wikipedia.
>
> In the past, sometimes we have managed to correct some mistakes and
> force some of the anti-transhumanist editors to be more reasonable,
> but it has taken a lot of work, energy and endurance, as many of you
> will remember.
>
> I remember that we started some kind of Wikipedia task force, some
> good results. I think we should revive the task force. The recent
> remarkable growth of Wikipedia (which I am very happy to see) results
> in Wikipedia pages being usually the very first result of google
> searches.
>
> Ideas anyone? Who wishes to help?


From giulio at gmail.com  Sat Mar 23 10:41:08 2013
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Sat, 23 Mar 2013 11:41:08 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Wikipedia again
In-Reply-To: <CAKTCJyfq-97UK9+_B+tNvnCvDORLkMa2QcoEQH-S=ZXCdvXPgg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAKTCJyeoMD3196ecQzX=324BWaeO+8RBH3yDQg5K=L35B=Ok5w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJyfq-97UK9+_B+tNvnCvDORLkMa2QcoEQH-S=ZXCdvXPgg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAKTCJyd6mSOc8fHaP8MDuQiHrTKqPb5mNACj3Xy3AOkwiyJLZw@mail.gmail.com>

Direct link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Ray_Kurzweil#Hofstadter_criticism
Please please add your voice here and say loud and clear that the
quote must be removed immediately

On Sat, Mar 23, 2013 at 11:39 AM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
> Thanks to all those who want to help. First task:
>
> Wikipedia reports libel against Hans Moravec and Ray Kurzweil: ""dog
> excrements" (for those who need a translation, that means dogshit).
> This is far too much, please add your voice here and say loud and
> clear that the quote must be removed immediately:
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Ray_Kurzweil#Hofstadter_criticism
>
> On Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 7:45 PM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
>> The deplorable status of Wikipedia pages related to futurism and
>> transhumanism has been discussed many times. Many active Wikipedia
>> editors, and especially the most zealot ones, seem biased against our
>> ideas and inject (at least) a slight anti-transhumanist bias in
>> Wikipedia.
>>
>> In the past, sometimes we have managed to correct some mistakes and
>> force some of the anti-transhumanist editors to be more reasonable,
>> but it has taken a lot of work, energy and endurance, as many of you
>> will remember.
>>
>> I remember that we started some kind of Wikipedia task force, some
>> good results. I think we should revive the task force. The recent
>> remarkable growth of Wikipedia (which I am very happy to see) results
>> in Wikipedia pages being usually the very first result of google
>> searches.
>>
>> Ideas anyone? Who wishes to help?


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sat Mar 23 17:37:35 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sat, 23 Mar 2013 13:37:35 -0400
Subject: [ExI] planck surveyor maps oldest light
In-Reply-To: <002001ce277a$c057dc80$41079580$@rainier66.com>
References: <002001ce277a$c057dc80$41079580$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2ihq9mxhKEMMMqTB7TqMWoR4mHDw5Gk62mWpCk3UQzTw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 11:58 PM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

> This boggles the hell out of my mind.  Why should there be features or
> asymmetry at all?  If I had been there before the Big Bang, I would have
> predicted the expansion of the early universe should have produced a
> perfectly uniform inflation.  But that apparently isn?t what happened:
>  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21866464
>  The more I ponder this map, the crazier it seems to me.  How did
> asymmetry of any kind ever form?  Why did matter clump here but not there?
> What was wrong with there?  What was right with here?
>

These are all excellent questions and I wish I had excellent answers but I
don't. You wouldn't expect perfect symmetry because of random quantum
fluctuations but we're looking at a picture of the universe when it was
only 380,000 years old so it only had that long to grow, so you wouldn't
think any feature in the microwave sky would be larger than 380,000 light
years across, but these asymmetrical features are vastly larger than that.
Very odd. The only explanation that immediately comes to mind is a
interaction with another universe, but I'm probably overlooking something.

  John K Clark
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Sat Mar 23 17:29:16 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Sat, 23 Mar 2013 09:29:16 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>

"German engineering company Bosch said Friday that it is abandoning
its solar energy business, because there is no way to make it
economically viable.'We have considered the latest technological
advances, cost-reduction potential and strategic alignment, and there
have also been talks with potential partners,' Bosch CEO Volkmar
Denner said. 'However, none of these possibilities resulted in a
solution for the solar energy division that would be economically
viable over the long term.'"

http://phys.org/news/2013-03-bosch-abandon-solar-energy-business.html


From painlord2k at libero.it  Sat Mar 23 21:07:40 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Sat, 23 Mar 2013 22:07:40 +0100
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRaCyBrLZDZXKHuReqMJqUEpd2=L+dvMpo5VZVP=GjeLA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita> <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita> <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgGa4jhONE6gwTvNEGKJoe3oVcx4pO4kW=M9RbGX8svPA@mail.gmail.com>
 <514C6F40.3060408@libero.it>
 <CAL_armjSQdggL+qYczr2Lr_8cy_dPER6wyQTUt9j3KfDyXWFXg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNRaCyBrLZDZXKHuReqMJqUEpd2=L+dvMpo5VZVP=GjeLA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <514E199C.6010201@libero.it>

Il 22/03/2013 17:47, Adrian Tymes ha scritto:
> On Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 8:38 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 2:48 PM, Mirco Romanato  wrote:
>>> This imply they will stop giving them paper cash monday.
>>> The Cyprus bank will become immediately illiquid and insolvent.
>>
>> Or they might be issuing Cyprus pounds instead of euros.
>> They can print as many of these as they require.
> 
> Not unless they exit the Euro...which they might.

There are as many dollarized economies around the world (places where
the currency is the US$ but they are not the US) as eurized economies
around the world (places where the ? is the currency even if the place
is not in the Eurozone).

Cyprus out of the Euro imply the Central Bank of Cyprus is unable to
obtain ? from the ECB and is unable to have any say about the ECB policy.

Cyprus people can and will continue to use ? as they wish to accept them
in payment for goods and services. Like in Argentina the people accept
US$ in payment for goods and services and prefer them to pesos.

Cyprus government and Cyprus central bank can issue as much as Cyprus
pounds as they wish, people will prefer a sounder money to something not
worth the paper used.

Mirco



From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Mar 25 12:03:21 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 25 Mar 2013 13:03:21 +0100
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
Message-ID: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>


This is considerably worse than I expected:

http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG-update2013_long_18_03_2013.pdf


From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Mar 25 14:46:26 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 25 Mar 2013 15:46:26 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>

On Sat, Mar 23, 2013 at 09:29:16AM -0800, Keith Henson wrote:
> "German engineering company Bosch said Friday that it is abandoning
> its solar energy business, because there is no way to make it
> economically viable.'We have considered the latest technological
> advances, cost-reduction potential and strategic alignment, and there
> have also been talks with potential partners,' Bosch CEO Volkmar
> Denner said. 'However, none of these possibilities resulted in a
> solution for the solar energy division that would be economically
> viable over the long term.'"
> 
> http://phys.org/news/2013-03-bosch-abandon-solar-energy-business.html

If you've looked at the the last 3 years of PV growth world wide
the growth was flat, i.e. no longer accelerating. As Europe
(Germany and Italy) stay at constant deployment rate, and the
rest of the world is not yet capable to pick up the slack
this will obviously cause massive consolidation, even in  
the Far East.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/21/business/energy-environment/chinese-solar-companys-operating-unit-declares-bankruptcy.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

That is a far more interesting story than Bosch exiting
the field.


From anders at aleph.se  Mon Mar 25 14:47:36 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 25 Mar 2013 14:47:36 +0000
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <51506388.9090109@aleph.se>

On 25/03/2013 12:03, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> This is considerably worse than I expected:
>

Would you have posted a link to a report that was more optimistic than 
you expect?

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University



From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Mar 25 15:22:01 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 25 Mar 2013 16:22:01 +0100
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <51506388.9090109@aleph.se>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org> <51506388.9090109@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20130325152201.GD6172@leitl.org>

On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 02:47:36PM +0000, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> On 25/03/2013 12:03, Eugen Leitl wrote:
>> This is considerably worse than I expected:
>>
>
> Would you have posted a link to a report that was more optimistic than  
> you expect?

Sure, if it was credible. Let's see what TOD will make
from it.


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Mar 25 17:36:41 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 25 Mar 2013 13:36:41 -0400
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 25, 2013  Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

>
> > This is considerably worse than I expected:
>
> http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG-update2013_long_18_03_2013.pdf
>

I confess I was a bit put off by one of the first sentences in the article
"the shortage of fossil and nuclear energy resources [...]" . It turns out
that by "nuclear energy resources" they mean U 235 and only U 235, a
whopping .007 of mined Uranium. The latent energy locked up in U238 that
can be released in breeders is not even mentioned. Now don't get me wrong
I'm not a great fan of Uranium breeders, but you should at least mention
them. And far far worse the word "Thorium" is not used in the entire long
article, not once. A shortage of nuclear energy resources?

Also the term "Methane Clathrate" is not used one time in the article even
though it contains twice as much energy as all the world's petroleum, coal,
natural gas, oil shale, and every other fossil fuel combined. I think
something like that at least deserves a mention even if you later dismiss
it for some reason, but they're pretending it doesn't exist. A shortage of
fossil fuel energy resources?

  John K Clark
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From jrd1415 at gmail.com  Mon Mar 25 19:04:04 2013
From: jrd1415 at gmail.com (Jeff Davis)
Date: Mon, 25 Mar 2013 13:04:04 -0600
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAHUTwkNH=+ba0KCpNyMrrrYXgk+aPtmRv4wx7No+WOEFOjmg1A@mail.gmail.com>

Thanks, John.


On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 11:36 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Mon, Mar 25, 2013  Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>
>>
>> > This is considerably worse than I expected:
>>
>> http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG-update2013_long_18_03_2013.pdf
>>
>
> I confess I was a bit put off by one of the first sentences in the article
> "the shortage of fossil and nuclear energy resources [...]" . It turns out
> that by "nuclear energy resources" they mean U 235 and only U 235, a
> whopping .007 of mined Uranium. The latent energy locked up in U238 that
> can be released in breeders is not even mentioned. Now don't get me wrong
> I'm not a great fan of Uranium breeders, but you should at least mention
> them. And far far worse the word "Thorium" is not used in the entire long
> article, not once. A shortage of nuclear energy resources?
>
> Also the term "Methane Clathrate" is not used one time in the article even
> though it contains twice as much energy as all the world's petroleum, coal,
> natural gas, oil shale, and every other fossil fuel combined. I think
> something like that at least deserves a mention even if you later dismiss
> it for some reason, but they're pretending it doesn't exist. A shortage of
> fossil fuel energy resources?
>
>   John K Clark
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Mar 25 20:22:06 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 25 Mar 2013 21:22:06 +0100
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <CAHUTwkNH=+ba0KCpNyMrrrYXgk+aPtmRv4wx7No+WOEFOjmg1A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAHUTwkNH=+ba0KCpNyMrrrYXgk+aPtmRv4wx7No+WOEFOjmg1A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20130325202206.GS6172@leitl.org>

On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 01:04:04PM -0600, Jeff Davis wrote:
> Thanks, John.

I don't see what you're thanking him for, but I guess there's
a reason why it's 2013, and we're more fucked than ever.

If total peak fossil is indeed only 7 years away, and if the
net energy cliff of it looks even remotely like oil
net energy decline
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-L_lp0BzWamM/UQ4eCC_r6RI/AAAAAAAAHdg/bGYr9h_cUfw/s1600/sunset+of+petroleum_html_781e6bbe.png
that's gonna be hella party. Stock up on party hats
and confetti.
 
> 
> On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 11:36 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> > On Mon, Mar 25, 2013  Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> >
> >>
> >> > This is considerably worse than I expected:
> >>
> >> http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG-update2013_long_18_03_2013.pdf
> >>
> >
> > I confess I was a bit put off by one of the first sentences in the article
> > "the shortage of fossil and nuclear energy resources [...]" . It turns out
> > that by "nuclear energy resources" they mean U 235 and only U 235, a
> > whopping .007 of mined Uranium. The latent energy locked up in U238 that
> > can be released in breeders is not even mentioned. Now don't get me wrong
> > I'm not a great fan of Uranium breeders, but you should at least mention
> > them. And far far worse the word "Thorium" is not used in the entire long
> > article, not once. A shortage of nuclear energy resources?
> >
> > Also the term "Methane Clathrate" is not used one time in the article even
> > though it contains twice as much energy as all the world's petroleum, coal,
> > natural gas, oil shale, and every other fossil fuel combined. I think
> > something like that at least deserves a mention even if you later dismiss
> > it for some reason, but they're pretending it doesn't exist. A shortage of
> > fossil fuel energy resources?
> >
> >   John K Clark
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > extropy-chat mailing list
> > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
> >
> >

> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE


From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Mar 25 20:34:12 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 25 Mar 2013 20:34:12 +0000
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <20130325202206.GS6172@leitl.org>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAHUTwkNH=+ba0KCpNyMrrrYXgk+aPtmRv4wx7No+WOEFOjmg1A@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325202206.GS6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjBCr-7HxoaQ0NLWb8WoM-_CoT-k+nig67s_BLnbGgThQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 8:22 PM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> If total peak fossil is indeed only 7 years away, and if the
> net energy cliff of it looks even remotely like oil
> net energy decline
> http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-L_lp0BzWamM/UQ4eCC_r6RI/AAAAAAAAHdg/bGYr9h_cUfw/s1600/sunset+of+petroleum_html_781e6bbe.png
> that's gonna be hella party. Stock up on party hats
> and confetti.


It probably won't be a cliff. More of an increasingly steep hill to climb.
In the UK, petrol prices are already making people think 'Is my
journey really necessary? And is it worth the cost?'. In cities, some
people are getting rid of their car.
The cost of household electricity and gas is causing people to adjust
their budget and lifestyle. i.e. Put on an extra sweater and turn the
central heating down a few degrees.

The cliff won't arrive until a resource is not available at any price.
Then the war starts.


BillK


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Tue Mar 26 01:24:16 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Tue, 26 Mar 2013 02:24:16 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] cyprus banks
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303201942100.25089@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <000c01ce2399$920c6f60$b6254e20$@rainier66.com>
 <op.wt4rxqp50wog37@nikita>
 <00fb01ce2431$3814fca0$a83ef5e0$@rainier66.com> <op.wt6o2ds00wog37@nikita>
 <00c401ce24dc$051e9b20$0f5bd160$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNTmwAj3=6epquTOydPUQCTYSGL+zcYnt-SJqVOgP67PWA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5148E655.2030705@libero.it>
 <CALAdGNRbZPubhY9PGLNJ9WLxWNaNN5QdhLegGP77tZeFh0vVjA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5149D9D4.2070303@libero.it> <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303201942100.25089@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303260220260.9453@tau.ceti.pl>

On Wed, 20 Mar 2013, Tomasz Rola wrote:

> On Wed, 20 Mar 2013, Mirco Romanato wrote:
> 
> [...]
> > http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/3/19_Sinclair_-_Cyprus_Disaster_Is_Much_Bigger_Than_Being_Reported.html
> > 
> > http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/3/18_Sinclair_-_All_Hell_Is_Breaking_Loose_After_Cyprus_Catastrophe.html
> > 
> > http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/3/20_Sinclair_-_The_Next_Danger_After_Putin_Crushes_IMF_In_Cyprus.html
> 
> Those articles may be right but there are some suppositions I find a 
> little hard to believe, like:
> 
[...]
> 
> So I liked the articles as presenting things from another angle, but I 
> don't buy it as total, finished explanation.

Perhaps there is some connection to be made. But I haven't checked too 
much of this, so you can read it however you (and autotranslator) please:

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wprost.pl%2Fblogi%2Fsylwester_latkowski%2F%3FB%3D1825

The map looks interesting:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Major_russian_gas_pipelines_to_europe.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nabuccostream.png

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue Mar 26 13:35:15 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Tue, 26 Mar 2013 09:35:15 -0400
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <20130325202206.GS6172@leitl.org>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAHUTwkNH=+ba0KCpNyMrrrYXgk+aPtmRv4wx7No+WOEFOjmg1A@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325202206.GS6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3A7160XdgBbHXSasqLn=kHipFudpE0u4QzDX2xqbB2vg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

 Jeff Davis wrote:
>


> > Thanks, John.
>>
>
> >I don't see what you're thanking him for


Perhaps it was for making true statements that needed to be said about a
article that was supposed to be about "the shortage of fossil and nuclear
energy resources"; but perhaps you found a error in something I said, if so
I'd like to hear it.


> > If total peak fossil is indeed only 7 years away [...]
>

Then the current global warming panic is totally unwarranted and the
environmentalists should stop bellyaching about it and just shut up and let
us enjoy without guilt the few remaining years we have remaining before the
inevitable zombie apocalypse engulfs us all.

  John K Clark
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue Mar 26 14:26:48 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Tue, 26 Mar 2013 10:26:48 -0400
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjBCr-7HxoaQ0NLWb8WoM-_CoT-k+nig67s_BLnbGgThQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAHUTwkNH=+ba0KCpNyMrrrYXgk+aPtmRv4wx7No+WOEFOjmg1A@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325202206.GS6172@leitl.org>
 <CAL_armjBCr-7HxoaQ0NLWb8WoM-_CoT-k+nig67s_BLnbGgThQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2jGxLYD23pk4+DfyFMqWCwFYNaCLH5GKjEbp48D6jAVw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 4:34 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> The cliff won't arrive until a resource is not available at any price.
>

The day when energy is not available at any price is not far off if the
green people have their way, and that exposes the inherent contradiction in
their position. Let's assume for the sake of argument the the
environmentalists are 100% correct about the dangers inherent in nuclear
energy, but lets also assume they are correct about the energy shortage
catastrophe that will destroy civilization and kill most people; in that
case I say lets slap together nuclear reactors just as fast as we can and I
don't give a damn if there is a Fukushima level nuclear disaster every
goddamned day.

What about renewable energy like solar I hear you say, well it doesn't
work. Bosch is getting out of the solar energy business and the largest
photovoltaic manufacture in the world just declared bankruptcy because even
with ridiculous tax incentives that distort reality in its favor, with
existing technology photovoltaics can not produce electricity at anywhere
near the price that fossil fuel or nuclear reactors can; powering a steel
blast furnace with a windmill is not practical either. And thorium reactors
are just as renewable as solar is, we will run out of thorium on the earth
about the same time as we run out of hydrogen in the sun.

> Then the war starts.
>

I could be wrong but it sounds to me like you can't wait for that to happen
and for the masses to get their just punishment for their profligate ways.
Environmentalists are like preachers in that both like to talk about the
horrors of hell.

  John K Clark
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Mar 26 21:39:13 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Tue, 26 Mar 2013 15:39:13 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 8:46 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>> http://phys.org/news/2013-03-bosch-abandon-solar-energy-business.html

Here is the first comment on that article:

"This is exactly what happens when governments try and push a
technology that is not ready for large scale manufacturing.
Fundamental research is still underway and is needed to be much
further along prior to the advent of mass production of efficient and
cheap solar panels. Will it be ready next week? Not likely. Will it be
ready for that in 10 years? Probably. It's a shame most politicians
are lawyers (at least in the U.S.) and not businessmen, engineers, or
scientists. Any of those three actually understand how this works!"


I could not have said it better myself. Solar has been propped up
unnaturally by government interference for years. They can never
succeed until they can succeed on their own.

-Kelly


From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Tue Mar 26 22:52:43 2013
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Tue, 26 Mar 2013 17:52:43 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPd1Nz22zLtzh3y1L3xOf8BciG+GhY8fEwT2jRGPmTTzVQ@mail.gmail.com>

Would the oil industry be so successful without massive tax cuts and
subsides from the government?
Giovanni

On Tue, Mar 26, 2013 at 4:39 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>wrote:

> On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 8:46 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> >> http://phys.org/news/2013-03-bosch-abandon-solar-energy-business.html
>
> Here is the first comment on that article:
>
> "This is exactly what happens when governments try and push a
> technology that is not ready for large scale manufacturing.
> Fundamental research is still underway and is needed to be much
> further along prior to the advent of mass production of efficient and
> cheap solar panels. Will it be ready next week? Not likely. Will it be
> ready for that in 10 years? Probably. It's a shame most politicians
> are lawyers (at least in the U.S.) and not businessmen, engineers, or
> scientists. Any of those three actually understand how this works!"
>
>
> I could not have said it better myself. Solar has been propped up
> unnaturally by government interference for years. They can never
> succeed until they can succeed on their own.
>
> -Kelly
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Mar 26 21:30:35 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Tue, 26 Mar 2013 15:30:35 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8Rwbm3Stp61ZHCEusCexgN41j4gE4xSc9yo6hQNCTxETWLg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 8:46 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Sat, Mar 23, 2013 at 09:29:16AM -0800, Keith Henson wrote:
>> "German engineering company Bosch said Friday that it is abandoning
>> its solar energy business, because there is no way to make it
>> economically viable.'We have considered the latest technological
>> advances, cost-reduction potential and strategic alignment, and there
>> have also been talks with potential partners,' Bosch CEO Volkmar
>> Denner said. 'However, none of these possibilities resulted in a
>> solution for the solar energy division that would be economically
>> viable over the long term.'"
>>
>> http://phys.org/news/2013-03-bosch-abandon-solar-energy-business.html
>
> If you've looked at the the last 3 years of PV growth world wide
> the growth was flat, i.e. no longer accelerating. As Europe
> (Germany and Italy) stay at constant deployment rate, and the
> rest of the world is not yet capable to pick up the slack
> this will obviously cause massive consolidation, even in
> the Far East.
>
> http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/21/business/energy-environment/chinese-solar-companys-operating-unit-declares-bankruptcy.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
>
> That is a far more interesting story than Bosch exiting
> the field.

Bosch exiting the field is probably just a reflection of advancing
technologies in the USA and decreased labor costs in China. The
Germans should stick with doing what they do best, big complicated
things like roller coasters, wind nacelles and cars and the like.

Globally, solar will do fine over the long term, even if some
companies bow out. Look at the history of cars... in the teens, there
were over a 100 car manufacturers in Indiana alone. Some consolidation
has to occur for global efficiency.

-Kelly


From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Mar 27 07:57:16 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2013 08:57:16 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8Rwbm3Stp61ZHCEusCexgN41j4gE4xSc9yo6hQNCTxETWLg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8Rwbm3Stp61ZHCEusCexgN41j4gE4xSc9yo6hQNCTxETWLg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20130327075716.GY6172@leitl.org>

On Tue, Mar 26, 2013 at 03:30:35PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> Bosch exiting the field is probably just a reflection of advancing
> technologies in the USA and decreased labor costs in China. The

Sorry, there are no advancing PV technologies in the USA.
Germany was a world leader in PV, until China took over.
The reason for current overcapacity is that Germany and
Italy now have flat demand, because Germany has killed
incentives stone cold dead, and because Italy is broke.

The labor costs had little to do with it, it's an issue
of availability of cheap dirty coal power and very few
environmental regulations, as well as subsidies from
the Chinese government. I expect temporary overcapacity
will be over in 2-3 years, with considerable consolidation
happening meanwhile.

> Germans should stick with doing what they do best, big complicated
> things like roller coasters, wind nacelles and cars and the like.
> 
> Globally, solar will do fine over the long term, even if some

I agree that solar will be fine, but we won't. Oil plateaued by
volume by ~2006, but net energy decline only started in earnest
in 2012. Everybody who could shifted to coal, but if coal (along with 
everything else) peaks in 7 years, and the net energy decline 
follows the fossil liquids, then 2030 will quite differ from
2013. We have a lot less time than we thought.

> companies bow out. Look at the history of cars... in the teens, there
> were over a 100 car manufacturers in Indiana alone. Some consolidation
> has to occur for global efficiency.


From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Mar 27 11:24:04 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2013 12:24:04 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org>

On Tue, Mar 26, 2013 at 03:39:13PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 8:46 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> >> http://phys.org/news/2013-03-bosch-abandon-solar-energy-business.html
> 
> Here is the first comment on that article:

Physorg is low-quality, and comments there are... not so good.
 
> "This is exactly what happens when governments try and push a
> technology that is not ready for large scale manufacturing.

Bzzt. You create new markets by temporary subsidies, which push
new technologies into economies of scale and establish
support infrastructure. This has happened. Malicious
and capricious slashing of subsidies in Germany to 
deliberately damage renewables and economic downturn 
in specific countries causing a stall in demand caused 
the Chinese bankruptcy.  (That Bosch couldn't compete 
in the globalized market was no surprise).

> Fundamental research is still underway and is needed to be much

No, Si is good enough. In fact, Si is so good that thin-film has
problems to compete against a mature technology and infrastructure.

> further along prior to the advent of mass production of efficient and

Efficiency is irrelevant, 17% is plenty.

> cheap solar panels. Will it be ready next week? Not likely. Will it be

Depends on where you are
http://www.solarbuzz.com/resources/analyst-insights/installed-pv-system-costs-continue-to-exhibit-strong-global-variations

> ready for that in 10 years? Probably. It's a shame most politicians

10 years? Renewables in Germany began in 1980, and seriously
in 2000. Infrastructure transitions are very expensive,
and happen on a 30-50 year scale. They also take a lot
of energy.

Chances are US has already missed the boat. But you seem
to think there's plenty of time, despite that the net
energy slide has already begun
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.it/2013/02/the-twilight-of-petroleum.html

> are lawyers (at least in the U.S.) and not businessmen, engineers, or
> scientists. Any of those three actually understand how this works!"
> 
> 
> I could not have said it better myself. Solar has been propped up
> unnaturally by government interference for years. They can never
> succeed until they can succeed on their own.

If solar doesn't succeed, we're dead. So perhaps I would try to
make it succeed, if I were you.

Of course humanity seems to enjoy whistling past the graveyard,
so perhaps it does harbor a collective death wish.


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Wed Mar 27 18:38:55 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2013 14:38:55 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0PMagJ4Szkm+qLJWm5ggKuf_Py=0Sy7a0fYeduAN+b_A@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Mar 27, 2013 at 7:24 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

 > there are no advancing PV technologies in the USA.
>

True, Solyndra had very advanced technology but apparently it wasn't
advanced enough because it went bankrupt in 2011.

> Germany was a world leader in PV, until China took over.
>

And now neither Germany nor China nor the USA nor anybody else can make any
money off of photovoltaics, and that fact should be telling you something.
Maybe solar technology has been as over-hyped as fusion technology has
been; both are the technology of the future and perhaps always will be. I
wouldn't bet my life on either one and I don't understand why you would.

> The reason for current overcapacity is that Germany and Italy now have
> flat demand, because Germany has killed
> incentives stone cold dead
>

In other words Germany has stopped lying to the free market and now
everybody knows that in reality electricity from the sun is much more
expensive than previously thought.

> Bzzt. You create new markets by temporary subsidies, which push new
> technologies into economies of scale
>

That's not how INTEL became huge, nor Microsoft, nor Apple, nor Amgen, nor
Google, nor Ebay, nor Amazon, nor Facebook, not even Standard oil. It might
make sense for the government to help pay for basic energy research, but
subsidizing a production product in the marketplace is nuts, it makes it
seem that a problem has been solved when it really has not been.

> Malicious and capricious slashing of subsidies in Germany to deliberately
> damage renewables [...]
>

In other words they stopped deceptively making it seem that electricity
from the sun was cheaper than it really was. Well you're correct about one
thing, all energy subsidies are going to be temporary because you can only
distort reality for so long; as Richard Feynman said "For a successful
technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature
cannot be fooled".

> Chances are US has already missed the boat.


OK, then there is no point in people in the USA worrying about it and
whatever will be will be.

> If solar doesn't succeed, we're dead.


If solar doesn't succeed, and recent developments make one think that maybe
just maybe it isn't the next big thing after all, then it might be wise to
have a plan B like nuclear energy and a plan C like methane clathrate ready
to go. Your plan B and that of all environmentalists is freeze to death in
the dark. It might be wise to at least talk about other ways to produce
energy than solar just in case; I mean if we're dead anyway what is there
to loose?

  John K Clark
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From painlord2k at libero.it  Wed Mar 27 19:20:13 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2013 20:20:13 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <20130327075716.GY6172@leitl.org>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8Rwbm3Stp61ZHCEusCexgN41j4gE4xSc9yo6hQNCTxETWLg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327075716.GY6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <5153466D.3000504@libero.it>

Il 27/03/2013 08:57, Eugen Leitl ha scritto:
> On Tue, Mar 26, 2013 at 03:30:35PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:

>> Germans should stick with doing what they do best, big complicated
>> things like roller coasters, wind nacelles and cars and the like.

>> Globally, solar will do fine over the long term, even if some

> I agree that solar will be fine, but we won't. Oil plateaued by
> volume by ~2006, but net energy decline only started in earnest
> in 2012. Everybody who could shifted to coal, but if coal (along with 
> everything else) peaks in 7 years, and the net energy decline 
> follows the fossil liquids, then 2030 will quite differ from
> 2013. We have a lot less time than we thought.

Three years to build a nuke plant.

Just stop to supply power to the people complying of nukes.
Give them the power produced by wind, solar and unicorn farts, at the
real cost and only what it is available. Both home and at their workplace.

This should be enough to make them reconsider their position.

Mirco


From painlord2k at libero.it  Wed Mar 27 19:57:08 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2013 20:57:08 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CAL+RtPd1Nz22zLtzh3y1L3xOf8BciG+GhY8fEwT2jRGPmTTzVQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPd1Nz22zLtzh3y1L3xOf8BciG+GhY8fEwT2jRGPmTTzVQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <51534F14.3060801@libero.it>

Il 26/03/2013 23:52, Giovanni Santostasi ha scritto:
> Would the oil industry be so successful without massive tax cuts and
> subsides from the government?
> Giovanni 

In Italy, with 2/3 of the price formed by taxes?
I would suppose so.
Take away the subsides and the taxes and stupid regulations with them.
The market can take care of itself. It did so for centuries before the
governments.


Mirco


From painlord2k at libero.it  Wed Mar 27 20:44:56 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2013 21:44:56 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <51535A48.70502@libero.it>

Il 27/03/2013 12:24, Eugen Leitl ha scritto:

>> I could not have said it better myself. Solar has been propped up
>> unnaturally by government interference for years. They can never
>> succeed until they can succeed on their own.

> If solar doesn't succeed, we're dead. So perhaps I would try to
> make it succeed, if I were you.

"We are dead" include you and who?
We politely disagree with your scenarios.

So, if you have a child, do you force him to learn how to walk with
crutches before teaching him how to walk without and then run?

Learning to walk is messy and result in many fall.
This is because you want your children learn it when they are little and
short. Their falls are shorter. So they survive and learn how to walk alone.

Your incentive schemes are well intentioned but the result sare always
the same: bubbles not able to last, because they are built on lies and
deceit and force.

> Of course humanity seems to enjoy whistling past the graveyard,
> so perhaps it does harbor a collective death wish.

I learned a few years ago that who worry for humanity rarely worry for
humans. Humanity is an abstraction, humans a reality.

Mirco


From mrjones2020 at gmail.com  Thu Mar 28 01:48:50 2013
From: mrjones2020 at gmail.com (J.R. Jones)
Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2013 21:48:50 -0400
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CADDVf2JLEiTma9VQEx6OQ6=fmsVUHGyUJkbNoYW6qJh=5jc9=w@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 1:36 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> Also the term "Methane Clathrate" is not used one time in the article even
> though it contains twice as much energy as all the world's petroleum, coal,
> natural gas, oil shale, and every other fossil fuel combined.


Fascinating stuff.  The warming of the oceans could have a huge effect on
this fossil supply as well, no?
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From mrjones2020 at gmail.com  Thu Mar 28 01:52:44 2013
From: mrjones2020 at gmail.com (J.R. Jones)
Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2013 21:52:44 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Energy boom in USA
In-Reply-To: <20130319074530.GO6172@leitl.org>
References: <CAJX-7wVJ+NVQW+1Ct8GTxVLc4bgW8iPXUs_eEu9nmpC1Zf5=uQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130319074530.GO6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CADDVf2JCvw1Wap6f6UsDYX9eXs8CYV15aJ7yz_Q=ftpW5QztZg@mail.gmail.com>

We've had them trying to get a well on our property for a while now.
Should we get it while the getting's good?  Or enjoy our clean well, and
serene environment?
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From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Mar 28 03:00:07 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2013 20:00:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Energy boom in USA
In-Reply-To: <CADDVf2JCvw1Wap6f6UsDYX9eXs8CYV15aJ7yz_Q=ftpW5QztZg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJX-7wVJ+NVQW+1Ct8GTxVLc4bgW8iPXUs_eEu9nmpC1Zf5=uQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130319074530.GO6172@leitl.org>
 <CADDVf2JCvw1Wap6f6UsDYX9eXs8CYV15aJ7yz_Q=ftpW5QztZg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNT+y+AoHF7TmiV3yi7ZU48Abvj3Srg9AtdF3ouXvB1tcg@mail.gmail.com>

That depends on many things - the price, for one.  If you do
go for it, make sure you have solid plans for how to invest
the money, especially if you can buy off the inconveniences
(such as getting pipes to pipe in water if you think the well
water's about to go bad).

On Wed, Mar 27, 2013 at 6:52 PM, J.R. Jones <mrjones2020 at gmail.com> wrote:
> We've had them trying to get a well on our property for a while now.  Should
> we get it while the getting's good?  Or enjoy our clean well, and serene
> environment?
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>


From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Thu Mar 28 06:07:20 2013
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 07:07:20 +0100
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <CADDVf2JLEiTma9VQEx6OQ6=fmsVUHGyUJkbNoYW6qJh=5jc9=w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CADDVf2JLEiTma9VQEx6OQ6=fmsVUHGyUJkbNoYW6qJh=5jc9=w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFTExsAyLWrKMYuVGymg6053WRqr4g+b6QPGfZcJBz0xJw@mail.gmail.com>

> The warming of the oceans could have a huge effect on this fossil supply
as well, no?

Deep down there is no warming. I very much doubt it is on the surface, but
sure none deep down, where those deposits are waiting.


On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 2:48 AM, J.R. Jones <mrjones2020 at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> On Mon, Mar 25, 2013 at 1:36 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Also the term "Methane Clathrate" is not used one time in the article
>> even though it contains twice as much energy as all the world's petroleum,
>> coal, natural gas, oil shale, and every other fossil fuel combined.
>
>
> Fascinating stuff.  The warming of the oceans could have a huge effect on
> this fossil supply as well, no?
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Mar 28 10:25:10 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 10:25:10 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Neonicotinoid pesticides 'damage brains of bees' reports
Message-ID: <CAL_armizXFWAueo_fDJSRS80UND6ry--0v43W-At77dx0xPnuQ@mail.gmail.com>

>From the BBC
Quote:
Scientists have found that two types of chemicals called
neonicotinoids and coumaphos are interfering with the insect's ability
to learn and remember.
Experiments revealed that exposure was also lowering brain activity,
especially when the two pesticides were used in combination.
The research is detailed in two papers in Nature Communications and
the Journal of Experimental Biology.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21958547

Dr Sally Williamson said: "It would imply that the bees are able to
forage less effectively, they are less able to find and learn and
remember and then communicate to their hive mates what the good
sources of pollen and nectar are."
She explained: "At the moment, the initial tests for bee toxicity are
giving the bees an acute dose and then watching them to see if they
die. "But because bees do these complex learning tasks, they are very
social animals and they have a complex behavioural repertoire, they
don't need to be killed outright in order not to be affected."
-----------

In the wild (instead of the lab) this may be quite difficult to prove
as there are many other factors in play. (Weather, disease, parasites,
etc.) Of course the manufacturers have seized on this point and said
that until it is proved in the wild, there is no reason to ban these
products.


BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Mar 28 10:30:45 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 11:30:45 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
Message-ID: <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>

On Wed, Mar 27, 2013 at 09:44:56PM +0100, Mirco Romanato wrote:

> > If solar doesn't succeed, we're dead. So perhaps I would try to
> > make it succeed, if I were you.
> 
> "We are dead" include you and who?

In absence of cheap, abundant energy the carrying
capacity of the local ecosystem is at about 100 
megamonkeys. 

Do you feel lucky, punk?

> We politely disagree with your scenarios.


From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com  Thu Mar 28 11:37:41 2013
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 04:37:41 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Obama keen on brain mapping
Message-ID: <1364470661.79806.YahooMailNeo@web160503.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>

?
Seems that Obama wants to put federal money into brain research something like a *Human Connectome Project*. I thought?this would be of interest to the AI, Cog Sci, cryonics, and upload guys:
?
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/18/science/project-seeks-to-build-map-of-human-brain.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
?
Obama Quote:
?
?Every dollar we invested to map the human genome returned $140 to our economy ? every dollar,? he said. ?Today our scientists are mapping the human brain to unlock the answers to Alzheimer?s. They?re developing drugs to regenerate damaged organs, devising new materials to make batteries 10 times more powerful. Now is not the time to gut these job-creating investments in science and innovation.? 
?
?
Stuart LaForge
?
"Ignorance is the curse of God; knowledge is the wing wherewith we fly to heaven." - William Shakespeare




From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Mar 28 12:12:15 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 13:12:15 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Obama keen on brain mapping
In-Reply-To: <1364470661.79806.YahooMailNeo@web160503.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
References: <1364470661.79806.YahooMailNeo@web160503.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <20130328121215.GW6172@leitl.org>

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 04:37:41AM -0700, The Avantguardian wrote:
> ?
> Seems that Obama wants to put federal money into brain research something like a *Human Connectome Project*. I thought?this would be of interest to the AI, Cog Sci, cryonics, and upload guys:
> ?
> http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/18/science/project-seeks-to-build-map-of-human-brain.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Everything is on hold due to budget sequester. Particularly NIH
is heavily affected.
 ?
> Obama Quote:
> ?
> ?Every dollar we invested to map the human genome returned $140 to our economy ? every dollar,? he said. ?Today our scientists are mapping the human brain to unlock the answers to Alzheimer?s. They?re developing drugs to regenerate damaged organs, devising new materials to make batteries 10 times more powerful. Now is not the time to gut these job-creating investments in science and innovation.? 
> ?
> ?
> Stuart LaForge
> ?
> "Ignorance is the curse of God; knowledge is the wing wherewith we fly to heaven." - William Shakespeare


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Mar 28 14:25:33 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 10:25:33 -0400
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <CADDVf2JLEiTma9VQEx6OQ6=fmsVUHGyUJkbNoYW6qJh=5jc9=w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CADDVf2JLEiTma9VQEx6OQ6=fmsVUHGyUJkbNoYW6qJh=5jc9=w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2GDKgkhzSSpmtS+aggbmXjufPn+cysMc2r1w=nm94LoA@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Mar 27, 2013  J.R. Jones <mrjones2020 at gmail.com> wrote:

>> Also the term "Methane Clathrate" is not used one time in the article
>> even though it contains twice as much energy as all the world's petroleum,
>> coal, natural gas, oil shale, and every other fossil fuel combined.
>
>
> > Fascinating stuff.  The warming of the oceans could have a huge effect
> on this fossil supply as well, no?
>

Could be. There is a theory that the warming of the ocean could cause
methane clathrate to release methane into the atmosphere causing more
warming because methane is a far more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon
dioxide; the worry, according to this theory, is that this will lead to a
runaway effect. However if Eugen is right about humanity facing a imminent
existential threat due to energy starvation then this little difficulty is
of trivial importance.

  John K Clark
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Thu Mar 28 13:19:19 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 09:19:19 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFj_HEeyu=a_Q8PSPu=EN-CinExT6V0Bcfj_qx67B+tAkQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 6:30 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>
> In absence of cheap, abundant energy the carrying
> capacity of the local ecosystem is at about 100
> megamonkeys.
>
> Do you feel lucky, punk?

### I have a feeling that this term should not be used here, even as a
cinematic reference.

This said, the discussion is so badly off track it isn't even funny.
"100 megamonkeys"? "Massive die-off"?

Reading The Oil Drum seems to warp reality testing.

Rafal


From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Mar 28 15:03:23 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 08:03:23 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Neonicotinoid pesticides 'damage brains of bees' reports
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armizXFWAueo_fDJSRS80UND6ry--0v43W-At77dx0xPnuQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armizXFWAueo_fDJSRS80UND6ry--0v43W-At77dx0xPnuQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <004c01ce2bc5$66f8b4d0$34ea1e70$@rainier66.com>

Thanks Billk.

>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: [ExI] Neonicotinoid pesticides 'damage brains of bees' reports

>From the BBC
Quote:
>...Scientists have found that two types of chemicals called neonicotinoids
and coumaphos are interfering with the insect's ability to learn and
remember...

>...http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21958547

>...BillK
_______________________________________________

Thanks BillK.  Are you the one who posted about a month ago from a beekeeper
friend?  He commented that he hadn't heard of any reports of major bee
shortages.  The question is, what forum would such reports be seen?  The
beekeepers I know of do not hang out on the internet.

Another thought occurred to me: if a fruit season produces way lower than
normal, this works to the benefit of the beekeeper.  The low production year
sends the price of fruit skyward, and reminds the groveman he needs plenty
of pollinators, so the price of hives goes skyward too.  The beekeeper is
able to rent her bees at a higher price the next season.  So it stands to
reason that if a beekeeper is losing a lot of hives, the strategy is to
quietly spend the spring splitting swarms and building up new colonies.  So
it isn't clear how we could hear about it if these neonics were causing
colony collapse.

Observations since I last posted on this topic: the local trees are
definitely way under-beed this season, waaay less bee-ey than normal.  I
estimate the delta at more than an order of magnitude less than that to
which we are fondly accustomed.  My backyard blossoms are nearly deserted.
I estimate the beeiety of the best metric to be down by somewhere between
one and one and a half orders of magnitude.  I do not know what is the right
forum to collect these observations, now that our online group has suffered
colony collapse from losing one critically important member.





From mbb386 at main.nc.us  Thu Mar 28 15:20:21 2013
From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 11:20:21 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFj_HEeyu=a_Q8PSPu=EN-CinExT6V0Bcfj_qx67B+tAkQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
 <CAAc1gFj_HEeyu=a_Q8PSPu=EN-CinExT6V0Bcfj_qx67B+tAkQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <85e0a24b3280bf74f02fb865593efbde.squirrel@www.main.nc.us>


>> Do you feel lucky, punk?
>
> ### I have a feeling that this term should not be used
> here, even as a cinematic reference.

Thank you, Rafal!  :)

Regards,
MB



From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Mar 28 15:40:06 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 16:40:06 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFj_HEeyu=a_Q8PSPu=EN-CinExT6V0Bcfj_qx67B+tAkQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
 <CAAc1gFj_HEeyu=a_Q8PSPu=EN-CinExT6V0Bcfj_qx67B+tAkQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20130328154005.GF6172@leitl.org>

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 09:19:19AM -0400, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
 
> This said, the discussion is so badly off track it isn't even funny.
> "100 megamonkeys"? "Massive die-off"?

Do you have fundamental problems with the last graph
on http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.it/2013/02/the-twilight-of-petroleum.html
?

If yes, which assumptions do you find questionable?

And http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG-update2013_long_18_03_2013.pdf
? 

Don't ask me how the net energy graph of coal looks 
like, I have no idea. I hope it decays slower. 
 
> Reading The Oil Drum seems to warp reality testing.

Do you see 1 TW/year world wide coming online for 
the next 40 years anywhere? 

According to Kurzwel, we'll be 100% solar in
16 years. Because, exponential.

http://bigthink.com/think-tank/ray-kurzweil-solar-will-power-the-world-in-16-years

That was 2011. Does
http://www.nature.com/news/7-tw-jpg-7.9461?article=1.12582
look exponential to you? 2013 won't be much
better, if at all. 

Look at the so-called poster child of renewable:
http://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Redaktion/PDF/E/energiestatistiken-energiegewinnung-energieverbrauch,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=de,rwb=true.pdf

Only 11.7% renewable, and 7.1% of that is biomass? 
Half of that not even native biomass? Really? Not to forget
that anything energy-intensive has been outsourced,
so even that is cheating.

Look, I'm no enjoying any of this in the slightest.
I need good news. Can you give me any?


From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Mar 28 15:30:49 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 08:30:49 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <005c01ce2bc9$3c02f250$b408d6f0$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl

>...In absence of cheap, abundant energy the carrying capacity of the local
ecosystem is at about 100 megamonkeys. 

_______________________________________________

Assuming that figure is correct for the sake of argument, there is another
perhaps bigger factor at play.  If we fail to find a more energy efficient
means of producing food, that 100Mm must be spread more evenly and thinly
than is optimal for the sorts of things many of us here enjoy.  In the US,
we have population concentration along the coasts, with the vast inland
areas producing most of the food.  Most of the fun stuff happens near the
coasts.  Most of the technological progress and innovation happens near the
coasts.  That's where I want to be.  

Humanity has spent most of its life in technological equilibrium, but we are
in a period of rapid revolutionary change.  Our whole lives and the lives of
every ancestor we knew lived in this transition, so it is difficult to
imagine falling into a new technological equilibrium.  I wouldn't like it a
damn bit.  It is too easy to imagine a future in which we failed to find the
right path, didn't get the right energy infrastructure developed and built
in time, ended up with a spreading and falling population along with
technological retrogression.  Oh dear evolution save us from that, sheesh.

My notion is that we must build the nukes, build the windmills, build the
rooftop PV installations, and get with it on my own favorites, the space
based solar and massive wind and solar powered coal to liquids and coal to
fertilizer operations, located in the American southwestern desert, Mexico,
the Sahara, the Gobi.

spike



From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Mar 28 15:50:15 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 15:50:15 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Neonicotinoid pesticides 'damage brains of bees' reports
In-Reply-To: <004c01ce2bc5$66f8b4d0$34ea1e70$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armizXFWAueo_fDJSRS80UND6ry--0v43W-At77dx0xPnuQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <004c01ce2bc5$66f8b4d0$34ea1e70$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgVKN1R4R3GWBB8FV4ipqq4UeF0zVxmcCSTmWsYYPLykw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 3:03 PM, spike  wrote:
> Thanks BillK.  Are you the one who posted about a month ago from a beekeeper
> friend?  He commented that he hadn't heard of any reports of major bee
> shortages.  The question is, what forum would such reports be seen?  The
> beekeepers I know of do not hang out on the internet.
>
>

Possibly, but it wasn't a bee friend. Just official reports.
The bee status varies from state to state.
See USDA Honey report for March 2013.
<www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/fvmhoney.pdf>

Apparently there is a known shortage of bees in California this year.


BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Mar 28 16:00:44 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 17:00:44 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <005c01ce2bc9$3c02f250$b408d6f0$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
 <005c01ce2bc9$3c02f250$b408d6f0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <20130328160044.GH6172@leitl.org>

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 08:30:49AM -0700, spike wrote:

> Assuming that figure is correct for the sake of argument, there is another
> perhaps bigger factor at play.  If we fail to find a more energy efficient
> means of producing food, that 100Mm must be spread more evenly and thinly

There are of course ways to do so, but they require technology.

0.1 gigamonkeys is roughly hunter-gatherer level. To get there,
you probably pass through the valley of shadow, aka entire plutonium
and lithium deuteride world wide made airborne. So these
0.1 gigamonkeys will be the rebounded population, after
the population bottleneck. After a great long while.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so8NQficzZg

> than is optimal for the sorts of things many of us here enjoy.  In the US,
> we have population concentration along the coasts, with the vast inland
> areas producing most of the food.  Most of the fun stuff happens near the
> coasts.  Most of the technological progress and innovation happens near the
> coasts.  That's where I want to be.  

I agree that coasts are great, especially in an energy-poor future.
 
> Humanity has spent most of its life in technological equilibrium, but we are
> in a period of rapid revolutionary change.  Our whole lives and the lives of
> every ancestor we knew lived in this transition, so it is difficult to
> imagine falling into a new technological equilibrium.  I wouldn't like it a
> damn bit.  It is too easy to imagine a future in which we failed to find the
> right path, didn't get the right energy infrastructure developed and built
> in time, ended up with a spreading and falling population along with
> technological retrogression.  Oh dear evolution save us from that, sheesh.

Indeed. That would be the worst case scanario, especially us here, 
who expected the best for humanity.
 
> My notion is that we must build the nukes, build the windmills, build the
> rooftop PV installations, and get with it on my own favorites, the space
> based solar and massive wind and solar powered coal to liquids and coal to
> fertilizer operations, located in the American southwestern desert, Mexico,
> the Sahara, the Gobi.

Coasts are natural locations for seawater desalination.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-01/california-desalination-financing-closes-on-1-billion-project.html

If graphene membranes can be made to work desalination will be even 
low-energy. Don't ask me about the pumps and the pipelines, though, that
looks expensive. Inland transport will be hence limited. Capture
from air only gives you very little, and makes it even harder for
folks downwind. 


From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Mar 28 16:10:55 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 09:10:55 -0700
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2GDKgkhzSSpmtS+aggbmXjufPn+cysMc2r1w=nm94LoA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CADDVf2JLEiTma9VQEx6OQ6=fmsVUHGyUJkbNoYW6qJh=5jc9=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2GDKgkhzSSpmtS+aggbmXjufPn+cysMc2r1w=nm94LoA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <007201ce2bce$d4e492d0$7eadb870$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark
.


>.Could be. There is a theory that the warming of the ocean could cause
methane clathrate to release methane into the atmosphere causing more
warming because methane is a far more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon
dioxide; the worry, according to this theory, is that this will lead to a
runaway effect.  John K Clark

 

 

John, that theory suggests harvesting and burning the clathrates.  The
argument is that is better to release the CO2 than all that CH4.

The reason I do not worry about spontaneous clathrate conversion is that the
thermal mass of the ocean is enormous.  Water has a lot of heat capacity for
its mass.  The calculations on that notion are pretty straightforward: it
would take centuries to warm the depths even 1 degree celcius under any
scenario I can imagine.  Have you any sample calcs to suggest otherwise?

spike

 

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From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Mar 28 16:24:23 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 17:24:23 +0100
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <007201ce2bce$d4e492d0$7eadb870$@rainier66.com>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CADDVf2JLEiTma9VQEx6OQ6=fmsVUHGyUJkbNoYW6qJh=5jc9=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2GDKgkhzSSpmtS+aggbmXjufPn+cysMc2r1w=nm94LoA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201ce2bce$d4e492d0$7eadb870$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <20130328162423.GL6172@leitl.org>

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 09:10:55AM -0700, spike wrote:

> The reason I do not worry about spontaneous clathrate conversion is that the

Most of clathrates are in the shelf. It's the pressure and the cold
that keeps the champaigne from uncorking itself.

http://updatednews.ca/2011/12/14/giant-plumes-of-methane-bubbling-to-surface-of-arctic-ocean/

If we play this game right we might even pull an 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anoxic_event

But they typically only last about half a megayear.

> thermal mass of the ocean is enormous.  Water has a lot of heat capacity for
> its mass.  The calculations on that notion are pretty straightforward: it
> would take centuries to warm the depths even 1 degree celcius under any
> scenario I can imagine.  Have you any sample calcs to suggest otherwise?


From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Thu Mar 28 14:26:26 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 06:26:26 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB4zUny7EWcAQ0fsSbs2gjFrbfoXFhmGF-Hg+Zu1ctiHYg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 4:00 AM,  Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>
> On Wed, Mar 27, 2013 at 09:44:56PM +0100, Mirco Romanato wrote:
>
>> > If solar doesn't succeed, we're dead. So perhaps I would try to
>> > make it succeed, if I were you.
>>
>> "We are dead" include you and who?
>
> In absence of cheap, abundant energy the carrying
> capacity of the local ecosystem is at about 100
> megamonkeys.

Carefully managed, the population shrink might strop closer to 1 B.
On the other hand, it might go even below your number.  Even the
farmers would not know how to cope with a low energy environment.

> Do you feel lucky, punk?

One in 7 or one in 70, lucky either way.

Fortunately, there seem to be other options.

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/alternative_energy/2013/03/solar_power_in_space_ray_guns_will_beam_it_back_to_earth.html#

Keith


From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Mar 28 17:13:27 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 10:13:27 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Neonicotinoid pesticides 'damage brains of bees' reports
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgVKN1R4R3GWBB8FV4ipqq4UeF0zVxmcCSTmWsYYPLykw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armizXFWAueo_fDJSRS80UND6ry--0v43W-At77dx0xPnuQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <004c01ce2bc5$66f8b4d0$34ea1e70$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgVKN1R4R3GWBB8FV4ipqq4UeF0zVxmcCSTmWsYYPLykw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00a401ce2bd7$9355f490$ba01ddb0$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
...
>...The bee status varies from state to state.
See USDA Honey report for March 2013.
<www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/fvmhoney.pdf>

>...Apparently there is a known shortage of bees in California this year.
BillK
_______________________________________________


Excellent, thanks.  This report agrees with my own observations and confirms
some of the unbelievable rumors I had heard: that both the spot price of
honey and the rental price of hives had gone completely crazy, in some
places 6 bucks a pound for honey in the jar and over 200 bucks each for hive
rentals.

All this reinforces what I had suggested earlier: stop buying honey, help
drive those prices back down to reality levels, let the bees eat their own
honey over the winter.  The beekeepers get to stop stressing the hives by
honey extractions, and it would be a great deal all around.  In the
beekeeping business, honey extraction is a filthy, exhausting, backbreaking,
dangerous task, and the bees don't like it either.  But at those crazy high
prices, 200 bucks per hive, the beekeeper can do the nice pleasant easy safe
job of just moving hives around.  He can show up at work in a three-piece
suit and a bee veil, all he has to do is drive a forklift, place pallets of
bees in 2x2x3s, collect 2400 bucks per pallet, come back a couple months
later when the blossoms are gone, rinse and repeat, no messing with all the
traditional problems of colony health maintenance, most of which is actually
caused by extracting honey.  (You knew that extracting honey stresses and
harms the colonies, ja?  Think about it next time you are tempted to buy a
jar, and don't make me come down there and put you on moderation for
honey-buying.)

Making a living on bees without extracting honey is capital intensive,
because it requires a forklift and a flatbed truck, but we are in times when
capital is relatively cheap.  Furthermore, if the whole scheme doesn't work
and the price of hive rental returns from the stratosphere, the beekeepers
can always make a good living smuggling dope from Mexico inside the hives.
Show me a border agent who would ask to check inside one.  Show me a dog
which would try to sniff a beehive.

If you guys are on other internet forums, do feel free to do the right
thing: suggest to your friends and colleagues to stop buying honey
forthwith.  I can imagine that you have a lot of credibility there, wherever
it is, so they would let you get away with posting that simple request even
if it is off topic.  You can explain your reasoning or send them to me, but
the simple summary is that if you stop buying honey, everyone wins: the bees
win immediately, the beekeepers win in the long run, since it drives up
colony rental prices and economically coaxes them into a much easier, safer,
cleaner, more pleasant job; the banker wins, by loaning money for capital on
forklifts and flatbed trucks with safe surety (the bee colonies); the grocer
wins, for she gets to sell more fruit rather than the lower profit
overpriced honey; the consumer wins, perhaps devouring more fruit which is
probably more healthy than honey; the dopers win, since they have a more
steady and consequently perhaps lower priced supply from migrant beekeepers
hauling dope from Mexico in beehives.  I can't even think of a loser in that
scenario, perhaps only the doctor who is kept away by the honey-eschewers
devouring an apple a day.  

This is a rare case of environmental activism in which everyone wins, so DO
IT please, do it enthusiastically, jump at every opportunity to not buy
honey, don't buy it early and often, encourage your friends to do likewise,
thanks.

spike 



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Mar 28 17:16:31 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 13:16:31 -0400
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <007201ce2bce$d4e492d0$7eadb870$@rainier66.com>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CADDVf2JLEiTma9VQEx6OQ6=fmsVUHGyUJkbNoYW6qJh=5jc9=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2GDKgkhzSSpmtS+aggbmXjufPn+cysMc2r1w=nm94LoA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201ce2bce$d4e492d0$7eadb870$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3AF0T99vqCj4WJZ1BkBN9hksF-6RJ2YJYYGFKKFpyRCg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 12:10 PM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

> The reason I do not worry about spontaneous clathrate conversion is that
> the thermal mass of the ocean is enormous.  Water has a lot of heat
> capacity for its mass.  The calculations on that notion are pretty
> straightforward: it would take centuries to warm the depths even 1 degree
> celcius under any scenario I can imagine.
>
True, and given that we'll all be dead soon after 2020 because of energy
starvation, at least according to some on this list, I don't loose a lot of
sleep worrying about runaway greenhouse effects.

> Have you any sample calcs to suggest otherwise?
>
No, I said it was a theory I didn't say it was a good theory.

  John K Clark
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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Thu Mar 28 17:35:07 2013
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 18:35:07 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB4zUny7EWcAQ0fsSbs2gjFrbfoXFhmGF-Hg+Zu1ctiHYg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB4zUny7EWcAQ0fsSbs2gjFrbfoXFhmGF-Hg+Zu1ctiHYg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFRF8jz=zhwOZxWZrQimVXaHBF6=eUVg1SpL702HZoRE8A@mail.gmail.com>

> Carefully managed, the population shrink might strop closer to 1 B. On
the other hand, it might go even below your number.  Even the farmers would
not know how to cope with a low energy environment.

Why?


On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 3:26 PM, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com>wrote:

> On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 4:00 AM,  Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> >
> > On Wed, Mar 27, 2013 at 09:44:56PM +0100, Mirco Romanato wrote:
> >
> >> > If solar doesn't succeed, we're dead. So perhaps I would try to
> >> > make it succeed, if I were you.
> >>
> >> "We are dead" include you and who?
> >
> > In absence of cheap, abundant energy the carrying
> > capacity of the local ecosystem is at about 100
> > megamonkeys.
>
> Carefully managed, the population shrink might strop closer to 1 B.
> On the other hand, it might go even below your number.  Even the
> farmers would not know how to cope with a low energy environment.
>
> > Do you feel lucky, punk?
>
> One in 7 or one in 70, lucky either way.
>
> Fortunately, there seem to be other options.
>
>
> http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/alternative_energy/2013/03/solar_power_in_space_ray_guns_will_beam_it_back_to_earth.html#
>
> Keith
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Mar 28 15:57:54 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 15:57:54 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Neonicotinoid pesticides 'damage brains of bees' reports
In-Reply-To: <004c01ce2bc5$66f8b4d0$34ea1e70$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armizXFWAueo_fDJSRS80UND6ry--0v43W-At77dx0xPnuQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <004c01ce2bc5$66f8b4d0$34ea1e70$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armiSE14wpOnRKo4LyJZT8jiv7-OpJRDOf3c=R4oB_XGaDQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 3:03 PM, spike wrote:
> Thanks BillK.  Are you the one who posted about a month ago from a beekeeper
> friend?  He commented that he hadn't heard of any reports of major bee
> shortages.  The question is, what forum would such reports be seen?  The
> beekeepers I know of do not hang out on the internet.
>
>

These two seem to be lively beekeeper discussion forums
<http://www.beesource.com/forums/forum.php>
<http://www.beekeepingforums.com/>


BillK


From painlord2k at libero.it  Thu Mar 28 18:07:47 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 19:07:47 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <515486F3.50100@libero.it>

Il 28/03/2013 11:30, Eugen Leitl ha scritto:
> On Wed, Mar 27, 2013 at 09:44:56PM +0100, Mirco Romanato wrote:
> 
>>> If solar doesn't succeed, we're dead. So perhaps I would try to
>>> make it succeed, if I were you.
>>
>> "We are dead" include you and who?
> 
> In absence of cheap, abundant energy the carrying
> capacity of the local ecosystem is at about 100 
> megamonkeys. 
> 
> Do you feel lucky, punk?

Given current Bitcoin trajectory? YES!!!
And gold too. But my feeling is uninteresting to others.


Most important,
are you telling me the carrying capacity of Earth today is just two
times the population of the Roman Empire at the time of Jesus?

So, is it just lower now than when Jesus were born?

With all our scientific and technological progress are you telling us we
can not, without oil and nuke, we can not produce much more than we
produced two thousands years ago?

Your rhetorics work for people not using their brain and not checking
the data.

Mirco


From kanzure at gmail.com  Thu Mar 28 19:18:09 2013
From: kanzure at gmail.com (Bryan Bishop)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 14:18:09 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Neonicotinoid pesticides 'damage brains of bees' reports
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armizXFWAueo_fDJSRS80UND6ry--0v43W-At77dx0xPnuQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armizXFWAueo_fDJSRS80UND6ry--0v43W-At77dx0xPnuQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CABaSBawcXy4wLQG5w-FrbaJPqZ1t6HB+vFDQuCfPieZ4J+eegA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 5:25 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> Scientists have found that two types of chemicals called
> neonicotinoids and coumaphos are interfering with the insect's ability
> to learn and remember.

Is this the source of the decline in the bee population? If so, it
seems like one viable way to begin fixing the bee population drop is
to start raising bees with small amounts of the poison in their
environment, then breed the ones that can survive increasingly larger
doses. You would have to start with doses that are less than the doses
they are currently experiencing (which apparently they can't survive
with). There's no guarantees in this method, but maybe within a
sufficiently large population of bees there might be enough variation
on whatever receptors to find something that can
increasingly-better-catch the neonicotinoid contaminants.

- Bryan
http://heybryan.org/
1 512 203 0507


From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Thu Mar 28 20:43:33 2013
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 21:43:33 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <515486F3.50100@libero.it>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org> <515486F3.50100@libero.it>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFQ-5fax-6BsYSbe3g9HYeG0KaJ3t8Hhf+OwQc8Guzy4Bw@mail.gmail.com>

http://confluence.org/

This site explains how empty of people is in fact this planet.
<http://www.confluence.org/index.php>


On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 7:07 PM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it>wrote:

> Il 28/03/2013 11:30, Eugen Leitl ha scritto:
> > On Wed, Mar 27, 2013 at 09:44:56PM +0100, Mirco Romanato wrote:
> >
> >>> If solar doesn't succeed, we're dead. So perhaps I would try to
> >>> make it succeed, if I were you.
> >>
> >> "We are dead" include you and who?
> >
> > In absence of cheap, abundant energy the carrying
> > capacity of the local ecosystem is at about 100
> > megamonkeys.
> >
> > Do you feel lucky, punk?
>
> Given current Bitcoin trajectory? YES!!!
> And gold too. But my feeling is uninteresting to others.
>
>
> Most important,
> are you telling me the carrying capacity of Earth today is just two
> times the population of the Roman Empire at the time of Jesus?
>
> So, is it just lower now than when Jesus were born?
>
> With all our scientific and technological progress are you telling us we
> can not, without oil and nuke, we can not produce much more than we
> produced two thousands years ago?
>
> Your rhetorics work for people not using their brain and not checking
> the data.
>
> Mirco
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar 29 02:03:26 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 19:03:26 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <20130328160044.GH6172@leitl.org>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
 <005c01ce2bc9$3c02f250$b408d6f0$@rainier66.com>
 <20130328160044.GH6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <000301ce2c21$9da1c290$d8e547b0$@rainier66.com>


>...] On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
>...
 
>>... My notion is that we must build the nukes, build the windmills, build 
> the rooftop PV installations, and get with it on my own favorites, the 
> space based solar and massive wind and solar powered coal to liquids 
> and coal to fertilizer operations, located in the American 
> southwestern desert, Mexico, the Sahara, the Gobi.

>...Coasts are natural locations for seawater desalination.

>...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-01/california-desalination-financi
ng-closes-on-1-billion-project.html

>...If graphene membranes can be made to work desalination will be even
low-energy. Don't ask me about the pumps and the pipelines, though, that
looks expensive. Inland transport will be hence limited. Capture from air
only gives you very little, and makes it even harder for folks downwind.
Eugen
_______________________________________________

Pipes definitely, pumps maybe not.  Follow please:

Reverse osmosis from seawater to drinkable fresh usually requires about 40
bars pressure differential, so if you have a pipe going down to a depth of
about 400 meters, there should be a constant supply of fresh water at the
bottom of the pipe, ja?  The pipe need not be vertical, it can  follow along
down resting on the sea bottom down off the continental shelf out into the
deep water, or drop down in an undersea deep spot such as that found in the
Monterey Canyon off the California coast, where the waters reach down to
about 3600 meters.

So imagine your pipe terminating at 400 meters, fresh water constantly
appearing down there as you pump it out to use it inland.  Imagine now you
drop the end of your pipe down another 100 meters.  You would expect the
fresh water to appear in arbitrary quantities at a depth of about 100 meters
inside the pipe, ja?  Nein, for fresh water is about 3 % less dense than sea
water, so the depth of the water in the pipe is now about 103 meters, or
about 397 meters from the surface.  If you keep dropping your osmotic
filter, the fresh water level in the pipe keeps rising, about three meters
for every 100 meters depth of the filter end.  So if the filter end is about
13 km below the surface, the fresh water is all the way back up to the sea
surface, available in arbitrary quantities to pump inland.  But oh dear, 13
km is a long ways down.

Now assume we find some kind of magic material which can separate fresh
water from sea water at the natural osmotic pressure of about 27 bars.  Now
fresh water appears at a depth of only about 270 meters, and the fresh water
meets the surface when the filter is about 9 km down, which is about twice
the average depth of the ocean, but not as deep as the deepest trenches in
the seas, some of which go down nearly 12 km.  If we had a sufficiently long
pipe to place an osmotic filter at the bottom of the Mariana Trench, the
fresh water in the pipe would rise above the sea surface about 100 meters.
>From that height, the water could flow inland by gravity, with no pumps
needed.

Of course if the claims regarding graphene membrane desalination are true,
then we need not go to all the theatrics of a pipe reaching the bottom of
the Mariana Trench.  A graphene membrane osmotic filter a mere 40 meters
below the surface would begin to supply fresh water, and a pipe a manageable
1300 meters below the surface would suffice to supply fresh water at sea
level.  Such a filter down to the bottom of the Monterey Canyon a mere 120
km off the California coast would result in an arbitrary supply of fresh
water at a pressure of 70 meters of water, or about 7 atmospheres, elegantly
sufficient to let water flow anywhere in the state or to the desert
southwest completely by gravity, using only lots of pipe.

That being said, I do firmly believe the suggestions of seawater osmosis to
fresh water at a pressure differential well below the natural NaCl osmotic
pressure are mistaken, wildly exaggerated or delusionally optimistic.  If on
the other hand I am mistaken or delusionally pessimistic, if osmosis can be
made to somehow operate at a fraction of the natural osmotic pressure of
seawater to fresh water apparently in violation of physical law as I
understand it, I am most eager to see us undertake the task of building this
astonishing pipeline system.  We know how to do pipes.

spike



From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Mar 29 02:52:48 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 19:52:48 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <000301ce2c21$9da1c290$d8e547b0$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
 <005c01ce2bc9$3c02f250$b408d6f0$@rainier66.com>
 <20130328160044.GH6172@leitl.org>
 <000301ce2c21$9da1c290$d8e547b0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNT-00ZwF8_-fz7zcReJJwTZRQMDjX_BpBSawkafM8SKEw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 7:03 PM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
> Of course if the claims regarding graphene membrane desalination are true,
> then we need not go to all the theatrics of a pipe reaching the bottom of
> the Mariana Trench.  A graphene membrane osmotic filter a mere 40 meters
> below the surface would begin to supply fresh water

That almost sounds testable.

How much, do you suppose, would it take to rig up that experiment?
A 40 meter pipe or perhaps a bit more, some graphene membrane to
cap it, boat rental...what else, and how much would it all cost?

And would anyone we know be able to execute a Kickstarter
campaign well enough to raise the funding for this experiment, with
the results to be published openly?


From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar 29 04:29:29 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 21:29:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNT-00ZwF8_-fz7zcReJJwTZRQMDjX_BpBSawkafM8SKEw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
 <005c01ce2bc9$3c02f250$b408d6f0$@rainier66.com>
 <20130328160044.GH6172@leitl.org>
 <000301ce2c21$9da1c290$d8e547b0$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNT-00ZwF8_-fz7zcReJJwTZRQMDjX_BpBSawkafM8SKEw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <000701ce2c36$03a31a80$0ae94f80$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Subject: Re: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 7:03 PM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
>>... Of course if the claims regarding graphene membrane desalination are 
> true, then we need not go to all the theatrics of a pipe reaching the 
> bottom of the Mariana Trench.  A graphene membrane osmotic filter a 
> mere 40 meters below the surface would begin to supply fresh water

>...That almost sounds testable.

>...How much, do you suppose, would it take to rig up that experiment?
A 40 meter pipe or perhaps a bit more, some graphene membrane to cap it,
boat rental...what else, and how much would it all cost?

>...And would anyone we know be able to execute a Kickstarter campaign well
enough to raise the funding for this experiment, with the results to be
published openly?
_______________________________________________

We wouldn't need a boat or any pipe.  An ordinary high pressure pump used in
any chemistry lab can easily manage 4 bars.  A bucket of seawater, a
graphene membrane, and we are in business, no kickstarter needed.  If we
decide we want to use pipes, ordinary schedule 40 PVC pipe would do, the
kind available at the local hardware store.  Put our graphene filter at the
bottom, run the pipe up along a building about 12 storeys high, fill the
pipe with the seawater, there you have your 4 bars.

The report that contained the original claim didn't give any details
regarding the graphene membrane however.  I can imagine those details may be
much harder to come by than producing a paltry 60 psi water column.

spike





From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Mar 29 04:55:09 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 21:55:09 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <000701ce2c36$03a31a80$0ae94f80$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
 <005c01ce2bc9$3c02f250$b408d6f0$@rainier66.com>
 <20130328160044.GH6172@leitl.org>
 <000301ce2c21$9da1c290$d8e547b0$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNT-00ZwF8_-fz7zcReJJwTZRQMDjX_BpBSawkafM8SKEw@mail.gmail.com>
 <000701ce2c36$03a31a80$0ae94f80$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQbK6zXkSTT7+UX0ACxQkFnjaHQpt9CbzkbrFk=UPbUZg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 9:29 PM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
> We wouldn't need a boat or any pipe.  An ordinary high pressure pump used in
> any chemistry lab can easily manage 4 bars.  A bucket of seawater, a
> graphene membrane, and we are in business, no kickstarter needed.  If we
> decide we want to use pipes, ordinary schedule 40 PVC pipe would do, the
> kind available at the local hardware store.  Put our graphene filter at the
> bottom, run the pipe up along a building about 12 storeys high, fill the
> pipe with the seawater, there you have your 4 bars.

Running the pipe up a building sounds more expensive (in terms of effort:
find someone w/a 12 story building willing to let you do science like this,
and haul in enough seawater) than just getting a boat and going out to
sea.  Also potentially less conclusive.

> The report that contained the original claim didn't give any details
> regarding the graphene membrane however.  I can imagine those details may be
> much harder to come by than producing a paltry 60 psi water column.

...yeah.  Do you have the original report, that the reporters can be
contacted and asked how they acquired or made that membrane?


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Mar 29 05:03:53 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 23:03:53 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <20130327075716.GY6172@leitl.org>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8Rwbm3Stp61ZHCEusCexgN41j4gE4xSc9yo6hQNCTxETWLg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327075716.GY6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwY7XPeytU_XbhLx8GJpzK5CaXs_py2UEUb4cy0cECNBdg@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Mar 27, 2013 at 1:57 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Tue, Mar 26, 2013 at 03:30:35PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
>> Bosch exiting the field is probably just a reflection of advancing
>> technologies in the USA and decreased labor costs in China. The
>
> Sorry, there are no advancing PV technologies in the USA.

http://www.firstsolar.com/
http://www.nanosolar.com/

The silicon wafer method of PV will be extinct when there is
widespread availability of continuous processes. If you can make solar
panels on something that looks like a printing press, and install it
with farm tractors, that just seems more scalable to me, even if the
efficiency isn't as high for the moment. PV on your roof is a green
dream that should probably die for the most part. (this spoken as
someone who has had PV on his own roof).

> Germany was a world leader in PV, until China took over.

You're thinking production capability, not technology. The only reason
that Germany was ahead was because of massive government interference
in the process. Now that the government has tired of subsidizing the
industry to the extent necessary to adrenalize it to unnatural
proportions, the market is taking over in a natural way.

> The reason for current overcapacity is that Germany and
> Italy now have flat demand, because Germany has killed
> incentives stone cold dead, and because Italy is broke.

Perfect, just as I suspected. As Maggie Thatcher said, "The problem
with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's
money." Truer words were never spoken, and the chickens have come home
to roost in Germany.

> The labor costs had little to do with it, it's an issue
> of availability of cheap dirty coal power and very few
> environmental regulations, as well as subsidies from
> the Chinese government. I expect temporary overcapacity
> will be over in 2-3 years, with considerable consolidation
> happening meanwhile.

Just as in the early automobile industry.

>> Germans should stick with doing what they do best, big complicated
>> things like roller coasters, wind nacelles and cars and the like.
>>
>> Globally, solar will do fine over the long term, even if some
>
> I agree that solar will be fine, but we won't. Oil plateaued by
> volume by ~2006, but net energy decline only started in earnest
> in 2012. Everybody who could shifted to coal, but if coal (along with
> everything else) peaks in 7 years, and the net energy decline
> follows the fossil liquids, then 2030 will quite differ from
> 2013. We have a lot less time than we thought.

I'm not arguing peak oil with you again. You can look up my position
in the archives. It hasn't changed. Peak demand predates peak supply
is the short story.

-Kelly


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Mar 29 05:07:07 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 23:07:07 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv0PMagJ4Szkm+qLJWm5ggKuf_Py=0Sy7a0fYeduAN+b_A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv0PMagJ4Szkm+qLJWm5ggKuf_Py=0Sy7a0fYeduAN+b_A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwaZ=LzHpzM-jLjopPgsYy8cSYyD=Hts5en9q5PPhn3eVQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Mar 27, 2013 at 12:38 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Wed, Mar 27, 2013 at 7:24 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>
>>  > there are no advancing PV technologies in the USA.
>
>
> True, Solyndra had very advanced technology but apparently it wasn't
> advanced enough because it went bankrupt in 2011.

Solyndra, if I understand correctly, was just manufacturing plain old
fashioned solar panels.

> In other words Germany has stopped lying to the free market and now
> everybody knows that in reality electricity from the sun is much more
> expensive than previously thought.

Yeah!!! Go John!

> OK, then there is no point in people in the USA worrying about it and
> whatever will be will be.
>
>> > If solar doesn't succeed, we're dead.
>
>
> If solar doesn't succeed, and recent developments make one think that maybe
> just maybe it isn't the next big thing after all, then it might be wise to
> have a plan B like nuclear energy and a plan C like methane clathrate ready
> to go. Your plan B and that of all environmentalists is freeze to death in
> the dark. It might be wise to at least talk about other ways to produce
> energy than solar just in case; I mean if we're dead anyway what is there to
> loose?

Frak baby frak!

-Kelly


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Mar 29 05:15:40 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 23:15:40 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <515486F3.50100@libero.it>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org> <515486F3.50100@libero.it>
Message-ID: <CAPy8Rwa6j_47hyS+GZvCL6NahMCxc2Lybuy50oYKjd4VE54Z9Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 12:07 PM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it>wrote:

> Given current Bitcoin trajectory? YES!!!
> And gold too. But my feeling is uninteresting to others.
>

Bitcoin trajectory seems to have a lot to do with governments printing
money like there is no tomorrow, then shutting down banks and threatening
to tax people on money that has already been taxed. But surely nobody is
interested in my feelings either.

-Kelly
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Mar 29 04:54:14 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2013 22:54:14 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CAL+RtPd1Nz22zLtzh3y1L3xOf8BciG+GhY8fEwT2jRGPmTTzVQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPd1Nz22zLtzh3y1L3xOf8BciG+GhY8fEwT2jRGPmTTzVQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZZ4_RcM1tFn1xYw=+k2XgbsNRLfN-Be2SfNrR_3GNayQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Mar 26, 2013 at 4:52 PM, Giovanni Santostasi
<gsantostasi at gmail.com> wrote:
> Would the oil industry be so successful without massive tax cuts and
> subsides from the government?

Yes. I believe it would. Perhaps not quite so profitable as it is, but
plenty profitable that you could buy gasoline in nearly as many places
as you can today. There are many examples of non-subsidized industries
that have succeeded just fine. Have you ever heard of a furniture
subsidy? Yet we nearly all have desks. How could that possibly happen?

-Kelly


From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar 29 14:39:24 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2013 07:39:24 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQbK6zXkSTT7+UX0ACxQkFnjaHQpt9CbzkbrFk=UPbUZg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
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Message-ID: <004001ce2c8b$381f8870$a85e9950$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
...
>>... about 12 storeys high, fill the pipe with the seawater, there you have
your 4 bars...

>...Running the pipe up a building sounds more expensive (in terms of
effort:
find someone w/a 12 story building willing to let you do science like this,
and haul in enough seawater) than just getting a boat and going out to sea.
Also potentially less conclusive...

Ja.  What I meant was I have a compressor in my garage that goes to 120 psi,
twice four bars.  We could put together a short piece of pipe and use
compressed air to give that little bit of pressure differential without tall
buildings, boats or pipe.

>>... The report that contained the original claim didn't give any details 
> regarding the graphene membrane however.  I can imagine those details 
> may be much harder to come by than producing a paltry 60 psi water column.

>...yeah.  Do you have the original report, that the reporters can be
contacted and asked how they acquired or made that membrane?
_______________________________________________

I haven't seen any details anywhere, or any suggestion for how graphene
could somehow overcome the 27 bar osmotic pressure of seawater to fresh.
The takeaway is that we need to beware of the claims being made for
graphene.  It is really cool stuff, but it can't do magic.

spike 



From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Mar 29 15:42:32 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2013 08:42:32 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <004001ce2c8b$381f8870$a85e9950$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
 <005c01ce2bc9$3c02f250$b408d6f0$@rainier66.com>
 <20130328160044.GH6172@leitl.org>
 <000301ce2c21$9da1c290$d8e547b0$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNT-00ZwF8_-fz7zcReJJwTZRQMDjX_BpBSawkafM8SKEw@mail.gmail.com>
 <000701ce2c36$03a31a80$0ae94f80$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNQbK6zXkSTT7+UX0ACxQkFnjaHQpt9CbzkbrFk=UPbUZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <004001ce2c8b$381f8870$a85e9950$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNT=PN04otMJ7WOfkprf1dzpziX11uxSn4RxVnk5rRqLSA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 29, 2013 at 7:39 AM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
> I haven't seen any details anywhere, or any suggestion for how graphene
> could somehow overcome the 27 bar osmotic pressure of seawater to fresh.

Have a couple reports, though these seem to grade in terms of
liters per (other things and) pressure.  This suggests they would
work regardless of pressure, just work better at higher pressures.

http://phys.org/news/2012-06-nanoporous-graphene-outperform-commercial-desalination.html
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/adfm.201202601/abstract

> The takeaway is that we need to beware of the claims being made for
> graphene.  It is really cool stuff, but it can't do magic.

Isn't this the case for any new material? :)


From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Mar 29 15:47:46 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2013 16:47:46 +0100
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFTExsAyLWrKMYuVGymg6053WRqr4g+b6QPGfZcJBz0xJw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20130325120321.GR6172@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv2Ugn2O2W9VstBiqFqXdzHPxSkCLycdoJ=qBrGf87BrBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CADDVf2JLEiTma9VQEx6OQ6=fmsVUHGyUJkbNoYW6qJh=5jc9=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFTExsAyLWrKMYuVGymg6053WRqr4g+b6QPGfZcJBz0xJw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20130329154746.GW6172@leitl.org>

On Thu, Mar 28, 2013 at 07:07:20AM +0100, Tomaz Kristan wrote:

> Deep down there is no warming. I very much doubt it is on the surface, but
> sure none deep down, where those deposits are waiting.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

...

Current outlook

Most deposits of methane clathrate are in sediments too deep to respond
rapidly, and modelling by Archer (2007) suggests the methane forcing should
remain a minor component of the overall greenhouse effect.[11] Clathrate
deposits destabilize from the deepest part of their stability zone, which is
typically hundreds of metres below the seabed. A sustained increase in sea
temperature will warm its way through the sediment eventually, and cause the
deepest, most marginal clathrate to start to break down; but it will
typically take of the order of a thousand years or more for the temperature
signal to get through.[11] One kind of exception is recent changes to the
Gulf Stream causing widespread gas hydrate destabilization:[12] "It is
unlikely that the western North Atlantic margin is the only area experiencing
changing ocean currents; our estimate of 2.5 gigatonnes of destabilizing
methane hydrate may therefore represent only a fraction of the methane
hydrate currently destabilizing globally."

Main article: Arctic methane release

Another kind of exception is in clathrates associated with the Arctic ocean,
where clathrates can exist in shallower water stabilized by lower
temperatures rather than higher pressures; these may potentially be
marginally stable much closer to the surface of the sea-bed, stabilized by a
frozen 'lid' of permafrost preventing methane escape. Research carried out in
2008 in the Siberian Arctic has shown millions of tons of methane being
released, apparently through perforations in the seabed permafrost,[13] with
concentrations in some regions reaching up to 100 times normal.[14][15] The
excess methane has been detected in localized hotspots in the outfall of the
Lena River and the border between the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea.
Some melting may be the result of geological heating, but more thawing is
believed to be due to the greatly increased volumes of meltwater being
discharged from the Siberian rivers flowing north.[16] Current methane
release has previously been estimated at 0.5 Mt per year.[17] Shakhova et al.
(2008) estimate that not less than 1,400 Gt of carbon is presently locked up
as methane and methane hydrates under the Arctic submarine permafrost, and
5?10% of that area is subject to puncturing by open taliks. They conclude
that "release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage [is]
highly possible for abrupt release at any time". That would increase the
methane content of the planet's atmosphere by a factor of twelve,[18][19]
equivalent in greenhouse effect to a doubling in the current level of CO2.
In 2008 the United States Department of Energy National Laboratory system[20]
and the United States Geological Survey's Climate Change Science Program both
identified potential clathrate destabilization in the Arctic as one of four
most serious scenarios for abrupt climate change, which have been singled out
for priority research. The USCCSP released a report in late December 2008
estimating the gravity of this risk.[21] According to data released by the
EPA[22] atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations (ppb) remained between
400?800ppb (between years 600,000 BC to 1900) and since 1900 have risen to
levels between 1600?1800ppb.


From painlord2k at libero.it  Fri Mar 29 16:11:42 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2013 17:11:42 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwaZ=LzHpzM-jLjopPgsYy8cSYyD=Hts5en9q5PPhn3eVQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv0PMagJ4Szkm+qLJWm5ggKuf_Py=0Sy7a0fYeduAN+b_A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwaZ=LzHpzM-jLjopPgsYy8cSYyD=Hts5en9q5PPhn3eVQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5155BD3E.2020205@libero.it>

Il 29/03/2013 06:07, Kelly Anderson ha scritto:

> Frak baby frak!

I suppose this is not a sexual joke like with fork and dongles.
:-)

Mirco



From nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk  Fri Mar 29 16:41:18 2013
From: nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk (Tom Nowell)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2013 16:41:18 +0000 (GMT)
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <mailman.36.1364533906.425.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <1364575278.72939.YahooMailClassic@web171906.mail.ir2.yahoo.com>

Looking at carrying capacity - apparently after the Black Death in the 14th century (which followed a few decades after a huge famine) the global population was estimated at 370 million, so we know the earth can carry that much even when Nature does its best to kill us.

According to the UN's figures at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbilpart1.pdf
world population reached 1 billion in 1804, which is 6 years after Malthus predicted a grim future ahead. So, even with 1800-era technology 1 billion seemed manageable.

On the one hand, we do have genetic engineering and a big variety of seedstocks available, and even if only a small amount of petroleum is available we could still make a small amount of pesticides, so we could keep more people fed with limited resources.

On the other hand, distribution is always a problem. If we can't get the food from where it's grown to where the hungry people are without the fuel for it, or can't get the supplies needed to the farmers because we don't have the fuel, then the system is screwed. Look at the Ethiopian highlands or poverty in Afghanistan - there may be enough food available across the entire country, but transporting it to the poorest and making sure everyone can avoid malnutrition is a severe challenge to us in 2013.

Spike makes a good point about concentrations of population on the coast - back in the Roman Empire, there were huge megacities like Rome and Byzantium fed by shipping in food from grain-rich areas, and huge trade networks. During the last years of Empire as it was collapsing, people fled the cities for rural areas for many reasons, but food security was a big one. The medieval solution of a largely rural society with peasants owing taxes and military service to a noble class of trained warriors, and with centres of civilisation being small,fortified towns with nearby castles, makes perfect sense as a response to the collapse of the Roman world and the threat of invasion.

 If our society proves unable to sustain itself, will we rebuild like this? Or will be like some of the early North American civilisations who built large settlements and then abandoned them for a different way of life when their climate changed?

Tom



From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Mar 29 18:33:16 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2013 11:33:16 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNT=PN04otMJ7WOfkprf1dzpziX11uxSn4RxVnk5rRqLSA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
 <005c01ce2bc9$3c02f250$b408d6f0$@rainier66.com>
 <20130328160044.GH6172@leitl.org>
 <000301ce2c21$9da1c290$d8e547b0$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNT-00ZwF8_-fz7zcReJJwTZRQMDjX_BpBSawkafM8SKEw@mail.gmail.com>
 <000701ce2c36$03a31a80$0ae94f80$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNQbK6zXkSTT7+UX0ACxQkFnjaHQpt9CbzkbrFk=UPbUZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <004001ce2c8b$381f8870$a85e9950$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNT=PN04otMJ7WOfkprf1dzpziX11uxSn4RxVnk5rRqLSA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <006101ce2cab$e566c370$b0344a50$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes

>...Have a couple reports, though these seem to grade in terms of liters per
(other things and) pressure.  This suggests they would work regardless of
pressure, just work better at higher pressures...

Thanks, I will look it over.  While I do that, I will review how to do
entropy calculations on sodium chloride going into solution in water.
Clearly if a passive membrane could separate salt from water without a huge
pressure differential, you would violate the law of increasing entropy.
Imagine a barrel of water bisected by a horizontal magic graphene membrane.
Pour seawater in the top half, come back some time later, find fresh water
at the bottom half of the barrel and saltier seawater in the top half.   You
would agree the half and half barrel is lower entropy than you started with,
ja?

>...http://phys.org/news/2012-06-nanoporous-graphene-outperform-commercial-d
esalination.html
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/adfm.201202601/abstract

>>... The takeaway is that we need to beware of the claims being made for 
> graphene.  It is really cool stuff, but it can't do magic.

>...Isn't this the case for any new material? :) _______________________

Ja, still true for any new material.  The second law of thermodynamics is
not just a suggestion...  {8^]

spike



From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Mar 29 18:41:54 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2013 11:41:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <006101ce2cab$e566c370$b0344a50$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130325144626.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZ4667yKezABNcwVwmgJvxc0HO_dmaTWLOqrSB_6PeXRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130327112404.GC6172@leitl.org> <51535A48.70502@libero.it>
 <20130328103045.GU6172@leitl.org>
 <005c01ce2bc9$3c02f250$b408d6f0$@rainier66.com>
 <20130328160044.GH6172@leitl.org>
 <000301ce2c21$9da1c290$d8e547b0$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNT-00ZwF8_-fz7zcReJJwTZRQMDjX_BpBSawkafM8SKEw@mail.gmail.com>
 <000701ce2c36$03a31a80$0ae94f80$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNQbK6zXkSTT7+UX0ACxQkFnjaHQpt9CbzkbrFk=UPbUZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <004001ce2c8b$381f8870$a85e9950$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNT=PN04otMJ7WOfkprf1dzpziX11uxSn4RxVnk5rRqLSA@mail.gmail.com>
 <006101ce2cab$e566c370$b0344a50$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSExrjse-XyQ=5sOsBQnEDH67WzX=+Qkg3CrDFwKiHpvQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 29, 2013 at 11:33 AM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
> Thanks, I will look it over.

Google on "graphene membrane water" if you want to find more.
Most of them are, of course, unfortunately concealed behind
paywalls or not very technical.

> You
> would agree the half and half barrel is lower entropy than you started with,
> ja?

This is true.  A pressure differential would indeed be a viable
source for the required energy, but in theory the absolute
physical limit is "any" differential, not necessarily a large one,
just so long as some energy can be harvested.  (Of course,
with really small differentials, one would get really small water
purification rates.)

The advance here, if indeed there is one, would be in boosting
the efficiency and thus lowering the minimum differential.


From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Mar 29 18:55:17 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2013 19:55:17 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNSExrjse-XyQ=5sOsBQnEDH67WzX=+Qkg3CrDFwKiHpvQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <005c01ce2bc9$3c02f250$b408d6f0$@rainier66.com>
 <20130328160044.GH6172@leitl.org>
 <000301ce2c21$9da1c290$d8e547b0$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNT-00ZwF8_-fz7zcReJJwTZRQMDjX_BpBSawkafM8SKEw@mail.gmail.com>
 <000701ce2c36$03a31a80$0ae94f80$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNQbK6zXkSTT7+UX0ACxQkFnjaHQpt9CbzkbrFk=UPbUZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <004001ce2c8b$381f8870$a85e9950$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNT=PN04otMJ7WOfkprf1dzpziX11uxSn4RxVnk5rRqLSA@mail.gmail.com>
 <006101ce2cab$e566c370$b0344a50$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNSExrjse-XyQ=5sOsBQnEDH67WzX=+Qkg3CrDFwKiHpvQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20130329185517.GA6172@leitl.org>

On Fri, Mar 29, 2013 at 11:41:54AM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:

> The advance here, if indeed there is one, would be in boosting
> the efficiency and thus lowering the minimum differential.

Your main problem is that the graphene layer (with fabricated
defects) is monatomic, and hence will need suitable support
which must not occlude too much.

Plus, the issue is price, etc. It will take a long time
until this becomes a product, if ever. 

If all you want to do is to grow food in a hot, arid place, 
then seawater greenhouses are not bad at all.


From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Mar 29 19:31:26 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2013 20:31:26 +0100
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <1364575278.72939.YahooMailClassic@web171906.mail.ir2.yahoo.com>
References: <mailman.36.1364533906.425.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <1364575278.72939.YahooMailClassic@web171906.mail.ir2.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <20130329193125.GB6172@leitl.org>

On Fri, Mar 29, 2013 at 04:41:18PM +0000, Tom Nowell wrote:

> Looking at carrying capacity - apparently after the Black Death in the 14th century (which followed a few decades after a huge famine) the global population was estimated at 370 million, so we know the earth can carry that much even when Nature does its best to kill us.

100 Mpeople seems to be a sustainable population at hunter-gatherer level of technology
(which is the likely level after a delayed population rebound after a total nuclear 
exchange, especially if records are unreadable due too much magic).

The exact figure doesn't matter that much.
 
> According to the UN's figures at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbilpart1.pdf
> world population reached 1 billion in 1804, which is 6 years after Malthus predicted a grim future ahead. So, even with 1800-era technology 1 billion seemed manageable.

Malthus failed because he didn't anticipate shift from biofuels to fossil,
and Liebig (artificial fertilizer). 1800-level of technology wasn't
sustainable already. It's just that their burn rate was slow enough.
 
> On the one hand, we do have genetic engineering and a big variety of seedstocks available, and even if only a small amount of petroleum is available we could still make a small amount of pesticides, so we could keep more people fed with limited resources.

Genetic engineering is a high-technology item. It also can't do a damn
thing about thermodynamics.
 
> On the other hand, distribution is always a problem. If we can't get the food from where it's grown to where the hungry people are without the fuel for it, or can't get the supplies needed to the farmers because we don't have the fuel, then the system is screwed. Look at the Ethiopian highlands or poverty in Afghanistan - there may be enough food available across the entire country, but transporting it to the poorest and making sure everyone can avoid malnutrition is a severe challenge to us in 2013.

It's not just a physical layer problem, it's a supernode control
problem. People in power will intercept and resell, so your deliveries
will never reach the recipients. Even if they did, warlords could
confiscate them.
 
> Spike makes a good point about concentrations of population on the coast - back in the Roman Empire, there were huge megacities like Rome and Byzantium fed by shipping in food from grain-rich areas, and huge trade networks. During the last years of Empire as it was collapsing, people fled the cities for rural areas for many reasons, but food security was a big one. The medieval solution of a largely rural society with peasants owing taxes and military service to a noble class of trained warriors, and with centres of civilisation being small,fortified towns with nearby castles, makes perfect sense as a response to the collapse of the Roman world and the threat of invasion.
> 
>  If our society proves unable to sustain itself, will we rebuild like this? Or will be like some of the early North American civilisations who built large settlements and then abandoned them for a different way of life when their climate changed?

It's fun to think about how things turn out if we screw up,
but let's rather think about how not to screw up.


From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Mar 29 19:46:51 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2013 19:46:51 +0000
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <20130329193125.GB6172@leitl.org>
References: <mailman.36.1364533906.425.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <1364575278.72939.YahooMailClassic@web171906.mail.ir2.yahoo.com>
 <20130329193125.GB6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgJ72_7DAft_mUb+Qq29g=bU1QAo-tYhthtROVucVZ=OA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 29, 2013 at 7:31 PM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> It's not just a physical layer problem, it's a supernode control
> problem. People in power will intercept and resell, so your deliveries
> will never reach the recipients. Even if they did, warlords could
> confiscate them.
>

Hey, that comment is a bit radical!

Future scenarios usually assume that everybody has 150+ IQs and are
super altruistic.
You're not following the script.   :)

BillK


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Fri Mar 29 21:33:25 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2013 22:33:25 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgJ72_7DAft_mUb+Qq29g=bU1QAo-tYhthtROVucVZ=OA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.36.1364533906.425.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <1364575278.72939.YahooMailClassic@web171906.mail.ir2.yahoo.com>
 <20130329193125.GB6172@leitl.org>
 <CAL_armgJ72_7DAft_mUb+Qq29g=bU1QAo-tYhthtROVucVZ=OA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1303292229350.3153@tau.ceti.pl>

On Fri, 29 Mar 2013, BillK wrote:

> On Fri, Mar 29, 2013 at 7:31 PM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> > It's not just a physical layer problem, it's a supernode control
> > problem. People in power will intercept and resell, so your deliveries
> > will never reach the recipients. Even if they did, warlords could
> > confiscate them.
> >
> 
> Hey, that comment is a bit radical!
> 
> Future scenarios usually assume that everybody has 150+ IQs and are
> super altruistic.
> You're not following the script.   :)
> 
> BillK

Actually, at least one scenario predicts Tina Turner will be a queen, and 
her subject will title her "big momma" or something. And Mel Gibson will 
try to steal his precious car confiscated by her because it was so neat. 
The same scenario suggests children will happily turn into dilligent 
pupils as soon as they have a chance to sit in a school.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Mar 29 21:56:17 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2013 14:56:17 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <20130329185517.GA6172@leitl.org>
References: <005c01ce2bc9$3c02f250$b408d6f0$@rainier66.com>
 <20130328160044.GH6172@leitl.org>
 <000301ce2c21$9da1c290$d8e547b0$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNT-00ZwF8_-fz7zcReJJwTZRQMDjX_BpBSawkafM8SKEw@mail.gmail.com>
 <000701ce2c36$03a31a80$0ae94f80$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNQbK6zXkSTT7+UX0ACxQkFnjaHQpt9CbzkbrFk=UPbUZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <004001ce2c8b$381f8870$a85e9950$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNT=PN04otMJ7WOfkprf1dzpziX11uxSn4RxVnk5rRqLSA@mail.gmail.com>
 <006101ce2cab$e566c370$b0344a50$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNSExrjse-XyQ=5sOsBQnEDH67WzX=+Qkg3CrDFwKiHpvQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130329185517.GA6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRWXbYxMQ0uYNJk4wFRkOa2PF3puawL6J2yWwDrKV3s-w@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 29, 2013 at 11:55 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> If all you want to do is to grow food in a hot, arid place,
> then seawater greenhouses are not bad at all.

The water's used for much more than farming.  It's also
used to sustain cities.

That said - even if the water cost much more than it now
does, would seawater greenhouses be cost-competitive
once you add in all the costs and factor in the low
yields?  Assuming one can grow the same plants: the
market for lettuce is not the market for kelp, unless one
can make a *very* close kelp-based lettuce analog.


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sat Mar 30 00:35:40 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2013 20:35:40 -0400
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <20130329193125.GB6172@leitl.org>
References: <mailman.36.1364533906.425.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <1364575278.72939.YahooMailClassic@web171906.mail.ir2.yahoo.com>
 <20130329193125.GB6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2sC+S1G0G_3ziWHaj3Y5v26xrjdww8KLCcDCG=K6cJbQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 29, 2013  Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> Malthus failed because he didn't anticipate shift from biofuels to
> fossil, and Liebig (artificial fertilizer).
>

Predictions would be easy if you knew what to anticipate. Are you certain
you're smarter than Malthus and know what to anticipate, more specifically
would you bet your life that you know the one and only solution to our
energy problem?

> Genetic engineering is a high-technology item.
>

Yes.

 > It also can't do a damn thing about thermodynamics.
>

What the hell? Life has made good use of thermodynamics over the last 3.5
billion years and I don't know why we'd want to do something about it now.

  John K Clark
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sat Mar 30 04:01:19 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kellycoinguy)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2013 22:01:19 -0600
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
Message-ID: <h4c998mxh2a3g1lvh9py1wic.1364616079543@email.android.com>

I think Eugen has not accounted for the transformative nature of cold fusion that will be unleashed by the inevitable collapse of the political power of big oil once peak oil has passed and the politicians no longer need to subdue the technology to help their greasy friends.

I got this of a Web site that I trust at least as much as the oil drum, so it must be true!

-Kelly



Sent from my Samsung Epic? 4G TouchJohn Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:On Fri, Mar 29, 2013? Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> Malthus failed because he didn't anticipate shift from biofuels to fossil, and Liebig (artificial fertilizer). 

Predictions would be easy if you knew what to anticipate. Are you certain you're smarter than Malthus and know what to anticipate, more specifically would you bet your life that you know the one and only solution to our energy problem?

> Genetic engineering is a high-technology item.

Yes. 

?> It also can't do a damn thing about thermodynamics.

What the hell? Life has made good use of thermodynamics over the last 3.5 billion years and I don't know why we'd want to do something about it now.

? John K Clark


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From eugen at leitl.org  Sat Mar 30 09:07:48 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sat, 30 Mar 2013 10:07:48 +0100
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <h4c998mxh2a3g1lvh9py1wic.1364616079543@email.android.com>
References: <h4c998mxh2a3g1lvh9py1wic.1364616079543@email.android.com>
Message-ID: <20130330090748.GT6172@leitl.org>

On Fri, Mar 29, 2013 at 10:01:19PM -0600, Kellycoinguy wrote:
> I think Eugen has not accounted for the transformative nature of cold fusion that will be unleashed by the inevitable collapse of the political power of big oil once peak oil has passed and the politicians no longer need to subdue the technology to help their greasy friends.
> 
> I got this of a Web site that I trust at least as much as the oil drum, so it must be true!

Unfortunately, LENR-CANR is yet another fool's gold. 
All the technologies that will come to play in the coming
30-40 years already exist (many have existed for decades
up to two centuries), and most of them as commercial
products.

The bulk of the transition volume will be done by
economies of scale. Disruptive technologies are possible,
especially towards the end of the transition.

However, now is the time to start spending 1-5 TUSD/year
world-wide. This is a lot of money? Of course. The longer
you wait, the more expensive it will get. 


From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Mar 30 09:20:19 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 30 Mar 2013 09:20:19 +0000
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <20130330090748.GT6172@leitl.org>
References: <h4c998mxh2a3g1lvh9py1wic.1364616079543@email.android.com>
 <20130330090748.GT6172@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgPTkiTdkZDr_8W2jX-xaaKHzsVsDZd9Vm5iwaNgcWC4Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Mar 30, 2013 at 9:07 AM, Eugen Leitl  wrote:
> However, now is the time to start spending 1-5 TUSD/year
> world-wide. This is a lot of money? Of course. The longer
> you wait, the more expensive it will get.
>


Very true, but to no effect.
Look at the ongoing financial collapse. The politicians have said that
everyone knows what needs to be done, but the problem they have is how
to get re-elected afterwards. It is a failure of democracy.
So everything possible is done to carry on as near normal as long as
they can, while the future bill mounts up. When they finally have no
alternative, the cost to pay will be greater than the world GDP.

(That implies a bit of discomfort for everyone).


BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Sat Mar 30 09:34:33 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sat, 30 Mar 2013 10:34:33 +0100
Subject: [ExI] peak fossil by 2020
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgPTkiTdkZDr_8W2jX-xaaKHzsVsDZd9Vm5iwaNgcWC4Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <h4c998mxh2a3g1lvh9py1wic.1364616079543@email.android.com>
 <20130330090748.GT6172@leitl.org>
 <CAL_armgPTkiTdkZDr_8W2jX-xaaKHzsVsDZd9Vm5iwaNgcWC4Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20130330093433.GY6172@leitl.org>

On Sat, Mar 30, 2013 at 09:20:19AM +0000, BillK wrote:

> Very true, but to no effect.
> Look at the ongoing financial collapse. The politicians have said that
> everyone knows what needs to be done, but the problem they have is how
> to get re-elected afterwards. It is a failure of democracy.

It's true. So start spending money at individual, group and
municipal level. If you fail to do that, it will be not a
failure of democracy, but the failure of individuals.


> So everything possible is done to carry on as near normal as long as
> they can, while the future bill mounts up. When they finally have no
> alternative, the cost to pay will be greater than the world GDP.

If you look at the high figure (5 TUSD) it's already well
beyond normal spending. It's not longer a question of whether
it's gonna hurt but how badly. The weakest will hurting
the most.
 
> (That implies a bit of discomfort for everyone).

Don't look right now, but that giant sucking sound you've
been hearing for a while... yeah, it's what you think.


From painlord2k at libero.it  Sat Mar 30 10:28:33 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Sat, 30 Mar 2013 11:28:33 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB43RL-Uej8mYroJQs4kDw9J1G0Nq8iCiLo+RKDhGQXVHQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5156BE51.60102@libero.it>

Il 23/03/2013 18:29, Keith Henson ha scritto:
> "German engineering company Bosch said Friday that it is abandoning
> its solar energy business, because there is no way to make it
> economically viable.'We have considered the latest technological
> advances, cost-reduction potential and strategic alignment, and there
> have also been talks with potential partners,' Bosch CEO Volkmar
> Denner said. 'However, none of these possibilities resulted in a
> solution for the solar energy division that would be economically
> viable over the long term.'"
> 
> http://phys.org/news/2013-03-bosch-abandon-solar-energy-business.html

Everythings, as usual, was explained by Milton Friedman a lot of yoers ago:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTVNaQWTaqM

Government and government fan boys always repeat the same policies with
the same effects.
I do not want call them "mistakes" because I think they are not for a
lot of them.
They are self interested decisions done with politicians self interest
in mind. People be screwed.

Mirco



From fortean1 at mindspring.com  Sat Mar 30 06:58:50 2013
From: fortean1 at mindspring.com (Terry W. Colvin)
Date: Sat, 30 Mar 2013 13:58:50 +0700 (GMT+07:00)
Subject: [ExI] FWD - "In Our Time" on Water // BCC science programs listing
	//
Message-ID: <11483062.1364626730458.JavaMail.root@elwamui-little.atl.sa.earthlink.net>

[fantasticreality] FWD - "In Our Time" on Water
Date: Mar 29, 2013 10:51 AM

Don't know if you can all get this player outside of UK - I've 
listened to quite a few of the "In Our Time" progs - some of the 
science ones especially were surprisingly good
Ray

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01rgm9g

Water
Duration: 43 minutes
First broadcast: Thursday 28 March 2013
Melvyn Bragg and his guests discuss one of the simplest and most 
remarkable of all molecules: water. Water is among the most 
abundant substances on Earth, covering more than two-thirds of 
the planet. Consisting of just three atoms, the water molecule is 
superficially simple in its structure but extraordinary in its 
properties. It is a rare example of a substance that can be found 
on Earth in gaseous, liquid and solid forms, and thanks to its 
unique chemical behaviour is the basis of all known life. 
Scientists are still discovering new things about it, such as the 
fact that there are at least fifteen different forms of ice.

Hasok Chang
Hans Rausing Professor of History and Philosophy of Science at 
the University of Cambridge
Andrea Sella
Professor of Chemistry at University College London
Patricia Hunt
Senior Lecturer in Chemistry at Imperial College London.

Here's some of the back catalogue of science progs
http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/iots

and the full list (I think)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/iots/all


Terry W. Colvin
Ladphrao (Bangkok), Thailand
Pran Buri (Hua Hin), Thailand
http://terrycolvin.freewebsites.com/
[Terry's Fortean & "Work" itty-bitty site]


From sparge at gmail.com  Sat Mar 30 17:52:42 2013
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Sat, 30 Mar 2013 13:52:42 -0400
Subject: [ExI] underwater sprinkler,
	was: RE: Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
References: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2d97z0JNiF00FDf2+kZn5XyNy00-OSFnTjq=DLCDTdf9w@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 9:26 AM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

> An example of the kinds of stuff we used to do is from a Feynman question.
>  You have seen those S-shaped lawn sprinklers, turn on the water, they
> spin.  What would happen if you took one of those, submerged it in water,
> connected the hose to a pump and pulled water thru it backwards?  Would it
> turn the opposite direction, since the tips of the arms would act as
> nozzles in reverse?  Or would it turn the same direction as before, since
> the water is creating centrifugal force as it goes around the bend?  Or
> would the forces exactly cancel and not turn?  Or a fourth possibility that
> blows your mind?
>
> I know the answer from experiment.  Can you figure it out from math and
> thought experiment?
>

So what's the answer?

-Dave
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Mar 30 20:59:37 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sat, 30 Mar 2013 13:59:37 -0700
Subject: [ExI] underwater sprinkler,
	was: RE: Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2d97z0JNiF00FDf2+kZn5XyNy00-OSFnTjq=DLCDTdf9w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
 <CAM5aL2d97z0JNiF00FDf2+kZn5XyNy00-OSFnTjq=DLCDTdf9w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <007f01ce2d89$7de5e170$79b1a450$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Dave Sill
Sent: Saturday, March 30, 2013 10:53 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] underwater sprinkler, was: RE: Musical instruments in
space

 

On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 9:26 AM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

An example of the kinds of stuff we used to do is from a Feynman question.
You have seen those S-shaped lawn sprinklers, turn on the water, they spin.
What would happen if you took one of those, submerged it in water, connected
the hose to a pump and pulled water thru it backwards?  Would it turn the
opposite direction, since the tips of the arms would act as nozzles in
reverse?  Or would it turn the same direction as before, since the water is
creating centrifugal force as it goes around the bend?  Or would the forces
exactly cancel and not turn?  Or a fourth possibility that blows your mind?

I know the answer from experiment.  Can you figure it out from math and
thought experiment?


So what's the answer?

 

-Dave

 

 

Dave, this one still blows my mind.  As I think John Clark pointed out,
conservation of momentum requires that there is no net rotation.  Otherwise
you would be creating angular momentum out of nothing.  However, the concept
is often misunderstood, and John missed something important.

 

You have perhaps heard that if you hold a cat by her feet and release, the
cat will land on her feet.  This seems to violate the concept of
conservation of angular momentum, but it doesn't.  Cats are clever in that
way, but not magic.  They borrow some angular momentum, get feet downward,
then pay back.  You can google on how cats do this, or check out the video
and move to about 1:15 in this excellent presentation:

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/24/why-cats-always-land-on-their-feet-
_n_1828748.html

 

Regarding the underwater sprinkler, during the time in which the flow rate
is increasing, there is a counter-rotation.  During the time in which the
flow rate is decreasing, the borrowed angular momentum must be paid back,
exactly with no interest.  So during that phase, there is a rotation in the
same direction as the above-water sprinkler.

 

Some of you mathematical hotties, do explain that observation please, using
differential equations, or whatever is your favorite mathematical
technology, including even a digital model or a Matlab sim.  If you manage
it, the grand prize will be yours: my sincere everlasting admiration.

 

spike

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From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Mar 31 03:43:15 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 30 Mar 2013 20:43:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] underwater sprinkler,
	was: RE: Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <007f01ce2d89$7de5e170$79b1a450$@rainier66.com>
References: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
 <CAM5aL2d97z0JNiF00FDf2+kZn5XyNy00-OSFnTjq=DLCDTdf9w@mail.gmail.com>
 <007f01ce2d89$7de5e170$79b1a450$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRa3kPY7k2g7Hyv5QFvki052eODp6nqPoV0TMXifrH2Vg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Mar 30, 2013 at 1:59 PM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

> Regarding the underwater sprinkler, during the time in which the flow rate
> is increasing, there is a counter-rotation.  During the time in which the
> flow rate is decreasing, the borrowed angular momentum must be paid back,
> exactly with no interest.  So during that phase, there is a rotation in the
> same direction as the above-water sprinkler.
>
>
>
> Some of you mathematical hotties, do explain that observation please,
> using differential equations, or whatever is your favorite mathematical
> technology, including even a digital model or a Matlab sim.  If you manage
> it, the grand prize will be yours: my sincere everlasting admiration.
>

Who needs equations?

The spin is "borrowed from" or "paid back to" the surrounding water.
The above-water use case's spin isn't just for show; the water, by
pushing against the sprinkler and sending it spinning, is in exchange
pushed further.  Likewise, underwater, the water going through the
sprinkler is the medium by which angular momentum is transferred,
and contains the counter-rotation.  (The center of the sprinkler is not
a mathematical point, so there is some spin there.  And by friction,
water that will be going into the sprinkler can affect the motion of
water that will not.)
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Mar 31 04:50:11 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sat, 30 Mar 2013 21:50:11 -0700
Subject: [ExI] underwater sprinkler,
	was: RE: Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRa3kPY7k2g7Hyv5QFvki052eODp6nqPoV0TMXifrH2Vg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
 <CAM5aL2d97z0JNiF00FDf2+kZn5XyNy00-OSFnTjq=DLCDTdf9w@mail.gmail.com>
 <007f01ce2d89$7de5e170$79b1a450$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNRa3kPY7k2g7Hyv5QFvki052eODp6nqPoV0TMXifrH2Vg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <006801ce2dcb$3b456e20$b1d04a60$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
.

>>.Some of you mathematical hotties, do explain that observation please,
using differential equations, or whatever is your favorite mathematical
technology, including even a digital model or a Matlab sim.  If you manage
it, the grand prize will be yours: my sincere everlasting admiration.

 

>.Who needs equations?

.

 

I needs equations.

 

Consider an S-shaped sprinkler suspended from a latex hose, underwater.
Imagine water is pumped thru the sprinkler in the traditional manner at 1 ml
per second, and we discover the sprinkler rotates positive pi radians.  2 ml
per second rotates it 2 pi radians and so on.

 

Now imagine pumping water thru it backwards.  For any steady flow, we
observe zero rotation.  If the flow is accelerated backwards at 1 ml per
second squared, what is the rotation?  If the flow is 2 ml per second
squared, do we get twice the rotation?  If we use a denser fluid, does it
require the same flow acceleration to produce a rotation?  Or less?  Or
more?  Could we use a compressible fluid like air and get similar results?
Does the shape of the nozzles come into play?  There is a lot of science in
that simple experimental setup.  

 

Truth: we don't *really* understand a system until we can derive a system of
simultaneous differential equations that can correctly model its behavior.

 

spike

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From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Mar 31 05:52:10 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 30 Mar 2013 22:52:10 -0700
Subject: [ExI] underwater sprinkler,
	was: RE: Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <006801ce2dcb$3b456e20$b1d04a60$@rainier66.com>
References: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
 <CAM5aL2d97z0JNiF00FDf2+kZn5XyNy00-OSFnTjq=DLCDTdf9w@mail.gmail.com>
 <007f01ce2d89$7de5e170$79b1a450$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNRa3kPY7k2g7Hyv5QFvki052eODp6nqPoV0TMXifrH2Vg@mail.gmail.com>
 <006801ce2dcb$3b456e20$b1d04a60$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ_jcL0g3eJJmjEY+Lavg4fcXAyifZhPZ-v44jboiu4bg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Mar 30, 2013 at 9:50 PM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

> Consider an S-shaped sprinkler suspended from a latex hose, underwater.
> Imagine water is pumped thru the sprinkler in the traditional manner at 1
> ml per second, and we discover the sprinkler rotates positive pi radians.
> 2 ml per second rotates it 2 pi radians and so on.
>
> ** **
>
> Now imagine pumping water thru it backwards.  For any steady flow, we
> observe zero rotation.  If the flow is accelerated backwards at 1 ml per
> second squared, what is the rotation?  If the flow is 2 ml per second
> squared, do we get twice the rotation?  If we use a denser fluid, does it
> require the same flow acceleration to produce a rotation?  Or less?  Or
> more?  Could we use a compressible fluid like air and get similar results?
> Does the shape of the nozzles come into play?  There is a lot of science in
> that simple experimental setup.
>

I suspect simple momentum equations can explain.

If 2 ml per second going in gives double the rotation, then measure the
ml per second coming out, not (directly) the ml per second squared
imparted on the sucked-in water.  A denser fluid would thus increase
acceleration in proportion to its mass...which also explains what
happens if you use air.  The shape certainly comes into play, but that
is subsumed in the measurements; measure the force imparted at
each point of the curve, and you may be able to iterate a formula that
covers the curve, but that is a matter for theory, not experiment.
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Mar 31 17:47:23 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 31 Mar 2013 13:47:23 -0400
Subject: [ExI] underwater sprinkler,
	was: RE: Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <006801ce2dcb$3b456e20$b1d04a60$@rainier66.com>
References: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
 <CAM5aL2d97z0JNiF00FDf2+kZn5XyNy00-OSFnTjq=DLCDTdf9w@mail.gmail.com>
 <007f01ce2d89$7de5e170$79b1a450$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNRa3kPY7k2g7Hyv5QFvki052eODp6nqPoV0TMXifrH2Vg@mail.gmail.com>
 <006801ce2dcb$3b456e20$b1d04a60$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0id-=ct6dYQWVa4xYzwiKjxLv0c2Bj53bbaMzBGbiq7g@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Mar 31, 2013 at 12:50 AM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

> Consider an S-shaped sprinkler suspended from a latex hose, underwater.
> Imagine water is pumped thru the sprinkler in the traditional manner at 1
> ml per second, and we discover the sprinkler rotates positive pi radians.
> 2 ml per second rotates it 2 pi radians and so on.****
>
> Now imagine pumping water thru it backwards.
>

Blowing and sucking are not symmetrical processes, that's why it's easy to
tell if a film of a sprinkler is running forward or backward and why you
can blow water as high as you want but no matter how powerful the pump is
on the surface of the earth you can only suck water about 25 feet. In one
case a pump is increasing pressure inside the narrow sprinkler nozzle
causing the water to move in just one direction, perpendicular to the
nozzle opening. But in the other case when the pump is decreasing pressure
inside the small nozzle the water moves inside because of the outside
pressure produced by the weight of the water and the air on top of it, and
that pressure is coming from all directions so the water is coming through
the opening from all directions too, and so no narrow beam of water is
formed and no net torque is produced.

  John K Clark





>   For any steady flow, we observe zero rotation.  If the flow is
> accelerated backwards at 1 ml per second squared, what is the rotation?  If
> the flow is 2 ml per second squared, do we get twice the rotation?  If we
> use a denser fluid, does it require the same flow acceleration to produce a
> rotation?  Or less?  Or more?  Could we use a compressible fluid like air
> and get similar results?  Does the shape of the nozzles come into play?
> There is a lot of science in that simple experimental setup.  ****
>
> ** **
>
> Truth: we don?t **really** understand a system until we can derive a
> system of simultaneous differential equations that can correctly model its
> behavior.****
>
> ** **
>
> spike****
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Sun Mar 31 16:35:27 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Sun, 31 Mar 2013 08:35:27 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Deep ocean osmotic membranes
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB5b=SjaZO7FPP2Cr88zLAy=SC+S3P4OvNXxhzhNxFq8_w@mail.gmail.com>

Per recent discussion, it is expensive to clean up salt water to the
point it will not clog osmotic membranes.  So after clean up, the
standard practice is to pump the water pressure up to where about
2/3rds of it goes through the membrane leaving 1/3 of the volume as
brine.

The big advantage of going deep is that there is no reason to
concentrate the brine so fresh water is being extracted at minimum
pressure and an awful lot of slightly more salty water flows around
the membranes.  The following is a snip from the paper I wrote in 2009
on how to use energy from power satellites to make fresh water.
Graphene membranes might pass more water per unit area or be less
expensive, but  the energy needed to push the water against osmotic
pressure is the same.

It's possible that we could take advantage of biological fouling and
let the stuff that grows on the membranes *be* the osmotic membrane.

Keith

WATER

Low cost, space-based solar power will solve other problems as well.
The average flow of the Colorado River is ~630 cubic meters/sec (or
2,268,000 cubic meters/hour).  This is a useful amount.   At 1000
l/person/day, it is enough domestic water for 54 million people.  At
the minimum energy (.77kWh/cubic meter) to desalinate this flow from
ocean water, it would take 1.75 GW.  Actual energy consumption for
real reverse-osmosis desalination is about three times this amount,
largely because the discharge water has much more salt in it than sea
water.  Though SBSP produces abundant low-cost electric power, it
would be better if there were a method that would get closer to the
minimum.
One way to get fresh water from salt water is by using the ocean?s own
hydrostatic pressure.

The idea is simple:  put the osmotic membranes in deep ocean water,
the deeper the better, to recover the density difference between fresh
water and salt water.  In the deepest place in the ocean, the density
difference drives fresh water all the way to the surface.  Other
places it needs pumping assistance.  Membranes work below 300 m of
water.  Placed at 300 m the water must be pumped up the full depth.
At 3500 m, water needs to be pumped up only 200 meters.

There will be an engineering tradeoff between reducing energy cost by
putting the membranes in deeper water, the cost of pipelines to shore,
and the energy needed to drive the pumps.  An additional constraint is
the need for a cross-flow of water through the membranes to prevent
brine accumulation.

Deep bottom currents off California are in the 0.01 m/sec range.
Bottom currents in unusual locations such as the mouth of Monterey
Canyon can reach 0.5 m/sec.  High on the continental slopes 0.25 m/sec
is typical.
Not calculated is the downward flow around the membranes from the
relatively denser seawater after extraction of fresh water.  This may
be substantial.

For a design example, consider a 10 km section of freshwater collector
pipe at right angles to the current and 100 m high membranes draining
freshwater into the pipe.  This intercepts a million square meters.
At a cross-flow of 0.25 m/sec and an extraction of 1 % of the water in
seawater flowing between the membranes, the production of freshwater
would be 2500 cubic meters per second, about 4 times the flow of the
Colorado River.  Even for California, that is a lot of water, about 8
times the maximum flow of the California Aqueduct.

The power required to lift 2500 cubic meters of water 200 meters
against g would be:
P = Q*g*h/pump efficiency, where Q is in cubic meters/sec and h is the
lift in meters.  Pumps in this size are 0.9 efficient,
2500*9.8*200/0.9 is 5.4 GW.

Check, 0.77 kWh/cubic meter*2500 cubic meters/sec*3600 sec/hr = 6.9
GW, but some of the energy is coming from the density difference
between fresh and salt water.

At a penny per kWh the energy cost per cubic meter would be 5.4
GW*$10,000/GW-hr/2500 cubic meters/sec*3600sec/hr or 0.6 cents per
cubic meter, somewhat high for irrigation water, but fine for domestic
supplies.  (Capital and maintenance will add to this number, probably
not more than a cent.)

One uncertainty is biological fouling.



From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Mar 31 20:31:12 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sun, 31 Mar 2013 13:31:12 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Deep ocean osmotic membranes
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB5b=SjaZO7FPP2Cr88zLAy=SC+S3P4OvNXxhzhNxFq8_w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB5b=SjaZO7FPP2Cr88zLAy=SC+S3P4OvNXxhzhNxFq8_w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00e901ce2e4e$b36a7bb0$1a3f7310$@rainier66.com>


>...-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Keith Henson
Subject: [ExI] Deep ocean osmotic membranes

>...Per recent discussion, it is expensive to clean up salt water to the
point it will not clog osmotic membranes.  So after clean up, the standard
practice is to pump the water pressure up to where about 2/3rds of it goes
through the membrane leaving 1/3 of the volume as brine.



Keith this paper is brilliance, me lad!

I agree, it seems there should be some way to do this, extract fresh water
without enormous pressure differentials.  We know that plants grow in the
sea: the giant kelp beds.  I have devour seaweed, and it clearly does not
taste as salty as seawater.  Therefore, my reasoning tells me that kelp
somehow osmosises or osmosizes, or osmizes fresh water, or otherwise
extracts (since I know how to spell that verb) fresh or freshish water using
sunlight somehow.  So if dumb old plants can do it, blind, brainless members
of that lowly kingdom, we smart guys up at the pinnacle of technological
intelligence scale on the ranking taxonomic division should be able to
figure out how to do it, even if we need to employ the chlorophyll-meisters.


spike







From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Mar 31 21:05:32 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sun, 31 Mar 2013 14:05:32 -0700
Subject: [ExI] underwater sprinkler,
	was: RE: Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv0id-=ct6dYQWVa4xYzwiKjxLv0c2Bj53bbaMzBGbiq7g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
 <CAM5aL2d97z0JNiF00FDf2+kZn5XyNy00-OSFnTjq=DLCDTdf9w@mail.gmail.com>
 <007f01ce2d89$7de5e170$79b1a450$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNRa3kPY7k2g7Hyv5QFvki052eODp6nqPoV0TMXifrH2Vg@mail.gmail.com>
 <006801ce2dcb$3b456e20$b1d04a60$@rainier66.com>
 <CAJPayv0id-=ct6dYQWVa4xYzwiKjxLv0c2Bj53bbaMzBGbiq7g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00ea01ce2e53$7daaec80$7900c580$@rainier66.com>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of John Clark
Subject: Re: [ExI] underwater sprinkler, was: RE: Musical instruments in
space

 

On Sun, Mar 31, 2013 at 12:50 AM, spike <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

 

>>. Consider an S-shaped sprinkler suspended from a latex hose, underwater.
Imagine water is pumped thru the sprinkler in the traditional manner at 1 ml
per second, and we discover the sprinkler rotates positive pi radians.  2 ml
per second rotates it 2 pi radians and so on.

Now imagine pumping water thru it backwards.


>.Blowing and sucking are not symmetrical processes, that's why it's easy to
tell if a film of a sprinkler is running forward or backward and why you can
blow water as high as you want but no matter how powerful the pump is on the
surface of the earth you can only suck water about 25 feet. In one case a
pump is increasing pressure inside the narrow sprinkler nozzle causing the
water to move in just one direction, perpendicular to the nozzle opening.
But in the other case when the pump is decreasing pressure inside the small
nozzle the water moves inside because of the outside pressure produced by
the weight of the water and the air on top of it, and that pressure is
coming from all directions so the water is coming through the opening from
all directions too, and so no narrow beam of water is formed and no net
torque is produced.

  John K Clark



Ja, agreed John however your commentary (I think) applies to steady state
and integration over time torque equals zero, which is what I think you
meant by "no net torque is produced."  Yet we know that increasing and
decreasing flows do create a torque.  Try it!  Bend some copper tube, attach
to a plumber's T, some latex tube, a reversible DC motor water pump (all of
which are available at the local hardware store for about 30 bucks for all
of it) and try it.

 

But I am asking the question from the point of view of a controls engineer.
Imagine you are trying to control the position of the S, and all you have is
the reversible water pump.  Until we can write equations to describe that
motion, we cannot derive a control system.  We can't use any of those wicked
cool mathematical tools we moderns have in our bag of controls magic tricks.


 

I have tried to derive those equations, and I have failed so far.  But if
you manage to derive the equations of motion, I can show you how to solve
them and make a controls system.  Then we can rig up a physical-world
analog, test it to see if we know what we are doing, or if we are just a
bunch of controls wannabes.  {8^D   If someone here manages the derivation
and it turns out simple, I will be highly annoyed.  But I will get over it.


 

Notice the indistinguishable-from-god Richard Feynman himself mentioned the
underwater sprinkler in his book Surely You're Joking, but didn't offer the
equations of motion, or even suggest they found them.  The bigshot future
Nobel physicist himself immediately surrendered and went straight to
physical-world analog and lab setups, which failed explosively.  (Get
Feynman's book, it's hilarious, page 52 in the Bantam edition, or if another
edition, the page right before the chapter titled "Meeeeeeee!")

 

I have half a mind to contact some mechanical engineering professors up at
Stanford (or that other local school, Berk something or other) see if their
students want to take up the challenge.  Who would have thought, such a
simple little mechanical device with only one moving part could be so
educational and challenging?

 

spike

 

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From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Mar 31 21:48:13 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 31 Mar 2013 22:48:13 +0100
Subject: [ExI] underwater sprinkler,
	was: RE: Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <00ea01ce2e53$7daaec80$7900c580$@rainier66.com>
References: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
 <CAM5aL2d97z0JNiF00FDf2+kZn5XyNy00-OSFnTjq=DLCDTdf9w@mail.gmail.com>
 <007f01ce2d89$7de5e170$79b1a450$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNRa3kPY7k2g7Hyv5QFvki052eODp6nqPoV0TMXifrH2Vg@mail.gmail.com>
 <006801ce2dcb$3b456e20$b1d04a60$@rainier66.com>
 <CAJPayv0id-=ct6dYQWVa4xYzwiKjxLv0c2Bj53bbaMzBGbiq7g@mail.gmail.com>
 <00ea01ce2e53$7daaec80$7900c580$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhU1pmPVhgKYfomZPcx3GDqaZYgOdaHY6bpJfWGqwtKcA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Mar 31, 2013 at 10:05 PM, spike wrote:
<snip>
> I have tried to derive those equations, and I have failed so far.  But if
> you manage to derive the equations of motion, I can show you how to solve
> them and make a controls system.  Then we can rig up a physical-world
> analog, test it to see if we know what we are doing, or if we are just a
> bunch of controls wannabes.  {8^D   If someone here manages the derivation
> and it turns out simple, I will be highly annoyed.  But I will get over it.
>
>

<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feynman_sprinkler>
Quote:
The smallness of the torque on a reverse sprinkler is closely
analogous to the propulsion of the so-called "pop pop boat," a toy
boat that moves forward as it alternately expels and then sucks in
water through a pipe connected to a small internal tank heated by a
candle.



BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Mar 31 22:05:30 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sun, 31 Mar 2013 15:05:30 -0700
Subject: [ExI] underwater sprinkler,
	was: RE: Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhU1pmPVhgKYfomZPcx3GDqaZYgOdaHY6bpJfWGqwtKcA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
 <CAM5aL2d97z0JNiF00FDf2+kZn5XyNy00-OSFnTjq=DLCDTdf9w@mail.gmail.com>
 <007f01ce2d89$7de5e170$79b1a450$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNRa3kPY7k2g7Hyv5QFvki052eODp6nqPoV0TMXifrH2Vg@mail.gmail.com>
 <006801ce2dcb$3b456e20$b1d04a60$@rainier66.com>
 <CAJPayv0id-=ct6dYQWVa4xYzwiKjxLv0c2Bj53bbaMzBGbiq7g@mail.gmail.com>
 <00ea01ce2e53$7daaec80$7900c580$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhU1pmPVhgKYfomZPcx3GDqaZYgOdaHY6bpJfWGqwtKcA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00fd01ce2e5b$dc25a7c0$9470f740$@rainier66.com>


>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] underwater sprinkler, was: RE: Musical instruments in
space

On Sun, Mar 31, 2013 at 10:05 PM, spike wrote:
<snip>
>>... I have tried to derive those equations, and I have failed so far.  But

> if you manage to derive the equations of motion, I can show you how to 
> solve them and make a controls system.  Then we can rig up a 
> physical-world analog, test it to see if we know what we are doing, or if
we are just a
> bunch of controls wannabes.  {8^D   If someone here manages the derivation
> and it turns out simple, I will be highly annoyed.  But I will get over
it.

>...<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feynman_sprinkler>
Quote:
>...The smallness of the torque on a reverse sprinkler is closely analogous
to the propulsion of the so-called "pop pop boat," a toy boat that moves
forward as it alternately expels and then sucks in water through a pipe
connected to a small internal tank heated by a candle...BillK
_______________________________________________


Ja.  But give us equations, me lad.  We cannot solve sentences and
paragraphs, we cannot derive a control system from it.  If we do this right,
we could play a song with that underwater sprinkler.  It would be a fun
accomplishment.  We could show it to the controls grad students and ask
them: can you do this?

spike



From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Mar 31 22:37:02 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 31 Mar 2013 23:37:02 +0100
Subject: [ExI] underwater sprinkler,
	was: RE: Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <00fd01ce2e5b$dc25a7c0$9470f740$@rainier66.com>
References: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
 <CAM5aL2d97z0JNiF00FDf2+kZn5XyNy00-OSFnTjq=DLCDTdf9w@mail.gmail.com>
 <007f01ce2d89$7de5e170$79b1a450$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNRa3kPY7k2g7Hyv5QFvki052eODp6nqPoV0TMXifrH2Vg@mail.gmail.com>
 <006801ce2dcb$3b456e20$b1d04a60$@rainier66.com>
 <CAJPayv0id-=ct6dYQWVa4xYzwiKjxLv0c2Bj53bbaMzBGbiq7g@mail.gmail.com>
 <00ea01ce2e53$7daaec80$7900c580$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhU1pmPVhgKYfomZPcx3GDqaZYgOdaHY6bpJfWGqwtKcA@mail.gmail.com>
 <00fd01ce2e5b$dc25a7c0$9470f740$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armg916bR0gLkcHdkd3Mz8BDdwUPDfQiO=i+nn06ngmTfwQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Mar 31, 2013 at 11:05 PM, spike wrote:
> Ja.  But give us equations, me lad.  We cannot solve sentences and
> paragraphs, we cannot derive a control system from it.  If we do this right,
> we could play a song with that underwater sprinkler.  It would be a fun
> accomplishment.  We could show it to the controls grad students and ask
> them: can you do this?
>
>

I doubt it. The effect is very small and experiments only show the
effect with very low-friction bearings on the sprinkler. i.e. a
specially made sprinkler with 'expensive' bearings.

But the equations are in the referenced papers.
See: <http://arxiv.org/pdf/0908.3190v4.pdf>

BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Mar 31 23:24:47 2013
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike)
Date: Sun, 31 Mar 2013 16:24:47 -0700
Subject: [ExI] underwater sprinkler,
	was: RE: Musical instruments in space
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armg916bR0gLkcHdkd3Mz8BDdwUPDfQiO=i+nn06ngmTfwQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <012301ce1c08$fe451760$facf4620$@rainier66.com>
 <CAM5aL2d97z0JNiF00FDf2+kZn5XyNy00-OSFnTjq=DLCDTdf9w@mail.gmail.com>
 <007f01ce2d89$7de5e170$79b1a450$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNRa3kPY7k2g7Hyv5QFvki052eODp6nqPoV0TMXifrH2Vg@mail.gmail.com>
 <006801ce2dcb$3b456e20$b1d04a60$@rainier66.com>
 <CAJPayv0id-=ct6dYQWVa4xYzwiKjxLv0c2Bj53bbaMzBGbiq7g@mail.gmail.com>
 <00ea01ce2e53$7daaec80$7900c580$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhU1pmPVhgKYfomZPcx3GDqaZYgOdaHY6bpJfWGqwtKcA@mail.gmail.com>
 <00fd01ce2e5b$dc25a7c0$9470f740$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armg916bR0gLkcHdkd3Mz8BDdwUPDfQiO=i+nn06ngmTfwQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <000301ce2e66$f2f111f0$d8d335d0$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
Sent: Sunday, March 31, 2013 3:37 PM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] underwater sprinkler, was: RE: Musical instruments in
space

On Sun, Mar 31, 2013 at 11:05 PM, spike wrote:
>>... Ja.  But give us equations, me lad.  We cannot solve sentences and 
> paragraphs, we cannot derive a control system from it.  If we do this 
> right, we could play a song with that underwater sprinkler.  It would 
> be a fun accomplishment.  We could show it to the controls grad 
> students and ask them: can you do this?
>
>

>...I doubt it. The effect is very small...

The physics grad student would take this as a red-cape challenge.  {8-]

>... and experiments only show the effect with very low-friction bearings on
the sprinkler. i.e. a specially made sprinkler with 'expensive' bearings...

Hmmm, the way I did it uses no bearings.  I suspended the S-shaped sprinkler
by a latex tube and drew the water up thru that.  The whole experimental
setup is cheap and entertaining.  You don't even need a pump.  You can use
an aquarium or just a big bucket of water, then bring the other end of the
latex hose and put it in a gallon container of water, and evacuate the air
to get a siphon effect.  Then you lower the gallon container, water flows
backward into the sprinkler and into the gallon.  Raise the gallon and water
flows by gravity back out of the sprinkler.  You could put together
something like that with stuff you have around the house with practically no
cost at all, and it will react to extraordinarily low torques.  You could
even estimate flow rates with that simple setup.

>...But the equations are in the referenced papers.
See: <http://arxiv.org/pdf/0908.3190v4.pdf>

>...BillK
_______________________________________________

Ja, I imagine there is a non-steady state set of equations in the Jenkins
paper, ref 14.  Isn't it astonishing that all this ink has been spilled
about such an apparently trivial topic dating back from the 1880s all the
way up until at least 2009?  That blows my mind.  Even more so when I read
some of the online comments and see that this simple experiment is still not
fully understood, even by guys like me, who wasted a lot of mental clock
cycles on it and even built an experimental setup.

spike