[ExI] Moore's Law

[Adrian Tymes]

On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 10:09 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> There is no fundamental progress in software. The progress in hardware has
> recently been limited, especially since Moore has ended.

The data I've seen suggests that Moore's Law continues through the
present day - at least for actually released hardware.  There is no
end of reasons to believe that the next hardware won't quite keep up
the improvement, that we have reached fundamental physical limits
or the like - and yet, the hardware keeps improving, maintaining its
net overall increase pace by other means.  Often this is done by
incorporating design tricks that are not technically impacted by said
physical limits.  For instance, even if we were at the limit for the
minimum number of atoms one could use for memory, there is now
research in encoding bits into individual electrons, allowing for
multiple bits per atom...and there may be ways to do multiple bits
per electron.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law has data that shows it
continued at least through 2011.  So if Moore's Law has ended, one
would need to show that with data from 2011-2013,..and as late
1990s data from that graph shows, the long-term progress continues
even if there are slowdowns for a few years.

So - I'd say the data rather firmly shows that Moore's Law has not
ended.