[ExI] i miss intrade

[spike]

>... On Behalf Of spike
Subject: Re: [ExI] i miss intrade


>... On Behalf Of Giulio Prisco
ubject: Re: [ExI] i miss intrade

>>...There are many active claims, took at the menu Sport Politics 
>>...Economics ...Entertainment Sci/Tech

https://www.predictious.com/

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>...Oh OK thanks, found it.   User error, didn't look around enough.  Thanks
Giulio, this is less lame than Iowa Futures, better user interface, etc.
spike

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Giulio, this is so cool!  Just from a memetic point of view, it really has
my wheels turning.  

Check my reasoning on this please.  The company (Predictious) isn't selling
advertisement but it occurred to me how it could be making its living:
speculating on Bitcoin using other people's money.  All transactions are in
BTC.  Short sellers must put up the money (10 mBTC per share) up front to
cover the cost if the contract is adjudicated true, in order to pay off the
true-holders.  The true-buyers must pay up front as well, so if the contract
ends up false that money goes to pay off false-holders and short sellers.
So the company is holding no currency other than BTCs. 

Giulio, is this right?  Do educate me if this line of reasoning isn't
correct, for I am sooo not hip to this stuff you younger guys do.  Also
recognize my terminology dates back to Robin Hanson's Ideas Futures days,
where a contract was eventually true or false.  Now instead of buying Noes,
this new system has you short selling Yeses.  I like the new system, even
though it isn't true short selling.

So if Predictious is a company with no other income, but is just holding
BTCs, then they can be perfectly honest, always pay all contract holders,
etc, and make buttloads of money by de facto speculation on the time value
of bitcoins.  If bitcoin goes to a skerjillion bucks, well, there they go.
There are long bets in which the contract holder could perish while the
claim is active, then they never claim the prize.  If BTC crashes, their
debts are in bitcoin, so they can still pay off, irregardful.  Predictious
makes a cubic buttload of money either way.  

Oh evolution, this is brilliant.

spike