[ExI] A Gedanken Rational Eugenics Experiment (AGREE)
rex
rex at nosyntax.net
Thu Oct 24 01:16:19 UTC 2013
(I've no idea if anyone here is interested, but the best way to find
out is to chum the water...)
Since IQ is highly heritable, all else being equal, mean IQ would rise
if low IQ individuals were offered payment not to breed. How would
such a program play out?
Simulation is a good way to explore the issue.
A fairly realistic simulation would require far more coding work than
I'm willing to invest, so I propose a Gedanken experiment: a world
where there are only females, each of whom has one child (and is
replaced by the child), or opts out of having children. Those who opt
out are replaced by a child with a Gaussian IQ with the mean and SD of
the population.
Now the eugenics: women with an IQ 1 SDs below the (current) mean IQ
of the population are offered a payment not to breed. What happens
to the population mean IQ over time when various percentages of low-IQ
women accept the payment?
Below are results from the latest version. Note the large difference in
the percentage of HighIQ people when 75% choose not to breed vs 50% vs 25%.
The HighIQ% column is the percentage of the population that has an IQ
greater than or equal to the cutoff, which is 140. IOW, when 75% of
the low-IQ group accepts the payment and does not breed, the percentage
of the population that is IQ 140+ increases from an initial 0.6% to
33%. Clearly, such a huge change in the fraction of high-IQ people
would have profound effects upon society.
Initial mean IQ, SD 100.3 16.1
Heritability of IQ 0.7 HighIQ is IQ of 140 or more
IQs 1.0 SDs below mean offered payment not to breed, 75.0 % accept
Generation IQ SD Opt-in% HighIQ% QualIQ
1 102.6 16.1 11.5 0.6 87
2 105.2 16.0 12.3 1.0 89
3 107.5 16.0 12.1 1.2 92
4 109.9 15.9 11.8 2.2 94
5 112.2 15.9 11.6 2.9 96
6 114.6 15.9 11.7 4.2 99
7 117.0 15.9 11.8 5.7 101
8 119.4 15.9 11.8 7.2 103
9 121.5 16.2 11.7 9.7 105
10 123.9 16.2 11.5 12.9 108
11 126.3 15.9 12.3 16.1 110
12 128.5 16.0 11.7 19.8 112
13 130.6 16.0 12.0 23.4 115
14 132.9 16.1 11.6 27.6 117
15 135.0 15.8 12.1 33.0 119
iq_sel6.py
Initial mean IQ, SD 99.9 16.0
Heritability of IQ 0.7 HighIQ is IQ of 140 or more
IQs 1.0 SDs below mean offered payment not to breed, 50.0 % accept
Generation IQ SD Opt-in% HighIQ% QualIQ
1 101.5 15.9 8.5 0.6 85
2 102.8 16.0 7.9 0.8 87
3 104.4 16.1 8.2 1.0 88
4 105.6 16.1 8.2 1.4 90
5 107.0 16.0 7.9 1.7 91
6 108.7 16.0 8.1 2.1 93
7 110.1 16.2 7.8 2.2 94
8 111.7 16.2 8.3 3.3 96
9 113.3 16.0 8.1 3.9 97
10 115.0 16.0 8.1 4.8 99
11 116.5 16.2 7.9 5.7 100
12 118.0 16.0 8.2 7.2 102
13 119.8 16.0 8.1 8.4 104
14 121.4 16.1 7.7 10.2 105
15 122.8 15.9 7.7 12.3 107
iq_sel6.py
Initial mean IQ, SD 99.9 15.9
Heritability of IQ 0.7 HighIQ is IQ of 140 or more
IQs 1.0 SDs below mean offered payment not to breed, 25.0 % accept
Generation IQ SD Opt-in% HighIQ% QualIQ
1 100.8 16.2 3.9 0.6 85
2 101.3 16.0 4.3 0.7 85
3 102.2 15.9 3.7 0.8 86
4 102.9 15.9 4.2 0.9 87
5 103.7 16.1 3.7 0.9 88
6 104.2 16.1 4.0 1.1 88
7 105.3 16.1 4.4 1.4 89
8 106.2 15.9 4.2 1.5 90
9 106.7 16.0 3.9 1.8 91
10 107.4 16.1 3.9 1.7 91
11 108.1 16.0 3.8 2.1 92
12 108.9 16.2 4.0 2.3 93
13 109.9 16.1 3.9 2.7 94
14 110.6 16.0 4.0 3.0 95
15 111.4 16.1 4.0 3.2 95
Note that even when only 25% of the low-IQ women choose not to breed
the fraction of high-IQ people increases by a factor of 5.
If one subscribes to the "smart fraction" theory of civilizations, then
even this result is highly significant.
Smart fraction theory:
http://www.lagriffedulion.f2s.com/sft.htm
http://www.lagriffedulion.f2s.com/sft2.htm
All La Griffe du Lion's material:
http://www.lagriffedulion.f2s.com/
Thoughts?
(Python program attached.)
-rex
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