[ExI] The Actual Visionary of the Future

Anders Sandberg anders at aleph.se
Fri Oct 25 14:12:42 UTC 2013

On 2013-10-25 15:30, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> LAR is not just limited in time, but also in scope. Exponential 
> processes are the exception, rather than the rule. And that exception 
> never lasts long.

In a sense they are ubiquitous, since they represent the transition from 
one metastable state to another. Look carefully at punctuated 
equilibrium and you will see plenty of tiny exponentials as state B 
replaces state A at an exponential pace (and then slow exponentially, 
making a rapid sigmoid). Whether you say they are rare or not depends on 
what you count: events or moments.

*Ongoing* chains of sigmoids making large scale exponentials is a more 
daring prediction from the LAR people. If that is true for our era, it 
might simply represent that we are in the phase transition from one 
stable state (unmanaged matter) to another stable state (managed 
matter). Given that it happens fairly early in the universe's expected 
history it might just be a nucleation transition.

Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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