# [ExI] Hard Drives, What Comes Next

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Tue Oct 29 18:08:59 UTC 2013

```On Tue, Oct 29, 2013 at 10:43:03AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> I present this as refutation of the idea that hard drives are approaching
> the end of their exponential growth, even in their current state.

I present above statement as evidence that I can write anything,
because nobody is going to read it, anyway. (Or, perhaps, I shouldn't
bother writing anything at all, and save us all the aggravation).

Either you believe in linear semilog plots, or you don't.
So any deviation from a linear semilog is either evidence for you
or against you. You can't have it both ways.

Either you believe that there is a magic mechanism by which
a technology arises just in time to be passed on the torch from
the failing without stumbling, or you don't.

If there's a falure to bridge the gap you'll get a kink in
the curve, and inverted hockey stick. Some gaps are very short,
some less so. You don't get to cherrypick which gaps are
significant, and which aren't.

So in 2027 the world will have 16 TW cumulated PV
capacity, that's 48 TWp (currently it has 0.1 TWp,
added within 20 years, this is lost in the error
margins).

You've got 7 doublings yet to go. I'll spell Ray's implications
out, all errors are mine:

year added capacity TWp

2010
+0.06 TWp (actual data)
2012

2013
+0.19 TWp (so far 0.037 TWp added in 2013, my guess this will be 0.077 TWp instead of 0.19 TWp, so -0.113 TWp gap)
2015
+0.38 TWp (mind the gap?)
2017
+1.5 TWp  (mind the gap?)
2019
+3.0 TWp  (mind the gap?)
2021
+6.0 TWp  (mind the gap?)
2023
+12 TWp   (mind the gap?)
2025
+24 TWp   (mind the gap?)
2027

Do these numbers really look good to you? You'll notice we're already kinda
off-track, here.

How do you like your serving of crow? Roasted, boiled, smoked?

```