[ExI] What's Wrong With Academic Futurists?

[natasha at natasha.cc]

Yes, I have too. I worked as a contractor through IBM researching
non-invasive human enhancement technologies for the military. 

On another note, there is a distinct difference between futurists who make
predictions and those who forecast. The former (predictions) is an expected
outcome of an event or set of influencers on a and a forecast specifically
proposes one or more possible futures (usually with a backcasting
technique).

Whether a self-proclaimed futurist who has a gut-instinct (which  I think
has enormous credibility because not everyone is in-tune to the same data
and someone could be more insightful because of her/his level of
understanding of people, trends, etc.) or one that employs strategic methods
and means and calls him/herself a forecaster, no one really can say 100%
with scientific certainty that one future will outperform another future.
Because of this, futurists invite observations that give them some rope:
wild cards, unforeseen influencers, unintended consequences, tipping points,
Black Swan, etc.

What is cool is to experiments with Stella and other software to test drive
influences of variables in a forecasting scenario.

Natasha


-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Robin D Hanson
Sent: Sunday, January 26, 2014 10:40 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] What's Wrong With Academic Futurists?

On Jan 26, 2014, at 11:55 AM, spike wrote
>> If you have no confidence in "people's" ability to predict, I don't 
>> see how that can be the basis for preferring some people's ability 
>> over others...Robin Hanson  http://hanson.gmu.edu
> 
> Robin, there is a field of professional forecasters a bit like what 
> you are describing, but we have no access to their work because it is 
> classified secret.  ...
> The military has a specific branch of service with a specialized 
> calculus designed to deal with an astonishing array of variables in 
> the field of futurism.  When guys retire from this discipline, they 
> are highly prized by industry for that ability.

There are obviously many reasons why folks with military experience might be
prized by industry. So while there may be a secret cadre of unusually
accurate military futurists, I don't see how the rest of us can tell. 

I've given talks to military futurist groups before, FYI.

Robin Hanson  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Res. Assoc., Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford Univ.
Assoc. Professor, George Mason University Chief Scientist, Consensus Point
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323




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