[ExI] putin and the three pirates problem

[Aleksei Riikonen]

I predict that Russia will not only take Crimea, but the rest of
Ukraine as well (non-militarily probably, though this is not certain)
within a couple of years, chiefly because this crisis will end up
showing that the EU is actually extremely weak. The West of course
doesn't have the balls to send troops, and neither will they cough up
the money with which they could now probably take Ukraine if they
really wanted to.

Russia's relations with the West will deteriorate, yes, but Putin
doesn't really mind, since a more confrontational international mood
might actually make it easier for him to remain in power (Russia's
economic prospects were already fading anyway, so he needs some other
angle). He is fine with Russia becoming more of a rogue state.
Meanwhile, the EU will actually lose *a lot* as a consequence of this
crisis, since they will end up looking much weaker than many people
yet realized they are. (The whole EU project will btw collapse in the
next few decades once Germany gets tired of paying the bills for
everyone and calls it quits.)

The US, on the other hand, just doesn't genuinely care very much about
Ukraine. They probably won't even put up any real sanctions on Russia,
since the EU weaklings will object to those, e.g. because European
bankers want to continue making money hiding and laundering the wealth
of Putin's gang.

-- 
Aleksei Riikonen - http://www.iki.fi/aleksei