[ExI] putin and the three pirates problem

Anders Sandberg anders at aleph.se
Wed Mar 5 00:26:05 UTC 2014


Aleksei Riikonen <aleksei at iki.fi> , 5/3/2014 1:03 AM:
On Tue, Mar 4, 2014 at 8:41 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote: 
> 
> If Russia invaded  Estonia or Latvia NATO would be treaty bound to 
> intervene militarily, and I hate to think where that would lead. 
 
Probably to the US saying "screw you guys, we're not gonna risk 
nuclear war over you. It was nice having you as cannon fodder in Iraq 
and Afghanistan, but since Russia called our bluff and this NATO thing 
therefore no longer works for us, we're just gonna forget about the 
whole thing and let you Eastern Europeans sort things out amongst 
yourselves. In other words, we think the new normal is that countries 
with nuclear weapons are free to invade any country without nuclear 
weapons." 
At that point the power gets cut to the US military bases in Germany and elsewhere. Treaties are serious matters, and not just bureaucratic games. 
The US force projection ability is very dependent on a friendly nations providing support - one reason the US is desperately trying to keep Pakistan playing along despite parts of the government doing things that would get most normal nations placed on the 'axis of evil'. It is quite essential for the US ability to do anything in Afghanistan, including withdrawing (just like Turkmenistan, another somewhat sleazy government). Just look at how Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan have exploited the dependency. I would expect a noticeable harshening in US tone against Pakistan as soon as the last soldiers leave Afghanistan. 
It is of course always possible to leave allies out to hang, but it does tend to come back and bite you. The US has done a pretty impressive job of it over the past decade, and it is actually showing in its current impotence - immense political capital and goodwill has been lost. 

Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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