[ExI] Our place in the really really BIG Universe.

[Anders Sandberg]

It is one of the best pictures ever.

On 2015-12-01 10:37, BillK wrote:
> I wonder how many other species have gazed at this view in awe........
>
Well, it is only one part of 40 million, so roughly speaking if each civ 
looks at one such part we should expect one civ in 40 million to have 
looked at it. This of course ignores that space is 3D, that some civs 
look at more or less etc.

If there are N other civilizations that have this spot in the visible 
universe, the chance that all of them miss a spot that there is 
probability p of seeing is (1-p)^N. For p=2.5e-8, if there are a million 
civilizations, the chance is 97%. A billion civilizations, essentially 
zero.

A civilization looking at k spots is equivalent to k civilizations 
looking at one spot in the above calculation, so a million civs taking 
1000 pictures is equivalent to a billion civs.



-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University