[ExI] taxonomy for fermi paradox fans:

[John Clark]

On Mon, Feb 2, 2015  Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

>
> Yes but do you think the confluence of positive feedback loops and
>> intelligence might produce effects that are weird enough?  I hope not but
>> that's my fear.
>
>
> > They need to be very weird. They need to strike well before the point
> humanity can make a self-replicating von Neumann probe (since it can be
> given a simple non-changing paperclipper AI and sent off on its merry way,
> breaking the Fermi silence once and for all) - if they didn't, they are not
> strong enough to work as a Fermi explanation. So either there is a very low
> technology ceiling, or we should see these feedbacks acting now or in the
> very near future,
>

Could drug addiction be the first signs of that very dangerous positive
feedback loop? During most of human existence it was a nonissue, but then
about 8000 BC alcoholic beverages were invented, but they were so dilute
you'd really have to work at it to get into trouble. Then about 500 years
ago distilled alcoholic beverages were invented and it became much easier
to become a alcoholic. Today we have many drugs that are far more powerful
than alcohol. What happens if this trend continues exponentially?

I doubt the [von Neumann] probe is more than a  century ahead of us in tech
> capability.


I agree


> > Intelligence doesn't seem to lead to convergence in our civilization:
> smart people generally do not agree or think alike


Yes, so even if many or even most ETs think that sending out a von
Neumann probe
would be a bad idea there will always be somebody who disagrees. And it
only takes one.

 John K Clark
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