[ExI] SETI for Post Singularity Civs
protokol2020 at gmail.com
Fri Jan 23 08:02:52 UTC 2015
> John Clark is making the important point that the giant lack of obvious
large-scale engineering is STRONG EVIDENCE in favor of there being no
civilizations in our galaxy that have the capacity for large-scale
This is true. But not only the absence of some artificial structures, even
the presence of the natural matter in the form of stars and galaxies is a
strong evidence that nobody very smart is out there.
Had been an advanced civilization anywhere around us, it would have made
some preventions against supernovae. Against some future aggressive aliens
and all other possible calamities. I mean, we can't tolerate Betelgeuse for
much longer. It will explode in our faces soon. We have to dismantle it, if
this is still possible, if the explosion has not already happened.
The presence of the natural stars alone, is the proof of the absence of the
intelligent civilizations. However odd it may sound, it's true.
On Thu, Jan 22, 2015 at 8:44 PM, Flexman, Connor <connor_flexman at brown.edu>
> I think the main point of conflict over the debate in this thread arises
> from people considering two different phenomenon. John Clark is making the
> important point that the giant lack of obvious large-scale engineering is
> STRONG EVIDENCE in favor of there being no civilizations in our galaxy that
> have the capacity for large-scale engineering. In the last few emails I
> have counted >10 nice, creative alternative hypotheses for why we don't see
> some specific type of this evidence, and these are very helpful to clarify
> where the null hypothesis might be wrong. However, it's important to make
> this distinction, that where our priors strongly suggest that large-scale
> engineering would be visible as large-scale engineering, alternative
> hypotheses need to be extraordinarily powerful and explanatory to beat out
> the null hypothesis. I am glad we are generating all these other thoughts,
> but it should be noted that the obvious leader is that there exist no such
> civilizations. It may help our cumulative understanding to keep this in
> mind, consider all the evidence that there is no such civilization, and if
> someone has a hypothesis that they think is strong enough to be in the top
> 2 or 3 (of course others are helpful to mention to, but with the caveat
> that they're improbable), they note the predictive power of that and why it
> can explain many of the phenomenon we see.
> Non est salvatori salvator,
> neque defensori dominus,
> nec pater nec mater,
> nihil supernum.
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