From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Jan  2 15:45:39 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 2 Jan 2016 15:45:39 +0000
Subject: [ExI] META:MATH Spreadsheet for 'Don't Knows'
Message-ID: <CAL_armjmZ_pajv3KVmy==ZdjJawE4VVL221xJsCGtE41zOR7mw@mail.gmail.com>

Looks like this could be a good toy for playing with probability
ranges in spreadsheets.

<https://medium.com/guesstimate-blog>

Introducing Guesstimate, a Spreadsheet for Things That Aren?t Certain.


BillK



From spike66 at att.net  Sat Jan  2 18:12:04 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 2 Jan 2016 10:12:04 -0800
Subject: [ExI] META:MATH Spreadsheet for 'Don't Knows'
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjmZ_pajv3KVmy==ZdjJawE4VVL221xJsCGtE41zOR7mw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjmZ_pajv3KVmy==ZdjJawE4VVL221xJsCGtE41zOR7mw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00b401d14589$16e49410$44adbc30$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
Sent: Saturday, January 02, 2016 7:46 AM
To: Extropy Chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: [ExI] META:MATH Spreadsheet for 'Don't Knows'

Looks like this could be a good toy for playing with probability ranges in spreadsheets.

<https://medium.com/guesstimate-blog>

Introducing Guesstimate, a Spreadsheet for Things That Aren?t Certain.


BillK

_______________________________________________


Cool!  

BillK, you have been around here long enough to remember how I was predicting time intervals until the next record-breaking largest known prime number would be discovered.  Damien Broderick wrote about those predictions in the 2001 Forge hardbound edition of The Spike, pp86-87.  

I won a ton of "money" in Robin Hanson's Ideas Futures with those predictions, betting on intervals the math hipsters insisted could not be calculated.  After I won thrice, no one would be against me, so I couldn't make any more "money" on that concept, but no matter: the uncertainty interval was growing such that the predictions would have become almost useless anyway.  (Side note: Ideas Futures players, do you remember how Ideas Futures spun down?  (Interesting story behind that.  (Robin Hanson is still around.  (He was in town a couple years ago for Peter McCluskey's wedding.))))

I used the same techniques your friend's guesstimate sheet uses, with a few exceptions.  My distributions were not so much Gaussian, although I used that one at least once.  My model had a Poisson binomial in there for one of the terms, a Gaussian distribution to model cumulative probability, a polynomial growth model and so forth, a less-sophisticated version of what Anders posts here occasionally (thanks for that Anders, you offer your friends and followers a free education in stuff that matters.)  I just did an old-fashioned Monte Carlo with the multiple probability distributions and made my prediction.  I nailed it thrice, but I realized after the fact that I got lucky all three times: I had compensating errors.  Or if not errors, then I had compensating weaknesses in my models.

Anyway, it is quite the topic of discussion at the local Mersenne Prime geek parties we have around here every time GIMPS finds a new record prime.  The true mathematicians argued that the PDF superposition technique is not valid for this purpose (I now think they were right) but the engineers argued that predictions based on superposition of cumulative probability are made all the time (true enough, but that doesn't make it mathematically valid.)  Probability theory is full of paradox.  Engineers still abuse math.

spike

 




From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sat Jan  2 20:20:52 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sat, 2 Jan 2016 15:20:52 -0500
Subject: [ExI] META:MATH Spreadsheet for 'Don't Knows'
In-Reply-To: <00b401d14589$16e49410$44adbc30$@att.net>
References: <CAL_armjmZ_pajv3KVmy==ZdjJawE4VVL221xJsCGtE41zOR7mw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00b401d14589$16e49410$44adbc30$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0Xr0e1RjQYhMB36SjVr2yDXbbQOAQL5krvsCV6cJTFjQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jan 2, 2016 at  spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

?> ?
> I won a ton of "money" in Robin Hanson's Ideas Futures with those
> predictions, betting on intervals the math hipsters insisted could not be
> calculated.  After I won thrice, no one would be against me, so I couldn't
> make any more "money" on that concept


?That is interesting. ?I'd like to know how long it will be before a
working quantum computer will actually make a calculation, any calculation,
that no conventional computer or even supercomputer can. My guess would be
sometime between 5 years and an infinite number of years; if I had to pick
a specific number I'd say 15 years because, as everybody knows, 5 plus
infinity divided by 2 is 15.

By the way, quantum computer expert Scott AAronson says things would be
more interesting if it turns out that quantum computers are impossible
because then we'd learn something new, everything we know about quantum
mechanics up to now says quantum computers should be possible.  Of course
if to the surprise of nearly all mathematicians it turns out that P is
equal to NP and if somebody devises an algorithm based on that fact then
you wouldn't need a quantum computer, a conventional computer would do just
as well. But I'd give 50 to one odds that P is not equal to NP.

  John K Clark
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From giulio at gmail.com  Mon Jan  4 10:04:49 2016
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2016 11:04:49 +0100
Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?William_Sims_Bainbridge_on_spaceflight_and_cosmic?=
	=?utf-8?q?_religions_=E2=80=93_Second_Life=2C_January_10?=
Message-ID: <CAKTCJyfLEUwjLp52nBCC8dnx3HbSE6KHfPo5R+9xE5MVRA=e4g@mail.gmail.com>

The next Turing Church meeting in Second Life on Sunday, January 10,
will feature a short talk by William Sims Bainbridge ? the renowned
sociologist and author of seminal papers on space colonization,
virtual worlds, and new cosmic religions ? followed by a Q/A session.

http://turingchurch.com/2016/01/04/william-sims-bainbridge-on-spaceflight-and-cosmic-religions-second-life-january-10/



From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Jan  4 16:12:46 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2016 16:12:46 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Experimental Brain Research
Message-ID: <CAL_armheeA-ZYViCWbEKOBVh9RKeOxj_6C4Wgem4yAeh6Rfx9A@mail.gmail.com>

Humour  :)
<http://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?id=3977>

A quick search indicates that this journal actually exists AND the
claim in the cartoon is true.

I don't feel so bad now.

I wonder if Anders has cited this journal????   :)

BillK


From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Jan  4 16:32:18 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2016 16:32:18 +0000
Subject: [ExI] A guide to Bayes Theorem
Message-ID: <CAL_armihFrbKTcaCcrjKYuDmZ7yV4zE22+X_sp_NGwC_D2cWVA@mail.gmail.com>

John Horgan has written a basic guide to Bayes Theorem.

Bayes? theorem, touted as a powerful method for generating knowledge,
can also be used to promote superstition and pseudoscience.
By John Horgan on January 4, 2016
<http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/bayes-theorem-what-s-the-big-deal/>

Quotes:

Consider the cancer-testing case: Bayes? theorem says your probability
of having cancer if you test positive is the probability of a true
positive test divided by the probability of all positive tests, false
and true. In short, beware of false positives.

Here is my more general statement of that principle: The plausibility
of your belief depends on the degree to which your belief--and only
your belief--explains the evidence for it. The more alternative
explanations there are for the evidence, the less plausible your
belief is. That, to me, is the essence of Bayes? theorem.

?Alternative explanations? can encompass many things. Your evidence
might be erroneous, skewed by a malfunctioning instrument, faulty
analysis, confirmation bias, even fraud. Your evidence might be sound
but explicable by many beliefs, or hypotheses, other than yours.

In other words, there?s nothing magical about Bayes? theorem. It boils
down to the truism that your belief is only as valid as its evidence.
If you have good evidence, Bayes? theorem can yield good results. If
your evidence is flimsy, Bayes? theorem won?t be of much use. Garbage
in, garbage out.
-------


BillK



From danust2012 at gmail.com  Mon Jan  4 17:31:57 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2016 09:31:57 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Experimental Brain Research
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armheeA-ZYViCWbEKOBVh9RKeOxj_6C4Wgem4yAeh6Rfx9A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armheeA-ZYViCWbEKOBVh9RKeOxj_6C4Wgem4yAeh6Rfx9A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <868427CF-AADC-45D9-9C5D-364F9B7EC85F@gmail.com>

On Jan 4, 2016, at 8:12 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> Humour  :)
> <http://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?id=3977>
> 
> A quick search indicates that this journal actually exists AND the
> claim in the cartoon is true.
> 
> I don't feel so bad now.

I'm guessing autocorrect striking again and again. ;)

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From anders at aleph.se  Mon Jan  4 20:03:54 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2016 21:03:54 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Experimental Brain Research
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armheeA-ZYViCWbEKOBVh9RKeOxj_6C4Wgem4yAeh6Rfx9A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armheeA-ZYViCWbEKOBVh9RKeOxj_6C4Wgem4yAeh6Rfx9A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <568AD02A.8010201@aleph.se>

On 2016-01-04 17:12, BillK wrote:
> I wonder if Anders has cited this journal????   :)
Heh. Not deliberately. But since I have written a bunch of papers with 
Brian Earp on Brain-related stuff, I hope it cites me.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Jan  7 20:35:38 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 7 Jan 2016 15:35:38 -0500
Subject: [ExI] 2016 off to a good start
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2j6q9fSfeP-CkSvSecDxrZOnfZtr6sZ56U00FATjN8Mw@mail.gmail.com>

There have been 2 big scientific developments in 2016 and the year is only
7 days old:

1) Scientists were already waxing poetic about CRISPR, 2 weeks ago the
journal Science said the gene editing technique works so well and is so
easy to use it was the breakthrough of the year, not just in biology but in
all of science; but then just yesterday the journal Nature said that a
new modification of CRISPR has been found that makes it even more specific
and dramatically reduces its already low error rate.

http://www.nature.com/news/enzyme-tweak-boosts-precision-of-crispr-genome-edits-1.19114

2) Today Nature reports metallic hydrogen has been produced, or at least
something come very very close to it.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7584/full/nature16164.html

  John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Fri Jan  8 01:51:07 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 7 Jan 2016 17:51:07 -0800
Subject: [ExI] fitbit being sued
Message-ID: <00ec01d149b7$0b51d450$21f57cf0$@att.net>

 

 

 

Short version: 23andMe was giving out results of user surveys based on a
hundred dollar DNA kit.  The FDA declared this use of the information made
the kit itself a medical instrument.  The price for 23andMe was doubled and
the amount of information they offer was cut in half.

 

Now we have Fitbit:

 

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2016/01/07/fitbit-being-sued-for-faulty-heart-
rate-tracking.html?intcmp=hplnws

 

Based on the 23andMe precedent, I predict a Fitbit will be declared a
medical instrument.  Clearly no medical instrument can be sold for 250
bucks.  Those little rubber hammers used to tap your knee just to verify you
are still alive cost more than 250 dollars.  Those little wooden sticks they
use to depress the tongue cost more than 250 dollars.  Each.  This will end
Fitbit.

 

Other predictions?

 

spike

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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Fri Jan  8 17:32:32 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 2016 09:32:32 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Physicist proposes using magnetic fields to produce
	gravitational fields?
Message-ID: <BF66443A-9614-439E-AED4-94F37632BBA9@gmail.com>

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/01/160108083918.htm

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From anders at aleph.se  Sat Jan  9 00:04:19 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 2016 00:04:19 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Physicist proposes using magnetic fields to produce
 gravitational fields?
In-Reply-To: <BF66443A-9614-439E-AED4-94F37632BBA9@gmail.com>
References: <BF66443A-9614-439E-AED4-94F37632BBA9@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56904E83.3020706@aleph.se>

On 2016-01-08 17:32, Dan TheBookMan wrote:
> http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/01/160108083918.htm 
> <http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/01/160108083918.htm?utm_content=bufferd7eb3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer>

The press release is really overselling it. Read the original paper 
instead:
http://arxiv.org/abs/1504.00333

The author shows that the general relativistic effect is enough to be 
detected with an interferometer, but the direct influence of the gravity 
is minuscule.



-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Sat Jan  9 00:09:31 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 2016 16:09:31 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Physicist proposes using magnetic fields to produce
	gravitational fields?
In-Reply-To: <56904E83.3020706@aleph.se>
References: <BF66443A-9614-439E-AED4-94F37632BBA9@gmail.com>
 <56904E83.3020706@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <D792F0D7-CF29-406D-AD77-001A530DACC6@gmail.com>

On Jan 8, 2016, at 4:04 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
>> On 2016-01-08 17:32, Dan TheBookMan wrote:
>> http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/01/160108083918.htm
> 
> The press release is really overselling it. Read the original paper instead: 
> http://arxiv.org/abs/1504.00333
> 
> The author shows that the general relativistic effect is enough to be detected with an interferometer, but the direct influence of the gravity is minuscule. 

I feared as much.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From anders at aleph.se  Sat Jan  9 00:18:09 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 2016 00:18:09 +0000
Subject: [ExI] fitbit being sued
In-Reply-To: <00ec01d149b7$0b51d450$21f57cf0$@att.net>
References: <00ec01d149b7$0b51d450$21f57cf0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <569051C1.3020106@aleph.se>

I think the core problem is that (1) we want some form of quality 
control over healthcare devices, and (2) healthcare is very much still 
run as a medieval guild (overseen by court-appointed wizards).

The problem is of course that (2) is becoming unstable as more and more 
devices can perform health-related things, both because they are 
designed for it, or we find that domains such as nutrition and exercise 
have profound health effects. (1) is also unstable, since the rapid rate 
of technological change makes testing fast enough hard, not to mention 
the huge costs of doing it right. Incentives are hence strong to just 
promote broad claims.


On 2016-01-08 01:51, spike wrote:
>
> Short version: 23andMe was giving out results of user surveys based on 
> a hundred dollar DNA kit. The FDA declared this use of the information 
> made the kit itself a medical instrument.  The price for 23andMe was 
> doubled and the amount of information they offer was cut in half.
>
> Now we have Fitbit:
>
> http://www.foxnews.com/health/2016/01/07/fitbit-being-sued-for-faulty-heart-rate-tracking.html?intcmp=hplnws
>
> Based on the 23andMe precedent, I predict a Fitbit will be declared a 
> medical instrument.  Clearly no medical instrument can be sold for 250 
> bucks.  Those little rubber hammers used to tap your knee just to 
> verify you are still alive cost more than 250 dollars.  Those little 
> wooden sticks they use to depress the tongue cost more than 250 
> dollars.  Each.  This will end Fitbit.
>
> Other predictions?
>
> spike
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From steinberg.will at gmail.com  Sat Jan  9 02:10:29 2016
From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg)
Date: Fri, 8 Jan 2016 21:10:29 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Physicist proposes using magnetic fields to produce
 gravitational fields?
In-Reply-To: <D792F0D7-CF29-406D-AD77-001A530DACC6@gmail.com>
References: <BF66443A-9614-439E-AED4-94F37632BBA9@gmail.com>
 <56904E83.3020706@aleph.se>
 <D792F0D7-CF29-406D-AD77-001A530DACC6@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAKrqSyEsBfcmZ-dKuuTRavqGWcCkE2cZ9N8AO3iFERK=HdVUbQ@mail.gmail.com>

Can it be arbitrarily scaled up, though?  Because even if it would be
practically impossible, that would still be an interesting result.  And
maybe something to hold on to for when we figure out fusion or make Dyson
spheres.  If it can't scale though then it does kinda suck.
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From anders at aleph.se  Sat Jan  9 09:00:19 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 2016 09:00:19 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Physicist proposes using magnetic fields to produce
 gravitational fields?
In-Reply-To: <CAKrqSyEsBfcmZ-dKuuTRavqGWcCkE2cZ9N8AO3iFERK=HdVUbQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <BF66443A-9614-439E-AED4-94F37632BBA9@gmail.com>
 <56904E83.3020706@aleph.se> <D792F0D7-CF29-406D-AD77-001A530DACC6@gmail.com>
 <CAKrqSyEsBfcmZ-dKuuTRavqGWcCkE2cZ9N8AO3iFERK=HdVUbQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5690CC23.2050605@aleph.se>

On 2016-01-09 02:10, Will Steinberg wrote:
>
> Can it be arbitrarily scaled up, though?  Because even if it would be 
> practically impossible, that would still be an interesting result.  
> And maybe something to hold on to for when we figure out fusion or 
> make Dyson spheres.  If it can't scale though then it does kinda suck.
>

Gravity fields tend to suck :-)

But, yes, the effect is small:
> The precision achieved by optical lattice clocks in the measurement of 
> a transition
> frequency is of the order 10^-15 [12]. Achieving such a gravitational 
> redshift with single-layered solenoids would require CI = 10^-15, 
> i.e. for an electric current of
> 1kA, n = 100 it would require a solenoid length of about 10^11 m.
Now, CI scales with the square of the current and widning length. The 
length is already on Dyson lengthscales, but you could of course amp up 
the current by a mere factor of a few million to get order of unity 
gravity effects. GigaAmpere currents doesn't sound that impossible if 
you are using enormous superconductors.

In the end this is likely the wrong way of making gravity. You could use 
the energy to spin stuff up or move masses around. Electrical fields get 
their energy divided by a c^2 factor when calculating their gravity 
effect, so mass is way more effective in making gravity.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From giulio at gmail.com  Sat Jan  9 16:05:42 2016
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 2016 17:05:42 +0100
Subject: [ExI]
	=?utf-8?q?William_Sims_Bainbridge_on_spaceflight_and_cosmic?=
	=?utf-8?q?_religions_=E2=80=93_Second_Life=2C_January_10?=
In-Reply-To: <CAKTCJyfLEUwjLp52nBCC8dnx3HbSE6KHfPo5R+9xE5MVRA=e4g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAKTCJyfLEUwjLp52nBCC8dnx3HbSE6KHfPo5R+9xE5MVRA=e4g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAKTCJydXOmtkppeENEiXSZKuwA-mzX=YhEV9FaGhXAmy4feQiw@mail.gmail.com>

REMINDER - TOMORROW SUNDAY

On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 11:04 AM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
> The next Turing Church meeting in Second Life on Sunday, January 10,
> will feature a short talk by William Sims Bainbridge ? the renowned
> sociologist and author of seminal papers on space colonization,
> virtual worlds, and new cosmic religions ? followed by a Q/A session.
>
> http://turingchurch.com/2016/01/04/william-sims-bainbridge-on-spaceflight-and-cosmic-religions-second-life-january-10/



From spike66 at att.net  Sat Jan  9 17:52:47 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 2016 09:52:47 -0800
Subject: [ExI] log view of universe
Message-ID: <003e01d14b06$8d4f5a90$a7ee0fb0$@att.net>

 

Is this cool or what?

 

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Observable_universe_logarithmic_illu
stration.png#/media/File:Observable_universe_logarithmic_illustration.png

 

We have heard so much about how superclusters form a meta-structure, the
filaments and voids. This is an excellent visual of that, with the foamy or
filamenty structure out there on the periphery.

 

spike

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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Sat Jan  9 18:25:26 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 2016 10:25:26 -0800
Subject: [ExI] log view of universe
In-Reply-To: <003e01d14b06$8d4f5a90$a7ee0fb0$@att.net>
References: <003e01d14b06$8d4f5a90$a7ee0fb0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <0184DAA2-AA0E-4A01-88DB-CA029B4BE58A@gmail.com>

On Jan 9, 2016, at 9:52 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>  
> Is this cool or what?
>  
> https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Observable_universe_logarithmic_illustration.png#/media/File:Observable_universe_logarithmic_illustration.png
>  
> We have heard so much about how superclusters form a meta-structure, the filaments and voids. This is an excellent visual of that, with the foamy or filamenty structure out there on the periphery.

Filaments appear in other depictions too, especially about the supercluster scale, no? Interesting that this disk model preserves them.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Jan  9 20:34:52 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 2016 20:34:52 +0000
Subject: [ExI] log view of universe
In-Reply-To: <0184DAA2-AA0E-4A01-88DB-CA029B4BE58A@gmail.com>
References: <003e01d14b06$8d4f5a90$a7ee0fb0$@att.net>
 <0184DAA2-AA0E-4A01-88DB-CA029B4BE58A@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgKgaE4X7MRGDHQBBqm=jognixYpnnkGX0zb0dEM4VDmg@mail.gmail.com>

On 9 January 2016 at 18:25, Dan TheBookMan  wrote:
> Filaments appear in other depictions too, especially about the supercluster
> scale, no? Interesting that this disk model preserves them.
>


The image was created by an artist/musician by combining logarithmic
maps of the universe from Princeton and images from NASA. (So there is
a bit of interpretation in there). Still impressive though.
He has some other images as well.
Story here:
<http://www.techinsider.io/whole-universe-map-illustration-2015-12>

BillK


From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Jan  9 21:29:41 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 2016 13:29:41 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Physicist proposes using magnetic fields to produce
 gravitational fields?
In-Reply-To: <5690CC23.2050605@aleph.se>
References: <BF66443A-9614-439E-AED4-94F37632BBA9@gmail.com>
 <56904E83.3020706@aleph.se>
 <D792F0D7-CF29-406D-AD77-001A530DACC6@gmail.com>
 <CAKrqSyEsBfcmZ-dKuuTRavqGWcCkE2cZ9N8AO3iFERK=HdVUbQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5690CC23.2050605@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSMwUUt1D7iuEL=RhiHp7JXrTc1_tjH5SA+Lig1tFHecA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jan 9, 2016 at 1:00 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> In the end this is likely the wrong way of making gravity. You could use
> the energy to spin stuff up or move masses around. Electrical fields get
> their energy divided by a c^2 factor when calculating their gravity effect,
> so mass is way more effective in making gravity.
>

Except that you then have to move that mass around.  In a superconductor,
once the energy is invested it stays invested, so you can sustain the
gravity field without having to put more energy in to decelerate or change
course.  (If it was a large enough effect to matter.)
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From tara at taramayastales.com  Sat Jan  9 18:36:11 2016
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 2016 10:36:11 -0800
Subject: [ExI] log view of universe
In-Reply-To: <003e01d14b06$8d4f5a90$a7ee0fb0$@att.net>
References: <003e01d14b06$8d4f5a90$a7ee0fb0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <D73AC17D-77AA-45C2-9715-3A59FE13550A@taramayastales.com>

I know it doesn?t ?really? intend to say that our solar system is at the center of the universe, but I like how?visually?it reverses the Copernican revolution, and places Earth (very nearly) dead center of concentric rings of the cosmos. 

Tara 


> On Jan 9, 2016, at 9:52 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> 
>  
> Is this cool or what?
>  
> https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Observable_universe_logarithmic_illustration.png#/media/File:Observable_universe_logarithmic_illustration.png <https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Observable_universe_logarithmic_illustration.png#/media/File:Observable_universe_logarithmic_illustration.png>
>  
> We have heard so much about how superclusters form a meta-structure, the filaments and voids. This is an excellent visual of that, with the foamy or filamenty structure out there on the periphery.
>  
> spike
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat <http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat>
Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Sun Jan 10 06:53:15 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 2016 22:53:15 -0800
Subject: [ExI] log view of universe
In-Reply-To: <D73AC17D-77AA-45C2-9715-3A59FE13550A@taramayastales.com>
References: <003e01d14b06$8d4f5a90$a7ee0fb0$@att.net>
 <D73AC17D-77AA-45C2-9715-3A59FE13550A@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <A55CBE26-21A9-4654-9E03-1959C782C4EB@gmail.com>

On Jan 9, 2016, at 10:36 AM, Tara Maya <tara at taramayastales.com> wrote:
> 
> I know it doesn?t ?really? intend to say that our solar system is at the center of the universe, but I like how?visually?it reverses the Copernican revolution, and places Earth (very nearly) dead center of concentric rings of the cosmos. 

Of course, one could use any point as the center here. But you bring up an interesting and troubling point about it. ;)

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Sun Jan 10 06:55:53 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 2016 22:55:53 -0800
Subject: [ExI] log view of universe
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgKgaE4X7MRGDHQBBqm=jognixYpnnkGX0zb0dEM4VDmg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <003e01d14b06$8d4f5a90$a7ee0fb0$@att.net>
 <0184DAA2-AA0E-4A01-88DB-CA029B4BE58A@gmail.com>
 <CAL_armgKgaE4X7MRGDHQBBqm=jognixYpnnkGX0zb0dEM4VDmg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <8B387DBE-656F-4420-9343-E505BE6211A9@gmail.com>

On Jan 9, 2016, at 12:34 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
>> On 9 January 2016 at 18:25, Dan TheBookMan  wrote:
>> Filaments appear in other depictions too, especially about the supercluster
>> scale, no? Interesting that this disk model preserves them.
> 
> 
> The image was created by an artist/musician by combining logarithmic
> maps of the universe from Princeton and images from NASA. (So there is
> a bit of interpretation in there). Still impressive though.
> He has some other images as well.
> Story here:
> <http://www.techinsider.io/whole-universe-map-illustration-2015-12>

Thanks for the link. There's a bit more interpretation too because, correct me if I'm wrong, only a small fraction of the sky has been surveyed to far off distances. Doesn't mean one can make presumptions, but I wonder if the model will radically change as more data comes in.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst

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From spike66 at att.net  Sun Jan 10 07:05:10 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 9 Jan 2016 23:05:10 -0800
Subject: [ExI] log view of universe
In-Reply-To: <D73AC17D-77AA-45C2-9715-3A59FE13550A@taramayastales.com>
References: <003e01d14b06$8d4f5a90$a7ee0fb0$@att.net>
 <D73AC17D-77AA-45C2-9715-3A59FE13550A@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <002301d14b75$3f9b8a70$bed29f50$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Tara Maya
Sent: Saturday, January 09, 2016 10:36 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] log view of universe

 

I know it doesn?t ?really? intend to say that our solar system is at the center of the universe? Tara

 

 

Tara, I don?t see why not.  The inflationary universe model means that there is no particular place which is less at the center of the universe than any other place.  It is tempting to imagine if we could go fast enough we could get out to where half the sky is empty and the other half has all the stars and things, but that really is not how it works.  

 

No matter where we are or where we go in the universe, we see stars and galaxies and things in all directions.  So why not say that our solar system is the center of it all?  And why not go ahead and say it is the earth?  Keep following that line of reasoning until you, Tara Maya, are the CENTER of the entire visible universe.

 

It is mathematically perfectly valid to go there, and once you do, it becomes yet another hint that all of us (except you) are really software avatars, that it is all a vast sim, and that you are Truman in a vast cosmic software Truman Show kinda way.  The whole thing was set up so that the meta-Cristofs can marvel as you gradually become aware, as they enjoy your astonishment at the awesome realization of where you are and what you are.

 

Pretty cool ja?  {8-]  

 

spike

 

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From anders at aleph.se  Sun Jan 10 11:04:53 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 10 Jan 2016 11:04:53 +0000
Subject: [ExI] log view of universe
In-Reply-To: <003e01d14b06$8d4f5a90$a7ee0fb0$@att.net>
References: <003e01d14b06$8d4f5a90$a7ee0fb0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <56923AD5.8030403@aleph.se>

It is based on a very nice paper and original map by Gott, Tegmark et al:
http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0310571
http://www.astro.princeton.edu/universe/

That paper inspired me to make my Mercator Mandelbrot fractals, since it 
made me realize one could take an arbitrary point and make a strip-like 
map showing arbitrary zooms towards it without distorting angles:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/87547772 at N00/sets/72157615740829949/



On 2016-01-09 17:52, spike wrote:
>
> Is this cool or what?
>
> https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Observable_universe_logarithmic_illustration.png#/media/File:Observable_universe_logarithmic_illustration.png
>
> We have heard so much about how superclusters form a meta-structure, 
> the filaments and voids. This is an excellent visual of that, with the 
> foamy or filamenty structure out there on the periphery.
>
> spike
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Sun Jan 10 19:24:29 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Sun, 10 Jan 2016 11:24:29 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com>
References: <mailman.97.1449971479.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>

On Dec 13, 2015, at 1:51 AM, Ben <bbenzai at yahoo.com> wrote:
> William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> "I have looked into it a bit and there is no good suffix for 'hate'.  And we do need one.
> 
> We are using 'xenophobia' to mean not just fear but hate and that is just wrong.  We can even love what we fear.
> 
> So, group, I don't know of any other people who are better placed to create a new suffix and thus word for hate of the new/strange/different.
> 
> It must, I think, start with xeno-.  Latin offers 'peregrinus' for alien.
> Maybe not workable.
> 
> Ideas?"
> 
> I would suggest -odia. From Odium.
> 
> It works for some words (Islamodia) but not really for others (Xenodia, Xeno-odia?)
> 
> Although it might not be grammatically sound to use it like that, I'm not learned enough to know.

Nice try, but I think in common speech '-odia' will too easily fail to be distinguished from '-phobia,' especially from inattentive listeners or when there's garbling, noise, etc. it's just too close in sound.

The straying of meaning of words and word fragments is nothing new. I'm not losing any sleep over how 'phobia' seems to have an altered meaning in the context of 'xenophobia' and the like. I don't believe there's a big need for a neologism here -- save for folks too obsessed with this stuff. ;)

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From jasonresch at gmail.com  Mon Jan 11 01:19:44 2016
From: jasonresch at gmail.com (Jason Resch)
Date: Sun, 10 Jan 2016 19:19:44 -0600
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>
References: <mailman.97.1449971479.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com>
 <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CA+BCJUhpQ4sF9zB-k8nyJLV7bN7S5vukHbfOj7Mxmb1Ej_2JYA@mail.gmail.com>

My friend suggested the word "misoxeny".

http://www.encyclo.co.uk/meaning-of-misoxeny "the hatred of strangers"

Jason

On Sun, Jan 10, 2016 at 1:24 PM, Dan TheBookMan <danust2012 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> On Dec 13, 2015, at 1:51 AM, Ben <bbenzai at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> "I have looked into it a bit and there is no good suffix for 'hate'.  And
> we do need one.
>
> We are using 'xenophobia' to mean not just fear but hate and that is just
> wrong.  We can even love what we fear.
>
> So, group, I don't know of any other people who are better placed to
> create a new suffix and thus word for hate of the new/strange/different.
>
> It must, I think, start with xeno-.  Latin offers 'peregrinus' for alien.
> Maybe not workable.
>
> Ideas?"
>
> I would suggest -odia. From Odium.
>
> It works for some words (Islamodia) but not really for others (Xenodia,
> Xeno-odia?)
>
> Although it might not be grammatically sound to use it like that, I'm not
> learned enough to know.
>
>
> Nice try, but I think in common speech '-odia' will too easily fail to be
> distinguished from '-phobia,' especially from inattentive listeners or when
> there's garbling, noise, etc. it's just too close in sound.
>
> The straying of meaning of words and word fragments is nothing new. I'm
> not losing any sleep over how 'phobia' seems to have an altered meaning in
> the context of 'xenophobia' and the like. I don't believe there's a big
> need for a neologism here -- save for folks too obsessed with this stuff. ;)
>
> Regards,
>
> Dan
>   Sample my Kindle books via:
> http://author.to/DanUst
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Jan 11 01:35:45 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 10 Jan 2016 19:35:45 -0600
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CA+BCJUhpQ4sF9zB-k8nyJLV7bN7S5vukHbfOj7Mxmb1Ej_2JYA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.97.1449971479.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com> <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>
 <CA+BCJUhpQ4sF9zB-k8nyJLV7bN7S5vukHbfOj7Mxmb1Ej_2JYA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaHctXQJrVUCPBbiTF3+EOG42YaD4MycDyz9_az2D6yUQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Jan 10, 2016 at 7:19 PM, Jason Resch <jasonresch at gmail.com> wrote:

> My friend suggested the word "misoxeny".
>
> http://www.encyclo.co.uk/meaning-of-misoxeny "the hatred of strangers"
>

?I have no problem with any of the suggestions.  Looked up misoxeny in my
OED - fascinating!  All kinds of nonce words with miso- as the prefix.
Just make up your own hate word, like misomiso, if you hate miso.  But then
an ambiguity creeps in when you need a word for hating hate.

  Problem is:  how do we make any neologism popular?  bill w?


>
> Jason
>
> -.  Latin offers 'peregrinus' for alien.
>
>> Maybe not workable.
>>
>> Ideas?"
>>
>> I would suggest -odia. From Odium.
>>
>> It works for some words (Islamodia) but not really for others (Xenodia,
>> Xeno-odia?)
>>
>> Although it might not be grammatically sound to use it like that, I'm not
>> learned enough to know.
>>
>>
>> Nice try, but I think in common speech '-odia' will too easily fail to be
>> distinguished from '-phobia,' especially from inattentive listeners or when
>> there's garbling, noise, etc. it's just too close in sound.
>>
>> The straying of meaning of words and word fragments is nothing new. I'm
>> not losing any sleep over how 'phobia' seems to have an altered meaning in
>> the context of 'xenophobia' and the like. I don't believe there's a big
>> need for a neologism here -- save for folks too obsessed with this stuff. ;)
>>
>> Regards,
>>
>> Dan
>>   Sample my Kindle books via:
>> http://author.to/DanUst
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From tara at taramayastales.com  Mon Jan 11 01:50:47 2016
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Sun, 10 Jan 2016 17:50:47 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaHctXQJrVUCPBbiTF3+EOG42YaD4MycDyz9_az2D6yUQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.97.1449971479.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com> <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>
 <CA+BCJUhpQ4sF9zB-k8nyJLV7bN7S5vukHbfOj7Mxmb1Ej_2JYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaHctXQJrVUCPBbiTF3+EOG42YaD4MycDyz9_az2D6yUQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <45EB0A2F-33B4-43CF-9F89-38F5AF538701@taramayastales.com>

Misodia (hating hate) sounds rather melodic. But how about Misanthropovaodia?  ?Haters Gonna Hate!? 


> On Jan 10, 2016, at 5:35 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> 
> 
> On Sun, Jan 10, 2016 at 7:19 PM, Jason Resch <jasonresch at gmail.com <mailto:jasonresch at gmail.com>> wrote:
> My friend suggested the word "misoxeny".
> 
> http://www.encyclo.co.uk/meaning-of-misoxeny <http://www.encyclo.co.uk/meaning-of-misoxeny> "the hatred of strangers"
> 
> ?I have no problem with any of the suggestions.  Looked up misoxeny in my OED - fascinating!  All kinds of nonce words with miso- as the prefix.  Just make up your own hate word, like misomiso, if you hate miso.  But then an ambiguity creeps in when you need a word for hating hate.  
> 
>   Problem is:  how do we make any neologism popular?  bill w? 
> 
> Jason
> 
> -.  Latin offers 'peregrinus' for alien.
>> Maybe not workable.
>> 
>> Ideas?"
>> 
>> I would suggest -odia. From Odium.
>> 
>> It works for some words (Islamodia) but not really for others (Xenodia, Xeno-odia?)
>> 
>> Although it might not be grammatically sound to use it like that, I'm not learned enough to know.
> 
> Nice try, but I think in common speech '-odia' will too easily fail to be distinguished from '-phobia,' especially from inattentive listeners or when there's garbling, noise, etc. it's just too close in sound.
> 
> The straying of meaning of words and word fragments is nothing new. I'm not losing any sleep over how 'phobia' seems to have an altered meaning in the context of 'xenophobia' and the like. I don't believe there's a big need for a neologism here -- save for folks too obsessed with this stuff. ;)
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Dan
>   Sample my Kindle books via:
> http://author.to/DanUst <http://author.to/DanUst>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat <http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat>
> 
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat <http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat>
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



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From anders at aleph.se  Mon Jan 11 11:13:59 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 2016 11:13:59 +0000
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaHctXQJrVUCPBbiTF3+EOG42YaD4MycDyz9_az2D6yUQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.97.1449971479.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com> <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>
 <CA+BCJUhpQ4sF9zB-k8nyJLV7bN7S5vukHbfOj7Mxmb1Ej_2JYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaHctXQJrVUCPBbiTF3+EOG42YaD4MycDyz9_az2D6yUQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56938E77.6090303@aleph.se>

On 2016-01-11 01:35, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
>
> Problem is:  how do we make any neologism popular?

http://www.aleph.se/Trans/Cultural/Memetics/memecycle.html

Basically, it needs to be memorable, have some bait (like being cool, 
fun, apposite), and easy to use. Specialized neologisms spread through 
writing more than everyday ones.

Most neologisms fail.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From giulio at gmail.com  Mon Jan 11 15:17:23 2016
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 2016 16:17:23 +0100
Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?VIDEO_=E2=80=93_William_Sims_Bainbridge_on_spacef?=
	=?utf-8?q?light_and_cosmic_religions_=E2=80=93_Second_Life=2C_Janu?=
	=?utf-8?q?ary_10?=
Message-ID: <CAKTCJyd27p17fKoA0MzbZAg8swK_tAS4X3tayLPtiepxjEddfg@mail.gmail.com>

VIDEO ? William Sims Bainbridge on spaceflight and cosmic religions ?
Second Life, January 10
William Sims Bainbridge ? the renowned sociologist and author of
seminal papers on space colonization, virtual worlds, and new cosmic
religions ? gave a talk at the Turing Church meeting in Second Life on
Sunday, January 10, 2016, followed by a Q/A session. I recorded a
video via Facebook live streaming...

http://turingchurch.com/2016/01/11/video-william-sims-bainbridge-on-spaceflight-and-cosmic-religions-second-life-january-10/



From sjv2006 at gmail.com  Mon Jan 11 22:54:52 2016
From: sjv2006 at gmail.com (Stephen Van Sickle)
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 2016 14:54:52 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <56938E77.6090303@aleph.se>
References: <mailman.97.1449971479.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com>
 <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>
 <CA+BCJUhpQ4sF9zB-k8nyJLV7bN7S5vukHbfOj7Mxmb1Ej_2JYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaHctXQJrVUCPBbiTF3+EOG42YaD4MycDyz9_az2D6yUQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56938E77.6090303@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CADYziYAoLLw=AJWEUy+k7=gLLXTDhMSO36iT=uQ2vnS_ZcWD+A@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Jan 11, 2016 at 3:13 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

Most neologisms fail.
>

Also known as a *defeconeologism*, which sadly is itself a defeconeologism.

-s
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From tara at taramayastales.com  Mon Jan 11 23:01:35 2016
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 2016 15:01:35 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CADYziYAoLLw=AJWEUy+k7=gLLXTDhMSO36iT=uQ2vnS_ZcWD+A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.97.1449971479.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com> <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>
 <CA+BCJUhpQ4sF9zB-k8nyJLV7bN7S5vukHbfOj7Mxmb1Ej_2JYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaHctXQJrVUCPBbiTF3+EOG42YaD4MycDyz9_az2D6yUQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56938E77.6090303@aleph.se>
 <CADYziYAoLLw=AJWEUy+k7=gLLXTDhMSO36iT=uQ2vnS_ZcWD+A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <AC832D19-53D4-4EBC-9C8F-0B3BB5745DED@taramayastales.com>

?Gotta? and ?Gonna?, however, are well on their way to being legitimate grammatical forms. I just finished The Evolution of Language which describes old forms die and new ones are formed. Fascinating!

Tara



> On Jan 11, 2016, at 2:54 PM, Stephen Van Sickle <sjv2006 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> 
> 
> On Mon, Jan 11, 2016 at 3:13 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se <mailto:anders at aleph.se>> wrote:
> 
> Most neologisms fail. 
> 
> Also known as a defeconeologism, which sadly is itself a defeconeologism.
> 
> -s
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Mon Jan 11 23:26:51 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 2016 15:26:51 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <AC832D19-53D4-4EBC-9C8F-0B3BB5745DED@taramayastales.com>
References: <mailman.97.1449971479.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com> <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>
 <CA+BCJUhpQ4sF9zB-k8nyJLV7bN7S5vukHbfOj7Mxmb1Ej_2JYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaHctXQJrVUCPBbiTF3+EOG42YaD4MycDyz9_az2D6yUQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56938E77.6090303@aleph.se>
 <CADYziYAoLLw=AJWEUy+k7=gLLXTDhMSO36iT=uQ2vnS_ZcWD+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <AC832D19-53D4-4EBC-9C8F-0B3BB5745DED@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <1995E0AC-9F5B-4097-A134-FE82F6B8799B@gmail.com>

On Jan 11, 2016, at 3:01 PM, Tara Maya <tara at taramayastales.com> wrote:
> 
> ?Gotta? and ?Gonna?, however, are well on their way to being legitimate grammatical forms. I just finished The Evolution of Language which describes old forms die and new ones are formed. Fascinating!
> 
> Tara

Don't you think they If you listen to speech, "gotta" and "gonna" seem to have been standard in most English dialects for a long time now? It's more that the written standard is more open now. Not to say the written standard was formerly static. And what's written rarely is consistent with what's spoken -- both in spelling (matching pronunciation) and syntax. 

Don't believe I've read that book.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 00:07:43 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 2016 16:07:43 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNSCNa=cjNQyd3DfOomyAh63+crbjbTWK6p5bQv_0TCnYw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.97.1449971479.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com>
 <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>
 <CA+BCJUhpQ4sF9zB-k8nyJLV7bN7S5vukHbfOj7Mxmb1Ej_2JYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaHctXQJrVUCPBbiTF3+EOG42YaD4MycDyz9_az2D6yUQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56938E77.6090303@aleph.se>
 <CALAdGNSCNa=cjNQyd3DfOomyAh63+crbjbTWK6p5bQv_0TCnYw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNS=XMFoh6KNembaYsRWzc0-SwNhQH+hLcnfJtxu5oXnBw@mail.gmail.com>

On Jan 11, 2016 3:15 AM, "Anders Sandberg" <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> On 2016-01-11 01:35, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
>>   Problem is:  how do we make any neologism popular?
>
> http://www.aleph.se/Trans/Cultural/Memetics/memecycle.html
>
> Basically, it needs to be memorable, have some bait (like being cool,
fun, apposite), and easy to use. Specialized neologisms spread through
writing more than everyday ones.

I wonder how much of effective science communication is distilling concepts
into short, easy to understand, and hard to misinterpret summaries.
(Intent: let those who read or hear your words repeat them to people beyond
your immediate audience.  This both gets a bigger audience, and more firmly
establishes it in your primary audience's minds.)  In short: making science
into memes.

And if this is why explaining things in several paragraph long emails
usually fails, unless you already have the audience's interest (such as an
article or thesis that someone sought out for a more detailed look at
something they were already interested in).

In that context, I wonder if it might be useful to teach, to those who will
be doing science communication, the art of accurately overviewing a topic
in a single PowerPoint slide.
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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Jan 12 00:38:37 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 2016 16:38:37 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <AC832D19-53D4-4EBC-9C8F-0B3BB5745DED@taramayastales.com>
References: <mailman.97.1449971479.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com> <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>
 <CA+BCJUhpQ4sF9zB-k8nyJLV7bN7S5vukHbfOj7Mxmb1Ej_2JYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaHctXQJrVUCPBbiTF3+EOG42YaD4MycDyz9_az2D6yUQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56938E77.6090303@aleph.se>
 <CADYziYAoLLw=AJWEUy+k7=gLLXTDhMSO36iT=uQ2vnS_ZcWD+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <AC832D19-53D4-4EBC-9C8F-0B3BB5745DED@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <008201d14cd1$94245560$bc6d0020$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Tara Maya
Sent: Monday, January 11, 2016 3:02 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] need a new word/suffix

 

?Gotta? and ?Gonna?, however, are well on their way to being legitimate grammatical forms. I just finished The Evolution of Language which describes old forms die and new ones are formed. Fascinating!

 

Tara

 

 

I don?t see why not.  I am the captain of the grammar gestapo, but I have been using those terms for a long time in email.

 

spike

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From tara at taramayastales.com  Tue Jan 12 01:28:15 2016
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 2016 17:28:15 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <1995E0AC-9F5B-4097-A134-FE82F6B8799B@gmail.com>
References: <mailman.97.1449971479.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com> <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>
 <CA+BCJUhpQ4sF9zB-k8nyJLV7bN7S5vukHbfOj7Mxmb1Ej_2JYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaHctXQJrVUCPBbiTF3+EOG42YaD4MycDyz9_az2D6yUQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56938E77.6090303@aleph.se>
 <CADYziYAoLLw=AJWEUy+k7=gLLXTDhMSO36iT=uQ2vnS_ZcWD+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <AC832D19-53D4-4EBC-9C8F-0B3BB5745DED@taramayastales.com>
 <1995E0AC-9F5B-4097-A134-FE82F6B8799B@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <BBC2A4EC-2F7F-4A57-9BA4-A690FC73B418@taramayastales.com>

Well, that?s part of the book?s argument, which is that the process of language change is slow, and many variations (mutations, if you will) co-exist, often over centuries. The process of one form outperforming another to eventually become the dominant variation is slow. To the extent that people perceive the changing tide, it?s usually to complain about the slovenly speech patterns of the young. 

Writing masks the changes in speech, because the written form changes even more slowly. 

Tara

> On Jan 11, 2016, at 3:26 PM, Dan TheBookMan <danust2012 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> On Jan 11, 2016, at 3:01 PM, Tara Maya <tara at taramayastales.com <mailto:tara at taramayastales.com>> wrote:
> 
>> ?Gotta? and ?Gonna?, however, are well on their way to being legitimate grammatical forms. I just finished The Evolution of Language which describes old forms die and new ones are formed. Fascinating!
>> 
>> Tara
> 
> Don't you think they If you listen to speech, "gotta" and "gonna" seem to have been standard in most English dialects for a long time now? It's more that the written standard is more open now. Not to say the written standard was formerly static. And what's written rarely is consistent with what's spoken -- both in spelling (matching pronunciation) and syntax. 
> 
> Don't believe I've read that book.
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Dan
>   Sample my Kindle books via:
> http://author.to/DanUst <http://author.to/DanUst>_______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 05:43:46 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 2016 21:43:46 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <BBC2A4EC-2F7F-4A57-9BA4-A690FC73B418@taramayastales.com>
References: <mailman.97.1449971479.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com>
 <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>
 <CA+BCJUhpQ4sF9zB-k8nyJLV7bN7S5vukHbfOj7Mxmb1Ej_2JYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaHctXQJrVUCPBbiTF3+EOG42YaD4MycDyz9_az2D6yUQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56938E77.6090303@aleph.se>
 <CADYziYAoLLw=AJWEUy+k7=gLLXTDhMSO36iT=uQ2vnS_ZcWD+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <AC832D19-53D4-4EBC-9C8F-0B3BB5745DED@taramayastales.com>
 <1995E0AC-9F5B-4097-A134-FE82F6B8799B@gmail.com>
 <BBC2A4EC-2F7F-4A57-9BA4-A690FC73B418@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <CACB7g26z0tXXoqot3Sb+nO2p9+-mJ0A1e5mJAbG7jh0cwpzU3w@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Jan 11, 2016 at 5:28 PM, Tara Maya <tara at taramayastales.com> wrote:

>
> Well, that?s part of the book?s argument, which is that the process of
> language change is slow, and many variations (mutations, if you will)
> co-exist, often over centuries. The process of one form outperforming
> another to eventually become the dominant variation is slow. To the extent
> that people perceive the changing tide, it?s usually to complain about the
> slovenly speech patterns of the young.
>
> Writing masks the changes in speech, because the written form changes even
> *more* slowly.
>
> Tara
>

I think much of this already in other books on language change, though I'm
not knocking this one.

Also, vocabulary seems to change rapidly, though things like grammar tend
to be more conservative. And, yes, writing tends to be more conservative
than spoken language, though my guess is in recent years that's been
changing both because writing often aspires to speech (though I'm not
saying it should; just a changing taste and perhaps a cyclically changing
one*) and because so many more people are usually various means of writing
-- texting, email, blogging, Twitter, memes -- and the gatekeepers don't
have as much power as before -- no one is going to chide me, I trust, if
I'm a wee loose with my diction, grammar, spelling here.

By the way, a recurring complaint is that things are decaying. I even had
someone on Twitter chide me about the "King's English." (Which King? Since
my interlocutor was a Young Earth Creationist -- and fairly shallow and
ignorant -- I'm guessing King James.) It seemed his view was that English
had gone into decline since the 1600s. And, to be sure, there were folks
complaining back then about this. But to read the complaints one would've
expected English-speakers would by now have been reduced to grunting and
screeching at each other. This maps on to similar pessimistic biases I
believe -- the whole notion things are getting worse and worse, usually
since the complainers youth or some ideal time when everything was perfect
before the rot took hold. (For the aforementioned interlocutor, I get the
feeling that ideal time was the mythical Garden of Eden. He also believed
all languages were ultimately derived from Hebrew -- of course! -- and was
unaware of Hindu or Mesopotamian texts predating the Old Testament/Hebrew
Bible.)

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/

* Think of how every so often in literature -- e.g., serious fiction,
serious nonfiction, and poetry -- the trend goes from a more classical
style to getting closer to how people speak in everyday life and then back
again.
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 05:45:12 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Mon, 11 Jan 2016 21:45:12 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <008201d14cd1$94245560$bc6d0020$@att.net>
References: <mailman.97.1449971479.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com>
 <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>
 <CA+BCJUhpQ4sF9zB-k8nyJLV7bN7S5vukHbfOj7Mxmb1Ej_2JYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaHctXQJrVUCPBbiTF3+EOG42YaD4MycDyz9_az2D6yUQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56938E77.6090303@aleph.se>
 <CADYziYAoLLw=AJWEUy+k7=gLLXTDhMSO36iT=uQ2vnS_ZcWD+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <AC832D19-53D4-4EBC-9C8F-0B3BB5745DED@taramayastales.com>
 <008201d14cd1$94245560$bc6d0020$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CACB7g27F85jFinnWBwNcpdZNFv+VO5qyYD7uxYQgpf1wD7TqwA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Jan 11, 2016 at 4:38 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *Tara Maya
> *Sent:* Monday, January 11, 2016 3:02 PM
> *To:* ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
>
>
>
> ?Gotta? and ?Gonna?, however, are well on their way to being legitimate
> grammatical forms. I just finished The Evolution of Language which
> describes old forms die and new ones are formed. Fascinating!
>
>
>
> Tara
>
>
>
>
>
> I don?t see why not.  I am the captain of the grammar gestapo, but I have
> been using those terms for a long time in email.
>

Such naked hypocrisy! :)

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/
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From listsb at infinitefaculty.org  Tue Jan 12 08:49:50 2016
From: listsb at infinitefaculty.org (Brian Manning Delaney)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 09:49:50 +0100
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org>

El 2015-12-12 a las 22:35, William Flynn Wallace escribi?:
> I have looked into it a bit and there is no good suffix for 'hate'.  And
> we do need one.

Agreed.

The problem is that one would run into an overwhelming PC Police 
response in any attempt to create new words that separate hatred from 
fear, since the prevailing view is that all fear of Others is, at 
bottom, hatred (also, and originally of course, though less relevant 
these days: all hatred is fear -- indeed, a pathological fear).

A parallel problem: trying to distinguish between "anti-immigration" and 
"anti?illegal immigration".

- Brian



From danust2012 at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 09:49:35 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 01:49:35 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org>
Message-ID: <D49F1B46-2D5D-4791-8919-06DF95876F86@gmail.com>

On Jan 12, 2016, at 12:49 AM, Brian Manning Delaney <listsb at infinitefaculty.org> wrote:
>> El 2015-12-12 a las 22:35, William Flynn Wallace escribi?:
>> I have looked into it a bit and there is no good suffix for 'hate'.  And
>> we do need one.
> 
> Agreed.
> 
> The problem is that one would run into an overwhelming PC Police response in any attempt to create new words that separate hatred from fear, since the prevailing view is that all fear of Others is, at bottom, hatred (also, and originally of course, though less relevant these days: all hatred is fear -- indeed, a pathological fear).

Are you sure that's the origin of the -phobia suffix use here?

> A parallel problem: trying to distinguish between "anti-immigration" and "anti?illegal immigration".

While one can make such a distinction, it seems arbitrary from my view.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From anders at aleph.se  Tue Jan 12 10:44:51 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 10:44:51 +0000
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org>
Message-ID: <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>

On 2016-01-12 08:49, Brian Manning Delaney wrote:
>
> The problem is that one would run into an overwhelming PC Police 
> response in any attempt to create new words that separate hatred from 
> fear, since the prevailing view is that all fear of Others is, at 
> bottom, hatred (also, and originally of course, though less relevant 
> these days: all hatred is fear -- indeed, a pathological fear).

Haha! If you actually did get that response you would be set. There is 
nothing like having people explicitly condemn a neologism to make it 
spread.

Case in point: the new pronoun "hen" in Swedish. Constructed to mean 
"he/she", introduced in a children's book. The combination of gender 
equality, children, and language made it the great topic of arguments 
back in 2011 - political correctness gone mad! Most people groaned about 
it... and now it is used unironically by most, including media.

http://blog.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk/2012/04/linguistic-social-engineering/

The thing is, controversy is just a way of exposing a new word to a lot 
of people. If it has the right properties it will spread. At most 
opponents can try to give the word associations that are off-putting.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From listsb at infinitefaculty.org  Tue Jan 12 11:01:20 2016
From: listsb at infinitefaculty.org (Brian Manning Delaney)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 12:01:20 +0100
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org>

El 2016-01-12 a las 11:44, Anders Sandberg escribi?:

> There is
> nothing like having people explicitly condemn a neologism to make it
> spread.
>
> Case in point: the new pronoun "hen" in Swedish. Constructed to mean
> "he/she", introduced in a children's book. The combination of gender
> equality, children, and language made it the great topic of arguments
> back in 2011 - political correctness gone mad! Most people groaned about
> it... and now it is used unironically by most, including media.

I live in Stockholm, so I'm familiar with "hen". I actually haven't seen 
it much at all, but I hang out with culturally conservative types, mostly.

Googling [ hen site:dn.se ], for ex., comes up with hits that mostly are 
about the use of and controversy surrounding "hen", not it's unironic use.

But I agree that controversy makes for the potential for something to 
spread like wildfire! If Americans had chosen, say "ho", instead of 
"co", as a gender neutral pronoun, they would have been much more 
successful....

In the case of Sweden, we have a small enough country (with a sheep-like 
enough population -- compared, at least, to the US), that "hen" could be 
normalized via a state- or institution-mediated intervention, like the 
elimination of the formal "Ni" (or the switch to right-side driving).


El 2016-01-12 a las 10:49, Dan TheBookMan escribi?:
> > A parallel problem: trying to distinguish between "anti-immigration" and "anti?illegal immigration".

> While one can make such a distinction, it seems arbitrary from my view.

Not sure I understand. Do you believe there's no non-arbitrary diff. 
between immigration in general and illegal immigration?

- Brian



From anders at aleph.se  Tue Jan 12 12:15:41 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 12:15:41 +0000
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org>
Message-ID: <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>

On 2016-01-12 11:01, Brian Manning Delaney wrote:
> In the case of Sweden, we have a small enough country (with a 
> sheep-like enough population -- compared, at least, to the US), that 
> "hen" could be normalized via a state- or institution-mediated 
> intervention, like the elimination of the formal "Ni" (or the switch 
> to right-side driving). 

Actually, the transition from Ni to du is an interesting case of a 
bottom-up transition. Slate has a nice outside overview:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/lexicon_valley/2016/01/04/why_swedes_didn_t_address_each_other_by_you_before_the_du_reform_of_1967.html
The thing is, it occured because a rising egalitarian attitude made it 
feasible, and eventually a few high-profile persons triggered it by 
their own independent actions. If not for Bror Rexhed it would have been 
somebody else. There was never any deliberate top-down plan.

Meanwhile switching from left to right-side driving was definitey a 
top-down plan needing much coordination.

Most top-down attempts at modifying language have been problematic.

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 12:36:31 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 12:36:31 +0000
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhc6GsQHyeez7feTupx+MFVAHur+LvSdpcwMB8bD5VGzg@mail.gmail.com>

On 12 January 2016 at 11:01, Brian Manning Delaney  wrote:
<snip>
> But I agree that controversy makes for the potential for something to spread
> like wildfire! If Americans had chosen, say "ho", instead of "co", as a
> gender neutral pronoun, they would have been much more successful....
>

I have never encountered "co" used as a pronoun and had to search
about it. It seems to be only used in a few specific Gender Neutral
communities. So it does seem to be unsuccessful. Especially as it is
already used in other senses, like copilot, or co-conspirator.

Americans could not use "ho" as that is already in popular slang use,
meaning woman or prostitute.

BillK


From listsb at infinitefaculty.org  Tue Jan 12 13:10:56 2016
From: listsb at infinitefaculty.org (Brian Manning Delaney)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 14:10:56 +0100
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>


Ah, Anders, thanks! I was misinformed about "Ni".

El 2016-01-12 a las 13:15, Anders Sandberg escribi?:
> Most top-down attempts at modifying language have been problematic.

Well, they've worked in Germany and Spain, with amazing rapidity. I've 
had leftist anti-establishment young Germans point out "the mistake" in 
my emails of using "da?" instead of "dass".

El 2016-01-12 a las 13:36, BillK escribi?:
> On 12 January 2016 at 11:01, Brian Manning Delaney wrote:

>> But I agree that controversy makes for the potential for something to spread like wildfire! If Americans had chosen, say "ho", instead of "co", as a gender neutral pronoun, they would have been much more successful....

> Americans could not use "ho" as that is already in popular slang use, meaning woman or prostitute.

That's what I was getting at with "controversial"... (and ergo possibly 
successful -- that it's already in use would potentially be an advantage).

- Brian



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 15:29:12 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 10:29:12 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3caARY1z+CNkOex3qt8Ct1F9myLW2rEvP9=yePPJCa4g@mail.gmail.com>

Oil is now selling at $31.41 a barrel, the lowest it's been in 12 years,
and Goldman Sachs  and Morgan Stanley both predict $20 oil in the near
future but you need to take that with a grain of salt. Goldman Sachs
predicted $200 oil in 2008 so they're not very good at forecasting the
future.

John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Jan 12 15:36:36 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 07:36:36 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CACB7g26z0tXXoqot3Sb+nO2p9+-mJ0A1e5mJAbG7jh0cwpzU3w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.97.1449971479.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <566D3FBB.7080304@yahoo.com> <86FA4BD5-24F6-47F7-BB9B-C99A4D9E76A8@gmail.com>
 <CA+BCJUhpQ4sF9zB-k8nyJLV7bN7S5vukHbfOj7Mxmb1Ej_2JYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaHctXQJrVUCPBbiTF3+EOG42YaD4MycDyz9_az2D6yUQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56938E77.6090303@aleph.se>
 <CADYziYAoLLw=AJWEUy+k7=gLLXTDhMSO36iT=uQ2vnS_ZcWD+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <AC832D19-53D4-4EBC-9C8F-0B3BB5745DED@taramayastales.com>
 <1995E0AC-9F5B-4097-A134-FE82F6B8799B@gmail.com>
 <BBC2A4EC-2F7F-4A57-9BA4-A690FC73B418@taramayastales.com>
 <CACB7g26z0tXXoqot3Sb+nO2p9+-mJ0A1e5mJAbG7jh0cwpzU3w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00a101d14d4f$06411a20$12c34e60$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan



>?By the way, a recurring complaint is that things are decaying. I even had someone on Twitter chide me about the "King's English." (Which King? Since my interlocutor was a Young Earth Creationist -- and fairly shallow and ignorant -- I'm guessing King James.) ?Dan

 

Elvis Presley.  He is the closest to an American king, even if his realm is RocknRoll.  We already have a talk like a pirate day, so why not talk like Elvis?

 

Twenty years ago I would have given a different answer to why language needs to be standardized: to make more manageable the code needed to allow computers to read our books.  But OK Google convinced me that code can be written to understand the way we really speak and write.  For instance, we say ?woulda? instead of ?would have.?  Plenty of smart high school level people have heard it that way so long they think it is ?would of.?  Modern code can deal with it.

 

I have cousins who speak in a dialect hard for some to understand.  I do, but I grew up around it.  OK Google has no problem.  I don?t know how they did that, but they did it.  We are free to allow language to evolve.

 

spike 

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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 15:51:15 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 10:51:15 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational waves
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3faJ7DuCNSbWhrunYGW+j0Cab-UREpNxmnJ1xQ_ym9Mw@mail.gmail.com>

?Nothing is official yet but yesterday Professor Lawrence M Krauss Tweeted
"My earlier rumor about LIGO has been confirmed by independent sources.
Stay tuned! Gravitational waves may have been discovered!! Exciting".  All
the LIGO people  (whose detector has very recently been greatly upgraded )
will say officially is "The detectors have the potential of being 10 times
more sensitive than initial LIGO. We will share results when ready - we
hope in a month or two from now, but of course we'll take the time we need
to carefully review our results."

  John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Jan 12 15:46:44 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 07:46:44 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
Message-ID: <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Brian Manning Delaney
Subject: Re: [ExI] need a new word/suffix


>...Ah, Anders, thanks! I was misinformed about "Ni".  - Brian

Not just you Brian, we all were:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knights_who_say_Ni

This brings back fond memories of a cheerfully misspent youth.

spike



From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 16:49:18 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 16:49:18 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3caARY1z+CNkOex3qt8Ct1F9myLW2rEvP9=yePPJCa4g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3caARY1z+CNkOex3qt8Ct1F9myLW2rEvP9=yePPJCa4g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armikWhoT9-60Jd0bHnqZgcUifsBYj1w3y3LbA6sKFsTULw@mail.gmail.com>

On 12 January 2016 at 15:29, John Clark  wrote:
> Oil is now selling at $31.41 a barrel, the lowest it's been in 12 years, and
> Goldman Sachs  and Morgan Stanley both predict $20 oil in the near future
> but you need to take that with a grain of salt. Goldman Sachs predicted $200
> oil in 2008 so they're not very good at forecasting the future.
>

The world has reduced the use of oil and coal. Sales have dropped off
a cliff. So the price of oil and coal has dropped because nobody wants
to buy it.

Now you may wish to discuss the reasons for this situation:

Is the world heading into a recession?
(Less industry activity means less use of oil and coal).

Is Saudi deliberately reducing the price of oil to try to bankrupt US
shale companies?
(At the risk of destroying their own economy).

Is the atmosphere pollution becoming too bad?
(When you can't breathe the air in cities, something has to change).

Is atmosphere pollution causing catastrophic weather events?
The disruption and repairing the damage is getting too costly).

Is the switch to renewable energy gathering speed?
(Very popular with the Millennial Generation).


BillK


From naturalborncyborg at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 15:46:02 2016
From: naturalborncyborg at gmail.com (Bill Burris)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 08:46:02 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3caARY1z+CNkOex3qt8Ct1F9myLW2rEvP9=yePPJCa4g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3caARY1z+CNkOex3qt8Ct1F9myLW2rEvP9=yePPJCa4g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJnmc-TJZNUi7Q+YGuqosiOoyuqjm4SYXVQqs8Z3hg1e1AiA4A@mail.gmail.com>

technology happened (fracking)
the high price was mainly due to market manipulation by OPEC and money
printing
the global economy is acting like the road runner (run past the cliff edge,
waiting for gravity to kick in)

Bill Burris
<https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail>
This
email has been sent from a virus-free computer protected by Avast.
www.avast.com
<https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail>
<#DDB4FAA8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2>

On Tue, Jan 12, 2016 at 8:29 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> Oil is now selling at $31.41 a barrel, the lowest it's been in 12 years,
> and Goldman Sachs  and Morgan Stanley both predict $20 oil in the near
> future but you need to take that with a grain of salt. Goldman Sachs
> predicted $200 oil in 2008 so they're not very good at forecasting the
> future.
>
> John K Clark
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 17:25:53 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 12:25:53 -0500
Subject: [ExI] A paranormal prediction for the next year
In-Reply-To: <CAGHyZJnSpwGvQTmhthvYvHiCG9iKBD4PPt1fTeq+UribHfRLLA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1KsQiomYHdqQxq2Tn3sgzuM698P3bgAr5_4QzdauEG_Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAGHyZJnSpwGvQTmhthvYvHiCG9iKBD4PPt1fTeq+UribHfRLLA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv1X3376qVSh6zjqktcVWCcxUKWO_stE5roDZmwZPiER8w@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Dec 30, 2015 at 2:48 PM, Colin Hales <col.hales at gmail.com> wrote:

?> ?
> Oh great but apparently crazy seer, you have done this 10 times in a row
> and been right? What manner of trickery is this??
>

?Perhaps I was able to do this because I have ESP, perhaps the exact
opposite of what the mystics say is true and for psi to work disbelief not
belief is needed. Maybe people who are certain that ESP is real don't have
an ounce of that ability and only people who
 think it's all a bunch of crap have skill in the paranormal. That would
explain its ?elusive nature, the skeptic has a stunning supernatural
experience and therefore starts to become a believer and then as a result
promptly loses all paranormal ability, and the experience is never
repeated. But I still think ESP is all a bunch of crap so my psychic powers
are still in good shape so my prediction should turn out to be true next
year too.

  John K Clark
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From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 17:47:01 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 09:47:01 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <D49F1B46-2D5D-4791-8919-06DF95876F86@gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org>
 <D49F1B46-2D5D-4791-8919-06DF95876F86@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSqfq3DAKZUervDCV_RNz3sxX-G1_uvu-cwRGBp53XUWA@mail.gmail.com>

On Jan 12, 2016 1:51 AM, "Dan TheBookMan" <danust2012 at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Jan 12, 2016, at 12:49 AM, Brian Manning Delaney <
listsb at infinitefaculty.org> wrote:
>> A parallel problem: trying to distinguish between "anti-immigration" and
"anti?illegal immigration".
>
> While one can make such a distinction, it seems arbitrary from my view.

Not at all.  The former opposes all immigrants.  The latter only opposed
those who immigrate while violating the laws about immigration.

In other words, the former would seek to close the borders entirely,
leaving the lands within only for those who happen to have made it inside
before whatever arbitrary date the closure happens.  The latter might
welcome continued immigration so long as they follow the laws, just like
everyone is supposed to, thus weeding out those who start their stay by
violating the practices and standards that those who were there already
previously agreed on.
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 17:52:12 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 11:52:12 -0600
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>

I used to hate changes in the language back in my conservative days.  I
particularly hated phonetic spelling ("what do the damn Phoenicians have to
do with anything?").  But now I think it's time for massive changes in the
language.  After all, the 'rules' of language should not actually impede
communication, but they do.

?English is becoming the lingua franca of the world, and we need to keep it
that way by changing and adapting.?

Take spelling:  English has a lot of old words still spelled the old way
and it causes problems.  (sough, bough, but tough).  It is a very difficult
language to learn because of it.  We need to make it as easy as possible -
right?  Why not go to complete phonetic spelling?  That's what we see on
Twitter etc., isn't it?  Why should written language be different?  Why not
go all the way and

wrt lk ths - esy to gt, rgt?  Very little if any slowdown even though we
are all imprinted with the old language.  Yes, there are problems with Old
Hebrew and no vowels but we can deal with them.  All it takes is
standardization, such that 'rgt' means right and 'rte' means route.  (This
would do wonders for names as well - think of Polish names and our
inability to pronounce them, like the Duke basketball coach - Krzyzewski,
pronounced Shoeshefsky).

Second, this goes right along with our powerful tendency to shorten, to
elide.  Contractions, gonna gotta shoulda, and the like show that we are
going to be lazy - sorry - be efficient and get our message across as
quickly as possible.

I can see no downside to this, but given this group, I am sure I will hear
of  plenty.

bill w

On Tue, Jan 12, 2016 at 9:46 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
> >... On Behalf Of Brian Manning Delaney
> Subject: Re: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
>
>
> >...Ah, Anders, thanks! I was misinformed about "Ni".  - Brian
>
> Not just you Brian, we all were:
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knights_who_say_Ni
>
> This brings back fond memories of a cheerfully misspent youth.
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From sparge at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 18:37:20 2016
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 13:37:20 -0500
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2fTzJUMNP_k_ZjFwBkagxBmUr=0oM9rCES46bQPi9w-Kg@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jan 12, 2016 at 12:52 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com
> wrote:

>
> Take spelling:  English has a lot of old words still spelled the old way
> and it causes problems.  (sough, bough, but tough).  It is a very difficult
> language to learn because of it.  We need to make it as easy as possible -
> right?  Why not go to complete phonetic spelling?  That's what we see on
> Twitter etc., isn't it?  Why should written language be different?  Why not
> go all the way and
>
> wrt lk ths - esy to gt, rgt?
>

Well, for one, that's not close to phonetic. Right should be rite or maybe
riit, using the double-vowel-is-long rule. Writ becomes rit.
Write/right/rite become riit. But you soon get into trouble with phonetic
spelling and standard alphabet--e.g., dipthongs. There is some loss in
spelling all homonyms the same, though. First, the reader has to deduce
which meaning was intended. Second, users lose the natural exposure to
etymology.

In the long, though, arcane spelling will become as obsolete as cursive
writing, or handwriting in general.

-Dave
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 18:40:06 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 13:40:06 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armikWhoT9-60Jd0bHnqZgcUifsBYj1w3y3LbA6sKFsTULw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3caARY1z+CNkOex3qt8Ct1F9myLW2rEvP9=yePPJCa4g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armikWhoT9-60Jd0bHnqZgcUifsBYj1w3y3LbA6sKFsTULw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv01DBuNF1w8WBBdYFGRXT7L1Qaw_sg8HUjNP-Y5Akw59Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jan 12, 2016  BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

?> ?
> The world has reduced the use of oil and coal.


?Coal use did decline in 2015 by about 4.6%, but that is not true for oil.
In 2015 the world burned 93.8 million barrels of oil a day, in 2014 it was
only 92.4 and yet the price of oil went down in 2015, and by a lot.

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm

?> ?
> Is the world heading into a recession?
>

?I don't know, but if we're heading into a recession it is not because
energy has gotten too expensive, it will be because of the Chinese bubble
and horribly run government owned companies expanding too fast making
things people don't want or need.

?> ?
> Is Saudi deliberately reducing the price of oil to try to bankrupt US
> ? ?
> shale companies?
> ? ?
> (At the risk of destroying their own economy).


?No.?


?> ?
> Is the atmosphere pollution becoming too bad?
>

?The worst air pollution is in China and India and the former USSR, and
that is primarily caused by coal not oil. ?Putting catalytic converters on
cars would certainly help too.

?> ?
> Is atmosphere pollution causing catastrophic weather events?
>

Weather
 catastrophes are no more common now than they were a 100 years ago,
they're just different. ?


> ?> ?
> Is the switch to renewable energy gathering speed?
>

?I don't see any sign of that, but I do see signs that countries like
Britain and Germany are getting tired of spending big money on subsidies
and signs most renewable energy companies can not exist without that
crutch.

  John K Clark


>
>
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From sparge at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 18:48:00 2016
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 13:48:00 -0500
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2dxejb16-n2NDVoN-Vrg+y+hM03seV_qmA_sYk8hr8e1Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Dec 12, 2015 at 4:35 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> I have looked into it a bit and there is no good suffix for 'hate'.  And
> we do need one.
>
> We are using 'xenophobia' to mean not just fear but hate and that is just
> wrong.  We can even love what we fear.
>
> So, group, I don't know of any other people who are better placed to
> create a new suffix and thus word for hate of the new/strange/different.
>
> It must, I think, start with xeno-.  Latin offers 'peregrinus' for alien.
> Maybe not workable.
>

Tying back into the spelling simplicity idea, why complicate it by using
Latin or Greek roots that aren't taught in most schools? Let's use the
German method or gluing words together and call it newhate, strangehate,
differenthate, or whatever. Maybe otherhate?

-Dave
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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Jan 12 18:47:08 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 10:47:08 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>

 

 

>? On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace
Subject: Re: [ExI] need a new word/suffix

 

>?  English has a lot of old words still spelled the old way and it causes problems.  (sough, bough, but tough).  It is a very difficult language to learn because of it.  We need to make it as easy as possible - right?  Why not go to complete phonetic spelling?  ?billw

 

I second the heeellll outta that notion BillW.  There already exists a standardized phonetic spelling that can deal with differences in the way some words are pronounced.  We can deal with the whole neether/nyther business.

Consider this.  A long time ago, Japan Incorporated realized it needed some kind of equivalent to phonetic spelling in a character set which could by typed on a western keyboard.  In a move that fills me with almost enough admiration to actually buy one of their cars, they somehow made that transition happen, from a nightmare character set and a tonal language to one that allows westerners access to their language, along with all the benefits of doing so.

Meanwhile, China failed to make the same realization, or failed to act on it.  The Chinese (as far as I know) have nothing analogous to Japan?s Romaji.  Oh they need that.  

Vietnam tried to make the transition, but made it only part way.  Now they have all those accent marks and tildas and nonsense.  All modern languages need to have a form or subset (or perhaps superset form) which does away with all the extra pronunciation marks, all the diphthongs, eliminate everything other than standardized western-keyboard style 26 characters plus numbers, period, comma, dash and space bar.  

I am not even sure about the dash, but having a colon/semicolon under the right youngest finger is keyboard design flaw.  That?s where the shift key should have been placed, but was not because of mechanical limitations when keyboards were those clattery things you young guys may have seen in the movies.

spike

 

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From listsb at infinitefaculty.org  Tue Jan 12 20:48:11 2016
From: listsb at infinitefaculty.org (Brian Manning Delaney)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 21:48:11 +0100
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <5695668B.7050306@infinitefaculty.org>


Yes to the German(ic) gluing together of words! Odd that we still carry 
with us the Norman-French sense that things southern European are 
"finer". But "otherhatred" is a perfectly clear and useful word.

And yes to phonetic spellings, though it will likely never happen. If 
only Noah Webster had been more radical. (Actually, he didn't push 
certain more radical reforms because he thought they'd be rejected, not 
because he wasn't radical.)


> I am not even sure about the dash, but having a colon/semicolon under
> the right youngest finger is keyboard design flaw.  That?s where the
> shift key should have been placed, but was not because of mechanical
> limitations when keyboards were those clattery things you young guys may
> have seen in the movies.

Microsoft Keyboard Layout Creator helps. I'm not sure it can help one 
reprogram the location of the shift key, but I created my own custom 
keyboard years ago to improve upon other design flaws of standard 
keyboards. Have to readjust when using normo-keyboards, but that's a 
rare event these days.

- Brian



From danust2012 at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 21:41:50 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 13:41:50 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3caARY1z+CNkOex3qt8Ct1F9myLW2rEvP9=yePPJCa4g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3caARY1z+CNkOex3qt8Ct1F9myLW2rEvP9=yePPJCa4g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <DD1C1ACD-9580-4A27-B745-3D1DC191060B@gmail.com>

On Jan 12, 2016, at 7:29 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> Oil is now selling at $31.41 a barrel, the lowest it's been in 12 years, and Goldman Sachs  and Morgan Stanley both predict $20 oil in the near future but you need to take that with a grain of salt. Goldman Sachs predicted $200 oil in 2008 so they're not very good at forecasting the future.

Have a little faith! Pessimistic bias will turn up again in oil predictions -- as it does every few years.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From anders at aleph.se  Tue Jan 12 22:29:11 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 22:29:11 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armikWhoT9-60Jd0bHnqZgcUifsBYj1w3y3LbA6sKFsTULw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3caARY1z+CNkOex3qt8Ct1F9myLW2rEvP9=yePPJCa4g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armikWhoT9-60Jd0bHnqZgcUifsBYj1w3y3LbA6sKFsTULw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56957E37.8080906@aleph.se>

On 2016-01-12 16:49, BillK wrote:
> On 12 January 2016 at 15:29, John Clark  wrote:
>> Oil is now selling at $31.41 a barrel, the lowest it's been in 12 years, and
>> Goldman Sachs  and Morgan Stanley both predict $20 oil in the near future
>> but you need to take that with a grain of salt. Goldman Sachs predicted $200
>> oil in 2008 so they're not very good at forecasting the future.
> The world has reduced the use of oil and coal. Sales have dropped off
> a cliff. So the price of oil and coal has dropped because nobody wants
> to buy it.

Nope. Looking at 
http://www.artberman.com/wp-content/uploads/Chart_PROD-CONS-2013-15_11-March-20151.jpg 

(based on  http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/tables/?tableNumber=6# )
shows that consumption is up, while the price is going down. This is 
easy to explain due to the Saudis pumping a lot (and the final breakdown 
of OPEC?) Given the low price I would expect efforts to use less oil 
will slow over the next few years.

The problem with forecasts is that this is a domain that to a great 
extent depends on a few actors decisions. I think (from reading the 
Economist) that few expected the Saudis to turn on the tap when it 
happened. Of course, the peak oilers are right in principle that at some 
point we will run out, but as I love to point out, their predictions 
were typically biased by the vagaries of curve fitting:
http://aleph.se/papers/A%20Sigmoid%20Dialogue.pdf
http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2011/05/why_i_dont_trust_hubbert_peak_arguments.html


> Is the atmosphere pollution becoming too bad?
> (When you can't breathe the air in cities, something has to change).

Yep. Although the overall pollution levels vary from city to city. 
Horrible in New Dheli and Beijing, pretty fine in many European cities. 
The smog in the developing countries is to a large extent due to cheap, 
oldfashioned polluting technology and not enough demand for clean air 
(other things like prosperity has higher priority - and often the 
decision is not made by the people suffering from the air).

> Is atmosphere pollution causing catastrophic weather events?
> The disruption and repairing the damage is getting too costly).

That is actually an interesting issue. I have been following Atlantic 
hurricanes over the past years thanks to my insurance project, and the 
rough consensus is that climate change does not seem to make them more 
common or much worse, that the Atlantic right now is in a rather quiet 
state, and that the real cause of expensive disasters is more people and 
wealth near coasts.

Now, direct pollution (soot particles and aerosols) have other effects. 
There is some evidence that this is messing with south Asian weather 
(equatorial rainstorms becoming more intense, with about the same amount 
of water), concerns about the Monsoon due to the cooling effect of the 
soot, and of course the horrible Indonesian aerosol cloud. But nobody is 
really certain.

> Is the switch to renewable energy gathering speed?
> (Very popular with the Millennial Generation).

My own take on it is that the current cheap oil will slow down the big 
renewable projects, but probably not slow down the R&D into better 
methods. When oil prices turn up in a while it will be possible to do 
much better renewable systems - the recent pressure to do them led to a 
fair number of subsidy-based dodos. I suspect there is room for more 
Teslas here.

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 23:10:17 2016
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 15:10:17 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB5nTVxeK5trpmgBTqLCTwkezG235Y=oHOpfirKcDEkJkQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jan 12, 2016 at 2:45 AM,   Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2016-01-11 01:35, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
>>
>> Problem is:  how do we make any neologism popular?
>
> http://www.aleph.se/Trans/Cultural/Memetics/memecycle.html
>
> Basically, it needs to be memorable, have some bait (like being cool,
> fun, apposite), and easy to use. Specialized neologisms spread through
> writing more than everyday ones.

I am on record (Second Ed of Selfish Gene) as having coined memeoids.
My wife gets credit (from Douglas Hofstader) for the term "memetics."

> Most neologisms fail.

Most everything fails.  But we have to keep trying.

Incidentally, it looks like I will be in the UK, Oxford in fact, the
first week of March.  Open ended for how long I am there.

Keith


From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Jan 12 23:27:33 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 23:27:33 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?
In-Reply-To: <56957E37.8080906@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv3caARY1z+CNkOex3qt8Ct1F9myLW2rEvP9=yePPJCa4g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armikWhoT9-60Jd0bHnqZgcUifsBYj1w3y3LbA6sKFsTULw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56957E37.8080906@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhZCEPwTtasaPUe2R3JQzWwzr26M-mqS++6GJZcFmxBMQ@mail.gmail.com>

On 12 January 2016 at 22:29, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> Nope. Looking at
> http://www.artberman.com/wp-content/uploads/Chart_PROD-CONS-2013-15_11-March-20151.jpg
> (based on  http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/tables/?tableNumber=6# )
> shows that consumption is up, while the price is going down. This is easy to
> explain due to the Saudis pumping a lot (and the final breakdown of OPEC?)
> Given the low price I would expect efforts to use less oil will slow over
> the next few years.
>

But the world population is growing and car use is growing about 10%
per year also.
2010 had about 1 billion vehicles.
2020 is estimated to be about 2 billion vehicles.
Current over-production of oil is certainly helping to reduce the
price, but there are other factors in play as well.

BillK


From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Jan 13 00:43:42 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 16:43:42 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQR3vCrfx+Fk2Dv8oSdxwyTeCSzUWQmLYsqMLh_xiEccA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNT-qE_SU46D8-TLBsJ_f3zYamELdq_6Bfs_29q=Eu5ZTw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQR3vCrfx+Fk2Dv8oSdxwyTeCSzUWQmLYsqMLh_xiEccA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQMANDEfzt-1PMR=0ukHk64UoADvohpU_fdncGDsXLyDw@mail.gmail.com>

On Jan 12, 2016 11:02 AM, "spike" <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> The Chinese (as far as I know) have nothing analogous to Japan?s Romaji.

It's called pinyin.  However, it was a mid-20th century invention, vs.
romaji in its mostly current form dating to when Japan's isolation was
ended in the 19th, and was reluctantly (it took the Communist takeover to
pull it off) adopted after seeing how Japan benefitted.  It is also
somewhat more complicated.  Both China and Japan had thoughts about this
around 1600, but then Japan sealed itself off and China apparently lost
interest.
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From sjv2006 at gmail.com  Wed Jan 13 01:56:33 2016
From: sjv2006 at gmail.com (Stephen Van Sickle)
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 2016 17:56:33 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CADYziYAS0eroA1B+7vVhJ9qptcWUQ-r2uaD1C84YqzzjtacHvA@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jan 12, 2016 at 9:52 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:


> Why not go to complete phonetic spelling?
>

Why not go whole hog and adopt the Shavian alphabet:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shavian_alphabet

And while we are at it, fix the counting system:

http://www.dozenal.org/

don't get me started...
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From stathisp at gmail.com  Wed Jan 13 03:28:22 2016
From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 14:28:22 +1100
Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv01DBuNF1w8WBBdYFGRXT7L1Qaw_sg8HUjNP-Y5Akw59Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3caARY1z+CNkOex3qt8Ct1F9myLW2rEvP9=yePPJCa4g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armikWhoT9-60Jd0bHnqZgcUifsBYj1w3y3LbA6sKFsTULw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv01DBuNF1w8WBBdYFGRXT7L1Qaw_sg8HUjNP-Y5Akw59Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAH=2ypVYSd0f0HXkmhJTApbUV-B6S44-_wD0BRVVq+-XUkqq=A@mail.gmail.com>

On Wednesday, 13 January 2016, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Tue, Jan 12, 2016  BillK <pharos at gmail.com
> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','pharos at gmail.com');>> wrote:
>
> ?> ?
>> The world has reduced the use of oil and coal.
>
>
> ?Coal use did decline in 2015 by about 4.6%, but that is not true for
> oil. In 2015 the world burned 93.8 million barrels of oil a day, in 2014 it
> was only 92.4 and yet the price of oil went down in 2015, and by a lot.
>
> https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm
>
> ?> ?
>> Is the world heading into a recession?
>>
>
> ?I don't know, but if we're heading into a recession it is not because
> energy has gotten too expensive, it will be because of the Chinese bubble
> and horribly run government owned companies expanding too fast making
> things people don't want or need.
>
> ?> ?
>> Is Saudi deliberately reducing the price of oil to try to bankrupt US
>> ? ?
>> shale companies?
>> ? ?
>> (At the risk of destroying their own economy).
>
>
> ?No.?
>
>

A large part of it is that Saudi, and other OPEC countries, have not agreed
to reduce production and support the price.


> ?> ?
>> Is the atmosphere pollution becoming too bad?
>>
>
> ?The worst air pollution is in China and India and the former USSR, and
> that is primarily caused by coal not oil. ?Putting catalytic converters on
> cars would certainly help too.
>
> ?> ?
>> Is atmosphere pollution causing catastrophic weather events?
>>
>
> Weather
>  catastrophes are no more common now than they were a 100 years ago,
> they're just different. ?
>
>
>> ?> ?
>> Is the switch to renewable energy gathering speed?
>>
>
> ?I don't see any sign of that, but I do see signs that countries like
> Britain and Germany are getting tired of spending big money on subsidies
> and signs most renewable energy companies can not exist without that
> crutch.
>
>   John K Clark
>
>
>>
>>

-- 
Stathis Papaioannou
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From msd001 at gmail.com  Wed Jan 13 17:05:37 2016
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 12:05:37 -0500
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jan 12, 2016 at 1:47 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> I am not even sure about the dash, but having a colon/semicolon under the
> right youngest finger is keyboard design flaw.  That?s where the shift key
> should have been placed, but was not because of mechanical limitations when
> keyboards were those clattery things you young guys may have seen in the
> movies.

All of my fingers are the same age.  I was just checking to make sure
you hadn't lost then regrown one.  Not judging; that'd be pretty cool
if you had.  :)



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Wed Jan 13 18:30:17 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 13:30:17 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?
In-Reply-To: <CAH=2ypVYSd0f0HXkmhJTApbUV-B6S44-_wD0BRVVq+-XUkqq=A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3caARY1z+CNkOex3qt8Ct1F9myLW2rEvP9=yePPJCa4g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armikWhoT9-60Jd0bHnqZgcUifsBYj1w3y3LbA6sKFsTULw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv01DBuNF1w8WBBdYFGRXT7L1Qaw_sg8HUjNP-Y5Akw59Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAH=2ypVYSd0f0HXkmhJTApbUV-B6S44-_wD0BRVVq+-XUkqq=A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv00p_G9W+jfuPu0jT-0V10zF3Qu1jxoVyg9n6whr+xGpg@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jan 12, 2016 at 10:28 PM, Stathis Papaioannou <stathisp at gmail.com>
wrote:

>
?> ?
> A large part of it is that Saudi, and other OPEC countries, have not
> agreed to reduce production and support the price.
>

?Just a few years ago OPEC had the power to set the price of oil at just
about any place they wanted, but recently other producers have come on line
in a big way (thanks largely to fracking) and they no longer have that
power. In the past they could reduce production and still make just as much
money because the price per barrel would shoot up, but that won't work
today because now 60% of the world's oil is pumped from non-OPEC wells. So
OPEC is hurting and if they reduced production they'd make even less money
and that would increase domestic discontent and instability and encourage
other producers to drill even more wells.

 John K Clark







>
>
>>
>>>
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Wed Jan 13 20:45:05 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 14:45:05 -0600
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>

?re Shavian alphabet

The problem I see is just like what happened to Esperanto and the Dvorak
keyboard:  people spent a lot of time devising these and to no ultimate
purpose.  No big authority like the government adopted them.  No schools
taught them because nobody said they had to.

Just as Windows people want to cling to the Start box, there's a lot of
inertia in language.  Words like 'smog' got picked up rapidly by other
meteorologists and they got national attention, so it was easy to move that
into the language??.    ?

?I agree that in the long run, antiquated spelling will eventually get
replaced, but WHEN??  How to popularize?

bill w
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Wed Jan 13 21:08:28 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 13:08:28 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <8F1FC17E-B5FE-448E-B40F-72DEB560994C@gmail.com>

On Jan 13, 2016, at 12:45 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
> ?re Shavian alphabet
> 
> The problem I see is just like what happened to Esperanto and the Dvorak keyboard:  people spent a lot of time devising these and to no ultimate purpose.  No big authority like the government adopted them.  No schools taught them because nobody said they had to.
> 
> Just as Windows people want to cling to the Start box, there's a lot of inertia in language.  Words like 'smog' got picked up rapidly by other meteorologists and they got national attention, so it was easy to move that into the language??.    ?
> 
> ?I agree that in the long run, antiquated spelling will eventually get replaced, but WHEN??  How to popularize?  

I think it's interesting to step back and look at these things more soberly. Was/is Dvorak keyboard really better? (I think the case is not as clear cut as Dvorak crackpots -- er, aficionados believe.;) Why do so called antiquated spellings persist? (Might have more to do with social status than matching phonetics. The spellings of "could," "would," and "should" seem to be examples of that.)

You also highlight a problem here with designing something to fix a problem no one much cares about. Of course, one can know ahead of time that a different keyboard layout or a neologism won't catch on. (Or can one? The idea of coming up with s replacement for -phobia endings sounds more arcane and is in the area of replacing existing words or word endings. "Smog" kind of describes something that, to my knowledge, didn't have a simple noun for before. It also came up with a simple nontechnical word that sounds like it fits.;)

Gravity waves, anyone?

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Jan 13 21:13:41 2016
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 16:13:41 -0500
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFjXjJj6S=M25edP-5ZhBybinwJBE8LjqTuohf6CdCmZHA@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Jan 13, 2016 at 3:45 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:
>
>
> ?I agree that in the long run, antiquated spelling will eventually get
> replaced, but WHEN??  How to popularize?
>

### Doubt it and why bother? Spellcheckers and various voice to text and
text to voice software easily handle the cognitive load imposed by
"antiquated" spelling. Why make an effort only to look like a weirdo in a
communication?

Rafal
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From tara at taramayastales.com  Wed Jan 13 21:48:00 2016
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 13:48:00 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFjXjJj6S=M25edP-5ZhBybinwJBE8LjqTuohf6CdCmZHA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFjXjJj6S=M25edP-5ZhBybinwJBE8LjqTuohf6CdCmZHA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <06317775-1F22-4E72-9D59-FAADB7D0B330@taramayastales.com>

I think what we are seeing is that the written form evolves more slowly than the spoken form. An interesting question is, that possibly could be studied historically, is whether literacy increases the speed of the evolution of written language or retards it.


Hypothesis #1: A larger literate population will put more pressure, faster, on regularizing orthography. Anecdotal evidence: Thru, lite, hi-lite, tonite, donut, scarfs, ?they? as the gender-neutral singular, and so on are all spreading.

Hypothesis #2: Evolutionary drift of speech could be slowed down by widespread literacy. Slangs of the 19th and 20th century have been smoothed out and eliminated by re-convergence on the written form as a sign and condition of being educated. For example, dropped ?h? has reappeared in many places; terms like ?I spect? or ?I growed? common in Twain?s time have reconverted on ?I expect" and ?I grew? 

Hypothesis # 3: Writing could also become more ?logical? by forcing spoken English to match the written form, rather than vice versa. A larger literate population means children learn writing almost as early as they learn speech. (Parents start reading books to babies, and many toddlers already know ?sight words? (site words?) and the phonics of the alphabet.) Children then make the kind of errors that over centuries can force the language in that direction. Example: Know pronounced as ?kanow?, gnome as ?genome?

Tara Maya





> On Jan 13, 2016, at 1:13 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> 
> 
> On Wed, Jan 13, 2016 at 3:45 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com <mailto:foozler83 at gmail.com>> wrote:
> 
> ?I agree that in the long run, antiquated spelling will eventually get replaced, but WHEN??  How to popularize?
> 
> ### Doubt it and why bother? Spellcheckers and various voice to text and text to voice software easily handle the cognitive load imposed by "antiquated" spelling. Why make an effort only to look like a weirdo in a communication?
> 
> Rafal
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



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From spike66 at att.net  Wed Jan 13 21:48:04 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 13:48:04 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00ed01d14e4c$158c43d0$40a4cb70$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace
Sent: Wednesday, January 13, 2016 12:45 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] need a new word/suffix

 

?re Shavian alphabet

The problem I see is just like what happened to Esperanto and the Dvorak keyboard:  people spent a lot of time devising these and to no ultimate purpose.  No big authority like the government adopted them.  No schools taught them because nobody said they had to?bill w

 

 

Esperanto failed because of insufficient benefit from previously acquired expertise.  If on the other hand, we adopt a system whereby phonetic spellings and formerly standardized (dictionary) spellings were used, even in the same message, perhaps even with the same word spelled two different ways, then people who know the old way can use it, young people can use it, English learners can use it.  It is accessible to all and benefits from the knowledge base already in place.

 

Esperanto is a good example of a system in which a lot of investment was made with little to show for it.  

 

Klingon is another example.  You hear it at Star Trek conventions (with some of the hardcore yahoos very fluent) but it never gained much traction: didn?t take advantage of existing language expertise.

 

Dvorak keyboards: everyone has the option of doing that.  I saw a freeware package that Dvorakizes any keyboard with one CTRL Alt command.  I don?t recall where to find that, but if it existed at one time, it is somewhere out there to be found still.  The internet never forgets.

 

spike

 

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From tara at taramayastales.com  Wed Jan 13 22:15:25 2016
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 14:15:25 -0800
Subject: [ExI] sf zine looking for stories
Message-ID: <E25FD03F-1451-4614-A796-DEBA7B7B1919@taramayastales.com>

I?m one of the editors on an ezine, Hero & Heroine, that is looking for speculative fiction stories and essays. We don?t have a website up yet, sorry.

FICTION: 
Length 2000 - 35,000 words
Short stories to Novellas
(We accept novel excerpts that can stand alone with a ?happy for now? conclusion). 

It?s a non-pro, non-paid market, asking non-exclusive, digital-only rights. (It?s okay if your story's been published before or if you have it published elsewhere concurrently, as long as you own the rights.) It must have a speculative element (sf, fantasy, alt history, time travel, paranormal), it must be science-positive, and it must have a happy ending or ?happy for now? ending. A heroic, romantic action adventure quest is preferred to a postmodern/deconstructionist structure. Think of the old pulp sf magazines and fan zines. Stories about transhumanism would be great! (Keep in mind, though, that any moral to the story should be subtle, not preachy or pushy.)

NON-FICTION
Length 1000 - 3000 words
We?ll also accept a few essays about the future, transhumanism, AI, the genre of sf&f, space travel, new planets, terraforming, aliens, the fermi paradox, any cool new discovery or imagined future tech... pretty much anything we discuss on this list. Also some things we don?t often discuss like elves, dwarves, role-playing, con culture, werewolves, fae, comparative magic, portals to other worlds, all things fantasy, etc.

Rights are non-paid for non-exclusive content. (If you?ve already published it on your blog or website that?s fine, as long as you own the rights.) Your essay may appear in an issue with a Conad the Barbarian in a fur-throng or Super Gamer Girl in a metallic bikini on the cover, so don?t include anything you?d be embarrassed to have next to a story about robot detectives or werewolves in love.

For inquiries, put Hero and Heroine Submissions in the subject line and email: editor at misquepress.com


Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Wed Jan 13 23:42:44 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 15:42:44 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Decentralized, DIY science returns
Message-ID: <678CD788-24DE-4A34-8B8A-07D6EA515C5B@gmail.com>

http://reason.com/blog/2016/01/13/the-return-of-decentralized-diy-science

I'm not sure it ever left, but, yes, it's getting ever easier to do because the availability of low price technology.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Jan 14 01:29:52 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 19:29:52 -0600
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <00ed01d14e4c$158c43d0$40a4cb70$@att.net>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00ed01d14e4c$158c43d0$40a4cb70$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbPna-O6tO6MbvFFNm-X14wwzq1NM9rzr--bAbSxNwX7Q@mail.gmail.com>

I am hoping that this generation of Tweeters will change the language
dramatically in the direction we are talking about.  They are talking about
the disappearance of cursive writing and I too think that's good, though
some writing will be with us forever, I think.  As soon as programs like
Dragon Speaking get really good, we will no longer use our thumbs to write
on our cell phones, and may move away from the keyboard entirely, as who
can type as fast as he can talk?  And if AI gets as good as some predict,
we won't have to do a lot of editing when we speak into a computer.

In some of my scifi books there is an AI drone who flies near his owner and
records everything, has offensive capabilities, GPS and everything else we
can imagine.  Cool!  Wouldn't everyone love such a sidekick?

?I did download a Dvorak keyboard program and thought that if I were to
practice it it would be significantly easier to use, but I did not follow
up on that, as I am quite quick with this one.?


On Wed, Jan 13, 2016 at 3:48 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace
> *Sent:* Wednesday, January 13, 2016 12:45 PM
> *To:* ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
>
>
>
> ?re Shavian alphabet
>
> The problem I see is just like what happened to Esperanto and the Dvorak
> keyboard:  people spent a lot of time devising these and to no ultimate
> purpose.  No big authority like the government adopted them.  No schools
> taught them because nobody said they had to?bill w
>
>
>
>
>
> Esperanto failed because of insufficient benefit from previously acquired
> expertise.  If on the other hand, we adopt a system whereby phonetic
> spellings and formerly standardized (dictionary) spellings were used, even
> in the same message, perhaps even with the same word spelled two different
> ways, then people who know the old way can use it, young people can use it,
> English learners can use it.  It is accessible to all and benefits from the
> knowledge base already in place.
>
>
>
> Esperanto is a good example of a system in which a lot of investment was
> made with little to show for it.
>
>
>
> Klingon is another example.  You hear it at Star Trek conventions (with
> some of the hardcore yahoos very fluent) but it never gained much traction:
> didn?t take advantage of existing language expertise.
>
>
>
> Dvorak keyboards: everyone has the option of doing that.  I saw a freeware
> package that Dvorakizes any keyboard with one CTRL Alt command.  I don?t
> recall where to find that, but if it existed at one time, it is somewhere
> out there to be found still.  The internet never forgets.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Thu Jan 14 02:36:29 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 18:36:29 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Dvorak keyboard: myth?/was Re:  need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbPna-O6tO6MbvFFNm-X14wwzq1NM9rzr--bAbSxNwX7Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00ed01d14e4c$158c43d0$40a4cb70$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbPna-O6tO6MbvFFNm-X14wwzq1NM9rzr--bAbSxNwX7Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <D0A7ED50-4ACB-4203-949E-35FBF350AD76@gmail.com>

Since Dvorak continues to be discussed as if it were clearly better than Qwerty, here's a dissenting voice (or two):

https://www.utdallas.edu/~liebowit/keys1.html

This suggests being more careful when coming to the conclusion that something is broken and there's a simple yet somehow ignored fix that can only be explained by most people being irrational or dim. (Of course, if you disagree with Liebowitz and Margolis, then that's another matter. I feel they make a pretty strong case, but haven't kept up with the Dvorak debate.)

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Jan 14 03:10:59 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 22:10:59 -0500
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CADYziYAS0eroA1B+7vVhJ9qptcWUQ-r2uaD1C84YqzzjtacHvA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CADYziYAS0eroA1B+7vVhJ9qptcWUQ-r2uaD1C84YqzzjtacHvA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0x=LuZeoLEc+kJnj+c2FOoPEc-1R+oyph68x82JSG7Uw@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jan 12, 2016  Stephen Van Sickle <sjv2006 at gmail.com> wrote:

?> ?
> And while we are at it, fix the counting system:
> http://www.dozenal.org/
>

?It wouldn't be worth
?changing the standard?
 now but if I could go back in time a thousand years I'd push for a base 8
counting system
?,?
not base 10 or 12
?,?
because conversion between binary and octal is
?
really
? ?really
easy.
? ?
If
?
base 8 were the standard
?
the mechanical
?
problems Charles Babbage had in
?
trying to
?
build
?
his Analytical Engine would have been greatly reduced and the computer
revolution might have started in the mid 19th century instead of the mid
20th.
?
Maybe
?
Leibniz
? could have stared it even sooner in the early 18th century.

At the very least third graders would be grateful that the multiplication
table was easier to memorize.

? John K Clark?
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From sjv2006 at gmail.com  Thu Jan 14 04:25:21 2016
From: sjv2006 at gmail.com (Stephen Van Sickle)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 20:25:21 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CADYziYBkOBXHQAYbWSF8aQjVX2PPePY5AegE-j8eequBuxFp5g@mail.gmail.com>

On Jan 13, 2016 12:47, "William Flynn Wallace" <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:

> The problem I see is just like what happened to Esperanto and the Dvorak
keyboard:  people spent a lot of time devising these and to no ultimate
purpose.

Same with spelling reform.  Might as well try to move to a new alphabet.
Neither is likely.

-s
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From sjv2006 at gmail.com  Thu Jan 14 05:14:45 2016
From: sjv2006 at gmail.com (Stephen Van Sickle)
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 21:14:45 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFjXjJj6S=M25edP-5ZhBybinwJBE8LjqTuohf6CdCmZHA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFjXjJj6S=M25edP-5ZhBybinwJBE8LjqTuohf6CdCmZHA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CADYziYCAXdZ_1W9JApYXD5rd2R2UKw0tQ_oxHkdumb0FuxY5_Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Jan 13, 2016 13:14, "Rafal Smigrodzki" <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>
wrote:

>Why make an effort only to look like a weirdo in a communication?

Looking like a weirdo is its own reward!

s
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From anders at aleph.se  Thu Jan 14 08:31:26 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 14 Jan 2016 08:31:26 +0000
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <00ed01d14e4c$158c43d0$40a4cb70$@att.net>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00ed01d14e4c$158c43d0$40a4cb70$@att.net>
Message-ID: <56975CDE.3030304@aleph.se>

On 2016-01-13 21:48, spike wrote:
> Esperanto is a good example of a system in which a lot of investment 
> was made with little to show for it.
>
> Klingon is another example.  You hear it at Star Trek conventions 
> (with some of the hardcore yahoos very fluent) but it never gained 
> much traction: didn?t take advantage of existing language expertise.
>

I recommend "In the Land of Invented Languages" by Arika Okrent. She 
goes through the history and approaches to artificial languages.

Esperanto is an auxlang, intended to help people communicate: it is by 
far the most successful such language. It is just not useful enough. 
Meanwhile Klingon is full with linguistic in-jokes: it is deliberately 
obtuse to be alien, and unlikely to be easy to learn (Okrent's framing 
story is about her learning Klingon - she is a professional linguist, 
how hard could it be?)

The problem is that languages are fairly expensive if you convert the 
time it takes to learn them into salaried hours. They need to be very 
useful to be worth it.

(Trivia: the micronation Moresnet planned to use Esperanto as official 
language. http://www.ipernity.com/blog/jens_s_larsen/242660 )

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Jan 14 10:13:25 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 14 Jan 2016 10:13:25 +0000
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbPna-O6tO6MbvFFNm-X14wwzq1NM9rzr--bAbSxNwX7Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00ed01d14e4c$158c43d0$40a4cb70$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbPna-O6tO6MbvFFNm-X14wwzq1NM9rzr--bAbSxNwX7Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjPNO1Bfs61ndRwJpUi5JAqSzfLE58VFr-w1B3gCwK6Yw@mail.gmail.com>

On 14 January 2016 at 01:29, William Flynn Wallace  wrote:
> I am hoping that this generation of Tweeters will change the language
> dramatically in the direction we are talking about.  They are talking about
> the disappearance of cursive writing and I too think that's good, though
> some writing will be with us forever, I think.  As soon as programs like
> Dragon Speaking get really good, we will no longer use our thumbs to write
> on our cell phones, and may move away from the keyboard entirely, as who can
> type as fast as he can talk?  And if AI gets as good as some predict, we
> won't have to do a lot of editing when we speak into a computer.
>


Speed isn't everything.  Quality matters.

Twitter seems to produce a very low level of communication.
Some authors still prefer cursive writing. Probably because it forces
them to spend time thinking about what they are writing.
Dictation produces a different style of writing. And when transcribed
to text you lose all the voice inflexions. shrugs, and other
non-verbal communications.

Even typing in haste produces errors. (Though readers cannot hear the
screams of rage as you type).  :)
Rereading and using the spellcheck should be made a habit.
Sometimes I even 'sleep on it'. Rereading something in the cold light
of day can often cause a rewrite.


BillK


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Jan 14 16:24:43 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 14 Jan 2016 10:24:43 -0600
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjPNO1Bfs61ndRwJpUi5JAqSzfLE58VFr-w1B3gCwK6Yw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00ed01d14e4c$158c43d0$40a4cb70$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbPna-O6tO6MbvFFNm-X14wwzq1NM9rzr--bAbSxNwX7Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjPNO1Bfs61ndRwJpUi5JAqSzfLE58VFr-w1B3gCwK6Yw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaPG384DKsfEif9eixg5Je63rAmrGESu20ceJAi14nBCA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Jan 14, 2016 at 4:13 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On 14 January 2016 at 01:29, William Flynn Wallace  wrote:
> > I am hoping that this generation of Tweeters will change the language
> > dramatically in the direction we are talking about.  They are talking
> about
> > the disappearance of cursive writing and I too think that's good, though
> > some writing will be with us forever, I think.  As soon as programs like
> > Dragon Speaking get really good, we will no longer use our thumbs to
> write
> > on our cell phones, and may move away from the keyboard entirely, as who
> can
> > type as fast as he can talk?  And if AI gets as good as some predict, we
> > won't have to do a lot of editing when we speak into a computer.
> >
>
>
> Speed isn't everything.  Quality matters.
>
> Twitter seems to produce a very low level of communication.
> Some authors still prefer cursive writing. Probably because it forces
> them to spend time thinking about what they are writing.
> Dictation produces a different style of writing. And when transcribed
> to text you lose all the voice inflexions. shrugs, and other
> non-verbal communications.
>
> Even typing in haste produces errors. (Though readers cannot hear the
> screams of rage as you type).  :)
> Rereading and using the spellcheck should be made a habit.
> Sometimes I even 'sleep on it'. Rereading something in the cold light
> of day can often cause a rewrite.
>
>
> BillK
>
?I don't think as I write.  I think beforehand and then transcribe it.  My
first copy is very often my final copy, though I do proofread very
diligently, and more than once.  Decades of grading essays showed me that
most people don't do a good job, even after much urging from me, and so I
might not either.  I know what I want to say, but want to make sure I did
say it.  My dissertation had to be proofread by someone else, as I got to
the point where I was reading what I meant to say rather than what was on
paper.

WordPerfect had a grammar checker that would tell you such things as
whether you used the passive voice a lot.  Wonder where that went.?

?  I bet you'll tell me.

bill w

bill w?

> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Jan 14 16:59:19 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 14 Jan 2016 16:59:19 +0000
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaPG384DKsfEif9eixg5Je63rAmrGESu20ceJAi14nBCA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00ed01d14e4c$158c43d0$40a4cb70$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbPna-O6tO6MbvFFNm-X14wwzq1NM9rzr--bAbSxNwX7Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjPNO1Bfs61ndRwJpUi5JAqSzfLE58VFr-w1B3gCwK6Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaPG384DKsfEif9eixg5Je63rAmrGESu20ceJAi14nBCA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjTTUgJUNKwTYR2ggZkshmLF997p59BY+rcrGvh8NDKUQ@mail.gmail.com>

On 14 January 2016 at 16:24, William Flynn Wallace  wrote:
<snip>
> WordPerfect had a grammar checker that would tell you such things as whether
> you used the passive voice a lot.  Wonder where that went.
>


Wow! You're going way back. The youngsters won't have heard of WordPerfect. :)
Now, WordStar - that was a real word processor!

Grammar checkers still exist, but have a poor record. Without proper
natural language AI they make many mistakes and often make text much
worse. They can spot clich?s by a simple database lookup.
Sometimes helpful for people who are learning English as she is spoke.

They are available on the web, e.g.
http://www.grammarcheck.me/
http://www.gingersoftware.com/grammarcheck
http://www.grammarbase.com/


BillK



From tara at taramayastales.com  Thu Jan 14 17:10:24 2016
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Thu, 14 Jan 2016 09:10:24 -0800
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjTTUgJUNKwTYR2ggZkshmLF997p59BY+rcrGvh8NDKUQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00ed01d14e4c$158c43d0$40a4cb70$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbPna-O6tO6MbvFFNm-X14wwzq1NM9rzr--bAbSxNwX7Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjPNO1Bfs61ndRwJpUi5JAqSzfLE58VFr-w1B3gCwK6Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaPG384DKsfEif9eixg5Je63rAmrGESu20ceJAi14nBCA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjTTUgJUNKwTYR2ggZkshmLF997p59BY+rcrGvh8NDKUQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <302B74AF-6A4A-410D-8FE0-03C5522312CD@taramayastales.com>

I use several different grammar and style checkers, but they are useful only for writers who already know grammar, because the checker itself must always be checked. They are useful for catching typos, passive constructions, repeated words, cliches and the like, but sometimes those are not ?errors.? Since I write science fiction and fantasy, these programs tend to find many ?errors? that aren?t in my writing. 

Tara Maya


> On Jan 14, 2016, at 8:59 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> On 14 January 2016 at 16:24, William Flynn Wallace  wrote:
> <snip>
>> WordPerfect had a grammar checker that would tell you such things as whether
>> you used the passive voice a lot.  Wonder where that went.
>> 
> 
> 
> Wow! You're going way back. The youngsters won't have heard of WordPerfect. :)
> Now, WordStar - that was a real word processor!
> 
> Grammar checkers still exist, but have a poor record. Without proper
> natural language AI they make many mistakes and often make text much
> worse. They can spot clich?s by a simple database lookup.
> Sometimes helpful for people who are learning English as she is spoke.
> 
> They are available on the web, e.g.
> http://www.grammarcheck.me/
> http://www.gingersoftware.com/grammarcheck
> http://www.grammarbase.com/
> 
> 
> BillK
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

Tara Maya
Blog  |  Twitter  |  Facebook  |  Amazon  |  Goodreads






From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Jan 14 17:23:35 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 14 Jan 2016 11:23:35 -0600
Subject: [ExI] need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjTTUgJUNKwTYR2ggZkshmLF997p59BY+rcrGvh8NDKUQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00ed01d14e4c$158c43d0$40a4cb70$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbPna-O6tO6MbvFFNm-X14wwzq1NM9rzr--bAbSxNwX7Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjPNO1Bfs61ndRwJpUi5JAqSzfLE58VFr-w1B3gCwK6Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaPG384DKsfEif9eixg5Je63rAmrGESu20ceJAi14nBCA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjTTUgJUNKwTYR2ggZkshmLF997p59BY+rcrGvh8NDKUQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZzj+ZZocxVbve1=8KAo=z80p=p8N-4-ek=68N9CL3LTQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Jan 14, 2016 at 10:59 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On 14 January 2016 at 16:24, William Flynn Wallace  wrote:
> <snip>
> > WordPerfect had a grammar checker that would tell you such things as
> whether
> > you used the passive voice a lot.  Wonder where that went.
> >
>
>
> Wow! You're going way back. The youngsters won't have heard of
> WordPerfect. :)
> Now, WordStar - that was a real word processor!
>
> Grammar checkers still exist, but have a poor record. Without proper
> natural language AI they make many mistakes and often make text much
> worse. They can spot clich?s by a simple database lookup.
> Sometimes helpful for people who are learning English as she is spoke.
>
> They are available on the web, e.g.
> http://www.grammarcheck.me/
> http://www.gingersoftware.com/grammarcheck
> http://www.grammarbase.com/


Thanks!!  ?Like many my age I have forgotten how many word processing
prog??rams I have learned, including Radio Shacks Scripsit (to go with the
8" disks).  Grammar checks are surely wrong a lot, but not to the point of
being worthless?.

Good point about people learning English, but will people bother to learn
other languages when AI gets so good that idioms etc. are easily
translated?  Like the hearing aid things people in scifi stories wear.
That can't be too far off, eh?

bill w

>
>
> ?bill w?
>
> BillK
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Thu Jan 14 19:32:37 2016
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Thu, 14 Jan 2016 14:32:37 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Fwd:  need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFg-EkD+w=-zS+Oc46gBxdm9jX7D8h+u4hh+HGp6ksU0LQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFjXjJj6S=M25edP-5ZhBybinwJBE8LjqTuohf6CdCmZHA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CADYziYCAXdZ_1W9JApYXD5rd2R2UKw0tQ_oxHkdumb0FuxY5_Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg-EkD+w=-zS+Oc46gBxdm9jX7D8h+u4hh+HGp6ksU0LQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFgrxVcQbs=wSc68+GaL1jE-K4biQiT7x=ydv3BT_Lit8Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Jan 14, 2016 at 12:14 AM, Stephen Van Sickle <sjv2006 at gmail.com>
wrote:

>
> On Jan 13, 2016 13:14, "Rafal Smigrodzki" <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> >Why make an effort only to look like a weirdo in a communication?
>
> Looking like a weirdo is its own reward!
>

### Ugh, you're a weirdo! :)

Rafa?
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Jan 14 20:14:54 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 14 Jan 2016 14:14:54 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Fwd: need a new word/suffix
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFgrxVcQbs=wSc68+GaL1jE-K4biQiT7x=ydv3BT_Lit8Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEawk3cFHk_j=WedOtiywAqB+Ne-_715Hrq74FJuGjAuFA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5694BE2E.3090906@infinitefaculty.org> <5694D923.8080008@aleph.se>
 <5694DD00.6000202@infinitefaculty.org> <5694EE6D.10709@aleph.se>
 <5694FB60.8090407@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00c501d14d50$710c02b0$53240810$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEawAiTYQ263328XkcJD=M3e1rkZss+afxWEKro4ii_=zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <013901d14d69$a503ce90$ef0b6bb0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJhVn5tSNut-isrWR1HNDaFddGibxQXwfyXuOoFyTiPdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEaXAKLHCd0=pnmC31_=MCkac4fs71SSaK5daabFehwKkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFjXjJj6S=M25edP-5ZhBybinwJBE8LjqTuohf6CdCmZHA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CADYziYCAXdZ_1W9JApYXD5rd2R2UKw0tQ_oxHkdumb0FuxY5_Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg-EkD+w=-zS+Oc46gBxdm9jX7D8h+u4hh+HGp6ksU0LQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFgrxVcQbs=wSc68+GaL1jE-K4biQiT7x=ydv3BT_Lit8Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZ8d2PpTb9aQfhCkvsWkAArm8keYgtFyUaBmb8R+i843g@mail.gmail.com>

All well and good, but not looking like a weirdo but being one is far more
subtle and effective.  bill w

On Thu, Jan 14, 2016 at 1:32 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> On Thu, Jan 14, 2016 at 12:14 AM, Stephen Van Sickle <sjv2006 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>>
>> On Jan 13, 2016 13:14, "Rafal Smigrodzki" <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> >Why make an effort only to look like a weirdo in a communication?
>>
>> Looking like a weirdo is its own reward!
>>
>
> ### Ugh, you're a weirdo! :)
>
> Rafa?
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From spike66 at att.net  Fri Jan 15 00:53:37 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 14 Jan 2016 16:53:37 -0800
Subject: [ExI] robot car racing
Message-ID: <006e01d14f2f$2c23dca0$846b95e0$@att.net>

Cool!  Our wish has been granted by the geni of technology:

 

http://futurism.com/links/formula-e-to-hold-global-driverless-roborace-champ
ionship-2/

 

Oh this sounds like fun.

 

spike

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From spike66 at att.net  Sat Jan 16 04:43:41 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 15 Jan 2016 20:43:41 -0800
Subject: [ExI] paranoia risk
Message-ID: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>

 

 

I was just reading Sal Khan's book and saw a mention of a game called
Paranoia Risk, which is like normal Risk, but with a fun twist: each player
has one other player, randomly chosen by deal of cards, who they must
exterminate completely to win.  Each player knows who she is trying to slay,
but she doesn't know who is stalking her own ass.  Each player also knows
she cannot eliminate any player who isn't her own prey, otherwise it causes
someone else to win.  You might protect a weakling who isn't one's own prey,
only to find out that weakling is one's own predator.  Cool!

 

Six-player Risk in the standard form has a fundamental problem: endgames are
generally uninteresting.  It ends up being a huge tedious slugfest between
two players long after the others are eliminated.  The Paranoia version
sounds tense and interesting with all players in the game right up until
someone attempts a fatal final attack, which might fail and leave her
vulnerable for whoever is her predator.

 

It would be even cooler to come up with a means of betting on the game by a
crowd of non-participating observers, who don't know but draw inferences on
who is stalking whom based on the behavior of the players.

 

Anders, you are in the epicenter of coolness there in Oxford.  Do you know
of people playing Paranoia Risk, or clubs?  Are there online groups playing?

 

spike

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From anders at aleph.se  Sat Jan 16 11:30:58 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 11:30:58 +0000
Subject: [ExI] paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
References: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
Message-ID: <569A29F2.9060504@aleph.se>

On 2016-01-16 04:43, spike wrote:
>
> Anders, you are in the epicenter of coolness there in Oxford. Do you 
> know of people playing Paranoia Risk, or clubs?  Are there online 
> groups playing?

Sorry, no info on Paranoia Risk.

I know there is a gaming society at the university. I am not part of it, 
but some of my colleagues and me play boardgames occasionally. Including 
testing out our own new games (I have the trolley problem game of moral 
dilemmas, Toby has made both a cool rabbit breeding game involving Game 
of Life, Fibonacci numbers and trading, and an amazing six player game 
of Greek mythology where the gods and heroes have independent goals). We 
also have an excellent boardgame cafe where you pay a cover charge for a 
table and then can play games from the enormous library they have.

Paranoia Risk sounds a bit like the game Lifeboat. There you play a 
character that (1) tries to survive, (2) tries to ensure the survival of 
a loved one, (3) tries to ensure a hated character dies, and (4) get 
extra points that are only worth it if you survive. Other players do not 
know who your loved and hated ones are.

Otherwise the favourite game in our group is of course Pandemic. Save 
the world from disease! Our house rules involve how to give Nobel Prize 
speeches when you eradicate a particular disease.


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Jan 16 13:25:50 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 13:25:50 +0000
Subject: [ExI] paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
References: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjUzEGce8125sLnbLoFmK8===TyU1zjp5A31hNC4FuHVw@mail.gmail.com>

On 16 January 2016 at 04:43, spike  wrote:
> I was just reading Sal Khan?s book and saw a mention of a game called
> Paranoia Risk, which is like normal Risk, but with a fun twist: each player
> has one other player, randomly chosen by deal of cards, who they must
> exterminate completely to win.  Each player knows who she is trying to slay,
> but she doesn?t know who is stalking her own ass.  Each player also knows
> she cannot eliminate any player who isn?t her own prey, otherwise it causes
> someone else to win.  You might protect a weakling who isn?t one?s own prey,
> only to find out that weakling is one?s own predator.  Cool!
>
<snip>
>

This option is in the 'Secret Missions' of the standard Risk game.
The variation is to eliminate all the other secret missions except the
6 'kill another colour' missions.

There are many variants of Risk around and many 'House Rules' versions
played among friends.

Try the 'Diplomacy' game if you want back-stabbing.  :)

BillK



From spike66 at att.net  Sat Jan 16 14:38:14 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 06:38:14 -0800
Subject: [ExI] paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <569A29F2.9060504@aleph.se>
References: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
 <569A29F2.9060504@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <002401d1506b$88e4e500$9aaeaf00$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of Anders Sandberg



>.I have the trolley problem game of moral dilemmas.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
 
 
Anders, I am deflecting from the topic a bit in response to this comment.
 
During the Trolley problem discussion(s) I kept quiet for lack of insight,
but I noticed something interesting when I discussed my personal version of
the Trolley problem with the genealogy crowd in another forum.  I have
written a software package that does systematic comparisons of cousin lists
generated from DNA tests.  It doesn't generate information exactly, but it
concentrates it in such a way that it allows a prole to see patterns
otherwise missed.  From this I can see signals come through loud and clear,
and discover things previously unknown to both me and to the person who
invites me to view their results.
 
I asked here and in the genealogy forum what should a prole do: tell what he
sees, or keep quiet?  Or something in between?
 
On this forum, the answers were all over the map, leaning towards tell.  The
consensus there was more towards when in doubt, leave it out.
 
So it occurred to me that perhaps legal principles were guiding our ethical
notions.  You made a comment recently that suggested this is a bad thing for
legalities to shape our ethics, and I agree.  In the case of the genetics
people, there was some notion that there could be legal trouble for
revealing information, but one can never be sued for doing nothing and
saying nothing.  The legal system is shaping societal ethics.
 
In the classic problem, if a bystander switches the trolley and slays one
geezer while saving ten children, she faces a brutal lawsuit.  So most
people, conflating legality with ethics, will choose to do nothing.  
 
First arrivers at an accident scene face a similar and more realistic
dilemma.  Our legal system has trained us well.  In most cases bystanders do
nothing, or at best call for help from professionals as the victims bleed
out.  Most bystanders opt for no-touch first aid.
 
That genealogy software I mentioned has become even more powerful recently,
so the question of tell or not tell is as important now as ever before.
 
spike
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sat Jan 16 15:11:12 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 09:11:12 -0600
Subject: [ExI] paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <002401d1506b$88e4e500$9aaeaf00$@att.net>
References: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
 <569A29F2.9060504@aleph.se>
 <002401d1506b$88e4e500$9aaeaf00$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZuPFTmxJCbSehJ6JjtY+aZ38RtkPUFpQjaa46edhw+vA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jan 16, 2016 at 8:38 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *Anders Sandberg
>
> *>?*I have the trolley problem game of moral dilemmas?
>
> --
>
> Dr Anders Sandberg
>
>
>
>
>
> Anders, I am deflecting from the topic a bit in response to this comment.
>
>
>
> During the Trolley problem discussion(s) I kept quiet for lack of insight, but I noticed something interesting when I discussed my personal version of the Trolley problem with the genealogy crowd in another forum.  I have written a software package that does systematic comparisons of cousin lists generated from DNA tests.  It doesn?t generate information exactly, but it concentrates it in such a way that it allows a prole to see patterns otherwise missed.  From this I can see signals come through loud and clear, and discover things previously unknown to both me and to the person who invites me to view their results.
>
>
>
> I asked here and in the genealogy forum what should a prole do: tell what he sees, or keep quiet?  Or something in between?
>
>
>
> On this forum, the answers were all over the map, leaning towards tell.  The consensus there was more towards when in doubt, leave it out.
>
>
>
> So it occurred to me that perhaps legal principles were guiding our ethical notions.  You made a comment recently that suggested this is a bad thing for legalities to shape our ethics, and I agree.  In the case of the genetics people, there was some notion that there could be legal trouble for revealing information, but one can never be sued for doing nothing and saying nothing.  The legal system is shaping societal ethics.
>
>
>
> In the classic problem, if a bystander switches the trolley and slays one geezer while saving ten children, she faces a brutal lawsuit.  So most people, conflating legality with ethics, will choose to do nothing.
>
>
>
> First arrivers at an accident scene face a similar and more realistic dilemma.  Our legal system has trained us well.  In most cases bystanders do nothing, or at best call for help from professionals as the victims bleed out.  Most bystanders opt for no-touch first aid.
>
>
>
> That genealogy software I mentioned has become even more powerful recently, so the question of tell or not tell is as important now as ever before.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
?There is a huge literature in social psych about bystanders and helping,
and I am not up on the latest.  It stemmed from the case of Kitty Genovese
(1964), who was killed, stabbed, in front of dozens of people who did
nothing, not even call the police.
There was no question of legalities - calling the police threatened no
one.  It seems that there is a spreading around of responsibility.  The
more people who are around, the fewer will do anything.  Quite a few other
variables are important and I wish I knew what they were.  bill w  ?


>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From spike66 at att.net  Sat Jan 16 15:04:07 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 07:04:07 -0800
Subject: [ExI] paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjUzEGce8125sLnbLoFmK8===TyU1zjp5A31hNC4FuHVw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjUzEGce8125sLnbLoFmK8===TyU1zjp5A31hNC4FuHVw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <002901d1506f$269647f0$73c2d7d0$@att.net>


Behalf Of BillK

>...Try the 'Diplomacy' game if you want back-stabbing.  :)

BillK


Diplomacy is a kick, if you get enough people with sufficient attention span.  This is getting harder.

I have in mind an online version of Paranoia Risk where the six players only see what the other five are doing, but then you have an undisclosed crowd of people seeing everything and betting on the outcome, Ideas Futures style.  Each bettor gets some play money as a starting point from which to buy and sell shares on who wins.  The player who wins has her shares go to a value of a dollar, the others go to nada.

Then the shares are bought, sold and traded during the game by bettors who do not know who is stalking whom, but is trying to infer this info from the actions of unknown but sophisticated players.

I am trying to work out a die share: the first player to be exterminated has her die share go to a dollar, non-first diers go to nada.  We could perhaps set up mean shares: the person closest to the average number of armies at the end of the game has her mean share go to a dollar.  We could imagine all kinds of variations, such as a gap share: the person with the biggest total difference in her number of armies at the end of the game between her and the next ranked player above and below has her gap share go to a dollar. 

We could set up investment instruments, mutual funds, risk management, hedge funds, do all that fun stuff we used to do in play money Ideas Futures before real money Ideas Futures came along which devoured all the best players and ruined our game.  Robin Hanson has shown that any play money betting game can have a real money version built on top of it with no effort, liability or involvement required on the part of the guy who set up the play money version.

spike 




From spike66 at att.net  Sat Jan 16 15:33:16 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 07:33:16 -0800
Subject: [ExI] trolley problem and doing nothing. was:  RE:  paranoia risk
Message-ID: <003e01d15073$395296b0$abf7c410$@att.net>

 

 

>? On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace



>? case of Kitty Genovese (1964), who was killed, stabbed, in front of dozens of people who did nothing, not even call the police.  

There was no question of legalities - calling the police threatened no one. bill w  ?

 

 

BillW, on the contrary sir.

 

I don?t know in this particular case if calling the constables would have resulted in personal risk to whoever made the call, but in many modern situations I would assume it.

 

The Genovese case was about personal responsibility or even personal risk so much as spreading of responsibility.  Given sufficient numbers of able-bodied witnesses, no one does anything.

 

I was involved in something analogous to that.  I personally witnessed a security violation, along with about twenty others.  I was one of the lower ranking people present.  No one reported it.  Months later, someone mentioned it to the head of security for that facility, who was most annoyed with all of us.  He made us review security procedures in an hour long course on our own time.  Had it been five in the room, good chance all five would have reported.  In that case, there was zero risk of retribution and zero chance of commendation for reporting.

 

Regarding the Genovese case, I can imagine neighborhoods where bad things happen and the local constabulary are never invited.

 

spike

 

 

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sat Jan 16 15:55:48 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 09:55:48 -0600
Subject: [ExI] trolley problem and doing nothing. was: RE: paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <003e01d15073$395296b0$abf7c410$@att.net>
References: <003e01d15073$395296b0$abf7c410$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZbqubGR2XjDs8EUBWYHhvndUT-RfKtFy6ZoAF5LM1nyA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jan 16, 2016 at 9:33 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *>?* *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace
>
> >? case of Kitty Genovese (1964), who was killed, stabbed, in front of
> dozens of people who did nothing, not even call the police.
>
> There was no question of legalities - calling the police threatened no
> one. bill w  ?
>
>
>
>
>
> BillW, on the contrary sir.
>
>
>
> I don?t know in this particular case if calling the constables would have
> resulted in personal risk to whoever made the call, but in many modern
> situations I would assume it.
>
>
>
> The Genovese case was about personal responsibility or even personal risk
> so much as spreading of responsibility.  Given sufficient numbers of
> able-bodied witnesses, no one does anything.
>
>
>
> I was involved in something analogous to that.  I personally witnessed a
> security violation, along with about twenty others.  I was one of the lower
> ranking people present.  No one reported it.  Months later, someone
> mentioned it to the head of security for that facility, who was most
> annoyed with all of us.  He made us review security procedures in an hour
> long course on our own time.  Had it been five in the room, good chance all
> five would have reported.  In that case, there was zero risk of retribution
> and zero chance of commendation for reporting.
>
>
>
> Regarding the Genovese case, I can imagine neighborhoods where bad things
> happen and the local constabulary are never invited.
>
>
>
> spike
>

?Yes, today one's telephone number is not a private thing.

But your situation is not analogous.  Yours was a whistleblower situation,
and there's a long line of feelings about that - ratting one another out
goes back to preschool situations.  Whistleblowers get fired and shunned
and need actual laws to protect them.This doesn't qualify as a Good
Samaritan situation.  bill w?


>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Jan 16 19:39:39 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 11:39:39 -0800
Subject: [ExI] paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
References: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ_H2Dxr=KR7Rg9pSVXFA14Ti5VbEk0iRhnjYO91TjmLw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Jan 15, 2016 at 8:43 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Do you know of people playing Paranoia Risk, or clubs?  Are there online
> groups playing?
>

http://www.conquerclub.com/ - they call it "Assassin" mode.  (They've got
all kinds of other variants too.)

I am at the moment in a couple tournaments of games of that mode, and doing
not-too-shabbily.  I'd link you to them, but the tournament pages require
that you be logged in, and thus have an account.  It's a free reg if you
want to try it out, though you have to play a few games of normal settings
- to prove that you are probably going to actually play games you sign up
for - before they let you at the advanced modes.  (There's also a paid-for
version; free accounts can only be in 4 games at a time, can't do speed
games though you can have the effect of speed games if everyone's around at
the same time, and a few other such restrictions.  It's a popular enough
site that they need money to pay for hosting, but they don't need or take
much so far as I can tell.)
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From anders at aleph.se  Sat Jan 16 19:50:42 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 19:50:42 +0000
Subject: [ExI] trolley problem and doing nothing. was: RE: paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <003e01d15073$395296b0$abf7c410$@att.net>
References: <003e01d15073$395296b0$abf7c410$@att.net>
Message-ID: <569A9F12.90906@aleph.se>

The Kitty Genovese case has become a bit of a myth; the real story is as 
always a bit more ambiguous. But "Diffusion of Responsibility" is a very 
real thing, and deeply problematic. If you are in trouble and a group 
looks on helplessly, point at one of them and say: "You: help me." That 
breaks the symmetry. Official first responders also tend to do it even 
in off-duty.

Generally the acts/omission distinction has produced reams of ethical 
arguments. While philosophically and sometimes legally it doesn't make 
sense, it clearly influences how people actually act. Real-world fears 
of legal effects can be controlled for in trolley examples, but the 
difference still remains. But that doesn't make peoples behavioral bias 
the correct way of acting.



On 2016-01-16 15:33, spike wrote:
>
> *>?**On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace
>
> >?case of Kitty Genovese (1964), who was killed, stabbed, in front of 
> dozens of people who did nothing, not even call the police.
>
> There was no question of legalities - calling the police threatened no 
> one. bill w ?
>
> BillW, on the contrary sir.
>
> I don?t know in this particular case if calling the constables would 
> have resulted in personal risk to whoever made the call, but in many 
> modern situations I would assume it.
>
> The Genovese case was about personal responsibility or even personal 
> risk so much as spreading of responsibility.  Given sufficient numbers 
> of able-bodied witnesses, no one does anything.
>
> I was involved in something analogous to that.  I personally witnessed 
> a security violation, along with about twenty others.  I was one of 
> the lower ranking people present.  No one reported it. Months later, 
> someone mentioned it to the head of security for that facility, who 
> was most annoyed with all of us.  He made us review security 
> procedures in an hour long course on our own time.  Had it been five 
> in the room, good chance all five would have reported.  In that case, 
> there was zero risk of retribution and zero chance of commendation for 
> reporting.
>
> Regarding the Genovese case, I can imagine neighborhoods where bad 
> things happen and the local constabulary are never invited.
>
> spike
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Jan 16 20:09:33 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 12:09:33 -0800
Subject: [ExI] paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <002901d1506f$269647f0$73c2d7d0$@att.net>
References: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjUzEGce8125sLnbLoFmK8===TyU1zjp5A31hNC4FuHVw@mail.gmail.com>
 <002901d1506f$269647f0$73c2d7d0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSVRU4twV7oQDH7TGwq9m3cTzuor5hsJT75ZNvgNWp+6g@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jan 16, 2016 at 7:04 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Diplomacy is a kick, if you get enough people with sufficient attention
> span.  This is getting harder.
>

Or do online versions.  I know there was one a few years ago, but too often
it devolved to the gunboat version because nobody was willing to talk to
anyone else...except there'd often be a couple players who did talk, and of
course in 6 games where 2 specific players talk and the other 5 don't, you
can expect on average those 2 players will win 3 each and the other 5 get
nothing.  Even when I tried talking I'd get no response, so I was never
able to be one of those 2.

I have in mind an online version of Paranoia Risk where the six players
> only see what the other five are doing, but then you have an undisclosed
> crowd of people seeing everything and betting on the outcome, Ideas Futures
> style.


That Conquer Club I mentioned has a "fog of war" mode, which can be applied
alongside or separately from Assassin mode.  You only see your pieces and
those you can attack.  Spectators, having no pieces, only get summary
information.  https://www.conquerclub.com/game.php?game=16240045 is one Fog
game that I'm in, though that's not an Assassin game.  (Given what you know
about me, you may be able to guess what my handle is over there.  If not,
the above paragraph about online Diplomacy has a hint which also applies to
what a non-logged-in person can see on this game's page.)

They have modeled what you suggest.  Unfortunately, in far too many cases,
someone created a sock puppet that was "someone else", infiltrated the pool
of people able to see everything, and communicated outside the site's
control (by being the same person in truth) to one of the players.  There
does not seem to be a practical way to prevent this.  (Emphasis:
"practical", given that any remotely realistic game site will never be able
to justify the kind of intrusive total control needed to even come close to
preventing such dual-identity shenanigans, or simply having a trusted
offline confederate.)
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From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Jan 16 20:28:57 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 12:28:57 -0800
Subject: [ExI] paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <002901d1506f$269647f0$73c2d7d0$@att.net>
References: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjUzEGce8125sLnbLoFmK8===TyU1zjp5A31hNC4FuHVw@mail.gmail.com>
 <002901d1506f$269647f0$73c2d7d0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSvCethWNQjfVDTP0_TtUkCKaatu70vYhuf89CWp316_Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jan 16, 2016 at 7:04 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Each bettor gets some play money as a starting point from which to buy and
> sell shares on who wins.


If you want a better example of a gambling-worthy game on that site,
https://www.conquerclub.com/game.php?game=16270526 just started.  I'm not
going to spoil what's special about that game yet, but - trust me, Spike,
check out that link (preferably within the next 24 hours, before more than
a few turns pass).  I'm pretty sure it'll blow your mind.  ;)
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From spike66 at att.net  Sun Jan 17 00:04:58 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 16:04:58 -0800
Subject: [ExI] paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQ_H2Dxr=KR7Rg9pSVXFA14Ti5VbEk0iRhnjYO91TjmLw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNQ_H2Dxr=KR7Rg9pSVXFA14Ti5VbEk0iRhnjYO91TjmLw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <004001d150ba$b5875760$20960620$@att.net>

 

 

>? On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Subject: Re: [ExI] paranoia risk

 

On Fri, Jan 15, 2016 at 8:43 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net <mailto:spike66 at att.net> > wrote:

Do you know of people playing Paranoia Risk, or clubs?  Are there online groups playing?

 

>?http://www.conquerclub.com/ - they call it "Assassin" mode.  (They've got all kinds of other variants too.)

 

OK cool.  Is there a mode you know of where you can get six good anonymous players, such that none of the players know who the other five are, one turn per day, set up so that the betting public can watch the moves but cannot contact the players?  Reasoning: we would need to eliminate or minimize the possibility some yahoo could infer from green?s actions that she is stalking orange, where orange is adjacent to red, then buy up a bunch of green shares, contact and offer red a thousand (real life) bucks to nuke orange.  If that were to happen, everyone would know there was cheating, for red knew that orange was not her prey, so it is clear she threw the game.  Then no one would gamble after that.

 

Question Assassin Risk fans: how could we set it so that it would be difficult for bettors to try to contact players?  

 

Question 2:  Could we write software to play assassin mode Risk?  I don?t see why not.  Current software Risk players have differing personalities.  We should be able to take existing Risk software and modify it to play assassins, ja?  Then we could offer the developers a share of the total betting, to compel them to write their software in a way that would interest gamblers.

 

spike 

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From spike66 at att.net  Sun Jan 17 00:10:12 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 16:10:12 -0800
Subject: [ExI] paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNSvCethWNQjfVDTP0_TtUkCKaatu70vYhuf89CWp316_Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjUzEGce8125sLnbLoFmK8===TyU1zjp5A31hNC4FuHVw@mail.gmail.com>
 <002901d1506f$269647f0$73c2d7d0$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNSvCethWNQjfVDTP0_TtUkCKaatu70vYhuf89CWp316_Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <004d01d150bb$70027250$500756f0$@att.net>

 

>? On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Subject: Re: [ExI] paranoia risk

 

On Sat, Jan 16, 2016 at 7:04 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net <mailto:spike66 at att.net> > wrote:

Each bettor gets some play money as a starting point from which to buy and sell shares on who wins.

 

>?If you want a better example of a gambling-worthy game on that site, https://www.conquerclub.com/game.php?game=16270526 just started.  I'm not going to spoil what's special about that game yet, but - trust me, Spike, check out that link (preferably within the next 24 hours, before more than a few turns pass).  I'm pretty sure it'll blow your mind.  ;)

 

 

Oh, very cool, cool indeed.  Thanks for the link.  spike

 

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From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Jan 17 00:31:33 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 16:31:33 -0800
Subject: [ExI] paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <004001d150ba$b5875760$20960620$@att.net>
References: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNQ_H2Dxr=KR7Rg9pSVXFA14Ti5VbEk0iRhnjYO91TjmLw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004001d150ba$b5875760$20960620$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTdBYE1egdOPynZnw2iFpnb6GxOCxSLmq60qew+_y8tmQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jan 16, 2016 at 4:04 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> *>?* *On Behalf Of *Adrian Tymes
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] paranoia risk
>
>
>
> On Fri, Jan 15, 2016 at 8:43 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
> Do you know of people playing Paranoia Risk, or clubs?  Are there online
> groups playing?
>
>
>
> >?http://www.conquerclub.com/ - they call it "Assassin" mode.  (They've
> got all kinds of other variants too.)
>
>
>
> OK cool.  Is there a mode you know of where you can get six good anonymous
> players, such that none of the players know who the other five are, one
> turn per day, set up so that the betting public can watch the moves but
> cannot contact the players?
>

Everything except "cannot contact the players".  Everyone on there is IDed
by handle only, so by default they're anonymous to one another.  The
standard rules are that each player has 24 hours from the time it becomes
their turn to play their turn, and Simultaneous mode means that it's
everyone's turn at once (so play order is entirely determined by when
people log on and play); this isn't literally "one turn per day" because
it's the next turn as soon as everyone's done, but probably close enough.

However...there is no known way, short of extensive intrusion into the
players' offline lives, to prevent a human player from having a confederate
(or alternate identity) among the betting public.  That is simply not
within the realm of theoretical capability, given people and Web sites as
they are today.  (Note that "short of": one can imagine a police state
operating around such a game, and there have been stories written about
societies similar to that, but that is not the world we live in today.)

Question 2:  Could we write software to play assassin mode Risk?
>

Yes.  Conquer Club in fact has written bots to play Risk in many modes; I
forget if they specifically are capable of doing Assassin mode, but the
proof of concept is close enough.  If the players are not people, then the
scheme you envision could perhaps be done...but that also removes a lot of
the attraction from the betting public.  (Seriously: two people rolling
dice against each other draws more audience than two identically programmed
robots rolling dice against each other.)
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From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Jan 17 00:36:03 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 16:36:03 -0800
Subject: [ExI] paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <004d01d150bb$70027250$500756f0$@att.net>
References: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjUzEGce8125sLnbLoFmK8===TyU1zjp5A31hNC4FuHVw@mail.gmail.com>
 <002901d1506f$269647f0$73c2d7d0$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNSvCethWNQjfVDTP0_TtUkCKaatu70vYhuf89CWp316_Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <004d01d150bb$70027250$500756f0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSKawSwnr1P1MVK2f6sNGPPp8xpgV5xwWLc-g9PLJSE6g@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jan 16, 2016 at 4:10 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Oh, very cool, cool indeed.  Thanks for the link.  spike
>

If I've perked your interest, their lowest-level bot is available even to
newly registered players IIRC.  That is: a game against CoachBot is
essentially their tutorial on the specifics and quirks of how Risk works on
their site.

Of course, I could play you too if you want, but it's probably more
convenient (and may more thoroughly sate your curiosity) for you to play a
tutorial against the bot first.
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From spike66 at att.net  Sun Jan 17 00:42:45 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2016 16:42:45 -0800
Subject: [ExI] paranoia risk
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNSKawSwnr1P1MVK2f6sNGPPp8xpgV5xwWLc-g9PLJSE6g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000801d15018$7a55b710$6f012530$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjUzEGce8125sLnbLoFmK8===TyU1zjp5A31hNC4FuHVw@mail.gmail.com>
 <002901d1506f$269647f0$73c2d7d0$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNSvCethWNQjfVDTP0_TtUkCKaatu70vYhuf89CWp316_Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <004d01d150bb$70027250$500756f0$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNSKawSwnr1P1MVK2f6sNGPPp8xpgV5xwWLc-g9PLJSE6g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <008501d150bf$fc459810$f4d0c830$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Sent: Saturday, January 16, 2016 4:36 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] paranoia risk

 

On Sat, Jan 16, 2016 at 4:10 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net <mailto:spike66 at att.net> > wrote:

Oh, very cool, cool indeed.  Thanks for the link.  spike

 

If I've perked your interest, their lowest-level bot is available even to newly registered players IIRC.  That is: a game against CoachBot is essentially their tutorial on the specifics and quirks of how Risk works on their site.

Of course, I could play you too if you want, but it's probably more convenient (and may more thoroughly sate your curiosity) for you to play a tutorial against the bot first.

 

 

Thanks.  I will likely just get an account and watch for a while.  I lurked quietly on ExI for over a year before I actually posted anything or did anything, back in about 1995.  It is astonishing to think it has been over 20 years.  I have a lot of arns in the farr to get involved in something new at the moment, but when the Khan Academy LearnStorm Challenge is in the rearview mirror, I should have a good overview of where to go with it.

 

spike

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From giulio at gmail.com  Mon Jan 18 08:58:42 2016
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Mon, 18 Jan 2016 09:58:42 +0100
Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?Review_of_=E2=80=98Against_Transhumanism=E2=80=99?=
	=?utf-8?q?_by_Richard_Jones?=
Message-ID: <CAKTCJyc2+Svo+SXYTAm0kTV=6y=gTgTLa1VG6hNna-Q2+kt50A@mail.gmail.com>

Review of ?Against Transhumanism? by Richard Jones

Physicist Richard Jones, author of the (highly recommended)
nanotechnology book ?Soft Machines: nanotechnology and life? and
editor of the Soft Machines blog, has written a short book
provocatively titled ?Against Transhumanism ? The delusion of
technological transcendence.? The book, an edited compilation of
essays previously published on Soft Machines and IEEE Spectrum, is
free to download...

http://turingchurch.com/2016/01/18/review-of-against-transhumanism-by-richard-jones/



From giulio at gmail.com  Wed Jan 20 08:14:22 2016
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Wed, 20 Jan 2016 09:14:22 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Nanotech stocks
Message-ID: <CAKTCJye0EYxugwcNZ=fsyukhbzuepSMMesfG3vM+VbAgDmdnJA@mail.gmail.com>

I am working on an article on nanotech stocks. The first DNA nanobot
trial in a human subject will take place in 2016 and is likely to
stimulate a new wave of investment interest in nanotech:
http://investingnews.com/daily/life-science-investing/medical-device-investing/dna-nanobots-to-target-cancer-cells-in-first-human-trial/

It isn't clear which public biotech companies are involved in the
trial or well positioned to benefit from the media coverage that would
follow successful results.

Question: what are the most promising tech stocks for those who will
want to invest in nanotech after reading the DNA nanobots story?


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Wed Jan 20 17:52:48 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Wed, 20 Jan 2016 12:52:48 -0500
Subject: [ExI] New prime number found
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3bqwa9dL=z--w_MAiQc5m=SKTcgsFewDhH3TPBmq=f=A@mail.gmail.com>

The largest known prime number has just been found, 2^74207281 -1 is prime;
it starts off as 300376 carries on for a bit and then concludes with
436351. I omitted the middle bit because the entire number is 22,338,618
digits long.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2016/01/20/the-newest-prime-number-is-more-than-22-million-digits-long/

  John K Clark
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From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Jan 20 18:27:02 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 20 Jan 2016 18:27:02 +0000
Subject: [ExI] New prime number found
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3bqwa9dL=z--w_MAiQc5m=SKTcgsFewDhH3TPBmq=f=A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3bqwa9dL=z--w_MAiQc5m=SKTcgsFewDhH3TPBmq=f=A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjpxvy+=q_gHxaEsEoUua7NbhKVcCAzi3kurd5HqvJ9BA@mail.gmail.com>

On 20 January 2016 at 17:52, John Clark  wrote:
> The largest known prime number has just been found, 2^74207281 -1 is prime;
> it starts off as 300376 carries on for a bit and then concludes with 436351.
> I omitted the middle bit because the entire number is 22,338,618 digits
> long.
>
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2016/01/20/the-newest-prime-number-is-more-than-22-million-digits-long/
>
>

Great! I'll use it as my password.
(Changing a couple of digits for security).  :)

BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Wed Jan 20 18:37:29 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 20 Jan 2016 10:37:29 -0800
Subject: [ExI] New prime number found
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3bqwa9dL=z--w_MAiQc5m=SKTcgsFewDhH3TPBmq=f=A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3bqwa9dL=z--w_MAiQc5m=SKTcgsFewDhH3TPBmq=f=A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <002601d153b1$9f8315e0$de8941a0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark
Sent: Wednesday, January 20, 2016 9:53 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: [ExI] New prime number found

 

>?The largest known prime number has just been found, 2^74207281 -1 is prime; it starts off as 300376 carries on for a bit and then concludes with 436351. I omitted the middle bit because the entire number is 22,338,618 digits long?

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2016/01/20/the-newest-prime-number-is-more-than-22-million-digits-long/

 

 >? John K Clark

 

John, you could have given us the entire number expressed in binary.  But I suppose 8 thousand pages of nothing but 1s would be boring.  I would counter-propose expressing it in hex, so it would be a couple hundred pages of Fs.

 

Cool thanks for the heads up.  I heard when it was discovered but with a number that size it really is important to wait for a verification.  The discovery came on the 20th anniversary of GIMPS, the Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search.

 

spike

 

 

 

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From msd001 at gmail.com  Wed Jan 20 19:17:43 2016
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Wed, 20 Jan 2016 14:17:43 -0500
Subject: [ExI] New prime number found
In-Reply-To: <002601d153b1$9f8315e0$de8941a0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3bqwa9dL=z--w_MAiQc5m=SKTcgsFewDhH3TPBmq=f=A@mail.gmail.com>
 <002601d153b1$9f8315e0$de8941a0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbJ_625D39vVcyqXHS4zJzH_s+U7wkkR5nV9J=NdDEN66w@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Jan 20, 2016 at 1:37 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> Cool thanks for the heads up.  I heard when it was discovered but with a
> number that size it really is important to wait for a verification.  The
> discovery came on the 20th anniversary of GIMPS, the Great Internet Mersenne
> Prime Search.

So was that occurrence in the normal/expected frequency?

Has the current to-be-famous nerd been sitting on this one so that it
could be released for the 20th anniversary?  (per your suspicion that
said nerds get kudos for these things)

Well i guess those aliens that fear us for our comprehensive knowledge
of prime numbers will be slightly more afraid now that we've added
another to the arsenal?

:p


From spike66 at att.net  Wed Jan 20 20:16:08 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 20 Jan 2016 12:16:08 -0800
Subject: [ExI] [Bulk] Re:  New prime number found
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbJ_625D39vVcyqXHS4zJzH_s+U7wkkR5nV9J=NdDEN66w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3bqwa9dL=z--w_MAiQc5m=SKTcgsFewDhH3TPBmq=f=A@mail.gmail.com>
 <002601d153b1$9f8315e0$de8941a0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJ_625D39vVcyqXHS4zJzH_s+U7wkkR5nV9J=NdDEN66w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <006d01d153bf$66ed9440$34c8bcc0$@att.net>

 

 

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of Mike Dougherty
Sent: Wednesday, January 20, 2016 11:18 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: [Bulk] Re: [ExI] New prime number found

 

On Wed, Jan 20, 2016 at 1:37 PM, spike < <mailto:spike66 at att.net>
spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Cool thanks for the heads up.  I heard when it was discovered but with 

> a number that size it really is important to wait for a verification.  

> The discovery came on the 20th anniversary of GIMPS, the Great 

> Internet Mersenne Prime Search.

 

>>.So was that occurrence in the normal/expected frequency?

 

 

 

The signal remains consistent and shows that cumulative probability theory
works..

 

I plotted log doubling time for the largest known prime against date.  For
the last nearly 20 years since the start of GIMPS, that doubling time is
staying in the 5 to 10 second range, as shown:

 

 



 

The doubling time since the previous record on 25 Jan 2013 is 5.7 seconds.
The size of the largest known prime number has doubled every 5.7 seconds for
the past 3 yrs.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Wed Jan 20 20:57:06 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Wed, 20 Jan 2016 21:57:06 +0100
Subject: [ExI] [Bulk] Re: New prime number found
In-Reply-To: <006d01d153bf$66ed9440$34c8bcc0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3bqwa9dL=z--w_MAiQc5m=SKTcgsFewDhH3TPBmq=f=A@mail.gmail.com>
 <002601d153b1$9f8315e0$de8941a0$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbJ_625D39vVcyqXHS4zJzH_s+U7wkkR5nV9J=NdDEN66w@mail.gmail.com>
 <006d01d153bf$66ed9440$34c8bcc0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFTDcppRteTX132f=YWBJfK9ChooLdVimbUs8WjCB-gtpQ@mail.gmail.com>

A remarkable observation, Spike. Remarkable indeed.

On Wed, Jan 20, 2016 at 9:16 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On
> Behalf Of Mike Dougherty
> Sent: Wednesday, January 20, 2016 11:18 AM
> To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Subject: [Bulk] Re: [ExI] New prime number found
>
>
>
> On Wed, Jan 20, 2016 at 1:37 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
> > Cool thanks for the heads up.  I heard when it was discovered but with
>
> > a number that size it really is important to wait for a verification.
>
> > The discovery came on the 20th anniversary of GIMPS, the Great
>
> > Internet Mersenne Prime Search.
>
>
>
> >>?So was that occurrence in the normal/expected frequency?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> The signal remains consistent and shows that cumulative probability theory
> works..
>
>
>
> I plotted log doubling time for the largest known prime against date.  For
> the last nearly 20 years since the start of GIMPS, that doubling time is
> staying in the 5 to 10 second range, as shown:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> The doubling time since the previous record on 25 Jan 2013 is 5.7
> seconds.  The size of the largest known prime number has doubled every 5.7
> seconds for the past 3 yrs.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From spike66 at att.net  Wed Jan 20 22:36:55 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 20 Jan 2016 14:36:55 -0800
Subject: [ExI] new ninth?
Message-ID: <00cd01d153d3$11983e50$34c8baf0$@att.net>

 

OK so we slew one of our planets.  Perhaps we can get a replacement:

 

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/01/feature-astronomers-say-neptune-sized
-planet-lurks-unseen-solar-system

 

Cool!

 

spike

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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Thu Jan 21 17:35:42 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Thu, 21 Jan 2016 09:35:42 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
Message-ID: <50E382FD-7FF7-4229-9930-BA92677D9718@gmail.com>

http://phys.org/news/2016-01-aliens-silent-theyre-dead.html

The problem is to accurately judge whether this is enough and not too much.

I was also thinking about Medea Hypothesis in relation to this. That wouldn't be a bottleneck, but a deadly positive feedback loop. Then again, I guess you could say each Medean event was a bottleneck. See:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medea_hypothesis

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From natasha at natasha.cc  Fri Jan 22 02:23:55 2016
From: natasha at natasha.cc (natasha at natasha.cc)
Date: Thu, 21 Jan 2016 19:23:55 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Smalley vs. Drexler & 3 Dimensions
Message-ID: <017101d154bb$f1761400$d4623c00$@natasha.cc>

Hi Everyone, 

 

One of my students ask if Drexler or anyone offered an engineering solution
to Smalley's juggling (Rotman, 1999) issue that nanorobots would have to
deal with three dimensions of control while maintaining atoms? Students are
having a fascinating discussion on the seminal debate and I simply don't
have knowledge on this juggling issues.

 

Many thanks,


Natasha

 

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From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Jan 22 15:37:38 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 22 Jan 2016 15:37:38 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <50E382FD-7FF7-4229-9930-BA92677D9718@gmail.com>
References: <50E382FD-7FF7-4229-9930-BA92677D9718@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjQbqhucKpp7cxRva8--ye7JLr=1UQ5Ngki7eXdrs=1aw@mail.gmail.com>

On 21 January 2016 at 17:35, Dan TheBookMan  wrote:
> http://phys.org/news/2016-01-aliens-silent-theyre-dead.html
> The problem is to accurately judge whether this is enough and not too much.
>
> I was also thinking about Medea Hypothesis in relation to this. That
> wouldn't be a bottleneck, but a deadly positive feedback loop. Then again, I
> guess you could say each Medean event was a bottleneck. See:
> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medea_hypothesis
>

Smithsonian points to dangerous radiation in the early universe.

<http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/where-are-all-aliens-taking-shelter-universes-radiation-180957901/>

Quote:
Where Are All the Aliens? Taking Shelter From the Universe's Radiation
Earlier life-forms across the cosmos may have faced thousands to
millions of times the cosmic ray dose that we do today.
A new analysis of cosmic evolution suggests that planets in the early
universe were slammed with bursts of radiation thousands to millions
of times higher than Earth has ever faced. That's because black holes
and star formation were more vigorous during these epochs, and
everything in the universe was also much closer together, allowing for
denser doses of radiation than planets face today.
---------

BillK


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Jan 22 16:26:34 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 22 Jan 2016 11:26:34 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Smalley vs. Drexler & 3 Dimensions
In-Reply-To: <017101d154bb$f1761400$d4623c00$@natasha.cc>
References: <017101d154bb$f1761400$d4623c00$@natasha.cc>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv02026rRaRJk4-4Cddy76aZirLwQj4Jy+DRLDTm959i9Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Jan 21, 2016 at 9:23 PM, <natasha at natasha.cc> wrote:

?> ?
> One of my students ask if Drexler or anyone offered an engineering
> solution to Smalley?s juggling (Rotman, 1999) issue that nanorobots would
> have to deal with three dimensions of control while maintaining atoms?
> Students are having a fascinating discussion on the seminal debate and I
> simply don?t have knowledge on this juggling issues.
>
>

*?"?The importance of the number of reactants lies in Smalley?s
argument that ?There just isn?t enough room in the nanometer-size reaction
region to accommodate all the fingers of all the manipulators necessary to
have complete control of the chemistry.? ?[...]? The argument collapses
when we observe that chemical reactions often involve two reactants, such
as in the controlled vacuum conditions used by the scanning tunneling
microscope (STM). Two reactants can be brought together with controlled
trajectories if one reactant is bound to a substrate and the second
reactant is positioned and moved by a single ?finger? as has already been
done experimentally. For example, Ho and Lee physically bound a CO molecule
to an iron atom on a silver substrate using an STM. Other approaches are
also possible, Brenner et al. provided a molecular dynamics simulation of
the hydrogen abstraction reaction from a diamond substrate.?"*

From:?


http://www.imm.org/publications/sciamdebate2/smalley/


John K Clark
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Jan 22 16:30:34 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 22 Jan 2016 11:30:34 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Smalley vs. Drexler & 3 Dimensions
In-Reply-To: <017101d154bb$f1761400$d4623c00$@natasha.cc>
References: <017101d154bb$f1761400$d4623c00$@natasha.cc>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0FemkP=mLuMXrwi1XpT2Ajq3_vKUUmEVqHLRhNjGOUww@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Jan 21, 2016 at 9:23 PM, <natasha at natasha.cc> wrote:

>
? ?
One of my students ask if Drexler or anyone offered an engineering solution
to Smalley?s juggling (Rotman, 1999) issue that nanorobots would have to
deal with three dimensions of control while maintaining atoms? Students are
having a fascinating discussion on the seminal debate and I simply don?t
have knowledge on this juggling issues.

?"
The importance of the number of reactants lies in Smalley?s argument that
?There just isn?t enough room in the nanometer-size reaction region to
accommodate all the fingers of all the manipulators necessary to have
complete control of the chemistry.? [...]
? ?
The argument collapses when we observe that chemical reactions often
involve two reactants, such as in the controlled vacuum conditions used by
the scanning tunneling microscope (STM). Two reactants can be brought
together with controlled trajectories if one reactant is bound to a
substrate and the second reactant is positioned and moved by a single
?finger? as has already been done experimentally. For example, Ho and Lee
physically bound a CO molecule to an iron atom on a silver substrate using
an STM. Other approaches are also possible, Brenner et al. provided a
molecular dynamics simulation of the hydrogen abstraction reaction from a
diamond substrate."


From:?



http://www.imm.org/publications/sciamdebate2/smalley/



John K Clark
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Fri Jan 22 17:26:24 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Fri, 22 Jan 2016 09:26:24 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Century-old tree frog rediscovered in India
Message-ID: <BAAD0162-8B6E-40C8-9183-DA11F16EFB02@gmail.com>

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/22/asia/india-tree-frog-rediscovered/index.html

Makes me wonder how many lost+found species there are out there.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From natasha at natasha.cc  Fri Jan 22 18:57:30 2016
From: natasha at natasha.cc (natasha at natasha.cc)
Date: Fri, 22 Jan 2016 11:57:30 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Smalley vs. Drexler & 3 Dimensions
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv02026rRaRJk4-4Cddy76aZirLwQj4Jy+DRLDTm959i9Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <017101d154bb$f1761400$d4623c00$@natasha.cc>
 <CAJPayv02026rRaRJk4-4Cddy76aZirLwQj4Jy+DRLDTm959i9Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <01d501d15546$bf04f5a0$3d0ee0e0$@natasha.cc>

Excellent!  Thanks John.

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark
Sent: Friday, January 22, 2016 9:27 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] Smalley vs. Drexler & 3 Dimensions

 

On Thu, Jan 21, 2016 at 9:23 PM, <natasha at natasha.cc> wrote:

 

?> ?

One of my students ask if Drexler or anyone offered an engineering solution to Smalley?s juggling (Rotman, 1999) issue that nanorobots would have to deal with three dimensions of control while maintaining atoms? Students are having a fascinating discussion on the seminal debate and I simply don?t have knowledge on this juggling issues.

 

 

?"?

The importance of the number of reactants lies in Smalley?s argument that ?There just isn?t enough room in the nanometer-size reaction region to accommodate all the fingers of all the manipulators necessary to have complete control of the chemistry.? 

?[...]?

 The argument collapses when we observe that chemical reactions often involve two reactants, such as in the controlled vacuum conditions used by the scanning tunneling microscope (STM). Two reactants can be brought together with controlled trajectories if one reactant is bound to a substrate and the second reactant is positioned and moved by a single ?finger? as has already been done experimentally. For example, Ho and Lee physically bound a CO molecule to an iron atom on a silver substrate using an STM. Other approaches are also possible, Brenner et al. provided a molecular dynamics simulation of the hydrogen abstraction reaction from a diamond substrate.

?"

 

From:?

 

 

http://www.imm.org/publications/sciamdebate2/smalley/

 

 

John K Clark

 

 

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From spike66 at att.net  Sat Jan 23 14:24:56 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 2016 06:24:56 -0800
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
Message-ID: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>

 

There is no mention in the article about this experiment being done a long
time ago.  Doctors did a monkey head transplant way back in the 60s:

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2073923-head-transplant-carried-out-on-
monkey-claims-maverick-surgeon/

 

spike

 

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From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Jan 23 16:02:24 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 2016 16:02:24 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Wolfram now teaching programming
Message-ID: <CAL_armh2i8-4nf60QV1ghCF2yd8PJ0urTUbUy79UFQcs0L+XFw@mail.gmail.com>

Wolfram Aims to Advance Programming Education
<http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/wolfram-aims-to-advance-programming-education-300207238.html>
Quote:
CHAMPAIGN, Ill., Jan. 20, 2016  -- Wolfram Research has announced a
new product for anyone to learn programming and computational
thinking: Wolfram Programming Lab. Available as a standalone software
or accessible in the browser, the Wolfram Programming Lab provides
people with no experience an avenue to begin coding.

When you code in the Wolfram Programming Lab, you are not only using
the Wolfram Language, you're also learning Mathematica: the software
used for technical courses at 90% of universities in the United
States.

"Programming doesn't have to be scary or hard. Anyone can write
programs that immediately connect to the real world and do really
interesting things," said Rob Morris, Product Manager for Wolfram
Programming Lab. "Wolfram Programming Lab is tailored specifically to
teach students coding principles and develop computational thinking
skills in a fun, engaging environment."
---------------

Also, for more detailed info:
Announcing Wolfram Programming Lab   January 19, 2016
<http://blog.stephenwolfram.com/2016/01/announcing-wolfram-programming-lab/>
Quote:
I?m excited today to be able to announce the launch of Wolfram
Programming Lab?an environment for anyone to learn programming and
computational thinking through the Wolfram Language. You can run
Wolfram Programming Lab through a web browser, as well as natively on
desktop systems (Mac, Windows, Linux).

I?ve long wanted to have a way to let anybody?kids, adults,
whoever?get a hands-on introduction to the Wolfram Language and
everything it makes possible, even if they?ve had no experience with
programming before. Now we have a way!
----------------

<https://www.wolfram.com/programming-lab/>



BillK



From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Jan 23 21:13:09 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 2016 21:13:09 +0000
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
In-Reply-To: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>
References: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjq=YUM3Kq=2JQma0kWc+VOM+QNVu6x_-bDm=mTeFh9BA@mail.gmail.com>

On 23 January 2016 at 14:24, spike  wrote:
> There is no mention in the article about this experiment being done a long
> time ago.  Doctors did a monkey head transplant way back in the 60s:
>
> https://www.newscientist.com/article/2073923-head-transplant-carried-out-on-monkey-claims-maverick-surgeon/
>


The article does say "Canavero says the experiment, which repeats the
work of Robert White in the US in 1970, demonstrates that if the head
is cooled to 15 ?C, a monkey can survive the procedure without
suffering brain injury".
But he did not reconnect the monkey spinal cord.

A South Korean is claiming to have reconnected the spinal cord in mice
transplants.
Until the mice claim, all the head transplants have only used the
replacement body as a temporary life support system. The head could
not operate the new body.

That is the next required step - to reconnect the spinal cord on a large mammal.

BillK



From spike66 at att.net  Sat Jan 23 21:28:52 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 2016 13:28:52 -0800
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjq=YUM3Kq=2JQma0kWc+VOM+QNVu6x_-bDm=mTeFh9BA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjq=YUM3Kq=2JQma0kWc+VOM+QNVu6x_-bDm=mTeFh9BA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <002001d15625$0fb4f070$2f1ed150$@att.net>

On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] head transplant again

On 23 January 2016 at 14:24, spike  wrote:
>> There is no mention in the article about this experiment being done a 
> long time ago.  Doctors did a monkey head transplant way back in the 60s:
>
> https://www.newscientist.com/article/2073923-head-transplant-carried-o
> ut-on-monkey-claims-maverick-surgeon/
>


>...The article does say "Canavero says the experiment, which repeats the work of Robert White in the US in 1970, demonstrates that if the head is cooled to 15 ?C, a monkey can survive the procedure without suffering brain injury".
But he did not reconnect the monkey spinal cord.

>...A South Korean is claiming to have reconnected the spinal cord in mice transplants.
Until the mice claim, all the head transplants have only used the replacement body as a temporary life support system. The head could not operate the new body.

>...That is the next required step - to reconnect the spinal cord on a large mammal.  BillK

_______________________________________________

Cool thanks I did miss that.  I recall reading of it when it happened, and I thought it was in 1969, so I searched on 196 and nada.

If you are stout of heart and in the mood for this sort of thing, view the Wiki page on head transplant:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_transplant

A thought occurred to me.  Plenty of people react with revulsion when they hear of the notion of head transplants.  But I don't and plenty of people here do not.  I had an advantage of sorts: I heard of head transplants when I was a child aged nine.  Children's minds are pliable and open.  Perhaps having heard of the notion then caused some kind of permanent brain dam...  rather... um... development.

spike






From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Jan 23 21:52:24 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 2016 21:52:24 +0000
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
In-Reply-To: <002001d15625$0fb4f070$2f1ed150$@att.net>
References: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjq=YUM3Kq=2JQma0kWc+VOM+QNVu6x_-bDm=mTeFh9BA@mail.gmail.com>
 <002001d15625$0fb4f070$2f1ed150$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armih6TAtX=ZHvQ2YhAtBkPrQsL-b34HUz4zNJ15v57t87g@mail.gmail.com>

On 23 January 2016 at 21:28, spike wrote:
> If you are stout of heart and in the mood for this sort of thing, view the Wiki page on head transplant:
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_transplant
>
> A thought occurred to me.  Plenty of people react with revulsion when they hear of the notion of
> head transplants.  But I don't and plenty of people here do not.  I had an advantage of sorts:
> I heard of head transplants when I was a child aged nine.  Children's minds are pliable and open.
> Perhaps having heard of the notion then caused some kind of permanent brain dam...  rather..
> um... development.
>


I was going to nod in agreement, but I have to be careful with the
stitches round my neck.

BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Sat Jan 23 22:25:59 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 2016 14:25:59 -0800
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armih6TAtX=ZHvQ2YhAtBkPrQsL-b34HUz4zNJ15v57t87g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjq=YUM3Kq=2JQma0kWc+VOM+QNVu6x_-bDm=mTeFh9BA@mail.gmail.com>
 <002001d15625$0fb4f070$2f1ed150$@att.net>
 <CAL_armih6TAtX=ZHvQ2YhAtBkPrQsL-b34HUz4zNJ15v57t87g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <003501d1562d$09fbd0b0$1df37210$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of BillK
Sent: Saturday, January 23, 2016 1:52 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] head transplant again

On 23 January 2016 at 21:28, spike wrote:
> If you are stout of heart and in the mood for this sort of thing, view the
Wiki page on head transplant:
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_transplant
>
>>... A thought occurred to me.  Plenty of people react with revulsion when 
> they hear of the notion of head transplants.  But I don't and plenty of
people here do not.  I had an advantage of sorts:
> I heard of head transplants when I was a child aged nine.  Children's
minds are pliable and open.
> Perhaps having heard of the notion then caused some kind of permanent
brain dam...  rather..
> um... development.
>


>...I was going to nod in agreement, but I have to be careful with the
stitches round my neck.

BillK
_______________________________________________


It was a teaching moment.  The thought occurred to me that my son is now the
age I was when I heard of the head transplant in 1970, all the way down to
the week.  So I decided to have a discussion with him about it.  He reacted
with instinctive revulsion.  But with discussion, his line of reasoning went
down the same path mine did when I was aged 9 years: I don't see why not.
The peg on my ethics-o-meter and his were both pointing to the lime-green
region.

I misspent my youth in Florida, not far from Daytona where yearly we have
Bike Week.  Seems every year we would hear of some drunken fool slamming
into some hard object on his bike and encountering the pavement head first
with destructive enthusiasm.  The result was a breathing corpse, which was
usually buried a few months or even years later.  We know there are
perfectly healthy young people with total paralysis, and some of the
paralyzed people with conditions that will slay them.  

Knowing there is a steady reliable source of otherwise undamaged bodies with
mashed frontal lobes (from Bike Week at Daytona and other sources) and
plenty of heads in desperate need of a body, I can think of no good ethical
reason to not swap the heads or bodies depending on your perspective.  The
one would enjoy improved quality of life, while the other would not know or
care.

spike 



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Sun Jan 24 02:56:13 2016
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 2016 21:56:13 -0500
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
In-Reply-To: <003501d1562d$09fbd0b0$1df37210$@att.net>
References: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjq=YUM3Kq=2JQma0kWc+VOM+QNVu6x_-bDm=mTeFh9BA@mail.gmail.com>
 <002001d15625$0fb4f070$2f1ed150$@att.net>
 <CAL_armih6TAtX=ZHvQ2YhAtBkPrQsL-b34HUz4zNJ15v57t87g@mail.gmail.com>
 <003501d1562d$09fbd0b0$1df37210$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFidtFrNx8gJDA0bKGt1tSDpY6Jktqc64Hz2kvYMQcxQ7g@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jan 23, 2016 at 5:25 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
> Knowing there is a steady reliable source of otherwise undamaged bodies
> with
> mashed frontal lobes (from Bike Week at Daytona and other sources) and
> plenty of heads in desperate need of a body, I can think of no good ethical
> reason to not swap the heads or bodies depending on your perspective.  The
> one would enjoy improved quality of life, while the other would not know or
> care.


### Well, if this source fails, there is always a chihuahua:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pvf3yBnk7E
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Jan 24 05:08:40 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016 00:08:40 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Cryonics punched cards and the brain
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2kYDDkfKT98AS96m4GNmRbmTFc_hPmL2zZEOKJxnoiMQ@mail.gmail.com>

Everybody agrees that synaptic connections between neurons are needed to
access memories, but there is reason to think those connections may not be
where memories are ultimately stored, at least not important very long term
memories. The theory that memories are stored in the strengthening of
synapses based on recent activity (Long Term Potentiation ) does a pretty
good job at explaining how memory can be retained for hours or days, but
when you get beyond a week or so there are problems because the proteins
associated with Long Term Potentiation (LTP) are not particularly stable,
and experiments with snails have shown that even when LTP has been
destroyed with chemicals the loss of memory is not always permanent. So
there must be an information storage mechanism other than the pattern of
synaptic strengths for at least some memories.

It?s been known for a long time that a mesh of proteins attached to
carbohydrates forms something called "the perineuronal net" which sheaths
mature brain neurons. And it's been known that synapses form through gaps
in the net; but very recently evidence has been found that very long term
memories, the sort that endures for an entire lifetime, may be encoded in
the holes in the perineuronal net, rather like old fashioned computers once
encoded information as holes in punched cards.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/10/mysterious-holes-neuron-net-may-help-store-long-term-memories

https://www.braindecoder.com/memory-perineuronal-nets-1418933042.html

The proteins that compose the Perineuronal Net are much more stable than
those in neurons, but when a synapse is strengthened it produces a small
amount of an enzyme that can break down the net, and if the synapse
increases a lot over a short amount of time there is enough enzyme to make
a small hole in the Perineuronal Net right next to the synapse, and the
hole seems to be permanent. Mice that have been genetically engineered
to lack this enzyme have normal short and medium term memory but very poor
long term memory. Even severe Alzheimer's disease has little effect
on Perineuronal Nets, so memory information might still exist in a
Alzheimer brain even if the synapses in it are so damaged they can no
longer be accessed  by them. It seems to me this may also be reason for
optimism regarding the success of Cryonics
?;?
 the Perineuronal Net is much tougher than neurons are and the space
between brain cells where the Perineuronal Net
?
is
?located ?
occupies 20% of brain
??
volume on average but it can get 60% larger during sleep or anesthesia
?:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/342/6156/373

?S?
o if a neuron shrinks or grows in volume during freezing that shouldn't be
something it hasn't seen before, and even if a shard of ice
?does?
?
 punch a
?meaningless ?
hole in the
?net?
 it should be obvious to a intelligent nano
?-?
machine that the hole was
?just ?
caused by ice and not by synaptic behavior because the ice would still be
sticking through it.

?  John K Clark
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From avant at sollegro.com  Sun Jan 24 06:48:42 2016
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 2016 22:48:42 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
Message-ID: <mhqrkhwiia0txxh12b7aqcn7.1453614737615@email.android.com>

The important thing to remember about bottlenecks is that they imply *something* can get through them.

On a related note, some new data on KIC 8462852 aka Tabby's Star:

http://arxiv.org/abs/1601.03256

Synopsis: The comet swarm hypothesis for the strange periodic 20 % dimming of the star just got effectively ruled out.

Examination of archival photographic plates of the star spanning much of the 20th century show that in addition to the massive periodic dips in brightness we are observing now, the star as whole has been undergoing a slow dimming over the course of the last century.

The extent of the of the dip has been measured to be about .193 magnitude over the observed span.

Thoughts? Anders?

Stuart LaForge


Sent from my phone.



From anders at aleph.se  Sun Jan 24 12:41:58 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016 12:41:58 +0000
Subject: [ExI] new ninth?
In-Reply-To: <00cd01d153d3$11983e50$34c8baf0$@att.net>
References: <00cd01d153d3$11983e50$34c8baf0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <56A4C696.5000405@aleph.se>

On 2016-01-20 22:36, spike wrote:
>
> OK so we slew one of our planets.  Perhaps we can get a replacement:
>
> http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/01/feature-astronomers-say-neptune-sized-planet-lurks-unseen-solar-system
>
>

Would it actually count as a planet? I seem to recall that the 
Pluto-killing definition includes "has cleared its orbit of planetesimals".

The authors also estimate that it might be hard to find: the peak 
probability region for where it currently is is in the direction of the 
galactic center.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From anders at aleph.se  Sun Jan 24 12:49:51 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016 12:49:51 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Cryonics punched cards and the brain
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2kYDDkfKT98AS96m4GNmRbmTFc_hPmL2zZEOKJxnoiMQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2kYDDkfKT98AS96m4GNmRbmTFc_hPmL2zZEOKJxnoiMQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56A4C86F.9060004@aleph.se>

Neat. Generally LTP is seen as the first of a longer cascade of fixation 
of memories. Most research has been about cellular skeleton changes, but 
perineuronal nets might also work.

It might actually be a good experiment for cryonics to see what the 
process does to these nets. (I think John mixed up the perioneuronal net 
(protein networks) with perineuronal space in the sleep reference. )


Incidentally, the Sejnowski lab had a nice result on the distribution of 
synaptic strengths:
Bartol, T. M. Jr. Bromer, C. Kinney, J. P. Chirillo, M. A. Bourne, J. N. 
Harris, K. M. Sejnowski, T. J. 
<http://papers.cnl.salk.edu/index.php?SearchText=Bartol%2C%20T.%20M.%20Jr.%20Bromer%2C%20C.%20Kinney%2C%20J.%20P.%20Chirillo%2C%20M.%20A.%20Bourne%2C%20J.%20N.%20Harris%2C%20K.%20M.%20Sejnowski%2C%20T.%20J.>Nanoconnectomic 
upper bound on the variability of synaptic plasticity, eLife, 4:e10778, 2015
http://papers.cnl.salk.edu/PDFs/Nanoconnectomic%20upper%20bound%20on%20the%20variability%20of%20synaptic%20plasticity%202015-4475.pdf
They show that each synapse stores at most about 4.7 bits. While their 
press material claims this is "an order of magnitude more" than previous 
estimates, the actual estimate most people have been doing is about one 
bit, so the difference isn't dramatic. But doing nanoconnectomics is an 
awesome method.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From anders at aleph.se  Sun Jan 24 12:28:43 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016 12:28:43 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <mhqrkhwiia0txxh12b7aqcn7.1453614737615@email.android.com>
References: <mhqrkhwiia0txxh12b7aqcn7.1453614737615@email.android.com>
Message-ID: <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se>

On 2016-01-24 06:48, Stuart LaForge wrote:
> The extent of the of the dip has been measured to be about .193 magnitude over the observed span.
>
> Thoughts? Anders?

Confusion. I originally argued that the star is unlikely to be a Dyson 
because of the rapid construction (or decay); the chance of seeing that 
moment in history is small:
http://aleph.se/andart2/space/likely-not-even-a-microdyson/
So I was happy with the comet hypothesis. But the dimming doesn't fit at 
all, so it has to be something stranger.

Meanwhile Phil Plait claimed the dimming was too *fast* to be Dyson 
construction, and I felt obliged to calculate some limits on Dyson 
construction:
http://aleph.se/andart2/space/what-is-the-natural-timescale-for-making-a-dyson-shell/

So what do I think it is? I suspect it is natural, but perhaps a rare 
phenomenon. Maybe there is a small and dense cloud of interstellar dust 
drifting past?


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Sun Jan 24 13:36:00 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016 14:36:00 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se>
References: <mhqrkhwiia0txxh12b7aqcn7.1453614737615@email.android.com>
 <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFSKdNsd9M3Gy4qTo-BYNhakimKN36o+G5=38s3PK2hB9A@mail.gmail.com>

> I suspect it is natural, but perhaps a rare phenomenon. Maybe there is a
small and dense cloud of interstellar dust drifting past?

This is a good explanation. Might be so.

And maybe it is a planet just went through a tidal forces grinding process.
A lot of debris spreading around the star.

On Sun, Jan 24, 2016 at 1:28 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2016-01-24 06:48, Stuart LaForge wrote:
>
>> The extent of the of the dip has been measured to be about .193 magnitude
>> over the observed span.
>>
>> Thoughts? Anders?
>>
>
> Confusion. I originally argued that the star is unlikely to be a Dyson
> because of the rapid construction (or decay); the chance of seeing that
> moment in history is small:
> http://aleph.se/andart2/space/likely-not-even-a-microdyson/
> So I was happy with the comet hypothesis. But the dimming doesn't fit at
> all, so it has to be something stranger.
>
> Meanwhile Phil Plait claimed the dimming was too *fast* to be Dyson
> construction, and I felt obliged to calculate some limits on Dyson
> construction:
>
> http://aleph.se/andart2/space/what-is-the-natural-timescale-for-making-a-dyson-shell/
>
> So what do I think it is? I suspect it is natural, but perhaps a rare
> phenomenon. Maybe there is a small and dense cloud of interstellar dust
> drifting past?
>
>
> --
> Dr Anders Sandberg
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Oxford University
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Jan 24 16:30:07 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016 11:30:07 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Cryonics punched cards and the brain
In-Reply-To: <56A4C86F.9060004@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv2kYDDkfKT98AS96m4GNmRbmTFc_hPmL2zZEOKJxnoiMQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56A4C86F.9060004@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0jx2Dx9F_DQ2yUa9wt2z_10-YxkEgBb_7ziiULVBVhDw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Jan 24, 2016 at 7:49 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

?> ?
> Neat. Generally LTP is seen as the first of a longer cascade of fixation
> of memories. Most research has been about cellular skeleton changes, but
> perineuronal nets might also work.
> It might actually be a good experiment for cryonics to see what the
> process does to these nets. (I think John mixed up the perioneuronal net
> (protein networks) with perineuronal space in the sleep reference. )
>

?
As I understand it ?
the extracellular matrix
?is?
 the space between brain cells
? and that is where the ?
perineuronal net?
?is located along with a lot of fluid, and the volume of the ?
extracellular matrix
?changes a great deal ?between sleep and wakefulness so the net must be
tough enough to resist damage even when things get crowded.  But I'm no
expert on this so I may have misunderstood.

?> ?
> Incidentally, the Sejnowski lab had a nice result on the distribution of
> synaptic strengths:
> Bartol, T. M. Jr. Bromer, C. Kinney, J. P. Chirillo, M. A. Bourne, J. N.
> Harris, K. M. Sejnowski, T. J.
> <http://papers.cnl.salk.edu/index.php?SearchText=Bartol%2C%20T.%20M.%20Jr.%20Bromer%2C%20C.%20Kinney%2C%20J.%20P.%20Chirillo%2C%20M.%20A.%20Bourne%2C%20J.%20N.%20Harris%2C%20K.%20M.%20Sejnowski%2C%20T.%20J.>
>  Nanoconnectomic upper bound on the variability of synaptic plasticity,
> eLife, 4:e10778, 2015
>
> http://papers.cnl.salk.edu/PDFs/Nanoconnectomic%20upper%20bound%20on%20the%20variability%20of%20synaptic%20plasticity%202015-4475.pdf
> They show that each synapse stores at most about 4.7 bits. While their
> press material claims this is "an order of magnitude more" than previous
> estimates, the actual estimate most people have been doing is about one
> bit, so the difference isn't dramatic. But doing nanoconnectomics is an
> awesome method.
>

?I wish we knew how much redundancy there is in the brain, biological
operations are not nearly as reliable as the electronic operations we use
in computers so I would guess there must be a lot of
redundancy
? to ensure accuracy.

 John K Clark

 ?
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Sun Jan 24 16:46:26 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016 08:46:26 -0800
Subject: [ExI] New Family-Friendly Ancient Astronaut and UFO Museum Opens
	Next to Disneyland
Message-ID: <09089164-5947-49F8-9393-597B5D53500B@gmail.com>

http://www.jasoncolavito.com/blog/new-family-friendly-ancient-astronaut-and-ufo-museum-opens-next-to-disneyland

Appropriate location? ;)

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Sun Jan 24 16:49:42 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016 08:49:42 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFSKdNsd9M3Gy4qTo-BYNhakimKN36o+G5=38s3PK2hB9A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mhqrkhwiia0txxh12b7aqcn7.1453614737615@email.android.com>
 <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se>
 <CALMrAFSKdNsd9M3Gy4qTo-BYNhakimKN36o+G5=38s3PK2hB9A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <94F9565C-91E2-481D-88F2-59DEF5AE4CE5@gmail.com>

On Jan 24, 2016, at 5:36 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> > I suspect it is natural, but perhaps a rare phenomenon. Maybe there is a small and dense cloud of interstellar dust drifting past?
> 
> This is a good explanation. Might be so.
> 
> And maybe it is a planet just went through a tidal forces grinding process. A lot of debris spreading around the star.

What would be the odds of catching that at its current stage?

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From spike66 at att.net  Sun Jan 24 17:19:17 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016 09:19:17 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se>
References: <mhqrkhwiia0txxh12b7aqcn7.1453614737615@email.android.com>
 <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <008101d156cb$5ba513b0$12ef3b10$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of Anders Sandberg
Sent: Sunday, January 24, 2016 4:29 AM
To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
Subject: Re: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck

On 2016-01-24 06:48, Stuart LaForge wrote:
> The extent of the of the dip has been measured to be about .193 magnitude
over the observed span.
>
> Thoughts? Anders?

>>...Confusion. 

Me too, oy vey.

>>...Meanwhile Phil Plait claimed the dimming was too *fast* to be Dyson
construction, and I felt obliged to calculate some limits on Dyson
construction:
http://aleph.se/andart2/space/what-is-the-natural-timescale-for-making-a-dys
on-shell/

Ja.  Before it becomes a viable notion to create a Dyson shell or MBrain,
the builders would already need replicating assemblers (we might think.)
Alternative: without replicating assemblers, the progress on the MBrain
would be too slow to map a change on our timescale.  Second alternative:
construction on the MBrain began, then the replicating assembler was
discovered, at which time the transition (causing the dimming) kicked into
high gear.  Problem: that we should happen to catch that transition in
progress is quite unlikely.

>>...So what do I think it is? I suspect it is natural, but perhaps a rare
phenomenon. Maybe there is a small and dense cloud of interstellar dust
drifting past? -- Dr Anders Sandberg
_______________________________________________

Ja, as much as I would like to jump up and down and point to an MBrain in
the process of being built, it is far easier for me to imagine not an
interstellar dust cloud but a huge dust cloud in the gravity well of this
star.  It could span a tenth of a radian of arc from the point of view of
the star and be far enough out to have a several tens of thousands year
orbit.  Then it could take a couple centuries to transit. and we just
happened to be here in the line of sight when it began to transit.

Considering the multiple possible orbit planes, this scenario would be
extremely rare, but if the phenomenon of a dust cloud a light month in
diameter is physically possible (that too strains the imagination) then
there would be a lot of them out there, and this is the first one we were
lucky enough to find one.  My task now is to calculate to see if it is at
all reasonable to hypothesize a dust cloud a light-month in diameter to see
if it would be gravitationally stable and estimate how it would block light.


Even as I write about it, that enormous dust cloud scenario is making my
puzzler sore.  It doesn't seem right at all.  We would need a lot of angular
momentum to keep it even a vaguely stable, and I am having a hard time
imagining where all that angular momentum would have come from.

spike



From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Jan 24 18:22:39 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016 18:22:39 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <008101d156cb$5ba513b0$12ef3b10$@att.net>
References: <mhqrkhwiia0txxh12b7aqcn7.1453614737615@email.android.com>
 <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se> <008101d156cb$5ba513b0$12ef3b10$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhicAxRwUn1xmqraDhJOuCt92Y5EqVUvzs-h5yWVhuiaQ@mail.gmail.com>

On 24 January 2016 at 17:19, spike  wrote:
> Ja.  Before it becomes a viable notion to create a Dyson shell or MBrain,
> the builders would already need replicating assemblers (we might think.)
> Alternative: without replicating assemblers, the progress on the MBrain
> would be too slow to map a change on our timescale.  Second alternative:
> construction on the MBrain began, then the replicating assembler was
> discovered, at which time the transition (causing the dimming) kicked into
> high gear.  Problem: that we should happen to catch that transition in
> progress is quite unlikely.
<snip>
>

The criticism of a Dyson shell that I have read is (as you suggest)
that the civ would have already mastered nanotech, fusion energy, etc.
so that they would not need to use the sun energy. So they would have
better things to do with their resources than building an enormous
Dyson shell.

There are probably several things going on with this peculiar star,
that cause the radiation to vary.

BillK


From anders at aleph.se  Sun Jan 24 18:53:53 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016 18:53:53 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Cryonics punched cards and the brain
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv0jx2Dx9F_DQ2yUa9wt2z_10-YxkEgBb_7ziiULVBVhDw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2kYDDkfKT98AS96m4GNmRbmTFc_hPmL2zZEOKJxnoiMQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56A4C86F.9060004@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0jx2Dx9F_DQ2yUa9wt2z_10-YxkEgBb_7ziiULVBVhDw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56A51DC1.7040702@aleph.se>

On 2016-01-24 16:30, John Clark wrote:
>
> ?
> As I understand it ?
> the extracellular matrix
> ? is?
>  the space between brain cells
> ? and that is where the ?
> perineuronal net?
> ?is located along with a lot of fluid, and the volume of the ?
> extracellular matrix
> ? changes a great deal ?between sleep and wakefulness so the net must 
> be tough enough to resist damage even when things get crowded.  But 
> I'm no expert on this so I may have misunderstood.

Yup, the matrix is a complicated place. It is not as simple as fluid 
plus the net proteins. They are part of it, but there are various other 
components too (basal lamina where the brain connects to connective 
tissue and blood vessels, various glycoproteins linking cells 
mechanically, myelin extensions from Schwann cells etc). And it is 
really important for brain development and responds to neural activity: 
http://cshperspectives.cshlp.org/content/3/1/a005108.full

>
> ? I wish we knew how much redundancy there is in the brain, biological 
> operations are not nearly as reliable as the electronic operations we 
> use in computers so I would guess there must be a lot of
> redundancy
> ? to ensure accuracy.

It might not be a simple number. But generally it is clear that there is 
a fair bit of redundancy given the noisiness of the environment.

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From msd001 at gmail.com  Sun Jan 24 20:11:24 2016
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016 15:11:24 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Cryonics punched cards and the brain
In-Reply-To: <56A51DC1.7040702@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv2kYDDkfKT98AS96m4GNmRbmTFc_hPmL2zZEOKJxnoiMQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56A4C86F.9060004@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0jx2Dx9F_DQ2yUa9wt2z_10-YxkEgBb_7ziiULVBVhDw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56A51DC1.7040702@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdb+BjED=284hiLwUog3M+es4ecapyAs177odX+xNDjnX1A@mail.gmail.com>

On Jan 24, 2016 1:55 PM, "Anders Sandberg" <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> It might not be a simple number. But generally it is clear that there is
a fair bit of redundancy given the noisiness of the environment.

I wonder if redundancy is an appropriate word to use.  I'm not
criticizing,  more adding to the distinction.  Some schema of RAID uses
redundancy for fault tolerance.  Weather prediction uses multiple models
with slightly different assumptions to generate possible outcomes,  then
takes some "best fit" among the data.  While in the first case we might
have such perfect hardware that a mirrored state is unnecessary,  i would
need some assurances before I committed my mind to "redundancy
elimination."  In the second case, how many/few predictive models do we
need to feel confident that we know where the world's threats will be in
the next moment/minute/day?

Junk DNA was proposed as unnecessary too.  Now we're learning that it isn't
junk, but simply not active.  Who knows what impact it would have to remove
what was previously believed to be useless dna when a section is switched
on but had been removed?  (Yes,  i know genetics is not electrical
engineering)

I'd like to keep my "redundant" parts. Evolution has had many generations
trading resource allocation between liability and necessity.  I'm still in
a "wait & see" on technological improvement on Nature. :)
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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Sun Jan 24 22:39:57 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016 23:39:57 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhicAxRwUn1xmqraDhJOuCt92Y5EqVUvzs-h5yWVhuiaQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mhqrkhwiia0txxh12b7aqcn7.1453614737615@email.android.com>
 <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se> <008101d156cb$5ba513b0$12ef3b10$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhicAxRwUn1xmqraDhJOuCt92Y5EqVUvzs-h5yWVhuiaQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFQ9x85JMX_4jMbhZoNRG_Tuk00UHW+XVsHV0zQ9RNjcjA@mail.gmail.com>

> What would be the odds of catching that at its current stage?

Since we saw many hot exo-jupiters, it's quite conceivable that one of them
came too close and has been  dismantled by gravity of its star recently -
isn't prohibitively small.

Still, the Anders' expanation is even a bit better. That a cloud of the
interstellar dust - a free and dense Oort clud or something like that, has
met that star.

More we look, more such particles we see around.  I would bet on something
like that.

Dyson sphere it's pretty much out of the question, since they would be
building it also here by now.

On Sun, Jan 24, 2016 at 7:22 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On 24 January 2016 at 17:19, spike  wrote:
> > Ja.  Before it becomes a viable notion to create a Dyson shell or MBrain,
> > the builders would already need replicating assemblers (we might think.)
> > Alternative: without replicating assemblers, the progress on the MBrain
> > would be too slow to map a change on our timescale.  Second alternative:
> > construction on the MBrain began, then the replicating assembler was
> > discovered, at which time the transition (causing the dimming) kicked
> into
> > high gear.  Problem: that we should happen to catch that transition in
> > progress is quite unlikely.
> <snip>
> >
>
> The criticism of a Dyson shell that I have read is (as you suggest)
> that the civ would have already mastered nanotech, fusion energy, etc.
> so that they would not need to use the sun energy. So they would have
> better things to do with their resources than building an enormous
> Dyson shell.
>
> There are probably several things going on with this peculiar star,
> that cause the radiation to vary.
>
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From col.hales at gmail.com  Sun Jan 24 23:44:32 2016
From: col.hales at gmail.com (colin hales)
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 10:44:32 +1100
Subject: [ExI] Cryonics punched cards and the brain
In-Reply-To: <56A4C86F.9060004@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv2kYDDkfKT98AS96m4GNmRbmTFc_hPmL2zZEOKJxnoiMQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56A4C86F.9060004@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <56a561eb.c800620a.34872.2933@mx.google.com>

A really informative YouTube by sejnowski on the 3d structure of neuropil that also leads to the extracellular matrix. 40-110nm thick. Sheet/tunnel matrix. 

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FZT6c0V8f



-----Original Message-----
From: "Anders Sandberg" <anders at aleph.se>
Sent: ?24/?01/?2016 11:51 PM
To: "extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org" <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Cryonics punched cards and the brain

Neat. Generally LTP is seen as the first of a longer cascade of fixation of memories. Most research has been about cellular skeleton changes, but perineuronal nets might also work. 

It might actually be a good experiment for cryonics to see what the process does to these nets. (I think John mixed up the perioneuronal net (protein networks) with perineuronal space in the sleep reference. )


Incidentally, the Sejnowski lab had a nice result on the distribution of synaptic strengths:
Bartol, T. M. Jr. Bromer, C. Kinney, J. P. Chirillo, M. A. Bourne, J. N. Harris, K. M. Sejnowski, T. J. Nanoconnectomic upper bound on the variability of synaptic plasticity, eLife, 4:e10778, 2015 

http://papers.cnl.salk.edu/PDFs/Nanoconnectomic%20upper%20bound%20on%20the%20variability%20of%20synaptic%20plasticity%202015-4475.pdf
They show that each synapse stores at most about 4.7 bits. While their press material claims this is "an order of magnitude more" than previous estimates, the actual estimate most people have been doing is about one bit, so the difference isn't dramatic. But doing nanoconnectomics is an awesome method.


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Mon Jan 25 00:33:38 2016
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016 19:33:38 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFQ9x85JMX_4jMbhZoNRG_Tuk00UHW+XVsHV0zQ9RNjcjA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mhqrkhwiia0txxh12b7aqcn7.1453614737615@email.android.com>
 <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se>
 <008101d156cb$5ba513b0$12ef3b10$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhicAxRwUn1xmqraDhJOuCt92Y5EqVUvzs-h5yWVhuiaQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQ9x85JMX_4jMbhZoNRG_Tuk00UHW+XVsHV0zQ9RNjcjA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFgLBivNT4SJ4qcrRc7xZytBDszUv2XSjuT2WuG=WW980Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Jan 24, 2016 at 5:39 PM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
wrote:
>
>
> Dyson sphere it's pretty much out of the question, since they would be
> building it also here by now.
>
>
### Yes, absolutely. In the most likely situation, if we see a single Dyson
sphere being built, there would be an astronomical number of Dyson spheres
built in the past. The odds of just catching the first ever Dyson sphere
being built among trillions of star systems that are under our observation
are minuscule. By "under observation" I include stars in other galaxies,
which would show global changes in luminance, spreading from local centers,
and we would see millions of galaxies in various stages of being overrun by
diverse aliens. Plus, of course, chances are that some aliens would have
visited here already.

On the other hand, fluke natural variations of luminosity are just that -
fluke variations, which do not imply other high-frequency, visible
processes. If this particular star is being covered up by a rare break-up
of a planet, or a rare conjunction of dense dust clouds, or other rare but
standard physical processes, there is no reason to expect that others stars
should commonly exhibit similar behavior (this is a tautology).

To summarize:

One alien implies a gazillion aliens.

One rare dust cloud does not imply a gazillion dust clouds.

Failing to see a gazillion aliens means it's very unlikely you will ever
see a single alien, so any news about single aliens have to be met with a
very high level of skepticism, whether they dim stars or do anal probing.

Rafa?
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Jan 25 16:13:38 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 11:13:38 -0500
Subject: [ExI] new ninth?
In-Reply-To: <56A4C696.5000405@aleph.se>
References: <00cd01d153d3$11983e50$34c8baf0$@att.net>
 <56A4C696.5000405@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv1PrxgpUjTKRgGtAfMi-fWbrXvmjxS8mzqFcR17sXd1ZA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Jan 24, 2016 at 7:41 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

>
> http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/01/feature-astronomers-say-neptune-sized-planet-lurks-unseen-solar-system
>
> ?> ?
> Would it actually count as a planet? I seem to recall that the
> Pluto-killing definition includes "has cleared its orbit of planetesimals".
>

?I've never quite understood ?that definition. Neptune hasn't cleared its
orbit of Pluto so why is Neptune a planet?

  John K Clark
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Mon Jan 25 16:47:51 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 08:47:51 -0800
Subject: [ExI] new ninth?
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1PrxgpUjTKRgGtAfMi-fWbrXvmjxS8mzqFcR17sXd1ZA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00cd01d153d3$11983e50$34c8baf0$@att.net>
 <56A4C696.5000405@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv1PrxgpUjTKRgGtAfMi-fWbrXvmjxS8mzqFcR17sXd1ZA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5E6FAAF1-DCB7-4F54-A1BE-B6731FC4C67F@gmail.com>

On Jan 25, 2016, at 8:13 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
>> On Sun, Jan 24, 2016 at 7:41 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> 
>>> http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/01/feature-astronomers-say-neptune-sized-planet-lurks-unseen-solar-system
>>> 
>> ?> ?Would it actually count as a planet? I seem to recall that the Pluto-killing definition includes "has cleared its orbit of planetesimals".
> 
> ?I've never quite understood ?that definition. Neptune hasn't cleared its orbit of Pluto so why is Neptune a planet? 

This one I agree with you on. And let's say by some change another currently accepted planet's orbit became uncleared -- say the asteroid belt shifted into Mars orbit -- would it be scratched from the list of planets?

And how clear is clear? There are Mars-crossing asteroids now, to stick with my example.

I don't see why the decision couldn't have been along the lines of:

There are three types of planets we now know of:
1. Rocky ones like Earth and Mars,
2. Gassy ones like Jupiter and Neptun, and
3. Icy ones like Pluto.

I don't see why 1 plus 2 alone must be planets, must be where Nature made the joints, while 3 is not.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Jan 25 17:55:02 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 12:55:02 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se>
References: <mhqrkhwiia0txxh12b7aqcn7.1453614737615@email.android.com>
 <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0CXbPiBZO6ixTYsRrShbGYY0BY2J4U-WtR1WhbJZs5Tg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Jan 24, 2016 at 7:28 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

?>?
>  I originally argued that the star is unlikely to be a Dyson because of
> the rapid construction (or decay); the chance of seeing that moment in
> history is small:
> http://aleph.se/andart2/space/likely-not-even-a-microdyson/
> So I was happy with the comet hypothesis. But the dimming doesn't fit at
> all, so it has to be something stranger.
> Meanwhile Phil Plait claimed the dimming was too *fast* to be Dyson
> construction, and I felt obliged to calculate some limits on Dyson
> construction:
>
> http://aleph.se/andart2/space/what-is-the-natural-timescale-for-making-a-dyson-shell/
> So what do I think it is? I suspect it is natural, but perhaps a rare
> phenomenon. Maybe there is a small and dense cloud of interstellar dust
> drifting past?


?
I agree, I
? ?
think it's probably
? ?
something odd but natural. It's a F3 star that is brighter than our G2 sun
and as a result it has a shorter lifetime.
? ?
The sun will remain on the main sequence for about 10 billion years but a
F3 will leave the main sequence in only
? ?
about
? ?
2.5 billion years and become unstable. If the sun were a F3 and the Earth
were in a larger orbit around it in the habitable zone Evolution would have
had enough time to produce bacteria but then the sun would have vaporized
the
? ?
bacteria and the
??
entire planet
? ?
as well
? ?
a billion years before the Cambrian Explosion even started.
?
?
And if it's a Dyson Sphere it's odd we can't pick up any intelligent radio
signals from it; the star is only 1
?,?
480 light years away and the Arecibo Observatory could detect a similar
instrument 50,000 light years away but we don't hear a peep. People have
looked with optical telescopes
?for
 flashes of LASER light coming from the vicinity of the star and haven't
found those either.

 John K Clark
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Jan 25 18:31:16 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 13:31:16 -0500
Subject: [ExI] new ninth?
In-Reply-To: <5E6FAAF1-DCB7-4F54-A1BE-B6731FC4C67F@gmail.com>
References: <00cd01d153d3$11983e50$34c8baf0$@att.net>
 <56A4C696.5000405@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv1PrxgpUjTKRgGtAfMi-fWbrXvmjxS8mzqFcR17sXd1ZA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5E6FAAF1-DCB7-4F54-A1BE-B6731FC4C67F@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2MZWsrgEzfjFShmLiVAjLbRGdF4ApzOKQy3fh6Oa_yJA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Jan 25, 2016 at 11:47 AM, Dan TheBookMan <danust2012 at gmail.com>
wrote:

?> ?
> I don't see why the decision couldn't have been along the lines of:
> There are three types of planets we now know of:
> 1. Rocky ones like Earth and Mars,
> 2. Gassy ones like Jupiter and Neptun, and
> 3. Icy ones like Pluto.
> I don't see why 1 plus 2 alone must be planets, must be where Nature made
> the joints, while 3 is not.
>

The dividing line between planet and non-planet is always going to be
somewhat arbitrary. I think astronomers were worried that if we included #3
as telescopes get bigger (no thanks
? ?
to
? ?
religious Hawaiians) we could end up with hundreds or even thousands of
planets. And that's too many for third graders to learn.

 John K Clark
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Mon Jan 25 18:51:32 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 10:51:32 -0800
Subject: [ExI] new ninth?
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2MZWsrgEzfjFShmLiVAjLbRGdF4ApzOKQy3fh6Oa_yJA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00cd01d153d3$11983e50$34c8baf0$@att.net>
 <56A4C696.5000405@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv1PrxgpUjTKRgGtAfMi-fWbrXvmjxS8mzqFcR17sXd1ZA@mail.gmail.com>
 <5E6FAAF1-DCB7-4F54-A1BE-B6731FC4C67F@gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <9BFF2D81-A59D-4995-8930-4D4645E44362@gmail.com>

On Jan 25, 2016, at 10:31 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Mon, Jan 25, 2016 at 11:47 AM, Dan TheBookMan <danust2012 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> 
>> ?> ?I don't see why the decision couldn't have been along the lines of:
>> There are three types of planets we now know of:
>> 1. Rocky ones like Earth and Mars,
>> 2. Gassy ones like Jupiter and Neptun, and
>> 3. Icy ones like Pluto.
>> I don't see why 1 plus 2 alone must be planets, must be where Nature made the joints, while 3 is not.
>  
> The dividing line between planet and non-planet is always going to be somewhat arbitrary. I think astronomers were worried that if we included #3 as telescopes get bigger (no thanks? ?to? ?religious Hawaiians) we could end up with hundreds or even thousands of planets. And that's too many for third graders to learn.

That, sadly, does appear to have been the initial motivation.

And I agree that it seems arbitrary, though many distinctions are more taking a fuzzy boundary and setting a threshold. I've no problem with that, though, in this case, it seems like the threshold was gerrymandered to keep Pluto-like objects off any final tally of planets.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From anders at aleph.se  Mon Jan 25 19:23:36 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 19:23:36 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv0CXbPiBZO6ixTYsRrShbGYY0BY2J4U-WtR1WhbJZs5Tg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mhqrkhwiia0txxh12b7aqcn7.1453614737615@email.android.com>
 <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0CXbPiBZO6ixTYsRrShbGYY0BY2J4U-WtR1WhbJZs5Tg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56A67638.1000404@aleph.se>


On 2016-01-25 17:55, John Clark wrote:?
> ?
> And if it's a Dyson Sphere it's odd we can't pick up any intelligent 
> radio signals from it; the star is only 1
> ? ,?
> 480 light years away and the Arecibo Observatory could detect a 
> similar instrument 50,000 light years away but we don't hear a peep. 
> People have looked with optical telescopes
> ? for
>  flashes of LASER light coming from the vicinity of the star and 
> haven't found those either.

Even more compelling is the absence of IR emissions. If it had been a 
Dyson shell we should have seen a fraction of the stars luminosity 
reradiated in the IR spectrum. Aliens might keep silent for alien 
reasons, but it is hard to cheat thermodynamics.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From spike66 at att.net  Mon Jan 25 21:44:17 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 13:44:17 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <56A67638.1000404@aleph.se>
References: <mhqrkhwiia0txxh12b7aqcn7.1453614737615@email.android.com>
 <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0CXbPiBZO6ixTYsRrShbGYY0BY2J4U-WtR1WhbJZs5Tg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56A67638.1000404@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <00ed01d157b9$8b6edd80$a24c9880$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg?

 

On 2016-01-25 17:55, John Clark wrote:?

?

>>?And if it's a Dyson Sphere it's odd we can't pick up any intelligent radio signals from it; ?


>?Even more compelling is the absence of IR emissions. If it had been a Dyson shell we should have seen a fraction of the stars luminosity reradiated in the IR spectrum. Aliens might keep silent for alien reasons, but it is hard to cheat thermodynamics. 

-- 
Anders Sandberg
 
 
Anders, on the contrary sir.
 
If the notion I suggested is correct, that any MBrain would by thermodynamic necessity reflect low entropy energy in a specific direction away from us, it would appear as an anomalous lack of IR radiation.  I haven?t been able to prove it, but the original notion was the discovery that an MBrain would overheat eventually, unless the most of the energy is reflected, and it has to all be in mostly one direction.  
 
I do encourage others to work out that solution independently from my calcs, or find a disproof (which would be better for MBrain fans.) The original discovery was made in late summer of 2013.  
 
Recall that sequence: discovery that if you reflect most of the energy (and momentum) of a star in the same direction, you can move an entire star and its associated planets.  From there I went to calculate if the nodes in the reflected light path would overheat.  From there I discovered a way to turn them so they would not overheat.  From there I discovered that the entire swarm would overheat eventually if we do not reflect the light in one direction, then take the action previously suggested for those nodes In the reflected light path.
 
If an MBrain were doing that, to us it would appear as dimming with an anomalous lack of IR signature.  This might be indistinguishable from an intervening dust cloud distant from the star.
 
Damn.
 
spike
 
 
 
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From anders at aleph.se  Mon Jan 25 22:23:31 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 22:23:31 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <00ed01d157b9$8b6edd80$a24c9880$@att.net>
References: <mhqrkhwiia0txxh12b7aqcn7.1453614737615@email.android.com>
 <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0CXbPiBZO6ixTYsRrShbGYY0BY2J4U-WtR1WhbJZs5Tg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56A67638.1000404@aleph.se> <00ed01d157b9$8b6edd80$a24c9880$@att.net>
Message-ID: <56A6A063.5050503@aleph.se>

On 2016-01-25 21:44, spike wrote:
>
> If the notion I suggested is correct, that any MBrain would by 
> thermodynamic necessity reflect low entropy energy in a specific 
> direction away from us, it would appear as an anomalous lack of IR 
> radiation.  I haven?t been able to prove it, but the original notion 
> was the discovery that an MBrain would overheat eventually, unless the 
> most of the energy is reflected, and it has to all be in mostly one 
> direction.
>

OK, I'll look into it later. Eric D and me may have some proper research 
time for working out megascale engineering  later this spring. Thanks 
for the breadcrumb trail.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Tue Jan 26 01:02:38 2016
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 17:02:38 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Marvin Minsky died
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB79Xf1eGUBo8AsBnPn9s5kp-K_et6qQizcWg0OpEAJQbw@mail.gmail.com>

Alcor is having a bit of a problem getting access to his body.  If
there are any list readers in the Boston area who might be able to
help, you can call me 626-264-7560 or Alcor 800-367-2228

Keith


From spike66 at att.net  Tue Jan 26 00:56:55 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 16:56:55 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <56A6A063.5050503@aleph.se>
References: <mhqrkhwiia0txxh12b7aqcn7.1453614737615@email.android.com>
 <56A4C37B.8020401@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0CXbPiBZO6ixTYsRrShbGYY0BY2J4U-WtR1WhbJZs5Tg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56A67638.1000404@aleph.se> <00ed01d157b9$8b6edd80$a24c9880$@att.net>
 <56A6A063.5050503@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <015d01d157d4$745732d0$5d059870$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Subject: Re: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck

 

On 2016-01-25 21:44, spike wrote:



>>. If the notion I suggested is correct, that any MBrain would by
thermodynamic necessity reflect low entropy energy in a specific direction
away from us, it would appear as an anomalous lack of IR radiation.  I
haven't been able to prove it, but the original notion was the discovery
that an MBrain would overheat eventually, unless the most of the energy is
reflected, and it has to all be in mostly one direction.  


>.OK, I'll look into it later. Eric D and me may have some proper research
time for working out megascale engineering  later this spring. Thanks for
the breadcrumb trail. -- Anders Sandberg

 
 
Oh wait, no way.  I post an idea, which results in Anders Sandberg and Eric
Drexler looking into it.  Whoa!  Anders, I am in awe of myself!  Thanks man.
You made my day.  
 
Do pass along to Eric D my greetings and that I haven't forgotten that he is
the guy who may have saved my life on 8 August 1999.  See if he remembers
that time or even what he and Christine did that day.  I am pretty sure it
had a much bigger impact on me than it did on him.  {8^D
 
Here's what I think I discovered: you can go with an enthalpy approach, or
an entropy approach, and get a lower limit to the amount of reflected energy
(one approach is conservation of energy based and the other is conservation
of momentum based.)  Of course it could all be wrong.  It would be cool to
propose it to some Matlab-enabled engineering and physics students.
 
spike
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Tue Jan 26 01:31:45 2016
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 17:31:45 -0800
Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 148, Issue 11
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB6CsN-bbodD69g8p1g+uqj-f3pP5AuXG5EG56YYNCy8vw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Jan 25, 2016 at 5:02 PM,  Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> Even more compelling is the absence of IR emissions. If it had been a
> Dyson shell we should have seen a fraction of the stars luminosity
> reradiated in the IR spectrum. Aliens might keep silent for alien
> reasons, but it is hard to cheat thermodynamics.

Consider what we could see with a mirror 10 light minutes across.

One of the arguments used against it being alien mega structures is
the lack of IR.  That's kind of funny when you consider we are far
along with the James Webb telescope.  Looking into a giant telescope
like JW (or certain kinds of power satellites) we would not see excess
IR.

Also the star has been dimming for a century, perhaps as they build
out a Dyson Sphere or telescopes.

Not likely I agree, but the lack of IR is as much evidence against a
natural light blocker.

Keith


From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Tue Jan 26 01:04:12 2016
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 20:04:12 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Minsky has died
Message-ID: <201601260133.u0Q1XlIe012014@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/26/business/marvin-minsky-pioneer-in-artificial-intelligence-dies-at-88.html 


I knew Marvin was in poor health. And he was 88. And I really didn't 
know him that well. But somehow this news is more of a gut punch than 
the other deaths this month, even as I'm making plans to go to David 
Hartwell's funeral. Maybe it's the cumulative effect.

Marvin was of the three people Asimov ever conceded was smarter than 
he was. Which is a pretty good achievement. (Fred Pohl was another. 
Sometimes he swapped in a third name.)

I think I first met him in 1980, in the SFWA Suite at the World 
Science Fiction Convention (aka Worldcon, specifically Noreascon 2).

He had decided to study humor. And developed a theory that, he 
proudly expounded, explained jokes that prior theories couldn't. 
Marvin told one. It wasn't funny.

I thought *that* was funny. Or maybe meta-funny.


-- David.



From giulio at gmail.com  Tue Jan 26 04:54:03 2016
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Tue, 26 Jan 2016 05:54:03 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Minsky has died
In-Reply-To: <201601260133.u0Q1XlIe012014@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201601260133.u0Q1XlIe012014@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <CAKTCJycZF-7B7rBCzfxTxk5kxuYLDz8RysihO4+Q9bzUrLObTg@mail.gmail.com>

Very sad news.

On Tue, Jan 26, 2016 at 2:04 AM, David Lubkin <lubkin at unreasonable.com> wrote:
> http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/26/business/marvin-minsky-pioneer-in-artificial-intelligence-dies-at-88.html
>
> I knew Marvin was in poor health. And he was 88. And I really didn't know
> him that well. But somehow this news is more of a gut punch than the other
> deaths this month, even as I'm making plans to go to David Hartwell's
> funeral. Maybe it's the cumulative effect.
>
> Marvin was of the three people Asimov ever conceded was smarter than he was.
> Which is a pretty good achievement. (Fred Pohl was another. Sometimes he
> swapped in a third name.)
>
> I think I first met him in 1980, in the SFWA Suite at the World Science
> Fiction Convention (aka Worldcon, specifically Noreascon 2).
>
> He had decided to study humor. And developed a theory that, he proudly
> expounded, explained jokes that prior theories couldn't. Marvin told one. It
> wasn't funny.
>
> I thought *that* was funny. Or maybe meta-funny.
>
>
> -- David.
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From erights at gmail.com  Tue Jan 26 04:21:54 2016
From: erights at gmail.com (Mark Miller)
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 20:21:54 -0800
Subject: [ExI]  Marvin Minsky died
Message-ID: <CAK5yZYi2xzAzk=NJowioBwyLa41_t6PY4xT2EJD16Y_4jB2XSw@mail.gmail.com>

> Alcor is having a bit of a problem getting access to his body.  If
> there are any list readers in the Boston area who might be able to
> help, you can call me 626-264-7560 or Alcor 800-367-2228

Hi Keith,
First, if you are in a time critical situation, ignore this message. No
response needed.

I am not in the Boston area and know few people who are. But what is the
nature of the problem? If you'd prefer to respond privately, email
erights at gmail.com.

--
  Cheers,
  --MarkM
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From anders at aleph.se  Tue Jan 26 11:26:45 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 26 Jan 2016 11:26:45 +0000
Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 148, Issue 11
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB6CsN-bbodD69g8p1g+uqj-f3pP5AuXG5EG56YYNCy8vw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB6CsN-bbodD69g8p1g+uqj-f3pP5AuXG5EG56YYNCy8vw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56A757F5.9020301@aleph.se>



On 2016-01-26 01:31, Keith Henson wrote:
> One of the arguments used against it being alien mega structures is 
> the lack of IR. That's kind of funny when you consider we are far 
> along with the James Webb telescope. Looking into a giant telescope 
> like JW (or certain kinds of power satellites) we would not see excess 
> IR.

Actually, the Webb telescope is radiating a lot of IR in most 
directions. It is only the the business end that is cold.

[ If you have an object of finite temperature and radiate its IR into a 
fraction of the sky, the total volume where it is detectable (assuming 
some fixed detection threshold) actually increases! ]



-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue Jan 26 18:42:42 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Tue, 26 Jan 2016 13:42:42 -0500
Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 148, Issue 11
In-Reply-To: <56A757F5.9020301@aleph.se>
References: <CAPiwVB6CsN-bbodD69g8p1g+uqj-f3pP5AuXG5EG56YYNCy8vw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56A757F5.9020301@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2JiL_7YdWOs=tvA7uzbbFaJ1=L5EWXQ=mdzdrz_z0Hcw@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Jan 26, 2016 at 6:26 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

>
?> ?
> Actually, the Webb telescope is radiating a lot of IR in most directions.
> It is only the the business end that is cold.
>

?
I don't see why that would be. A parabolic dish will focus the IR light
hitting the dish from the outside but it won't focus the blackbody IR
emitted by the dish itself due to its temperature. from a distance a dish
should look indistinguishable from a disk provided they were both at the
same temperature and size and they were both silver, or if they were both
black. With the Webb the outside
?IR?
 will be reflected and will heat the detector at the focus and thus
creating more blackbody IR that the  distant observer will see, although I
concede at a
??
*slightly* longer wavelength.  So OK it would look slightly cooler because a
?t?
the business end
? ?
the detector would be in the distant observer's
?
 line of sight and at other directions it would no
?t be?
, but I think the reflected IR would be far weaker than the blackbody IR.
? So they'd be *almost* indistinguishable. ?

? John K Clark?
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From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com  Wed Jan 27 08:34:06 2016
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Wed, 27 Jan 2016 08:34:06 +0000 (UTC)
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv0CXbPiBZO6ixTYsRrShbGYY0BY2J4U-WtR1WhbJZs5Tg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv0CXbPiBZO6ixTYsRrShbGYY0BY2J4U-WtR1WhbJZs5Tg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <1826307893.866672.1453883646806.JavaMail.yahoo@mail.yahoo.com>


>________________________________
> From: John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com>
>To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> 
>Sent: Monday, January 25, 2016 9:55 AM
>Subject: Re: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
>
>?I agree, I? ?think it's probably? ?something odd but natural. It's a F3 star that is brighter than our G2 sun and as a result it has a shorter lifetime.? ?The sun will remain on the main sequence for about 10 billion years but a F3 will leave the main sequence in only? ?about? ?2.5 billion years and become unstable. If the sun were a F3 and the Earth were in a larger orbit around it in the habitable zone Evolution would have had enough time to produce bacteria but then the sun would have vaporized the? ?bacteria and the ??entire planet? ?as well? ?a billion years before the Cambrian Explosion even started.?


Yes, I agree that the lifespan of F3 stars is problematic for the ET hypothesis. But interestingly enough there is an overlooked data point that isn't being reported in the media. If you look on page 7 of the original article, the authors are 99% confident that KIC 8462852 has a small companion star. The original article can be found here:

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1509.03622v2.pdf

They say it is a class M3 red dwarf of about 0.4 solar masses and is located 1.95" ~ 885 AU ~ 0.014 LY from the F3 star.

While it may contributing to a "natural" explanation by perturbing objects orbiting the F3, I bring it up for a different reason. Red dwarfs are some of the longest lived stars in the universe with lifespans of trillions of years, therefore the companion star could be older than our sun. It is possible that a civilization could have evolved in the red dwarf system and then made the short hop to the F3 for big energy. After all an 885 AU crossing would be relatively easy for any civilization capable of Dyson technology.  
>And if it's a Dyson Sphere it's odd we can't pick up any intelligent radio signals from it; the star is only 1?,?480 light years away and the Arecibo Observatory could detect a similar instrument 50,000 light years away but we don't hear a peep. People have looked with optical telescopes 
>?for flashes of LASER light coming from the vicinity of the star and haven't found those either.


If they exist, why would they have pointed their transmitters at us? We have only had radio for about a century, so they can't possibly have heard us yet. I agree ET is an unlikely scenario here, but it is certainly fun to think about. I for one am looking forward to May 2017 when the Kepler will again be aligned with Tabby's Star. Until then, I imagine astronomers are going to "science the shit out of this" to quote The Martian.
 

Stuart LaForge

"We speak for Earth. Our obligation to survive is owed not just to ourselves but also to that Cosmos, ancient and vast, from which we spring." - Carl Sagan



From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Jan 27 18:07:19 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 27 Jan 2016 18:07:19 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Monster Machine Cracks The Game Of Go
Message-ID: <CAL_armgHCYaGLHkEMyhJLcmpvM_iV-UW4apu-6zBufpjTjHnXQ@mail.gmail.com>

Monster Machine Cracks The Game Of Go
By Philip E. Ross Posted 27 Jan 2016

http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/computing/software/monster-machine-defeats-prominent-pro-player
A computer program has defeated a master of the ancient Chinese game
of Go, achieving one of the loftiest of the Grand Challenges of AI at
least a decade earlier than anyone had thought possible.

The programmers, at Google?s Deep Mind laboratory, in London, write in
today?s issue of Nature that their program AlphaGo defeated Fan Hui,
the European Go champion, 5 games to nil, in a match held last October
in the company?s offices.

The program?s victory marks the rise not merely of the machines but of
new methods of computer programming based on self-training neural
networks.
-------------

BillK



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Wed Jan 27 18:39:49 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Wed, 27 Jan 2016 13:39:49 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Monster Machine Cracks The Game Of Go
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgHCYaGLHkEMyhJLcmpvM_iV-UW4apu-6zBufpjTjHnXQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armgHCYaGLHkEMyhJLcmpvM_iV-UW4apu-6zBufpjTjHnXQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv38Y1=rGupnSw+n0j=1PpHV-m+hGHyKn1Pgmkut-G5kSQ@mail.gmail.com>

Very cool! It looks like the AI skeptics were wrong.

  John K Clark

On Wed, Jan 27, 2016 at 1:07 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> Monster Machine Cracks The Game Of Go
> By Philip E. Ross Posted 27 Jan 2016
>
>
> http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/computing/software/monster-machine-defeats-prominent-pro-player
> A computer program has defeated a master of the ancient Chinese game
> of Go, achieving one of the loftiest of the Grand Challenges of AI at
> least a decade earlier than anyone had thought possible.
>
> The programmers, at Google?s Deep Mind laboratory, in London, write in
> today?s issue of Nature that their program AlphaGo defeated Fan Hui,
> the European Go champion, 5 games to nil, in a match held last October
> in the company?s offices.
>
> The program?s victory marks the rise not merely of the machines but of
> new methods of computer programming based on self-training neural
> networks.
> -------------
>
> BillK
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sat Jan 30 17:57:12 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 2016 12:57:12 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Political correctness run amuck
Message-ID: <CAJPayv28CQN35itOd8e0vu_2iAADdaKjcM0F6B=OOKfza8G+mg@mail.gmail.com>

?The scourge of ?p
olitical correctness has hit Richard Dawkins yet again. Just days before he
was to give the keynote speech at The Northeast Conference on Science and
Skepticism (NECSS)
? ?
he was
? ?
disinvited because
? ?
Professor
? ?
Dawkins retweeted a
? ?
song in a
? ?
video making fun of both Islam and
? ?
radical
? ?
feminism.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecJUqhm2g08

He tweeted the link with this caveat "Obviously this doesn't apply to the
vast majority of feminists, among whom I count myself. But the minority is
pernicious". Soon afterward he learned that the woman in the song was based
on a real woman who had allegedly been threatened online for her
activities, so Professor Dawkins sent another tweet "Having learned that
the woman in the joke song is a real person who has been disgracefully
threatened with violence, I'm deleting my tweets.
? ?
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE don't EVER threaten anyone with violence. We should be
free to use comedy/ridicule without fear it may inspire violence".
Nevertheless the
? ?
humorless
? ?
moral paragons at NECSS kicked him out because it was
? ?
racist;
? ?
although given the fact that neither muslims nor women are examples of races
? ?
NECSS was
? ?
unable
? ?
to specify
? ?
what race the song was making fun of. Apparently
? ?
The Northeast Conference on Science and Skepticism
? i?
s also skeptical of the value of logic as were the people who were outraged
a few years ago when Professor
? ?
Dawkins wrote "Mild pedophilia is bad. Violent pedophilia is worse. If you
think that's an endorsement of mild pedophilia, go away and learn how to
think."

 John K Clark
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Sat Jan 30 23:30:22 2016
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 2016 18:30:22 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Political correctness run amuck
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv28CQN35itOd8e0vu_2iAADdaKjcM0F6B=OOKfza8G+mg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv28CQN35itOd8e0vu_2iAADdaKjcM0F6B=OOKfza8G+mg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFjZi4x5cjcB4HybarEmCA5-b4=CcXcB+2=SVunyVPoSag@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jan 30, 2016 at 12:57 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> ?The scourge of ?p
> olitical correctness has hit Richard Dawkins yet again.
>

He shouldn't have apologized. It only emboldens the enemy. Cold contempt
works better.
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun Jan 31 00:21:38 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 2016 18:21:38 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Political correctness run amuck
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFjZi4x5cjcB4HybarEmCA5-b4=CcXcB+2=SVunyVPoSag@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv28CQN35itOd8e0vu_2iAADdaKjcM0F6B=OOKfza8G+mg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFjZi4x5cjcB4HybarEmCA5-b4=CcXcB+2=SVunyVPoSag@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEa_LU1qXrTBoBjqu1W2TH+UiP58erH5__hjLd742D7u7Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jan 30, 2016 at 5:30 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> On Sat, Jan 30, 2016 at 12:57 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> ?The scourge of ?p
>> olitical correctness has hit Richard Dawkins yet again.
>>
>
> He shouldn't have apologized. It only emboldens the enemy. Cold contempt
> works better.
>
> ?Thomas Jefferson, always ragged about his Negro mistress, claimed to have
never denied anything at all.  He said it just gave credence to the story.
bill w?


> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Jan 31 17:58:16 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 2016 17:58:16 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Robot cats for companionship
Message-ID: <CAL_armhQ5TvMsKJffK2NOG6MYZKa3o42GB1iUh=1H6f7TmV0Hw@mail.gmail.com>

Hasbro has announced a robot cat aimed at companionship for old folk.
It only costs 100 USD, so it doesn't do much more than purr when
stroked, meow and roll over occasionally.
The next few generations should be more capable.
(Catching mice???).  :)

The robot seal pup Paro that has already been produced for dementia
patients costs 5,000 USD, so the cat has a lot of competitive space
for improvements.

Video here:  (4mins).
<http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20160129-are-these-robot-cats-cute-or-creepy-watch-this-and-decide>

Review here:
<http://uk.businessinsider.com/hasbro-companion-pet-robotic-cat-review-a-strange-but-fun-stuffed-animal-2015-11>

BillK


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun Jan 31 18:12:22 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 2016 12:12:22 -0600
Subject: [ExI] phobia again - NYT
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYiSAoepzcr0AeVhRw3V=1sgsuG6-JYo0qeFHtVE3BwNg@mail.gmail.com>

The NYT magazine has a story about xenophobia, strongly following what I
posted a few weeks ago.

Before I write a comment to them, let me ask this:

Is 'phobia' in your mind tied to neurosis or mild mental illness?  Or has
it entered the mainstream and can be used, like 'fatphobia', without
implying a mental disease?

The article agrees with us that -phobia is mostly incorrect when one really
means 'hate'.

bill w
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Jan 31 18:25:45 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 2016 13:25:45 -0500
Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
	=?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>

http://www.wired.com/2016/01/googles-go-victory-is-just-a-glimpse-of-how-powerful-ai-will-be/?mbid=nl_13116


 John K Clark
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From anders at aleph.se  Sun Jan 31 19:04:30 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 2016 19:04:30 +0000
Subject: [ExI]
 =?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
 =?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se>

On 2016-01-31 18:25, John Clark wrote:
> http://www.wired.com/2016/01/googles-go-victory-is-just-a-glimpse-of-how-powerful-ai-will-be/?mbid=nl_13116

Around here the big topic has been how much this implies about future AI 
progress. Much has been made of that domain experts were suprised by how 
fast it went, but given Armstrong & Sotala's results, I would not be too 
shocked: experts are bad at prediction.

I think Eliezer has a relevant point: he is concerned that "Human neural 
intelligence is not that complicated and current algorithms are touching 
on keystone, foundational aspects of it." - i.e. we may have found a 
general tool in deep learning that reduces the "to do" list of AGI by at 
least one line (out of an unknown number).

More practically I think the Wired article gets things right: this is a 
big deal commercially. Solving tricky value functions is worth money - 
and if they do generalize to hand-eye coordination, then we will have a 
practical robot revolution. But even merely software good value 
functions might be a huge deal when applied to logistics and other kinds 
of planning. Or advertising.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From anders at aleph.se  Sun Jan 31 19:11:04 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 2016 19:11:04 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Robot cats for companionship
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhQ5TvMsKJffK2NOG6MYZKa3o42GB1iUh=1H6f7TmV0Hw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhQ5TvMsKJffK2NOG6MYZKa3o42GB1iUh=1H6f7TmV0Hw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56AE5C48.9020707@aleph.se>

The Paro robot is amazingly hard not to pet. It does not take much to 
make us humans cuddle stuff.

The real question is what it takes to construct high-level 
companionship. Cuddling is a direct physical/emotional activity. Hiroshi 
Ishiguro has been exploring transmitting/creating presence using his 
Telenoid (plus, earlier, telepresence using a Geminoid). But doing 
things like friendly chatting or sitting together may still be tricky.

I was recently in a great conversation with a scholar about the future 
of relationships, where we tried to figure out how much can be predicted 
about making emotional and social connections to robots. Sexbots are 
hard enough, but systems that could develop good enough socioemotional 
bonds are really tricky given our human uncanny valley response - yet, 
as many people show, there are always some people who bond to the 
strangest entities.

On 2016-01-31 17:58, BillK wrote:
> Hasbro has announced a robot cat aimed at companionship for old folk.
> It only costs 100 USD, so it doesn't do much more than purr when
> stroked, meow and roll over occasionally.
> The next few generations should be more capable.
> (Catching mice???).  :)
>
> The robot seal pup Paro that has already been produced for dementia
> patients costs 5,000 USD, so the cat has a lot of competitive space
> for improvements.
>
> Video here:  (4mins).
> <http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20160129-are-these-robot-cats-cute-or-creepy-watch-this-and-decide>
>
> Review here:
> <http://uk.businessinsider.com/hasbro-companion-pet-robotic-cat-review-a-strange-but-fun-stuffed-animal-2015-11>
>
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From avant at sollegro.com  Sun Jan 31 04:48:12 2016
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 2016 20:48:12 -0800
Subject: [ExI]  Gaian Bottleneck
Message-ID: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>

Sorry about the strange formatting but for some reason, the email I sent from my Yahoo account did not get through to the list.

Stuart LaForge

Sent from my phone.

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Fw: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
From: The Avantguardian <avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com>
To: avant <avant at sollegro.com>
CC: 



From: The Avantguardian <avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com>; 
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>; 
Subject: Re: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck 
Sent: Wed, Jan 27, 2016 8:34:06 AM 



>________________________________
> From: John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com>
>To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> 
>Sent: Monday, January 25, 2016 9:55 AM
>Subject: Re: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
>
>?I agree, I? ?think it's probably? ?something odd but natural. It's a F3 star that is brighter than our G2 sun and as a result it has a shorter lifetime.? ?The sun will remain on the main sequence for about 10 billion years but a F3 will leave the main sequence in only? ?about? ?2.5 billion years and become unstable. If the sun were a F3 and the Earth were in a larger orbit around it in the habitable zone Evolution would have had enough time to produce bacteria but then the sun would have vaporized the? ?bacteria and the ??entire planet? ?as well? ?a billion years before the Cambrian Explosion even started.?


Yes, I agree that the lifespan of F3 stars is problematic for the ET hypothesis. But interestingly enough there is an overlooked data point that isn't being reported in the media. If you look on page 7 of the original article, the authors are 99% confident that KIC 8462852 has a small companion star. The original article can be found here:

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1509.03622v2.pdf

They say it is a class M3 red dwarf of about 0.4 solar masses and is located 1.95" ~ 885 AU ~ 0.014 LY from the F3 star.

While it may contributing to a "natural" explanation by perturbing objects orbiting the F3, I bring it up for a different reason. Red dwarfs are some of the longest lived stars in the universe with lifespans of trillions of years, therefore the companion star could be older than our sun. It is possible that a civilization could have evolved in the red dwarf system and then made the short hop to the F3 for big energy. After all an 885 AU crossing would be relatively easy for any civilization capable of Dyson technology.? 


>And if it's a Dyson Sphere it's odd we can't pick up any intelligent radio signals from it; the star is only 1?,?480 light years away and the Arecibo Observatory could detect a similar instrument 50,000 light years away but we don't hear a peep. People have looked with optical telescopes 
>?for flashes of LASER light coming from the vicinity of the star and haven't found those either.




If they exist, why would they have pointed their transmitters at us? We have only had radio for about a century, so they can't possibly have heard us yet. I agree ET is an unlikely scenario here, but it is certainly fun to think about. I for one am looking forward to May 2017 when the Kepler will again be aligned with Tabby's Star. Until then, I imagine astronomers are going to "science the shit out of this" to quote The Martian.


Stuart LaForge

"We speak for Earth. Our obligation to survive is owed not just to ourselves but also to that Cosmos, ancient and vast, from which we spring." - Carl Sagan 

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From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Jan 31 20:50:27 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 2016 20:50:27 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>
References: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgj-y2+gkU30xKuWijpLx4RKh5y=NShJWQYCKBLqcHbjA@mail.gmail.com>

On 31 January 2016 at 04:48, Stuart LaForge  wrote:
>
> Sorry about the strange formatting but for some reason, the email I sent from
> my Yahoo account did not get through to the list.
>
> Stuart LaForge

This is a known problem.
Your original email did get through to the list. The Exi list server
processed it fine and forwarded it to all list members OK.

The problem is with emails to the list from Yahoo accounts.
List members on gmail find that when they receive list emails
originating from Yahoo accounts, gmail puts them in their Spam folder,
where they may be ignored.
(gmail claims that it is unable to verify the email address so assumes
it is spam).

For the present, it is better to avoid using a Yahoo account to post
to the list.

BillK


From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Jan 31 21:18:18 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 2016 21:18:18 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Robot cats for companionship
In-Reply-To: <56AE5C48.9020707@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armhQ5TvMsKJffK2NOG6MYZKa3o42GB1iUh=1H6f7TmV0Hw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5C48.9020707@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhiBKDqK7=_+fk796FXjCjshGsADBsuR1y5AfqTnzPYyg@mail.gmail.com>

On 31 January 2016 at 19:11, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
> The Paro robot is amazingly hard not to pet. It does not take much to make
> us humans cuddle stuff.
>
> The real question is what it takes to construct high-level companionship.
> Cuddling is a direct physical/emotional activity. Hiroshi Ishiguro has been
> exploring transmitting/creating presence using his Telenoid (plus, earlier,
> telepresence using a Geminoid). But doing things like friendly chatting or
> sitting together may still be tricky.
>
> I was recently in a great conversation with a scholar about the future of
> relationships, where we tried to figure out how much can be predicted about
> making emotional and social connections to robots. Sexbots are hard enough,
> but systems that could develop good enough socioemotional bonds are really
> tricky given our human uncanny valley response - yet, as many people show,
> there are always some people who bond to the strangest entities.
>


I think robot companion animals are less susceptible to the 'uncanny
valley' effect. Humans have lower expectations of animals and are
likely not to mind peculiarities very much. Especially the younger
generation who have grown up dealing with Siri strangeness and
computer quirks. People get upset when they see what appears to be a
'damaged ' human, or a zombie, or an alien pretending to be a human.

There is no need to build a complete cat AI brain to make a companion
cat. Many (most?) animal behaviours can be ignored. Though the Hasbro
cat needs a few more behaviours to make me get one!  :)

But people have different requirements. One Hasbro cat won't fit all.
I see a range of models being developed. A dementia patient needs a
simple model to cuddle.  An older couple want a smarter model with
more interesting behaviours to provide amusement. A younger person
wants the LOLcat model that they have to retrieve from inside boxes
and under furniture.  :)

BillK


From brian at posthuman.com  Sun Jan 31 21:52:37 2016
From: brian at posthuman.com (Brian Atkins)
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 2016 15:52:37 -0600
Subject: [ExI]
 =?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
 =?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <56AE8225.6060808@posthuman.com>

On 1/31/2016 1:04 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
>
> More practically I think the Wired article gets things right: this is a big deal
> commercially.

Right. I find an interesting possible parallel with Bitcoin mining hardware. 
Which obviously has a large economic incentive behind it. Similar to Deep 
Learning tech, it started out as a CPU algorithm and then eventually moved to 
GPUs. But then within a short period of 3 to 4 years now has gone through a 
brief FPGA phase, and after that onto sustained generations of custom ASIC 
designs that now have pretty much caught up to state of the art Moore's Law 
(16nm designs being deployed).

So I would expect something like possibly 3 orders of magnitude power efficiency 
improvements could occur before 2020 as Deep Learning ASICs start to deploy and 
get quickly improved? And more orders of magnitude of total Deep Learning 
computing capability on top of that due to simply deploying more hardware 
overall. Bitcoin mining just recently crossed the exahash/s level... some of 
that due to ASIC improvements, but a lot due to simply more chips being 
deployed. Deep Learning takeoff could be an even quicker timeline than with 
Bitcoin since the companies involved with Deep Learning stuff are much larger 
and better funded.

large disclaimer: I have no technical knowledge of whether there might be some 
major difference between Bitcoin mining's hashing algorithm and Deep Learning's 
typical algorithms that would make DL stuff significantly harder to translate 
into efficient ASICs.