[ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Tue Jan 12 23:27:33 UTC 2016


On 12 January 2016 at 22:29, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> Nope. Looking at
> http://www.artberman.com/wp-content/uploads/Chart_PROD-CONS-2013-15_11-March-20151.jpg
> (based on  http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/tables/?tableNumber=6# )
> shows that consumption is up, while the price is going down. This is easy to
> explain due to the Saudis pumping a lot (and the final breakdown of OPEC?)
> Given the low price I would expect efforts to use less oil will slow over
> the next few years.
>

But the world population is growing and car use is growing about 10%
per year also.
2010 had about 1 billion vehicles.
2020 is estimated to be about 2 billion vehicles.
Current over-production of oil is certainly helping to reduce the
price, but there are other factors in play as well.

BillK



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