[ExI] Critical take on The Age of Em

Robin D Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu
Wed Jun 8 19:54:25 UTC 2016


On Jun 8, 2016, at 3:22 AM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
> I like Robin’s book but disagree on one key assumption. Robin thinks
> that mind uploading is likely to be developed much before sentient AI.

If the future is important enough to make it worth having one hundred books on future scenarios, then it is worth having a book on a scenario with only a 1% chance. We shouldn’t let disagreements over the exact probabilities of different scenarios distract us from exploring many likely scenarios. 

> I think the two are likely to develop at comparable paces with strong
> feedback loops, with advances in one stimulating advances in the other
> (or roadblocks in one creating roadblocks in the other) and reach
> operational maturity at more or less the same time near the end of the
> century, give or take a couple of decades. Robin’s scenario is
> believable if uploading comes soon and sentient AI never follows, but
> I think his assumption is wrong. In my favorite scenario, human
> uploads and AIs co-evolve.

I certainly don’t claim that “sentient AI never follows.”

> 
> On Wed, Jun 8, 2016 at 8:48 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> I didn't read the book. But I know something about it by reading some
>> discussions about it.
>> 
>> My main objection is that some WBE would develop a
>> non-human-brains-based-super-intelligence quite fast. And from there on,
>> everything would change.
>> 
>> I don't think however, that just because of that the book isn't very
>> interesting. I'll read it one day. I would like to see the movie, too!
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> On Tue, Jun 7, 2016 at 9:22 PM, Dan TheBookMan <danust2012 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> 
>>> On Jun 7, 2016, at 11:40 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> 
>>> Mostly silly critique by my view.
>>> 
>>> 
>>> Seems so.
>>> 
>>> (A critique, isn't itself above critique.)
>>> 
>>> 
>>> Not sure if anyone has ever claimed otherwise.
>>> 
>>> This Caplan has no clue.
>>> 
>>> 
>>> I wouldn't go that far. I think Bryan rushed to review the book.
>>> 
>>> Anyhow, good to see Em is getting attention. Anyone here it read it?
>>> 
>>> Regards,
>>> 
>>> Dan
>>>  See my latest Kindle book, "The Late Mr. Gurlitt," at:
>>> http://mybook.to/Gurlitt
>>> 
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>> 
>> 
>> 
>> --
>> https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
>> 
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> 
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Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu 
Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford University
Assoc. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
See my new book: http://ageofem.com













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