[ExI] Predicting the future is really difficult

[BillK]

Takeaway:
A lot of these predictions depend on a very basic methodological
error. They assume that new technology will change the way people live
and work and think and make money—but only in one way. New technology
will revolutionize life in one particular respect, while everything
else will stay the same.

<http://www.realclearfuture.com/articles/2016/10/13/how_not_to_predict_the_future_111945.html>

Quotes:

It's no surprise that futurists tend to do the same thing, and often
for the same motives: wish-fulfillment for their political
preferences. Robots will be doing all of our work for us, they tell
us, so we can finally afford to sit back and enjoy a generous "basic
income" provided by the government. We will have everything powered
with solar energy and batteries and electric cars, so we can finally
shut down the oil companies without having to sacrifice our First
World lifestyle. These are the fondest wishes of those with a certain
cultural or political predisposition, so it is comforting to hear
projections that technology will inevitably deliver these things.

(There is also a perverse mirror image of this, which is that there is
always a market for dystopian predictions which tell us that
technology is going to destroy us, as we always knew it would in the
end.)

There is certainly a purpose in asking what would happen if a
technological disruption goes all the way in a certain direction, as a
kind of thought experiment. And sometimes the extreme possibilities
come true, or close to it. How many people predicted, for example,
that the phone call would be in danger of becoming obsolete?

But we should also maintain some skepticism about how likely we really
are to get it right—particularly when our forecasts fall in just a
little too well with our wishes.

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BillK