[ExI] perfect sense in some circumstances... was: RE: Dark Energy and Causal Cells

[William Flynn Wallace]

So, gambling doesn't make sense...unless you believe you can win?  Sounds
familiar.

Still a statistical belief; still a value judgment.  Same reason many/most
people gamble, because they think they have an edge somehow.  Fail to see
how your example is any different.  will wrote

Yeah, beliefs can go crazy.  Lucky this and that - clearly superstitions.
I am talking about virtual certainties - in the long run.  If we are dicing
and you are betting on 4s and 10s, then I will beat you in the long run -
no question.  Fact, not belief.  Luck, to me, is simply beating the odds,
which can be done in the short run.  Not in the long.

My favorite advice to students - don't repeat your mistakes.  Belief in
your ability to beat odds is surely a mistake.  Often a fatal one.  Or
costly.  Have you read A Random Walk on Wall Street?  Don't invest without
doing so.

bill w

On Mon, Jan 8, 2018 at 12:07 PM, Will Steinberg <steinberg.will at gmail.com>
wrote:

> On Wed, Jan 3, 2018 at 12:56 PM, William Flynn Wallace
>> <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> > ...no gambling makes any sense (unless you,
>> > like me, are on a boat full of volunteer firemen who have no clue as to
>> the
>> > odds on rolling dice, and are just as likely to bet on a 4 as a 6 -
>> cleaned
>> > them out in less than a hour...
>
>
> So, gambling doesn't make sense...unless you believe you can win?  Sounds
> familiar.
>
> Still a statistical belief; still a value judgment.  Same reason many/most
> people gamble, because they think they have an edge somehow.  Fail to see
> how your example is any different.
>
>
>
>
>
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>
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