[ExI] Benchmarking the Singularity

David Lubkin lubkin at unreasonable.com
Sat Jul 20 01:39:53 UTC 2019

Stuart wrote:

>But brain size is just a scaling issue and if Moore's law continues
>then it should just be a matter of time right? Well if total neuron
>number is the important metric than by extrapolating Moore's law, a
>questionable thing I know, then we should neuron number parity in
>about 45 years. But in terms of human-AI parity between the
>connectivity of individual neurons, we are only about 5 years out.
>Taking the average of the given range of 5 to 45 years, is 25 years.
>But this assumes that Moore's law continues unabated. On the other
>hand, the emergence of quantum computing stands to disrupt everything,
>so who is to say what effect it will have on the timetable until the

Interesting that while the predictions for 
achieving viable nuclear fusion have remained 
equidistant for many years—certainly unchanged 
since I worked in magnetic fusion at LLNL ~35 
years ago—the predicted Singularity date has 
remained pretty constant at roughly 2035 since we 
started talking about it all those years ago, in 
the earliest days of the old list, and before.

-- David.

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