[ExI] Black Swan event.

[Keith Henson]

On Tue, Jun 11, 2019 at 1:23 PM (spike at rainier66.com) wrote:

snip

> We know the term Black Swan event, something that is so terrible there is little point in even pondering the consequences.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_event

The event results may be terrible, but that's not part of the definition.

Based on the author's criteria:

"The event is a surprise (to the observer).
The event has a major effect.
After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by
hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant
data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs.
The same is true for the personal perception by individuals."

.> An example: a meteor strikes earth, of sufficient size to kick up
dust and debris causing mass extinctions and 99% of humanity to suffer
a horrifying painful mass death.

Given the K/T extinction, not certain this would be that much of a
surprise, though it would surprise me if a K/T event hit at 8 am
tomorrow.

> Cold fusion is the opposite of a black swan event: if that ever worked out, it would solve so many of humanity?s most fundamental problems so cheaply and easily, there is little we could not accomplish.  It would be the new dawn of humanity.

I think you might be overvaluing low temperature steam.

snip

> What term could we use for the opposite of a black swan event?

Not really needed.

It would be kind of interesting to list events unexpected enough to be
called black swan events.

Keith