[ExI] Black Swan event.

William Flynn Wallace foozler83 at gmail.com
Wed Jun 12 17:30:02 UTC 2019

We need another word. 'Unpredictable' is usually used incorrectly.  You can
predict anything:

The 2078 Baseball World Series will be played in Manila and won by the
Tokyo Dragons.  A black swan event will occur tomorrow in my back yard,
featuring curious white swans and a lonely iguana.

Point is, you cannot predict certain things *accurately*, rather than not
at all.

I suggest 'unknown'   bill w

On Wed, Jun 12, 2019 at 8:39 AM BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Wed, 12 Jun 2019 at 04:34, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_event
> >
> > The event results may be terrible, but that's not part of the definition.
> >
> > Based on the author's criteria:
> >
> > "The event is a surprise (to the observer).
> > The event has a major effect.
> > After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by
> > hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant
> > data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs.
> > The same is true for the personal perception by individuals."
> >
> > It would be kind of interesting to list events unexpected enough to be
> > called black swan events.
> >
> I don't think you can do that.  :)
> Black swan events are rare and thought to be impossible (until they
> actually happen).
> Although, - Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible
> things before breakfast. ― Lewis Carroll
> Perhaps Grey Swan events would cover that situation.
> Nomura's Bilal Hafeez writes, while he would like to be able to
> predict black swans, by definition that is impossible. "However, its
> close cousin the grey swan can be foreseen. These are the unlikely but
> impactful events that, in our opinion, lie outside the usual base case
> and risk scenarios of the analyst community.
> ------------------------
> For example, hurricanes are not Black Swan events - they are not
> unexpected.
> But an especially severe hurricane that maybe effectively wiped out a
> city would be a Grey Swan.
> BillK
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