[ExI] Poised for defeat?

John Grigg possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com
Sat Oct 5 10:37:27 UTC 2019


 "Today, however, such a deployment would no longer elicit the same
response in a potential adversary. In part, the change reflects the closing
of the enormous technological advantage the U.S. Navy had enjoyed for
decades over any realistic rival. New classes of quiet diesel submarines
and new developments in mine and torpedo technology make operations close
to tense coastlines far more dangerous today than in the past. As a result,
U.S. aircraft carriers are no longer immune from risk when entering waters
within range of enemy forces."

“In today’s Navy, the aircraft carrier has become ‘too big to sink,’” wrote
Navy Lt. Jeff Vandenengel, a submariner, in a provocative article
<https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017/may/too-big-sink> in the
U.S. Naval Institute’s journal *Proceedings* two years ago. “Yet the Navy
remains blind to the reality that its carriers—by way of destruction,
damage, or deterrence from completing their missions—are poised for defeat
in battle.”

As the technological edge the U.S. has with it's military, continues to
slip, what should America do to maintain the advantage? If Iran, a second
or third tier rival, is a problem for us, how do we prepare for a possible
conflict with a resurgent China? Do we improve the range and stealth
capacity of our anti-ship missiles? Build more advanced drones for
destroying enemy aircraft, missiles, aquatic mines and subs? Create a new
form of stealth tech, should China's "quantum radar" prove to be effective?
Install laser weapons on all our larger vessels, to stop hordes of incoming
planes and missiles? Build more destroyers, to lessen the urgent need to
use our carriers? Deploy massive rail guns for very long range bombardments
(which could be nice for leveling artificial islands in the South China
Sea)? Have a 21st century return to the battleship, through this
technology? Oh, and what about improving private corporate security
measures, so our research and development efforts are not stolen by China's
very effective espionage machine?

I have a Russian "frenemy" online, who would mock me by saying the problem
with the American military industrial complex, is that it throws huge
amounts of money at various weapons programs, but the private companies who
take up the contracts, are not fully held accountable. And so after a vast
budget is spent, they may not have any real solid results, to show for it.


China's "president for life," wishes to see his country essentially be the
world's foremost superpower, by 2049, which will be the 100th anniversary
of the regime. I suspect by then China will have attempted an invasion of
Taiwan, which within a decade or two, would be very difficult for the U.S.
and her allies to resist, due to their arms build-up. The PRC is deploying
a vast sensor array at the bottom of the ocean, around Taiwan, to detect
enemy subs. And drone torpedoes would make those waters extremely hostile
for American and alliance subs and surface ships... China has built bunkers
on their coastline, armed with literally thousands of anti-ship missiles,
to overcome the defenses of incoming American carrier task forces.

The PRC understands that unless they have air and sea domination, that
their vulnerable invasion force of naval transports, crammed with troops
and tanks, will be slaughtered, causing a huge humiliation to the regime.
But we would be fighting them in their own frontyard, which gives them a
huge homefield advantage.

And then their longterm plan (as explained in leaked war college documents)
is to use a captured Taiwan as a chokehold over the ocean trade routes of
Japan. Our greatest ally in the region at that point, could be brought to
their knees by a PRC naval blockade.

I think a takeover of Taiwan, by the PRC is inevitable, but it may be
decades until it can be achieved. And China may wish to patiently bully
them into submission, rather than risk so much, by an invasion. But then
again, a successful invasion of Taiwan would shout to the world that China
had finally arrived as an undisputed superpower, that even the United
States, with her allies, could not stop.

What are your thoughts?

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/30/the-u-s-navy-isnt-ready-to-take-on-iran/?utm_source=PostUp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=15284&utm_term=Editor#39;s%20Picks%20OC

John
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