[ExI] vaccine maybe

[spike at rainier66.com]

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Sent: Tuesday, November 10, 2020 8:43 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>; wk <wkidston at outlook.com>
Cc: BillK <pharos at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] vaccine maybe

On Tue, 10 Nov 2020 at 15:28, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> OK cool sounds like a vaccine for covid is on the way.
>
> How many here plan on getting immediately?  I don’t: I am in a very 
> low lifestyle.  At this point I judge my risk of getting that vaccine 
> higher than my risk of not.  My entire family is low-contact at this point.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


I plan to be cautious and wait about a month after a vaccine becomes available.
I'd like to see what side effects happen first and how effective it is.
(The annual flu jab only offers about 50% protection).
The Pharma companies are rushing to be first past the post so as to get huge profits while insisting on a no-sue clause in their contracts. Pfizer has an experimental mRNA-based vaccine which is unique so far.
The best suggestion I've read is that the super-spreaders should get it first - *not* the most vulnerable. The elderly and most vulnerable are more likely to react badly to whatever side-effects appear.



BillK

_______________________________________________


I am in that camp too BillK: I will get the vaccine when it has been around for about a month or two, probably still before the risk balance is equal but there are societal benefits to having more data.

What we need is some kind of scale to estimate negative side effects.  For instance, I get the flu shot every year (for about the past 15 yrs) and have only caught once since then.  Cool!  Side effect, very slight if any.

However... I took the shingles vaccination, oh mercy.  I was so sick both times, it was worse than a typical flu both rounds, the second one perhaps worse than the first.  After it was over, my doctor told me those are only good for about 10 yrs, owwww damn.

Regarding shutdowns, Florida ended its shutdown on 26 September.  At that time, the 7 day rolling averages, the most logical way to average the daily numbers, were new cases in Florida: 


New cases per day in Florida on 26 September:  2492
New cases per day in Florida on 10 November: 5109

Factor change in new cases in Florida after end of shutdown:  2.05

New fatalities per day in Florida on 26 September:  104
New fatalities per day in Florida on 10 November: 50

Factor change in fatalities in Florida after end of shutdown:  0.48



New cases USA on 26 September :  41716 
New cases in USA 10 November:  117552

Factor change in new cases in USA after end of Florida shutdown:  2.82

New cases USA on 26 September :  764  
New cases in USA 10 November:  1001

Factor change in fatalities in USA after end of Florida shutdown:  1.31



New cases world on 26 September :  41716 
New cases in world 10 November:  117552

Factor change in new cases in world after end of Florida shutdown:  1.91

New cases world on 26 September :  764  
New cases in world 10 November:  1001

Factor change in fatalities in world after end of Florida shutdown:  1.58



We know that the new case rate is a function of testing: that one is guesswork really:

Ratio of covid new case rates in Florida before and after end Florida shutdown: 2.05
Ratio of covid new case rates in USA before and after end Florida shutdown: 2.82
Ratio of covid new case rates in world before and after end Florida shutdown: 1.91


OK so...  the new case rate, which has a short signal time: doubled in Florida and world, nearly tripled in USA.  

Fatality rate, which we know (from China data) takes 64 days from caught it to bought it:


Ratio of covid fatality rates in Florida before and after end Florida shutdown: 0.48
Ratio of covid fatality rates in USA before and after end Florida shutdown: 1.31
Ratio of covid fatality rates in world before and after end Florida shutdown: 1.58


Tentative conclusion: shutdowns don't help much in catching vs not catching.  We need to wait another 18 days before we can determine whether masks are effective in influencing the fatality rate.

Good luck to us.

spike