[ExI] sturgis - washington post
spike at rainier66.com
spike at rainier66.com
Mon Oct 19 15:26:19 UTC 2020
From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com>
Subject: RE: [ExI] sturgis - washington post
> On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat
>>... The number comes from the suspected number of people who caught at the
> rally. If you take half million-randomly chosen yanks and compare to
> the number traceable to the rally, it appears the rally catch rate was about half the average.
>...Apples and oranges, don't you think? Unless Sturgis rally attendees are like a random sample of US-Americans (what you mean by 'yanks' and not, say, New Englanders)...
Dan it might be this is one of those cases where the simplest answer is mostly the best explanation. You may have been the one to bring it to the table, I don’t recall who it was, but it goes to this simple notion: the Sturgis crowd isn’t really comparable to the average citizenry.
Reasoning: no one must go to Sturgis. It is a big fun party, but no one has an appointment there, just a big fun vacation destination. People go as individuals or pairs, not really like a family member in a carload or mini-van load. Nearly everyone going is an adult, nearly all with enough idle capital to have an RV (of sorts (I count a motorcycle as a toy.))
Simple observation: the Sturgis crowd isn’t really a representative cross section of America. Anyone on the way to Sturgis had the option of turning around and going home if she wasn’t feeling well, or of not starting out if she wasn’t up to the rigors of sleeping on the ground in a tent for a week, or of sitting on a bike with wind blowing in one ear and out the other for several days. I don’t ride when I am not feeling well either.
Result: the crowd arriving at Sturgis was more healthy on average than a randomly chosen half million proles.
Result: even without masks or precautions, there wasn’t much spread of covid at Sturgis because there was less of it there to start with.
It’s a simple explanation that sounds more plausible than anything else I have heard. Dan, does that sound about right to you?
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