[ExI] sturgis - washington post

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Mon Oct 19 21:58:28 UTC 2020



From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat


My own club went to Sturgis a little later (by three weeks (they are the

older crowd (even compared to the geriatric Sturgis main event crowd

(so they prefer to not camp on the ground (so they go after the main

event (the few hotels around Sturgis are available then (and I can

cheerfully report that no one caught and no one crashed (I really worry

about this crowd (several are over 80 now.)))))))


>…That's good to hear. Of course, the modeling that seems correct here -- given all the uncertainties -- did point to something like a few hundred people getting infected, so maybe it's not just a good outcome but a very likely one…


Hi Dan, the best estimates I have heard is that somewhere around 260 to 290 were infected at Sturgis during the rally.  Those were the numbers the magazine writers used to figure out the cost of the Sturgis rally was a few trillion dollars (or something.)


The new case rate in the USA during the first coupla weeks of August was around 60k to 70k new cases per day.  If there are about 330 megayanks, in any randomly chosen half a megayank, we should be seeing somewhere around a hundred new cases per day.  Ja?  


We see about 300 or so.  The rally went on for a week, and sure some don’t stay the whole time, but some stay for 10 days or two weeks, but I would be comfortable enough with estimating an average of about 6 to 7 days, so we should have seen about 600 cases.  But we saw about 300.


My best guess on why that happened is pre-selection: the sickies went home before they arrived, which resulted in a healthier than average crowd upon arrival at the rally.  That explanation was one of the first ones proposed.  I resisted it at the time but it is growing on me.  I had vaguely thought the Sturgis rally crowd would be more susceptible to catching than the average yank, being older.  Hard to say: it could be that younger people catch just as easily but it doesn’t amount to much with that group.


For now, I am going with the pre-selection argument.




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